One of the rallying cries of both the pro-Griffey camp and the non-anti-Griffey camp so far has been that, if you take into consideration his poor luck on balls in play, he hasn't been that bad. And on the surface, it's true - through 156 plate appearances, Griffey has a decent number of line drives but a .220 BABIP, ninth-lowest in baseball among 274 hitters with 100 PAs. If you regress that BABIP up towards something more reasonable, then Griffey's batting line very quickly begins to resemble that of a contributing player.
There's a problem with this approach, though. Let's take a look at Griffey's breakdown by hit trajectory:
| Career BA | 2009 BA | Career BABIP | 2009 BABIP | |
| Groundballs | 0.221 | 0.103 | 0.221 | 0.103 |
| Flyballs | 0.232 | 0.191 | 0.093 | 0.130 |
| Line Drives | 0.750 | 0.778 | 0.732 | 0.750 |
Griffey's been unlucky on groundballs, with a BABIP less than half of what it is for his career. On fly balls, he's hit for a worse average but a better BABIP, this being due to his low number of home runs. On line drives, it's pretty much a wash.
So we want to hone in on those grounders, because those are what seem to be holding him back. A .103 BABIP is significantly lower than a .221 BABIP, but is it fair to hold him to that standard? Back in the day, Griffey used to be rather fleet of foot. If you just look at his performance since getting traded from Seattle - around the point when his body started to complain - his BABIP on grounders drops to .190.
.190 is still quite a ways away from .103, but if you regress him up to the former level of performance, then Griffey gains all of three or four hits. Each of them presumably singles. Adding four singles to Griffey's season line puts him at .238/.353/.392, which is pretty much what he did a year ago only with a drop in power output. That's not very good.
I'd like to give Griffey the benefit of the doubt. I'd like to believe that he's better than he's looked. But through nearly a third of the season, he's sitting on ten extra-base hits, with only one homer longer than 375 feet. I'll stop short of making any declarative statements, but the evidence is beginning to mount that Ken Griffey Jr. is finished.
0 recs | 44 comments
Dammit
Aaron Campeau - June 1, 2009
Yup
abender20 - June 1, 2009
Thank you for quantifying this, however.
abender20 - June 1, 2009
He's doing about what I expected him to do
riding not-so-gracefully off into the sunset. I definitely want to be there on Oct 4 for the big sendoff, because not even Griffey can look at what he’s done this season and justify coming back for another go-round.
pdb - June 1, 2009
I hope like hell he sees this himself and just retires.
I shudder to think what the average yay-hoo fan is gonna say when he gets DFA’d.
thewyrm - June 1, 2009
I don't think the M's would take the PR hit of DFA'ing him though
they’re not THAT stupid. They’ll just keep him on the bench, maybe trot him out once a homestand, and call it a career.
pdb - June 1, 2009
It's not like he's killing us
and we don’t even have to do him the indignity of getting DFA’d. We just need to find a way to give some of his at bats to someone younger. Just because it’s difficult doesn’t mean it’s impossible.
Jeff Sullivan - June 1, 2009
Let Jeff Clement put on a minstrel show in a 24 Jersey
abender20 - June 1, 2009
I guess their hitting would be comparable.
Fin - June 1, 2009
And their defense.
Matthew - June 1, 2009
And their connective tissue.
marc w - June 2, 2009
And I really thought he was trending towards a productive year when he was OPSing
about .900 for a stretch there in May. But that 0-21 or whatever it was to finish the month really killed his numbers
Rudy4three - June 1, 2009
I was looking at this the other day and thinking the same thing
His career babip is pretty low to begin with and as he’s lost his speed it’s been trending downward even more. So it’s not like we can expect a huge turnaround from his performance so far.
OlSalty - June 1, 2009
This is "ride into the sunset" season.
I should probably buy tickets to the last home stand, I am sure the Marketing/PR department will make it into some grand event.
Fin - June 1, 2009
Color me confused
And maybe stupid, but
What is the difference between BABIP and BA when looking at these stats?
BQueezy - June 1, 2009
The difference:
Batting average is the percentage of hits per at bat. BABIP is the percentage of hits per balls that are put in play (including outs) and based on plate appearances. BABIP also doesn’t take into account strikeouts wihile BA does.
The Typical Idiot Fan - June 1, 2009
In this case, however, we are already working under the condition that the ball has been put into play via one of the three standard batted ball profiles...
How do you strike out into a fly ball?
abender20 - June 1, 2009
By which I mean to say, add me to the list of now confused.
abender20 - June 1, 2009
Home runs
Balls that go over the fence are hits but aren’t considered in play. Note how the GB BABIPs and BAs are equal.
Milendriel - June 1, 2009
Thank You!
This was my question (I’m not completly retarded, just mildly)
BQueezy - June 1, 2009
griff
He might be done, I can’t say that. He still has that one of a kind swing, and catches up to fastballs, reads the pitchers well enough to draw walks. He is being platooned and is used to playing every day and that could be part of the problem. As for how long his HRs are he is hitting half the time in Safeco and it is still spring, come July, August the ball will travel there further. Don’t count the man out he is no longer the “kid”, but he has always risen to the big stage and their might be a little more left in the tank than we may know. For the record Henry Aaron didn’t hit 450’ bombs he just got them over the fence. Over 700 times!
illbarry - June 1, 2009
He doesn't really catch up to flyballs though.
And he’s being platooned because he can’t hit left handed pitchers at all.
Aaron Campeau - June 1, 2009
*fastballs
Aaron Campeau - June 1, 2009
griff
Gotta disagree with you Blue, I think he can hit left handers fastballs, but Wak has to be able to play everyone, and Griffey goes into his streaks when he gets in the zone. If you a platooning and have days off you have to get it back. For my sake I hope you are wrong because I would wish for him to have a big season and hang it up. He has knothing more tp prove except get a ring.
illbarry - June 1, 2009
He hasn't hit lefties well for years so I doubt he'll pick it up now
Poochie - June 1, 2009
Griffey's last good year was 2007.
He hit .236/.317/.419/.736 vs. lefties. The last season he hit well against lefties was 2005. If he’s able to hit the fastball, that’s all he can hit.
Aaron Campeau - June 1, 2009
His swing looks like absolute ass to my eye.
The motion makes you smile and remember when he was good, but he has no balance and is swinging off his front foot. It makes me cringe.
Teej - June 2, 2009
It has also slowed down.
It’s still a beautiful thing when he does turn on a pitch and drive it, but it hardly makes up for the pain of having to watch his other ABs.
abender20 - June 2, 2009
Only problem is that for every fastball he turns on
he turns on two slow curves and finishes his swing when the ball is still twenty feet from plate
seattlebruin - June 2, 2009
And this is coming from one of the staunched Griffey defenders around here
seattlebruin - June 2, 2009
We're basically polar opposites on who we like, outside of the obvious Felix/Ichiro/Branyan/Bedard group.
abender20 - June 2, 2009
I hate Japanese people so that rules out Ichiro
seattlebruin - June 2, 2009
Father's Day is around the corner
abender20 - June 2, 2009
If by "catching up to fastballs" you mean "striking out and looking hilarious"
then yes, he’s caught up to lots.
seattlebruin - June 2, 2009
And I'm still trying to sort out
what Hank Aaron’s home run distance and total have to do with Griffey’s decline.
pdb - June 2, 2009
You're a racist
abender20 - June 2, 2009
Just to be a devil's advocate here
their might be a little more left in the tank than we may know.
For what might Griffey be saving what may still be in the tank?
pdb - June 2, 2009
It's more that the diptube isn't long enough to reach the bottom of the tank.
waldo rojas - June 2, 2009
ROAD TRIP!!!!!!!!!!
Sec 108 - June 2, 2009
Wait are you really suggesting Safeco is a bad place to hit for power if you're left handed?
Graham MacAree - June 2, 2009
Hank Aaron also looked super finished at the end of his career
seriously. There’s a reason former superstars bounce around at the end. People get old. They start sucking at baseball. It’s part of life, and now it’s Griffey’s turn – right now he’s a first ballot Hall of Famer and a replacement level player.
seattlebruin - June 2, 2009
Not to ignite the steroids debate again
but Aaron, Mays, and now Griffey and David Ortiz are aging the way baseball players used to age before pharmaceuticals – painfully, quickly, and without any sort of flameout. They just stop producing, and yet keep playing.
pdb - June 2, 2009
Actually Hank Aaron was a phenomenal hitter from in his late thirties
and had anything but a normal aging curve.
In fact, he had his best power season at age 39.
Poochie - June 2, 2009
Greenies are ruining the game
Graham MacAree - June 2, 2009
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Lookout Landing to post a comment.