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Lookout Landing

Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies

Seattle: 30-30
Colorado: 28-32

SUMMARY

MARINERS ROCKIES EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)
-41.4 (29th)
9.8 (11th) COL
FIELDING (UZR)
7.1 (10th) -10.2 (23rd) SEA
ROTATION (pRAA)
16.6 (7th) 19.5 (6th) COL
BULLPEN (pRAA)
-9.8 (25th) 4.5 (10th) COL
OVERALL(RAA)
-27.5 23.6 Colorado







The Rockies really are not a bad team, as you can see from the summary above, but man alive has some bad luck and atrocious defense combined to make them bad. It does not help to be playing in the same division as the runaway Dodgers.

 

GAMES

Game 1: Jarrod Washburn* vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
Game 2: Erik Bedard* vs. Jason Marquis
Game 3: Jason Vargas* vs. Jason Hammel

The Colorado hitters have been mashing against lefties so far this year, but they have also been facing National League left handers. This is the big league now boys! You've never seen anyone like Jason Vargas before!

Considering the Rockies line up is mostly right handed, the nature of Coors Field in and of itself, the vast expanse of outfield and the flyball-ness of the three lefty starts that we are tabbing in this series, I would consider it imperative to run out the best defensive outfield that we can. Early whispers are that Ken Griffey Jr. is going to be making some starts in left field. So, Jack... do you want to trade Washburn? Like, right now? I mean literally, do it right now. Before he starts tonight.

Ubaldo Jimenez has been a consistently with solid strikeout numbers and good ground ball rates making up for a touch of wildness. His extra success so far this year rests on his only two home runs allowed so far. He's not this good and it would be fun to see Branyan go all regression on him.

Coming off three really bad years in St. Louis in which he posted tRA+s of 85, 85 and 69, Jason Marquis signed perhaps the dumbest three-year, $21-million contract ever with the Cubs. It was unfathomable how dumb that contract was based on past performance. It makes the Silva decision seem conservative and financially wise. Unlike Silva, Marquis somehow pitched up to the contract, posting tRA+s of 99 and 98 with Chicago totaling $15.1 million in value and then he was dumped off to Colorado for Luis Vizcaino in a salary move. All Marquis has done is get even better in Coors, now with a tRA+ of 106.

Jason Hammel was terrible as a starter in Tampa Bay and pretty damn bad as a reliever too, but he has been fantastic in Colorado, throwing strikes at an absurd rate given his career tendencies. As such, his walk rate which used to hover around 9% is now down to 6%. That is quite a marked improvement.

Star-divide

THIS SERIES BROUGHT TO YOU BY:

Ten FIDY
Oskar Blues Grill & Brew. Lyons, CO

Do not be afraid of beers in cans. Be afraid of shitty beers in cans, of which this isn't one. This is the blackest pour I have ever seen and it comes with an aroma of smoke, roasted malts and dark chocolate. The taste showcases the malts that give way to a little alcoholic/bitter kick fading into a slight coffee/bitter taste which quickly mellows.

0 recs  |  261 comments

Comments

Rockies fan here...

over from Purple Row.

A couple of comments:

The Rockies’ lineup has five lefthanded bats much of the time—Fowler (switch, but better left), Helton, Hawpe, Stewart, and Gonzalez/Seth Smith…so it really isn’t mostly right-handed. I’d go the opposite way actually. The thing that has helped the Rockies is that Hawpe, Stewart, and Smith have had very good reverse platoon splits vs. LHP.

However, we do have a couple of hot righty bats in Barmes and Tulowitzki as well as a heavily underrated Iannetta behind the plate. Ever since the Rockies benched the horrible Garrett Atkins, we’ve gotten better production across the board.

As for pitching, Marquis has been pitching over his head and Hammel’s success has mostly come on the road. I think you’ll be surprised by just how good Jimenez’s stuff is though…he’s going to be really good, and soon (he’s got 2.2 WAR so far this year).

In addition, there are quite a few fine microbreweries in Colorado, most namely New Belgium (Fat Tire, Sunshine Wheat, etc.) if you’re interested.

Here’s our scouting report on the Mariners. Feel free to enlighten us if we’re wrong in our evaluation.

They're likely to be running out a mostly RH lineup against our LH starters.

I am quite aware of the beers in Colorado.

T/F:

Oskar Blues>Avery

F

I think Oskar Blues is slightly better at the top end but they have nowhere near the depth of Avery.

I can ride this trolley.

I will say though that for every style both brewers make I prefer the Oskar Blues version.

Yeah, pretty much. It's just that OB only makes about four things I like

TF, OC, Gordon and Dales whereas Avery is around 10-15.

We are in agreement.
Avery also gets bonus points for making some holy fuck beers (>15% ABV) that are good.
Sweet mother they made an oak aged sour cherry Imperial stout that was 16%.

They only produced eight gallons :(

Damn it.
That's a quarter of a barrel!
I have sketched out my next three beers and for one of them I am thinking ramping up a brown ale

with a lot more malt and then port barreling it.

I was turned off by oaking by my first attempt, but in retrospect, trying to drink it right after bottling was too optimistic. Two months later and it’s quite good. And by latest batch gives me proof of concept in terms of my ability to high ABV (11%) brew.

You need to start your own brewery someday.
Maybe, someday.
I'll sell it for you.
That whole Beast/Meph/Sam series is shockingly drinkable and delicious
Likely lineup may sub in Spilborghs for a LH outfielder...

and maybe Atkins at 3rd. However, considering that Stewart has a much better OPS against lefties and his hot streak, this might not happen. The fact is that the Rockies’ bats are mostly left-handed (Spilborghs and Atkins are the only right-handed bats off the bench that they use).

New Belgium is a microbrewery?

They must be paying a lot of OT to the line operators.

By the industry accepted definition of microbrewery not even Oskar Blues would qualify.
And they shouldn't.
How much do they produce?
~20k barrels were estimated to be produced in 2008.

So they might fall under the heading of microbrewery used for tax purposes (I believe it is 50,000) but not for practical purposes (which I believe is 15,000.)

Last time I took the tour, they said they were classified as "Hand Crafted Regional"
Don't take this the wrong way but not knowing about New Belgium is like not knowing about Sam Adams.

They’re as broadly distributed as anything that doesn’t get advertised during football games.

Oh, and we’ll go toe to toe with you on pitchers outperforming their peripherals. Unsustainable HR/FB? Silly strand rate? Small sample size dominance? you name your stat, we’ve got the big dog in that fight.

Living in Colorado, I wasn't sure how widely NB was distributed...

consider me educated.

It's pretty dang common

it’s not bad beer, at all, but it’s not exactly “micro”. But any brewery that sponsors cool events like this is awesome by me.

Some of it is bad.

Sunshine Wheat, Blue Paddle, Mighty Arrow and Skinny Dip (obviously because fuck light beer) are all bad. The rest is decent—>good.

I don't mind Skinny Dip so much

but the only time I’ve really had it was after a 100 mile bike ride in 94 degree heat last year, so I could have been drinking refrigerated lighter fluid at that point and it would have been blissful.

I can see it being good on such an occasion because anything heavier might give you the heaves.
You get 1554 up there?

I think that’s the best NB

We get everything they make.

Lips of Faith is the best New Belgium I’ve had but 1554 is probably my favorite of their regular line.

FYI: LoF is a series
I'll be jiggered.
The Kriek is not so impressive.
Up to 7 now, I think

Bottleworks had 3 of them on the shelves today.

Relatedly, if you’re into sours, the New Belgium Bottleworks 10th Anniversary Ale is amazing.

It appears that this beer was had and not shared with me.
I've yet to figure out how to share beer over the internet

It’s on tap at both Brouwer’s & Bottleworks, though.

Oh, sorry, that wasn't directed at you.

I’m sure I can find it, I’m just also sure that I was close to having it.

Don't they make Mothership Wit also?

I like that one.

Yes, Mothership Wit is a great one.

Its organic too, if that means anything.

Disagree on Arrow, which I think is good-ish.

Sunshine is meh the other two I find decent-ish

Interestingly enough I don't mind Mothership

which is bizarre.

Shockingly, I'm with Matthew on Mighty Arrow

though I agree with ac that blue paddle, skinny dip, sunshine wheat are bad. Fat Tire is pretty bad.

Incidentally, I don’t mind the idea of light beer, so I don’t hate skinny dip on principle. I actually had sort of high hopes for it, which tasting it quickly dashed.

I have a hard time calling things bad unless I actively cannot drink them.

Jerome Rubia, Anchor Small, Harpoon Rasp UFO, etc

Hmm. Maybe a semantic argument.

I don’t have a problem with calling a beer ‘bad’ if I would prefer 90%+ of all other beers. I would drink Blue Paddle over coffee or, I don’t know, Midori any day, but I think ‘bad’ has its uses to distinguish certain kinds of beer from others.

No, I would agree. I'm not arguing against people doing it.

I’m just saying I cannot seem to.

Oh wait, Seattle-bred.

Duh. That’s why.

Fat Tire is pretty good on tap and averageish in a bottle.

Good beer to re-up at a party.

I believe they are distributed at 23+ states

They could be at 50 but are halting their expansion on purpose. They have a partnership with a brewery in Washington State. They each brew each other’s recipes, or will soon, to cut down on distribution costs. New Belgium will be all over Washington soon

Yes, they have a partnership with Elysian, but they were ubiquitous here long before that.

Seriously, in out-of-the-way gas stations with about 6 beers, you can choose from bud, bud light, miller light, coors light, tecate and Fat Tire. They seem to have better distro than some large craft breweries closer to home… they’re on par with Red Hook, which is fucking insane.

Best use of regression in a sentence, the visual is fantastic!
I've got some Old Chub and the Yella Pils in the fridge right now...

ac/matthew, have you tried their pilsner yet?

Marquis seems to be the beneficiary of a huge increase in o-swing, which is odd as his FB has been his best pitch this year and there’s no sizeable jump in SwStr%. Seems fluke-ish to me. Hammel’s improvement strikes me as more ‘real’ though that may just be a function of age.
Jimenez has gotten better and better while his SwStr% has dropped each year since 2007. This year it’s his Ks looking that are up (along with GBs). I’m looking forward to seeing him.

Let’s go M’s

I have and I was sorely disappointed.

It’s really generic.

There goes my dream of an epic evening of great beer.
Ratebeer seems to disagree with me.

89.1% for style. Perhaps I should try it again sometime.

Hooray for cans!

Had a Ten Fidy last night and will probably do the same this evening. It’s my current passion. I also really like the Old Chub, and I recently found the Mamma’s Little Yellow Pilsner at a restaurant and loved it. Can’t find it in a can, though. (Well, I saw it in a can in Stone Brewing’s gigantic refrigerator, but they said I couldn’t have any.)

As much as I love Ten FIDY Gordon is probably my favorite beer of theirs.
I tend to prefer stouts to strong ales, but I do like the Gordon.
I generally do as well, but I think Gordon is one of the two or three best American strong ales that are readily available

while Ten FIDY is in the top 10 for basic Imperial stouts.

I'm still trying to brave my Ten Fidy after a bit of an incident with Stone Imperial Russian last week.

Earlier this week? Earlier this week.

I had my first Stone Russian Imperial of the year last night

and I have to say it seemed less delicious than usual.

I agreed on first sampling, but second sampling was much better.
Mine lost out to Rouge Imperial, so maybe I need to do the same.
Perhaps it is so different than what I usually drink this time of year I just have to get used to it.

I’ve also had a few 2008 bottles over the past few months which could also negatively color my imprssion.

Why was Stone so mean to you?
It was in storage and not for sale
Everything's for sale.

For the right price.

REAL BASEBALL REAL BASEBALL REAL BASEBALL
I think the word you are looking for is retarded.
REAL! BASEBALL! MOTHERFUCKERS!
If I wanted to watch inept offense I'd watch

aw fuck.

It's amazing that they only give out one championship trophy every year considering the World Series competitors play different sports
It's all politics.
This is what's going through Griffey's head right now
Based on their roster configuration I think Seattle and St. Louis should just trade leagues.
Griffey Bomb, right here.
a bomb that 15 years ago would kill 450 people but now explodes with all the force of a damp firecracker?
That's my pet name for it.
Someone's a wet blanket.
Pretty sure that would be Griffey
spaßverderber
If there's a parade I'm the rain
He's been bombing all season

oh, you mean… right.

How bad is the Rockies pen?

My impression from watching them against the Dodgers recently is that they have a lot of guys who can’t throw strikes to save their lives.

A bullpen that doesn't throw a lot of strikes?

Gosh. I’m glad ours isn’t like that.

How bad you ask?

I only read the comments.
Apologies

I never noticed that you rated the bullpens previously.

See, it's so much clearer with the circles.

Why don’t you just put those on in the first place?

It's right there in the post

by tRA, they’re so bad they’re 14 runs better than us.

It's above average.

And they have the lowest walk rate in all of baseball.

See, there's your problem.

Rockies vs Dodgers:

1-8; 43 RS, 74 RA

Rockies vs. Everyone else:

27-24; 257 RS, 214 RA

Based on the weekend they spent in St. Louis the Rockies are the greatest team of all time.
Except against our overlords from Southern California.

Who we most humbly defer to in all things.

Bow to King Manny.
In my defense

its not like the Rockies are on TV in Los Angeles very often. And while I subscribe to MLB.tv I don’t use it to watch too many non Mariners games.

FWIW, a lot of the bullpen you saw then is now no longer intact...

Grilli, Belisle, and Rusch are gone.

Embree, unfortunately, still remains.
What's with everyone opponents' SBN blogs invading LL?
every opponents'*
What's the problem?
Invading or cordially interacting with?
Tomato, tomahto
I didn't mean invade in a bad way.

I just meant invade as in multiple members of the other teams’ blog come here at once.

There's a difference between the honourable opposition from Colorado and the gaggle of douchebags from Texas
Isn't Texas the team that has that guy that's on drugs?
I heard he got so desperate for crack

that he tried to blow himself for money and then he hurt his ribs.

did he at least get the money?

Because it would be a shame if he had to go without all that delicious crack.

An hour later and I am the first rec for this?
It's called accountability...

You mother’s basement types shouldn’t be able to talk about other mother’s basements types unless you’re willing to talk about it to our virtual faces. Or something like that.

We’ll all leave for our own game thread and just lurk, we see series preview threads as the equivalent of meet-and-greets.

We do need more friends 'round here.
I like friends
Me too.
Friends are my favorite!
Friends of LL

Eyebrows
R.J. Anderson
Purple Row
…?

Eyebrows is being a turncoat.
I have to answer the claims of my supposed Mariner fandom somehow.
Royals Review, McCovey Chronicles

a couple of the better AN posters

This new "rox girl" looks like she might work out OK too

jury’s still out on fo0you

Um, that's one of us.
it's entirely possible that post wasn't really serious
Um, LLers are always serious.
Like you are being there.
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand the jury's in.

That took all of 5 minutes if deliberation.

My spelling has been atrocious of late.
Yeah but most of that's the steroids, be honest
It's hard to type and needle at the same time.
I like this kind of thing.

Wish I happens more often.

Has LL done this lately?
Oskar Blues

The best thing about Oskar Blues in Lyons is the old-school vids they have. Paperboy, Zaxxon, Tron…oh yes, TRON. I never got to play it drunk growing up.

Yet another reason to go!
I haven't played Paperboy in foevah

I loved that game.

I was a Zaxxon guy, myself.
Lineup time!

Ichiro RF
Russ Branyan 1B
Adrian Beltre 3B
Jose Lopez 2B
Endy Chavez CF
Ronny Cedeno LF
Yuniesky Betancourt SS
Rob Johnson C
Jarrod Washburn P

um

whatever.

Ronny!

Ronny!

Still have Yuni though.
I got so excited I missed the rest of this shit fest.
Hahahaha Rob Johnson is back, bitches!
So either Quiroz or Burke are outta here.
Not necessarily.

Johnson wasn’t on the DL. They may make the move tomorrow, but who knows. I know they SAID they wanted another pitcher, but they may not need one tonight.

From Baker's blog just now:

No transaction yet, but I’d expect one of the two other catchers — Guillermo Quiroz or Jamie Burke — to be going down. It might not be today, however, since Roy Corcoran was not anywhere to be seen in the clubhouse.

Are you...taunting...us?
Why, I would never do that!
YUNICYCLE IT GOES ROUND AND ROUND!
Combined weight of our outfield: 505 lbs.
Johnson needs to get hurt for longer next time

Maybe one of the Rockies was a boyhood Mariner fan and can kick him in the head for us.

Johnson Bomb, right here.
I'm sensing a theme today
I had a .492 win percentage on thoughts going into yesterday's game!
Yeah but most of that's the steroids, be honest
This kind of baseless speculation is unwarranted and unethical.
But so much fun!
I know, right!
How far would Russell Branyan hit a hung curveball

in 2000 Coors?

600 feet?

welcome back RJ!

and WTF is Cedeno doing.. put Wlad out there

I don't like you
Yes, well, some might say go Auburn, too.

So hush.

Roll Tide!

(Cedeno can play SS)

I am afraid of what I'll see tonight but I can't turn my back on him.

No one else encourages the poor boy.

At least Dave Cameron doesn't want him flensed.

I’M ALL HE HAS.

This is incorrect.

when i heard ‘Bama was in trouble for textbook violations I thought to myself "but we didn’t read at the U of A"

this makes very little sense and needs a subject line
Please capitalize

use the subject line and use the reply link.

Aye sir

Thank you for educating me in the ways of the intertubes, but in reality it was my konqueror that failed to render this comment box correctly. Thanks regardless ba dum tish

New people shouldn't condescend until they read the rules
This is probably another JI account I'd imagine?
I thought it was butthol
I don't know.

I thought JI = Last Fan of Jose Lopez = Fogel = Poochie = Fo0yu. I do not completely get the meme behind it though.

Nope

fo0you is registered on other sites, all seem to be the same person

OMG

We have a winner!

No chatspeak.
LOL.
He knows what site he's on.
At least I don't use LOLspeak
I fail to see the difference.
don't encourage the (lad/lass)
I've got a half hour to kill at the end of a Friday at work.
Trust me, it's much worse

I'm entirely convinced that every user on here that I haven't met personally is actually one person

or a very cleverly built robot.

That isn't true.

I met a few members from here, including Matthew and Graham. Don’t worry, they are two different people.

You met people that were named Matthew and Graham

but are those the “Matthew” and “Graham” that post here? Have you ever seen Matthew, Graham, and a computer in the same place at the same time? THE MYSTERY DEEPENS

Well, I've seen them both seperately.

They don’t look alike. I also met Gomez, even though he doesn’t post here anymore.

If you were to set up a computer simulation of an active blog

how hard would it be to hire a couple of actors to play characters from the ‘blog’ for a day?
I mean, if you were going to do this right, wouldn’t you do this? It’s not like it’d cost more than a case of beer or so, especially in this economy.

And if you really DID want to go cheap, how tough would it be to create someone to write over-the-top earnest stories of having met several ‘posters’ or ‘mods.’

This really, really elementary shit.

People already do this for a living, on a smaller scale

Astroturfers infiltrate blogs and gain good standing in a community, only to subtly push products/services later.

speaking of which can I interest you in a fine set of encyclopedias?
No you're doing it all wrong.

It’s more like: Hey guys I just got this Palm Pre, it’s so amazing, I can do all these things with it oh man. I love the Palm Pre.

For some strange reason I now desperately want a Palm Pre
I don't even know what that is.
I don't either

Now I’m suddenly wondering about all the phone and computer threads. Holy shit! These GT’s are all about schilling beer! This might go all the way to the top!

....Aaaaand you have to have the conspiratorial 'poster' too
Yeah that helps.
Even I am not sure about that.
I'm actually the part of Matthew's brain that dies every time he drinks
This reminds me of a friend in college

who had a sober and drunk facebook profile.

That would explain the worsening typing skills.
I wonder which one of us will die first
At the $1,000 donation level...
I have so many it's hard to keep them all striaght
My sincerest apologies

Can i send over some garlic fries to make it better?

Fax 'em on over
You mean we can get garlic fries

without having to sacrifice our dignity on TV?

It's a sad day when people realize that their dignity is worth less than an order of deep fried potatoes laden with garlic
I would counter that few, if any, of these people had any dignity to begin with.

How can you lose something you never really had?

Capitalize properly.
This seems Alabama.
Is this politics?
I'll say sure, why not
I don't know.

I thought he just meant that they don’t read because they party there.

Ah, "Alabama." I got it now.
Does no one use Google anymore?

search “fo0you” that’s with a zero? geez guys I’m one of you believe it or not!

Prove it.

Say something only we would know. GO GO GO

Jeff Clement

should never be called up from Tacoma because he is horrible on defense and can’t throw out anyone. what do I win?

undying enmity at the rate you're going
Only if I can I get 2008 Sexon enmity
You're halfway there by misspelling his name.
Sweet. How can I take it all the way?
Vengeance from Graham?
Multiple comments that about your baseball knowledge.
ooopsie daisy
Ugh, again.
Oh good I haven't seen a good snarking lately.
I still haven't seen one

ZING

I hope everyone you love kills themselves via disembowlment and someone forces you to clean it up with your tongue
Don't get me all hot and bothered on a Friday
Yes, I'm terrified of what might happen to me should I get you all hot and bothered
Think you misunderstood "hot and bothered"
Not really

You strike me as the serial pedophile type but since I’m not 12 no worries there

I could also be Rowdy Roddy Piper too

because it’s the internet!

Which obviously gives you leave to be a flaming douchebag as you please
Which means your original comment was what?
The standard response to when the wrong sort of person stumbles onto LL

To put it another way: You don’t know anything about the Mariners, so fuck off.

I'm glad it's the internet, go cry with Geoff
Well this was boring

Bye!

Is this a record for fewest comments before unconditional release?
Not even close
I can imagine some comedic value in collecting all the one-time comments in a single list.
Who and what are you?
Looks like a Times blog commenter.
I thought it was JI.
JI is funny though.
Why would he troll under a fake screenname?
I hope to god this settles this once and for all.

JI has never, ever used an alt.

He stopped using the log in JI because of a technical issue.

Which was my fault
I'd say it was at least equally his own fault.
Think you misunderstood Lookout Landing.
When would you prefer to be hot and bothered?

I would think Fridays would be ideal.

Please use reply.

And I just did that here.

Via Drayer's Twitter feed:
Tornado watch until 9, game delayed until further notice. Lovely.

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