35-34, Chart

by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 21, 2009 11:30 PM PDT in Seattle Mariners Game Recaps

Above .500 with a run differential of -20. This is starting to feel a little familiar.

They say that good teams make their own luck. I don't buy that for a second. Luck, by its very definition, cannot be caused. The thing about luck, though, is that while it can happen to anyone, some teams are able to take more advantage of it than others, and if the short-handed Mariners use things like Clark's error tonight and Hundley's error a few days ago in order to stay afloat, then so be it. You can't make yourself look better by causing good luck, but there's nothing wrong with taking advantage of a little good luck while you wait to get better.

We won. We won with that lineup.

Biggest Contribution: Yuniesky Betancourt, +15.9%
Biggest Suckfest: Chris Woodward, -22.6%
Most Important AB: Clark error, +34.4%
Most Important Pitch: Reynolds homer, -47.3%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): +13.6%
Total Contribution by Lineup: -21.3%
Total Contribution by Opposition: +57.7%
(What is this chart?)

0 recs | 67 comments

Comments

Two things

1) Eight swings and no misses for Mark Reynolds against Felix? For shame.

2) Also this

Jeff Sullivan - June 21, 2009 reply

I hope he stays in the majors for a long time.

Mariner John - June 21, 2009 reply

I like to think of him as the villain in the film version of Eli Whiteside's biography

Jeff Sullivan - June 21, 2009 reply

On my scorecard for the game,

I put “(moustache)” after Zavada’s name. I should have just put him down as Moustache.

appleshampoo - June 22, 2009 reply

I would have put Rolly FIngers.

Fin - June 22, 2009 reply

Mark Reynolds is having one of the weirdest seasons ever.

Goose - June 22, 2009 reply

Mustachioed!

Such impressive facial hair; the rest of the league should take notes.

13194013 - June 22, 2009 reply

I don't know who or what you are but I love you.

Aaron Campeau - June 22, 2009 reply

Is this based soley off his username?

Kirk - June 22, 2009 reply

Total package.

Aaron Campeau - June 22, 2009 reply

I enjoy him.

This is based solely on his name though because 7 comments isn’t quite enough to know if he is a total package yet.

Kirk - June 22, 2009 reply

His avatar makes him for me.

Mariner John - June 22, 2009 reply

Sifl and Ollie!

What a great show.

Craig Powers - June 22, 2009 reply

It's the correct use of the semicolon.

CapSea - June 22, 2009 reply

I wish you had about 20 more frames at the start so Reynolds would be entering stage right just as he exits stage left.

Matthew - June 22, 2009 reply

Felix data

62% strikes, 10.7% swinging strikes

71 fastballs, 9 sliders, 20 changeups, 9 curves, 3 pitches missed by PITCHf/x

6 swinging strikes on the change, 4 on the slider, 1 on the fastball, 1 on the curve

9 grounders, 6 flies, 5 line drives

Jeff Sullivan - June 21, 2009 reply

I'm trying to wrap my head around the use of swinging strikes to evaluate individual starts.

Would it be productive or even possible to create a “weighted swinging strike percentage” (call it “wSSP” or whatever) that factored in the environment (contract rate-related park factors) and the contact percentage of the team the pitcher faces (team contact % ranges from ~75.3% to ~84.6%, and the D-Backs have the second lowest contact rate in the majors at 77.7%) or, probably more accurately, the combined season (or 3 year, maybe) contact % of each hitter in the lineup? It seems like a pitcher should get a good deal more credit for having, say, 10% swinging strikes against the Mets, who have a contact % of 84.6%, than having a 10% swinging strike rate against the Rangers, who have a 75.3% contact % and have Chris Davis regularly in the lineup.

Decatur - June 22, 2009 reply

And then we could turn it around and use it to compare batters

And feel even angrier about having Yuni on the team

Tube - June 22, 2009 reply

You have a point but over a season opposition averages out (unless you pitch in ALE)

and on a per start basis the difference between a 75 and 85% contact rate will be about one StrSw, so if Felix gets ten on a day he wasn’t that sharp it’s still good news. Also, once you start looking that closely at opposition you may as well start looking at lineup handedness and success against pitch types and so on. Diminishing returns.

By the way, if league avg contact rate is ~80%, how is league avg StrSw rate ~8? I think I’m missing something obvious again.

Bearskin Rugburn - June 22, 2009 reply

Different denominators

Contact rate = (fouls+BIP)/swings
StrSw = swinging strikes/pitches

Graham MacAree - June 22, 2009 reply

12.0% swinging strike rate so far this year.

He’s ~equaled his value from all of last year. Dear god I hope Z resigns him.

Zwakamatsu - June 22, 2009 reply

Are those your numbers or Gamedays?

cause they mischaracterize about 1/4 Felix changeups, from what I’ve noticed.

Bearskin Rugburn - June 22, 2009 reply

Mine

Jeff Sullivan - June 22, 2009 reply

Always nice to be able to pull out a win while missing Beltre, Branyan, and Lopez.

gregrabble - June 21, 2009 reply

And each time we pull out a lucky victory, it's gotta help our chances that much more

considering how bad the division is. If we get “lucky” ~10 more times than we’re “unlucky,” that’s gonna swing a division that’s so bad and so close. So hooray!

calim - June 22, 2009 reply

Why is the division 'so bad.' What constitutes a 'bad division'?

We have three teams in our divison over .500. The Central (with one more team) only has one. The two worst records in the AL belong to Central teams. Three teams in our divison have a winning record against the AL East opponents. What is ‘bad’?

greg briley - June 22, 2009 reply

We have no legitimately good team and our division's overall run differential is -30

the AL Central and NL East are also bad.

Jeff Sullivan - June 22, 2009 reply

I'm starting to think that it's more a matter of the AL East being insanely good than it is the AL West and Central being unthinkably bad

seattlebruin - June 22, 2009 reply

I can't believe four of the five best teams in baseball play in one division

Jeff Sullivan - June 22, 2009 reply

If Matt Wieters were really anything special he could do something about this

Jeff Sullivan - June 22, 2009 reply

Good thing he SUCKS

abender20 - June 22, 2009 reply

The Tigers starting pitching ranges from really good to horrific 18 car pile up bad and often times struggle to score.
The White Sox are seven shades of messed up.
The Twins are better than their record.
The Indians campaign is more of a back yard camping trip gone awry.
The Royals remembered they are the Kansas City Royals… but with Gil Meche!

13194013 - June 22, 2009 reply

I forgot to use this field in my previous post.

My apologies.

13194013 - June 22, 2009 reply

True, true. Run differential being a sign of dominance. Don't even get into VORP with the Mariners (or anything else that evaluates talent/lack thereof)...

I guess my only point being that while the division is subpar, it certainly isn’t Journey-cover-band-playing-at-your-favorite-bar-bad…. just karaoke-at-your-cousin’s-wedding-reception-bad. I mean, what did you expect? Any other wedding reception with karaoke is just as bad. That’s my point.

greg briley - June 22, 2009 reply

The whole three teams over .500 thing

is very likely to change by season’s end, when the effects of run differential will be more amplified/stabilized. I hate power rankings but if you were to rank the ML teams in order of likely # wins at season’s end I don’t think the ALW cracks the top ten and I guess average place would be something like 18-20.

Bearskin Rugburn - June 22, 2009 reply

Yes, but it is still early in the season (most teams playing about 70 games)

so it is certain these numbers will change (even in the aggregate) as well. In the end though, at least one AL West team will emerge from this mess and crack the top ten. After all, look how many times that said team will face the Athletics.

greg briley - June 22, 2009 reply