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Lookout Landing

Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Seattle: 37-35
Los Angeles: 47-26

SUMMARY

MARINERS DODGERS EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)
-45.9 (28th)
37.8 (4th) LAN
FIELDING (UZR)
18.1 (6th)
-0.1 (16th) SEA
ROTATION (pRAA)
9.6 (12th) 18.5 (7th) LAN
BULLPEN (pRAA)
-11.7 (24th) 1.5 (14th) LAN
OVERALL(RAA)
-29.9 57.7 Los Angeles







Boy our offense sure took advantage of a weak opponent. That was refreshing. Unfortunately, the pitching also let us down a bit, doubly so when you consider the opponent and venue and as far as RAA is concerned, we made up little ground. Come back, Erik. Come back, Shawn.

 

GAMES

Game 1: Jason Vargas* vs. Clayton Kershaw*
Game 2: Felix Hernandez vs. Eric Milton*
Game 3: Garrett Olson* vs. Hiroki Kuroda

The Dodgers make their hay against lefties. Oops. At least we miss Manny's return.

In his second Major League season, Kershaw has managed to hold onto his stats as a slightly above average pitcher. For a 21-year-old, that is a lofty achievement. The individual pitch results however hint toward adjustments still needing to be made by Kershaw to adapt to the tougher competition. He's throwing balls at a 40% rate now, a dubious percentage to try and maintain effectiveness at. His swinging strike has also dipped a bit. His ground balls are way, way down. Really, the only reason Kershaw has a tRA that looks good is his home run rate, currently at about 4%. That is unlikely to last and tRA* shows Kershaw as being below average this season.

I thought Eric Milton was out of baseball. It turns out he was. A fly ball/line drive pitcher, Milton throws strikes and misses a not embarrassing number of bats.

Hiroki Kuroda was the guy who might have saved us from Carlos Silva. Kuroda posted a 124 tRA+ last year and is at 142 so far this year. Whoops. Kuroda does a good job missing bats with his slider. He is also a rather prolific groundballer. Double whoops.

Star-divide

THIS SERIES BROUGHT TO YOU BY:

Mirror Pond Pale Ale
Deschutes Brewery. Bend, OR

A shout out to a good pale ale and also the beer used as the base for the Mirror Mirror barley wine, which has an exquisite nose. Also, apparently there are some great strip clubs down Portland way, so head down (or up) for a brewery tour

0 recs  |  31 comments

Comments

The Dodgers are 30-38? We may have a chance after all!
Yeah woah, how'd that happen?
They obviously suck without Manny.
It's quite remarkable to lose that many games

while having the 4th best hitting and 7th best starting pitching in the league.

Am I the only one that's terrified of what might happen this series?

I have dreams of a .500 road trip but then I wake up and see the trip starting 0-3 and wonder if it will be possible to break even from there.

I'm excited for this road trip because we'll probably finally have an idea of where the team is going once it's over.

Have a winning record? We’re probably leading the division, or at least very close to the top. Go .500ish? We’re almost certainly still in contention after the toughest part of the schedule. Suck it up and lose a bunch of games? Well that sucks and it’s quite obviously the least attractive, but at least we’ll be able to get some sort of return for the veterans and have a look at some prospects.

If we could go 4-5 or 5-4 that would be the bee-knees
1 out of 3 would be realistic

2 of 3 awesome, 3 of 3 and we’re buying World Series tickets

I think it's actually head over if you're doing the brewery tour.
160 miles!
Anyone whose head's down after visiting a strip club....
WooHoo Mirror Pond!

I think I’ll have on right now.

So on a per game basis

The Dodgers have been 0.8 runs better than average, while we have been 0.4 runs worse. 1.2 runs per game over a season is huge, but in a three game set it at least feels surmountable.

Kuroda is going to absolutely kill us (I mean, I hope not but who am I kidding?). I really can’t believe he favored LA over Seattle because he liked the city better. There’s just no accounting for bad taste.

I'm driving to LA from Vegas to catch Saturday and Sunday's games with my brother.

First big league game ever. Good thing my first game features Felix and not Vargas.

You could do far worse than having Dodger Stadium be your first big league game ever

No matter who is pitching, it’s a great place to see a game.

My brother's been to one.

We’re sitting in the left field seats, so that should be cool to heckle Griffey/Balentien when I feel necessary.

Can you move about more these days?

A friend went (oh, a decade ago?) and wasn’t allowed to move between the levels, trying to see the stadium

My first big league game was also at Dodger Stadium

1980 – Burt Hooton beat Vida Blue and the Giants. I can still remember thinking it was the most amazing place I’d ever seen.

It was absolutely incredible.

Being as Griffey has always been my favorite player, I felt it was also pretty incredible that my first big league game featured him hitting a home run.

Try not to wear red
I wore black

and was still shot at.

You ever seen Bryce Harper play?
Never got a chance.

I actually found out about Harper after Strasburg and after the baseball season was over. I’ll try to make it to one of his games in college.

Get the Felix game, and maybe play another close game and I'll be happy.

Better chance of getting a series win vs NY.

4-5 would be a great trip. But Im expecting 3-6

Joh back in the lineup, Burke DFA'd for the 3rd time this season.
And a Griffey-free outfield!

Ichiro RF
Russ Branyan 1B
Adrian Beltre 3B
Jose Lopez 2B
Franklin Gutierrez CF
Kenji Johjima C
Wladimir Balentien LF
Ronny Cedeno SS
Jason Vargas P

Maybe the best lineup (from a making-sense standpoint) of the season.
At this point I'd rather have Vargas bat before Cedeno.

Kidding. Kind of.

Isn't it optimal to have the worst hitter bat eight?

I read that somewhere, but I don’t remember where.

Only if they're pitchers.

They have to be really, really bad hitters for it to make sense.

And you want a faster player hitting ninth in that case

so he can score from first on a double, etc. Lineups don’t make a huge difference though.

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