Option One:
1B Mike Carp
2B Jose Lopez/Chris Woodward
SS Yuniesky Betancourt/Ronny Cedeno
3B Russell Branyan
Option Two:
1B Russell Branyan
2B Chris Woodward/Ronny Cedeno
SS Yuniesky Betancourt
3B Jose Lopez/Mike Morse
Option one is the more unconventional answer and certainly punts defense a bit, but let us have a look at the numbers.
DEFENSE
Option One: ?/-5/-10/-10. Total: -25
Option Two: -5/0/-10/-5. Total: -20
Based on UZR, with some question marks as to how Mike Carp and/or Jose Lopez would field given sample sizes, but some legitimately horrendous prospects of seeing Mike Morse on the field. All in all, it looks like it could be about a five run difference or so. And I feel like I am being conservative toward the more traditional option two here. Worth noting is that by moving Branyan over and inserting Carp at the corners, you leave Woodward and Cedeno both open to sub in at the middle infield positions. In the currently proposed Option Two, you are losing half of that flexibility.
The key here is how bad you think Branyan would be at third base. Branyan's actually been mostly a third baseman lately, logging almost 2.5x as many innings there than at first and logging significant time there as recently as last season. His career UZR/150 at 3B is -6.9. I've projected that all the way down to -10 to further worsen the case against.
OFFENSE
Mike Carp's projected wOBA: .323
Chris Woodward's projected wOBA: .287
Difference between two, over a full season: 20 runs
This operates under the assumption that the normal starter's offense does not suffer from moving positions. All numbers come from updated ZiPS projections.
Do it, Wak. I know you love defense. We love it too. But what's more important than defense is offense plus defense and there's just no way to justify starting three terrible middle infielders while you let Mike Carp and Jeff Clement go to waste somewhere.
0 recs | 70 comments
No doubt about it.
Rudy4three - June 27, 2009
If we're concerned that moving Branyan to third will affect his hitting
How realistic of an option would Shelton be instead? Because fuck Mike Morse.
OlSalty - June 27, 2009
I'm not concerned. I'm just stating my assumptions.
Matthew - June 27, 2009
Right I'm just saying that if it's something the people making the decisions are concerned about
Would Shelton be decent enough at third?
OlSalty - June 27, 2009
I would rather platoon Shelton at first with Carp.
Shelton’s defense looks kind of okay at first.
Fuckmikereilly - June 27, 2009
Option 1 please.
Not only that, but if Carp were to break out he might steal playing time from a certain washed up legend once Beltre returns.
Poochie - June 27, 2009
Option 3 - Trade Washburn to LAD for Blake Dewitt
Zips projects him as .317 for the rest of the year, while he was +5.2 in UZR last year. So he’s like the best of both worlds. Plus he’s left handed, is under team control for 5 more years, and is playing a lot of second base lately as well
Malcontent1 - June 27, 2009
Everything after "UZR last year" is precisely why it would never happen
seattlesundevil - June 27, 2009
umm.....
Ned Coletti doesn’t care about minor leaguers
Carlos Santana was thrown in so the Dodgers wouldn’t have to pay Casey Blake’s remaining 4 million in salary. This was after he started being proclaimed as one of the 5 best minor league catchers.
Malcontent1 - June 27, 2009
Trade rosterbation sucks.
Matthew - June 27, 2009
Totally
Unless someone that runs the site does it
Malcontent1 - June 27, 2009
Not rosterbation!
Poochie - June 27, 2009
Trade rosterbation sucks because most of the time the people doing it don't know what the hell they are talking about.
Aaron Campeau - June 27, 2009
There's a key line in there
Also, there’s a difference between talking about nobody outfielders and trading Jarrod Washburn for Blake DeWitt.
Jeff Sullivan - June 27, 2009
I don't see how the difference is that big other than salary
Jarrod Washburn is a pitcher who’s performance, it has been said many times both here and at USS, could be replicated by one of Jason Vargas, Ryan Rowland-Smith, or Garret Olson. Blake Dewitt isn’t a star, he’s not an A Prospect, he’s a fringe regular, more than likely topping out around Jose Lopez. What’s more, I recognize the vagaries of making trades and that it probably wouldn’t be as simple as a one for one / no money trade. Perhaps I should have simply said, “Blake Dewitt is a player who could fulfill our need at 3rd base might be available at a moderate cost, though I’m not saying he’s the only option available via trade.” My apologies for not simply agreeing with the theoretical possibility that Matthew proposed.
Malcontent1 - June 27, 2009
Be more passive agressive. Please. It's utterly endearing.
Matthew - June 27, 2009
I understand where you're coming from
it’s just a dangerous issue is all, and we try to keep a close watch over it. Occasional suggestions and ideas are perfectly fine. It’s when they snowball that it becomes a real pain.
Jeff Sullivan - June 27, 2009
I understand other's impatience, but this site would be lost without your diplomacy, Jeff.
Kudos, because I know how fucking hard it can be.
John Morgan - June 28, 2009
Yep.
Matthew - June 27, 2009
Given that we've lost two of the key contributors to our defense, I think
I’m at the point where I’d start trotting out an offense that included Branyan at 3B, Carp at 1B, Sweeney at DH, and Griffey in LF. At least a couple times a week.
Rudy4three - June 27, 2009
This seems logical.
Fuckmikereilly - June 27, 2009
If Saunders keeps playing well, maybe we'll see him around August?
Then you can keep Griffey away from the field. It’s at least an interesting thought.
AtomicGarden - June 27, 2009
Griffey is awful in the field and he's unable to play for like three games every time he starts in the OF.
He should never be anywhere near LF.
Aaron Campeau - June 27, 2009
Couple times a week Im saying. We have no chance in my opinon unless we start
playing more offense, even if it jeapordizes the run prevention. The guys filling in for Beltre and Endy are likely going to produce below average run prevention at the positions anyway. It’s not like we have another Endy or Beltre like glove waiting to fill in.
I’d push the envelope and take my chances a couple days a week going with an all bat offense including the four guys I mentioned above
Rudy4three - June 27, 2009
Runs are runs whether they are generated at the plate or saved in the field.
Matthew - June 27, 2009
I guess I would want to know how big of a difference there is between Wlad and
Griffey in left, and if the inclusion of Sweeney into the lineup instead of Wlad would make up for the difference.
Rudy4three - June 27, 2009
Mike Sweeney isn't a good hitter anymore
Jeff Sullivan - June 27, 2009
Not even better than Wlad, to the point where he offsets the bad Griffey defense?
Rudy4three - June 27, 2009
Hard to say for sure since we don't know Wlad's true talent at the plate or in the field
But based on the ZiPS projections, Sweeney is only 4-5 runs better than Wlad at the plate for a full season, and that’s not enough to erase the defensive dropoff. Plus, let’s face it, even if you wanted Griffey to play the field, his body won’t let him do it anymore.
Jeff Sullivan - June 27, 2009
Thanks. Guess it makes little sense then.
Rudy4three - June 27, 2009
I'm really hoping Saunders arrives soon and makes everybody happy
Jeff Sullivan - June 27, 2009
I wonder what they think he still needs to learn in AAA
OlSalty - June 27, 2009
He's slumped a little bit the last few weeks, but I think it's more
about getting his shoulder back in shape. At least that’s what they keep saying. Although not sure what the difference is between strengthening the shoulder in Tacoma vs Seattle is
Rudy4three - June 27, 2009
So does Shannon.
msb - June 27, 2009
It boggles my mind that we've stayed in the race this long and people still don't understand the value of defense
Jeff Sullivan - June 27, 2009
Pitching you fool, pitching!
Poochie - June 27, 2009
Which is a direct result of Rob Johnson's greatness.
We’re still in this because of Rob Johnson!
JLProck - June 28, 2009
Oh Please
dbcouver - June 28, 2009
I get the value of defense. But aren't the replacements we're going to be dealing with
below average defenders in addition to below average hitters? It seems now that we just have a bunch of below average defenders, with varying levels of below average hitters.
I don’t know, Im probably overvaluing Sweeney and underestimating how bad Griffey is in the field, given that to the visual eye, he doesn’t seem to have screwed us yet.
Bottomline, we’re pretty fucked. But I would like to at least see the Branyan move to third with maybe a Shelton/Carp 1B platoon.
However, I think Russell is so locked in right now, they won’t want to move him off his position.
Rudy4three - June 27, 2009
Griffey would have to wOBA in the high threes just to offset his defense
Poochie - June 27, 2009
No matter what happens, you always have to look at the picture in terms of run value on offense and defense
just because we’ve lost two of our best gloves doesn’t mean we can suddenly punt the whole thing. If Pujols goes on the DL the Cardinals won’t play an all-defense lineup since their offense got hurt.
Griffey in the outfield is still a really bad idea. He sucks and he’s fragile. Nothing about our OF/DH alignment should change with the Beltre news, at least until Saunders is ready.
Jeff Sullivan - June 27, 2009
Thanks for reminding me how wonderful that team would be sans-Pujols
Poochie - June 27, 2009
Pitman votes Mike Morse.
Because he’s never had a chance.
msb - June 27, 2009
And he's a natural infielder.
msb - June 27, 2009
No one has gotten more chances than Mike Morse
Poochie - June 27, 2009
Obviously, you haven't been paying attention.
Why, all he did was hit and they insisted on playing Brad Wilkerson.
msb - June 27, 2009
He's paid his dues, you know.
msb - June 27, 2009
Who takes Beltre's spot on the 25 man anyway?
I see Morse, Shelton, Clement, RRS, maybe Prentice Redman or Jerry Owens?
Fuckmikereilly - June 27, 2009
Drayer thinks they might play Lopez at 3rd for a while, with Cedeno/Woodward in the middle, until they find a better option
msb - June 27, 2009
Oh my goodness
Jeff Sullivan - June 27, 2009
Neither she nor Lopez seem to think its a long term option
msb - June 27, 2009
If the FO makes that happen, what's that going to say to Loafie how they feel about him at 2nd?
He’s the best option at 3rd, they can cover 2nd don’t worry about it? Or Loafie doesn’t have the range for 2nd anymore? Maybe I’m reading into that too much.
Kermit. - June 27, 2009
Even as a short-term option it's a shitty idea
OlSalty - June 27, 2009
I thought it would be pretty obvious that Branyan should be the fill in
It’s not like it’s been three years since he played it regularly, he was a regular thirdbaseman last year.
Poochie - June 27, 2009
Two days of a Cedeno/Woodward middle infield should change everyone's mind
Jeff Sullivan - June 27, 2009
Not to mention Lopez has shown himself to be very poor at third.
Gosh well I hope we can win on a ration of six baserunners a game.
Poochie - June 27, 2009
If they're that worried about disrupting Branyan's hitting by moving him to third
(Which I don’t really understand) why not try Shelton? I doubt his defense will be good but most of our other options aren’t going to be great defense-wise, and Shelton is the only one who can hit.
OlSalty - June 27, 2009
Maybe they are worried about Branyan's back? Is 3B more physically demanding?
I would suspect it is
Rudy4three - June 27, 2009
I'll concede that Branyan has some issues that could be keeping him from 3B
but I feel like we need to find out, or at least get a straight explanation from the guys in charge if that isn’t the route they intend to take.
Jeff Sullivan - June 28, 2009
In the vein of potentially cheap AAA pickups...
Kevin Frandsen lost the battle for 2B in San Francisco this spring to Emmanuel Burriss. UZR/150 of 12.0 at 2B, though in limited time. Running .376 wOBA in 2009 (was out all of 2008) and has always had good minor league stats. Not all that young, far from a long-term option, and I’m not sure about his availability, but if the FO was intent on moving Lopez to third…
Just desperately looking for options better than Lopez/Cedeno/Woodward as our infield.
Fuckmikereilly - June 27, 2009
I am sure Zduriencik feels much the same as you.
He’s probably combing the league like hell this weekend. At least we can trust he isn’t going to just pick up any random person without a particular skill set needed to fill the hole. And most importantly he won’t overpay.
Wilder. - June 28, 2009
Could we have (should we have) made a play for Mark DeRosa?
Cards just got him for Chris Perez.
hcoguy - June 28, 2009
And a valuable PTBNL
Jeff Sullivan - June 28, 2009
Valuable!?!?!?!
DeRosa is playing left, and Schumaker is at second.
I love baseball.
Poochie - June 28, 2009
Yep
Jeff Sullivan - June 28, 2009
I love it why my bitching and moaning is 100% justified.
Poochie - June 28, 2009
HAHAHAHAHA
abender20 - June 29, 2009
Schumaker has improved very much from April
but Jesus my original point stands.
Poochie - June 29, 2009
He's back to exactly 0.0 WAR. Kudos, Skip!
abender20 - June 30, 2009
Ray Durham for second?
He was a 2.6 WAR player last year, and he’s unemployed.
Decatur - June 28, 2009
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