Lookout Landing

Yeah really

I’d have been talking about him all year if I knew they were going to try to get him into the draft a year early.

So who will be the first person to type HARPER! at the end of loss?

Dead meme

Based on these two comments, I would say the answer to Poochie's question is Poochie.

It's ok

You can talk about them after they are dead

Robert - June 4, 2009 reply

The Mariners suck for the better part of five years and all we get out of it is Ackley, three closers, and a DH

I hate the Nationals.

AND STEPHEN BARON

More like two closers and a diabetic.

I mean seriously that DH pick could not possibly have been worse

Who wastes that high of a pick on a DH?

I cannot believe we drafted a DH.

This team is unbelievable

We should convert him into a closer

You'd be down to a 5-inning game then!

Shorten the game!

That only works if the closer is good, which based on the one who's made it so far seems like a problem

That's what we need with that pussy Bedard

5 and out amirite?

Now you've got the Bavasi/Fontaine plan all figured out!

Nah...

Beautiful, Paul.

royalcurve - June 3, 2009 reply

I can't see this picture, but I'm assuming it's sepia.

HAHAAHAHA - Sepia-blind are ya?

Yup. It’s sepia…

It could have been worse if there was a local DH who was better and was passed on by the Ms.

Who perhaps grew up dreaming of playing for the Mariners

despite his limited positional size

Perhaps there would even exist photos of him as a child in Mariners paraphernalia.

And some local people might have been championing his selection for a long period of time.

Nobody with a trustworthy opinion though

I imagine his swing mechanics would have been stupid

But one or two people would write articles about how, while unconventional, they are perfect

and only a supreme athlete like this DH has the coordination to pull off that combination of balance and torque generation.

But the inverted W's in his swing would cause him to explode.

joof - June 3, 2009 reply

I don't know who to rec here!

Fearless Frog - June 3, 2009 reply

When in doubt, rec them all.

Mariner John - June 3, 2009 reply

On the other hand, I'm looking forward to Rapin' Raben!

Not this year you're not

(ever)

Doyle’d

Holy shit, a high school sophomore registered a batted ball speed of 113.

Aluminum bat or not, my god

The swing is surprisingly not-uppercutty too

Opposite field in Tampa on a BP pitch

Why do I care that a catcher can throw 96?

If we draft him and convert him then I'm really going to be steamed

We need another closer

As per above, that will be important for when the Ms draft him as a closer.

Closer Of The Future™

It kind of matters when you're trying to stop people from stealing on you.

He doesn’t just throw 96 though. His pop time can be sub 2.0 which is above big league average. Again, he’s going to be a HS junior. Absurd!

Um

“There’s a very good argument to be made that he’d be the #1 pick this year too”

There’s an argument yes, but it’s not a good one.

I'd take him because of pitcher volatility, but don't just trust me

John Manuel: I’d go Harper 1-1, over Strasburg, and here’s why [reasons].

Granted he said that last fall but I don’t see it being clear cut at all.

So you think the volatility on Stephen Strasburg is higher right now than Bryce Harper?

Who is 16.

But as a 16 year old he can drive his parents car 96 mph

and grow a handlebar moustache!

So what you're saying is that Bryce Harper is really 22?

Somehow I am skeptical that he will remain behind the plate

Samesies but I don't really care

Yeah, I'm getting a Robert Stock vibe here

(to be fair, while Stock was a big-time C prospect at 15-16, he wasn’t hitting any 540’ HRs).

I read about Harper in some power hitting showcase; sounds like he’s still well ahead of 18yo kids.

3B is my guess

Same set of skills, less damage to knees, big body plays ok there. Probably where Wieters will end up too

So their careers will be roughly the same as

Pablo Sandoval and Brandon Inge?

That's one way of putting it

But with less hacktastickness of Sandoval

InSpokane - June 3, 2009 reply

He's above big league average defensively at 16.

He’s too valuable catching. Especially as good as he is at the position. Like Mauer, you don’t move a talent like that until you need too.

In terms of injury risk? Totally Strasburg is a pitcher

In terms of skill? No.

BPA

So you take Tanner Scheppers over Kyle Gibson?

Ignoring risk?

So you think Bryce Harper has a better integral of player value than Stephen Strasburg?

Which is what I was asking in the first place.

This disagreement is breaking my world

Why?

I disagree with Graham on draft stuff all the time. I disagree with most everyone on the draft actually it seems.

Yes

Okay.

I disagree.

Does this mean no more "Three guys that agree about everything" posts?

Now that’s just depressing.

Why?

Bearing in mind we're talking best bat of the last decade vs best pitcher of the last decade

Is it just age/experience? Strasburg has adjusted to college competition already, so that’s in his favour.

Because he's 16 and has never faced anything higher than high school pitching and they won't even throw to him anymore.

And if he falls off catcher, he moves to the outfield, likely to a corner.

Compared to Strasburg who has had two seasons of blowing away the best college bats in the country swinging with aluminum and is almost certainly Major League ready right now.

Harper’s ceiling might be higher because he’s a positional player, but I just cannot fathom how you think the risk on Strasburg because of injury outweights the risk on Harper because of age and development time left.

I value straight up tools in prospects much more highly than you do.

It’s like comparing Upton and Gordon in the 2005 draft.

Except far more extreme.

But yes, basically.

The he is 16yo argument rings true for me.

I fear this kid is going to become Todd Marinovich or Matt Bush.

So again, you'd feel more comfortable if he put that line up when we was 18?

Maybe, but it is more that I am not convinced

a 16yo should be so focused on one thing. I hope he proves me wrong, but kids get tired of things if they do it too much at a young age.

And when that happens and you add a few million dollars

You get Josh Hamilton.

InSpokane - June 3, 2009 reply

HE'S AN AMERICAN HERO YOU KNOW

Or you get Ichiro

Speculation about how well grounded the kid is seems odd as scouts are swarming all over him

Good point Graham.

I guess the best way to put my concerns is that I actually hope the kid is happy doing this. If he is, the sky appears to be the limit for him.

I meant to add 'and I'm sure they'd have picked up on that'

I am less sure.

I was kind of glad to read he was eating Fruity Pebbles

chance of him going Marinovich dropped about 50% with that one stray detail…..

No kidding.

I really think Marinovich failed not because he was sick of Football

but because of the way his dad controlled every single aspect of his life. He could have done every extra curricular activity in the book and still gotten sidetracked by the magic of weed thanks to that guy.

True, I just was never sure he liked

football in the first place. That being said, his father really fucked him over.

I wonder how much of that was real and how much was a construction of perspective

Even if his father was truly as what, dominating/crazy* as the press made out to be, some of the year round baseball programs they have now days almost blow that story out of the water.

*What would be a good and proper term for the elder Marinovich? From what I remember the press had his program for Todd as being outlandish, didn’t child protective services get involved at one point after details came out?

That I do not remember.

I do remember when the SI article came out about his training and food regimen. It was ridiculous. As my Mother has said many times, “You have to let children enjoy being a child or they will never enjoy being an adult.”

I'd thought that the Marinovich fiasco would make would-be tyrants

think twice about doing what he did.

Sadly, the Williams sisters success may give others hope to prosper through unrelenting, total control of their kids lives.

Tyrant, there you go

I think it's really close.

Yes, there have been a ton of 15-16yo players who are deemed the consensus #1 overall pick two years hence, and who for a variety of reasons fall behind their peers by age 20 or so. Michael Main, to pick a recent example. In general, the volatility with a 15yo is just off the charts.
What makes this difficult is that Harper needs NO further development (of his tools). Sure, he hasn’t faced college pitchers or whatever, but it’s not like he hits more for more power than other 16 year olds… he hits for more power than any HS bat, at any age. If he stalls out for two years, he’s still the best power bat in the draft (and at a premium position). I guess I’d want to know if anyone thinks he’ll stay behind the plate. If yes…. wow, it’s damn close. If not, Strasburg all the way.

I don't think his tools will develop any further.

He’s 6’4" 215 at 16. My guess would be that he’s simply matured faster than most and that physically, he might basically be an 18 year old.

If he does get any bigger, I have an even harder time believing that he would stick at catcher.

How much value do you give to his early physical development

allowing him to spend the next year working on skills like pitch recognition? I realize he won’t get any help in high school, but I assume a kid in his position would go out of his way to use find other opportunities (like those ridiculous video pitching machines).

What would you say if he just happened to be 2 years older and put that exact same line up as a senior?

He’d still be a shot to go ahead of Strasburg.

I would be a little higher on him

but still not as high as on Strasburg.

That seems really weird to me and at odds with all of the ARL type prospects (Triunfel!)

His numbers against HS pitching mean little to me.

And the two years between 16-18 would help convince me more that he’s not going to turn into a mental fuckwad.

Assuming that he has makeup concerns until proven otherwise seems harsh

And I didn't.

Don’t put words in my mouth.

Take it outside, gentlemen.

Do not sully this house of peace with your bitter feuding.

Unless you make it really entertaining.

Shut up

Exactly what did you mean then?

That it's a risk you need to factor in with 16 year olds more so than 20 year olds.

This can be so easily taken out of context.

Jarrod Washburn can remind you of those risks.

Isn't it easier just to go off scouting impressions rather than making that assumption?

We’re pretty sure Strasburg is a level-headed dude but if I hadn’t read any reports on him I’d assume he’s an ego-maniacal asshole.

Besides, then you’re debiting him for his age and not giving him the benefit of more development time (and it’s not just physical development, as you know) and a longer career.

I am not assuming that Harper is a mental fuckwad.

I don’t know why you think that I am.

You're making the assumption that he might be one

And therefore riskier

In the same way that a .900 OPS in Triple-A

is less risky than a .900 OPS in Low-A.

This is going nowhere though.

I think you're ignoring potential because you're tied up in risk

I imagine you think I’m ignoring risk because I’m tied up in potential.

That's fair, but I'm skeptical of this sort of thing ever since

I was assured that Travis Snider would be an immobile sack of fat by the time he was 20.

I'm solely talking about his ability to stick at catcher in the case of size

My first guess would be that one of two things happens:

1. He’s done (mostly) developing physically. Which means he’s probably not going to develop his tools like power much more.

2. He’s not done developing physically and thus might get more power, etc as he fills out further, but at that point I would be highly doubtful that could stay behind the plate. Just far too much height and weight to be in a crouch all the time and stay healthy.

Scouts already have him as 70-80 on power anyway so who cares if it's done developing?

It means he's further along on the development scale. That's all.

And it dims the promise of his youth

If he’s high-risk/high-reward… you’d like to see more tool development coming down the pipeline… like Triunfel.

In your mind, would this be good or bad?

Not sure.

70(80) is better than 70(70) so in that case, bad that he might be further along

but developing 80 power might mean have to move from C to LF so in that case, good that he might be further along

Remember that the power tool is really a combination of strength and batting eye

He could improve that even without putting on any more mass.

I can see that.

To me, it’s very good, but part of that is because I seriously can’t see him less than like 75 right now (five hundred and fucking seventy?)

He developed sooner, so there you go. Again, I think the comparison to Travis Snider may be apt (though Snider never really had a baseball body at all, but those who thought that he would balloon outwards were wrong; he just developed sooner than his peers).

Doesn't mean we can't talk about it.

So you're saying we need to fail to sign Ackley

Would only net us the third pick next year.

Watch that happen and then the Nationals fail to sign Strasburg

They get nothing fot not signing Strasburg

after flailing on Crow. Or are you implying that we’ll get a second crack at him?

No, they get nothing for not signing Crow's replacement

they’d get the second pick for not signing Strasburg

Baseball is byzantine

Yes, but this particular rule is not that complex.

A large number of simple rules make for a complicated system

*makes

So then they could have the first and second picks in the draft

Fuck them

But couldn't re-draft Strasburg.

I didn't know about this rule

Without his permission anyways.

Can only re-draft Stras if Stras signs a "consent to re-draft" card

Which he wouldn’t for the Nats

gustafm - June 3, 2009 reply

Assuming they select Strasburg and not Ackley

We're not outfailing the Natinals again

nor the As. Let’s face it, Zduriencik screwed the pooch with the defensive improvements to the team. We’re not drafting higher than 10th next year, I think.

Yeah, screw GMZ for putting a passable team together out of scraps

But we can't give up yet!!

Just listen to Baker, the voice of reason, crying in the wilderness!!!

I... I... Is there a real response to this?

jimmylauderdale - June 3, 2009 reply

That is quite the strawman

That's a doozy

I don't necessarily disagree with the overall point

but the route he takes to get there is pretty hilarious.

Aaron Campeau - June 3, 2009 reply

He's like Balentien last year.

Aaargh

“The Mariners have the tough parts down: pitching and defense.”

This is just simply not true. The ONE team stat that correlates best with team winning percentage? Team OBP.

That being said, yes, Zdurienck is not blowing up the team a third of the way into the season. I won’t expect anything to happen until late June at the earliest.

This is also annoying

“This team already has two or three other potential closers in the bullpen and at least two in the minors who’ll probably be up by next year.”

Fun fact: David Aardsma, drafted about where Josh Fields was, also a closer in the SEC, went through FOUR ORGANIZATIONS (Giants, Cubs, White Sox, Red Sox), before he became a closer. Fields has already been shut down for injury and his BB/9 right now makes Brandon Morrow look like Greg Maddox.

Projecting guys like Fields to immediate MLB success because they have fastballs and they got drafted high is just not justified given the history involved. For every Huston Street you have a David Aardsma or Matt Thornton who takes a loooooong time to get to the point where their command is MLB-ready.

Let's count the strawmen...

1) Fans who would rather cheer on an 80 win/$50M team than a 95 win/$100M team
2) Fans who would rather be in last place with Adam Jones than contend with Franklin Guttierez
3) Fans who think that Beltre’s true talent is a 550 OPS (thank God Baker is around to correct them)
4) Fans who think we should “play the kids” just to get them experience (as opposed to playing them because they will likely improve the offense)
5) Fans who only want to trade Bedard so we can somehow “win” the Adam Jones trade

He wants us to listen to him and not just pluck a few lines out and rip him to shreds, but jeez guy, play with your imaginary friends much?

mkd - June 3, 2009 reply

Well...

“There is a certain breed of Mariners fan, I’m convinced, that cares more about the process of winning than whether or not the team actually wins something.”

No, we care about process because we know that good results in the long-term scheme of things COME from good process. Nobody on LL was going to turn down a gift playoff series or three in August 2007, even though a lot of us may have thought Bavasi wasn’t a very good GM. Baseball has SUCH an element of luck introduced into it that quite often over the short term it overwhelms process- even on the full season scale.

Our argument is that superior process leads to superior result- or, as Branch Rickey said, “luck is the residue of design”. This doesn’t mean there’s only one way to get a superior process- look at Minnesota, for example. Not a Moneyball organization at all, still gets good results because they get some basic things right (invest in kids, not high-priced FAs, concentrate on defense, have a stable organizational philosophy that can teach kids things).

Yeah,

I didn’t list that line because it’s the one time Baker actually argues with anything resembling a real group of fans. But even here he gets it all jumbled up.

Geoff: Of course I would rather have a luck-driven World Series victory than a sound approach to organization building, but it’s a false choice. What are the odds pure luck is going to take us all the way? A million to one? What are the odds sound organization building will take us all the way? A thousand to one? A hundred to one? I want process BECAUSE I want to win. It’s that simple. I don’t get why people don’t get that.

mkd - June 3, 2009 reply

I would imagine that someone who says outright they want to play for the Yankees or Boston

would simply refuse to be signed until signed by one of those clubs.

He can afford to wait out 4 years (or more if he doesn’t move up now). After the first couple non NYY/BOS teams aren’t able to sign him (and get marginally screwed the next year), everyone lets him go until he drops to the teams he wants.

It seems like a plausible scenario. I mean teams don’t hate each other enough to actually stall their picks till the next year just for spite, would they?

Wants to play for NY or BOS does not mean unwilling to play for other teams.

I want to play for NY or BOS

but I’d settle for the Marlins. Anything but the NL west.

Why not the Dodgers?

Stadium sucks but it is a big city, a team capable of winning consistently for years, a team with a lot of positive history etc etc.

I would rather live in San Diego.

He could live wherever he wants with the kind of money he'll get

but why would you hypothetically not want to play for the Dodgers?

San Diego is nicer than LA.

That wasn't his question though

Exactly

so live in San Diego and play for the Dodgers. I’m asking why if you were making a list of teams you wouldn’t play for you would include the Dodgers. It’s not like they are really cheap when it comes to top level talent, and they’ve done a pretty good job at developing young talent into quality ML players. At worst you probably get traded to some other organization for their over valued veteran.

I agree, as a team they are good.

I was just being difficult.

Because Dodgers fans are homos

The Marlins is a good starting point.

I mean, that is where Josh Beckett, AJ Burnett, Brad Penny, Carl Pavano, Miguel Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, Mike Lowell, Luis Castillo, and Dontrelle Willis got their start. I mean, not all turned out to be success stories, but Florida is generally very good at growing a good crop of player.

ummm...

except most of them actually got their starts in OTHER organizations… all of them except Cabrera, i think.

jameslcrockett - June 3, 2009 reply

And Castillo and Beckett.

Mariner John - June 3, 2009 reply

Throw enough money at an 18 year old kid and watch how fast he signs

Brian Floyd - June 3, 2009 reply

'I'd even player for Kansas City. I just want to play'

I didn't read the background articles, I was just going off your quote.

Jeff Clement once said that he was a Mariner fan growing up but you don't see him playing for Seattle.

YES

Same with Lincecum.

If only kid photos of Rob Johnson in an Angels uniform existed...

A little photoshop and that dream becomes reality

Brian Floyd - June 3, 2009 reply

Where is Vatinus when you need him?

It's rare that I get to see a mod bait go green.

As far as I am concerned that is LL nirvana

He's underage you pervert.

R.J. Anderson - June 3, 2009 reply

If there's grass on the field

play ball

Some high schools can't afford grass fields

Some of them have astroturf.

No, I have no idea where I'm going with this.

Merkin jokes!

huh huh...Merkin Valdez's name is Merkin.

Oh Jeezus it looked like real grass

I had no idea, your honor.

My first HS had the JV team playing on Red Clay

with rocks all over. The Freshman team played on a dirt field infield at a local park.

He runs like a fairy.

But holy fuck.

Fairies have wings.

I would assume they fly most everywhere.

I imagnie he spends most of his games in high school trotting

Well, it

Ahem.

Well, it’s official — Softy just mentioned Harper (due to the upcoming SI article)

So if he's in the next draft the Nationals get them as well?

Does that mean when the Nationals make the playoffs in 2015 the current GM, fired two year prior, will be praised endlessly by Chip Caray?

Hmm....

53 games in.

2008: 1.0 up in Draft Standings
2009: 9.5 down in Draft Standings

No sir, we’re not gonna make it. Yay, Nationals!

ThundaPC - June 3, 2009 reply

We squandered our opportunity. DAMN YOU OAKLAND

.Taylor - June 3, 2009 reply

Here's the SI story:

Baseball’s LeBron

He takes three steps every time he goes to hit the ball?

That would only give him a triple each at-bat

He's gonna get drilled his first at bat in the majors

Before he hits, Harper lays his bat down in the batter’s box, takes two steps toward the pitcher, bends over, scoops up dirt in his bare hands (batting gloves? Hah!), rubs it between his palms and then returns to grab his bat and take his place in the box.

Yay higher OBP

Yay more injuries!

Does he think he's "The Gladiator"?

So he's Mormon.

attends religious education classes nearly every morning before school.

I wonder if the 2-year mission thing is going to be an issue.

Wilder. - June 3, 2009 reply

That does not necessarily mean he is Mormon.

Aaron Campeau - June 3, 2009 reply

He is, I Googled it to confirm.

And I found out Roy Halladay is as well during the process.

Wilder. - June 3, 2009 reply

I'd assume Wilder identifies Mormons quickly, given that he went (goes?) to an LDS school

It's a pretty good indicator.

Whatever, we have plenty of catchers.

waldo rojas - June 3, 2009 reply

We're going to have even more soon!

Brandon Morrow is a catcher now?

He is Rob Johnson's catcher.

Diabetics can't play catcher you sick fuck

Yes they can.

Only as relief catcher though.

So, Robert Stock, v2.0?

JY - June 3, 2009 reply

Robert Stock never hit this well.

Robert Stock is now a pitcher.

JY - June 3, 2009 reply

Because he never hit this well

Nice try, J

but late.

I should have known.

JY - June 3, 2009 reply

So, the Nats could have a battery of Strasburg and Harper, huh?

The best part is that they'd still be terrible

Just imagine how much farther he'll hit the ball off 95 mph fastball instead of 82 mph ones

Wood bat, however.

When they did the homerun competition at Tropicana, none of them hit a HR with a wood bat

He did, however, hit the wall I believe. That was the farthest anyone hit it.

Brian Floyd - June 3, 2009 reply

I seem to remember that high schools limit the coefficient of restitution in their baseballs below that of MLB, but I can't confirm it.

That would at least help make up some of the difference.

I had read that somewhere as well.

To make up for the increasing sickness of the bats that were coming out.

Cork it

Bill Nye disproved this one.

As did the Mythbusters.

BrianL - June 3, 2009 reply

They did disprove that putting cork in a bat doesnt work

As well as putting rubber. But is that really how a bat is ‘corked’? That doesn’t make sense to me to want less mass in the barrel of the bat. And when the Mythbusters did it, they were fairly hush-hush about the technique of ‘corking’ a bat.

Anyone here have any real life experience doctoring bats?

You want the bat lighter so you can swing it faster.

Otherwise, you look like Jeff Clement at the plate.

joof - June 3, 2009 reply

But you're allowed to just get a lighter bat

OlSalty - June 3, 2009 reply

But you have to sacrifice size to get a lighter bat.

That's true but the density of the lighter bat would be the same as the corked bat (assuming they weighed the same)

So it doesn’t seem like it would help you hit the ball farther or swing faster, it would just have more surface area. Which I guess would help you make better contact but that’s the only benefit I can see from it.

OlSalty - June 4, 2009 reply

He's going to look great wearing a Nationals uniform.

Nobody looks great wearing a Nationals uniform

A Natinals uni, however...

Adam Dunn rocked the Natinals uni.

You say you want to tank a season?

I can help!

Toxicadam - June 3, 2009 reply

Is that a hedgehog on his chin?

Goose - June 3, 2009 reply

Words can not portray just how much I want Harper.

Do not post a picture of you masturbating

For the love of christ

You were alarmingly fast on trigger with this.

It’s like you knew it was coming.

Who do you think handled the camera?

R.J. Anderson - June 3, 2009 reply

I'm glad at least one person took a swing at the ball I left on the tee.

Well, to be fair, when Robert screams that loudly

Everyone knows it’s coming

Robert Lintott - June 3, 2009 reply

Is this one of those times where I'm supposed to do the opposite of what you say?

I'm patiently waiting.

royalcurve - June 3, 2009 reply

570 feet is approximately to where the blue mini-van is parked in the parking lot across the street

map link

That's almost 2 home runs

Not really

Their fence appears to be 300 feet down the RF line

so 570 feet would in fact be 1.9 or nearly 2 home runs

.

OK, on second glance, 570 feet is probably closer to what appears to the be cooling vent of the fire station

which on this photo is the gray rectangle with the small green square directly to the left of the parked cars.

Either way, it’s a mammoth home run

I thought you meant 2 meaningful home runs

He should hit them shorter etc.

God it's painful to read the comments on that youtube video.

People hating on a 16 year old who can hit a baseball 570 feet because he uses an aluminum bat is pretty pathetic.

Zwakamatsu - June 3, 2009 reply

Youtube comments are just about the worst sewer on the internet

As with many things, XKCD said it best.

I LOVE cartoon.

mark sobba - June 3, 2009 reply

It makes me want to die.

Also, that video is fucking insane. Such a pretty swing and unbelievable power. Over 105 mph on the bat speed multiple times. I’m sure the haters on there are the 18 year old high school kids who think they’re the shit at baseball only to see a 16 year old hit a ball further than they could ever imagine hitting one.

Zwakamatsu - June 3, 2009 reply

That is one of the best swings I've seen since Griffey in his prime

I am not, however, an expert on such things – but I knows purty when I sees it.

113mph at one point!

Yikes!

Watching the "interview" afterwords its amazing to think he's only 16.

I swear kids do grow bigger and faster down south where it’s warmer. I had the chance to play in a regional tournament for my 17-18 year old rec league (I think it’s palamino?) and the kids down there were all like fucking 6 foot 2 and looked like they were about 25 years old.

Zwakamatsu - June 3, 2009 reply

Or maybe there's just more people in the south, and thus a larger population base for the good select teams to choose huge players from

Am I the only one who doesn't believe the 570 foot homer thing?

Considering he hit it off the back wall in Tropicana on the fly I could see it

I was skeptical until I saw that Trop shot

but I still wonder if 570 is total distance post-roll or first-bounce-spot.

Apparently they measured from the crater where the ball landed

Did they find the ball in the crater or was it too far below the surface for modern digging technology to reach?

I bet it caught fire

well duh

When it hit the molten center of the earth of course it caught fire.

They found Starman in the crater, actually.

A year after the event, though

I thought it was physically impossible

Metal Bat + wind + elevation makes a huge difference.

e.g. a 16mph headwind vs. 16 mph wind blowing out:

From Hittracker’s selected archive of great home runs it looks like a human can hit a ball over 500 feet unaided by wind or elevation – Mantle’s, Williams’, and Jackson’s, for example.

Decatur - June 3, 2009 reply

Wasn't McGwire's shot off Randy in the Kingdome over 500ft?

That was one of the most amazing things I have ever seen in my life.

538, they say.

http://www.slate.com/id/2095/

I was sitting in the upper deck at the Kingdom along the third base line, about even with third base, when he hit that.

Didn’t really register how far he hit it until I saw the estimate – then the crowd collectively fainted.

This article, although it’s over a decade old, argues that it wasn’t hit that far – it says the human limit at sea level with no wind is about 470 – that’s probably not true, as Mantle hit one 500 feet according to hit tracker without aid of the wind, but still McGwire’s probably wasn’t hit that far.

Decatur - June 3, 2009 reply

Take into account it came of a Randy Johnson fastball.

That ball almost cleared the bleachers in the 2nd deck. No way that isn’t 500 plus feet.

I can believe for a few reasons.

The 500 foot home run with a metal bat he hit at the trop, as Graham alluded to. Metal bats add about 10% of the distance of their wooden counterparts according to an article by Greg Rybarcyzk – so 500/1.1 = 454.5 feet with a wooden bat at sea level with no wind (at the Trop). Las Vegas is 2,000 feet high, and has hot, deserty conditions that make the ball travel farther than usual – conditions which could pretty easily add 70 extra feet or so to the 500 foot bomb he hit at the Trop. It’s probably equivalent to about a 500 foot homerun with a wooden back in Vegas and maybe a 460 or so foot bomb at sea level, I would think. I don’t know the exact calculations but it seems a disproportionate number of the biggest bombs these days are hit at the Diamondbacks’ stadium these days – see hittracker for that – very similar conditions to Vegas.

Decatur - June 3, 2009 reply

That totally makes sense. I forgot to account for the temperature and elevation.

Good post.

And dryness

don’t forget it’s dry in Las Vegas

Not when Pac-Man shows up!

waldo rojas - June 3, 2009 reply

Not all rain results in precipitation

Not all precipitation is rain

I have no idea, it just sounded so very Confucius

Confucius is apparently familiar with the concepts of snow and sleet

Bet he never heard of Bacon Lube, cures all kinds of dryness

What an ignoramus that guy was

Don't blame him

Bacon Lube is still in its prototypical phase.

Still field testing eh?

I still laugh when I think of RC’s comment.

I tell people about this stuff all the time.

But I get mixed reactions.

Yea, it didn't come out completely right.

They are still managing the exponential growth that baconnaise has had. It will come soon though.

Isn't humid air less dense?

Yes

But dry baseballs are bouncier

Please explain

This does not make intuitive sense.
I would think that more h2o molecules in the air would make it “soupier” and therefore offer more resistance to things flying through it.

H2O is less dense than the N2 molecules it is displacing.

Water vapour is a gas so it doesn’t make anything soupier

Er, less massive rather.

`

This occurs because the molecular mass of water (18) is less than the molecular mass of air (around 29). For any gas, at a given temperature and pressure, the number of molecules present is constant for a particular volume. So when water molecules (vapor) are introduced to the air, the number of air molecules must reduce by the same number in a given volume, without the pressure or temperature increasing. Hence the mass per unit volume of the gas (its density) decreases.

Fascinating...

so has it been demonstrated that humid air actually offers less resistance to a batted ball than dry air?

It doesn't need to be demonstrated. The air is less dense*. That's all you need to know.

*assuming same temp and pressure.

And assuming there are no other variables

like the quality of running into a typical air molecule vs. a typical water vapor molecule. Could collisions with water vapor be different because the molecules “stick” to the ball more than air molecules that simply bounce off? Probably not at all, but assuming that less density is “all you need to know” seems like poor science.

What?

John, this makes no sense.

Neither does impedence

when two cylinders collide end to end, you’d think that the moving cylinder would impart all its energy into the stationary one… like pool balls colliding, but it mysteriously doesn’t… because the “quality” of that collision is different. The impedence factor gets in the way of the transfer of force.

I’m just saying that rather than accept that humid air is less dense and therefore gives 1% better travel distance to fly balls… why not test empirically to verify the theory. Because… you know… sometimes science is more complicated than we initially figure it.

You're thinking of water vapour as liquid

It’s not.

Yeah, sounds like he is thinking of friction differences.

Sec 108 - June 4, 2009 reply

Yeah, I had that same thought myself

And don’t wish to argue science with people who actually study this stuff (as opposed to myself… who never took a science class beyond high school… but find it all fascinating.)

So gases don’t have any frictional qualities? Honey vapor doesn’t retain a sticky quality that creates more drag for any passing objects? You’re making reality way more boring than it is in my mind.

johnbai - June 4, 2009 reply

Is there such thing as honey vapour? I imagine it combusts

The gaseous equivalent of friction (unless they somehow condense into liquid/solid on an object, which won’t be the case here) is air resistance, which essentially involves the object shoving the gas molecules out of the way using kinetic energy transfer. Since water gas molecules are lighter than nitrogen gas molecules, they take less of the stored kinetic energy to move, and therefore more remains in the ball.

Graham MacAree - June 4, 2009 reply

The sticky qualities that you attribute to stuff like honey

is the result of the proximity of the molecules due to their increased density in the liquid state, resulting in hydrogen bonding. You just don’t get the same magnitude of the interaction in the gas phase.

Also, honey isn’t elemental. Honey is glucose, fructose and water with some other trace remnants of stuff. If you heated it, the water would just evaporate out and the sugars etc would be left behind / burn.

abender20 - June 4, 2009 reply

You are also making reality way more boring than it is in my mind

johnbai - June 4, 2009 reply

Honey vaporizes. You can use the sweet mist to enhance a dessert party.

abender20 - June 4, 2009 reply

This is way closer to the awesome reality that I subscribe to

johnbai - June 4, 2009 reply

I haven't seen bat speed like that since I can remember...

Pretty amazing, really…

Why am I just now hearing about this kid?

Shit. I need him for my softball team

He's been on the radar for a while

And he's on the cover of this week's SI so he'll be all over the radar for a year now

So he'll be a dead meme on LL by the time everyone stops commenting in this tread?

Jed MC - June 3, 2009 reply

Either that or he will find his rights traded for Brent Lillibridge

This is nooz to me.

Old memes are the best memes

I think you mean Thomson.

I think the reason old memes survive is because few of the newer people know to abuse them

Can you provide some links to these old memes

so that our newer members can learn and parrot them?

That would be all kinds of awesome and would not come close to making this place annoying

Can we glue a mustache on his face and put him in our lineup?

I hear we need a good LH bat

"I am not seriously suggesting that I want this team to tank for draft position based on speculation that Harper might be draft eligible in 2010."

Besides, when the 2008 M’s had a chance to get make a statement of “we want Strasburg” in 2008, we all know how that went. Clearly this team is very un-clutch when it comes to tanking for draft position.

Which blows because who the fuck cares if you're 59-103 or 61-101

one of these things would have acquired Strasburg

Well, to be serious instead of sarcastic here

Pythag projected results suggest the first draft pick is going to the worst team, like it should be. Worst Pythag teams by division, per B-R:

BAL: 73-88
KCR: 72-90
SDP: 68-94
SEA:: 67-95
PIT: 67-95
WSN: 62-99

Being 5 games back in June is no time to give up on a season!

A few key losses here and there and we could be right back in this thing.

/bizzaroBaker

PDXTai - June 3, 2009 reply

All they have to do is start doing the little things

like productive outs, small ball, and leadership.

Bunt bunt bunt bunt bunt bunt bunt bunt get thrown out stealing third with Griffey bunt bunt bunt bunt

How does Griffey get to third on bunts?

Errors.

Gotta put the game in motion, make things happen, apply the pressure.

Goddammit not this shit all over again

This kid is absolutely amazing.

Rich Lederer introduced him to me about a 6 months ago and I’ve been smitten ever since. Absolutely amazing power. Not only that, but as Graham said 96 off the bump, a sub 2.0 pop time!! He’s essentially big league ready defensively now. All he needs to learn is how to recognize elite breaking stuff. And sometimes that can be an issue, but with his tools and bat speed, it shouldn’t be much of one. He’s on par with Upton (the Justin version), Arod and Griffey in terms of HS prospects.

BJ would have been better if he wasn't so lazy.

I still <3 him!