Don't want to give up on the season? That's understandable. The M's are only six back of a very vulnerable Rangers team in the first week of June, and PECOTA gives them a 15% chance of making the playoffs. Competing in 2009 is far from a lost cause, and quitting now would only send a bitter message to both a clubhouse and a fanbase anxious to make a run.
Don't want to do anything that improves the team a little now while jeopardizing a part of the future? Also understandable. Just because the M's have a prayer doesn't in any way mean they're not a longshot, and you never want to sacrifice something down the road for a chance to chase rainbows. Since taking over control, the front office has espoused a big-picture approach to team-building, and you don't want to try too hard to turn a season into something it was never intended to be.
This can be a difficult situation to navigate. The M's, as currently built, clearly need to address some weaknesses if they want to hang in the race, but addressing weaknesses frequently requires one to sacrifice resources that could help down the road. Fortunately, in our case, there are options whereby the M's can get better now without doing anything to harm the next several years. Some of these options are shown below.
1) Cut Mike Sweeney and call up Chris Shelton. With Sweeney having a wOBA of .282 over 92 plate appearances and Shelton standing at .395 in Tacoma, the Mariners have the opportunity to reverse the decision they made back in Spring. It was assumed before that the M's chose the way they did because when faced with a ~tie in offense they erred on the side of likeability, but with Sweeney not producing, there's no longer much reason to believe the two are offensive approximates of one another. Shelton looks like the superior hitter, and that's all he'd need to be were he to take Sweeney's place. It might come as a bummer in the clubhouse, but nothing raises morale quite like better play on the field.
2) Unload Endy Chavez and hand Michael Saunders the keys to left field. I like Endy. He's been exactly what we thought he'd be, and believe it or not, he's actually provided the fourth-best wOBA on the team while playing solid defense in left. He's an excellent role player who isn't too terribly miscast as a regular on an otherwise solid team. But this whole Endy/Wlad platoon thing hasn't exactly lit up the scoreboard, and with Saunders tearing it up in AAA, the team may wish to make a change. In that event, Endy would become expendable with another lefty taking over. If you let Saunders start, keep Wlad around as the backup OF, and trade Endy to a contender, everyone comes away happy, and Safeco gets to set its sights on a guy who should be an outfield regular for the next several years. Saunders might not hit immediately, but given the .663 OPS the M's have gotten out of left field so far, I don't know if anyone would notice.
3) Unload Jose Lopez and plug in Mike Fontenot. Dave's already written this one up, so there's not much left for me to say, but landing the left-handed Fontenot and slotting him in at second would represent an improvement across the board, from defense to discipline to batting order handedness. While the deal may not be available as a simple one-for-one, it's something the M's could and should work to make happen, because though Fontenot's no star, he's better than Lopez and under control through 2013.
4) Unload Jose Lopez and plug in Kelly Johnson. This one's similar to the whole Fontenot thing. For whatever reason, the Braves seem to have soured a bit on Johnson, and he's definitely available. And as a young, productive left-handed 2B under control through 2011, he's the kind of player the Mariners badly need. Once again, the Braves may not be willing to go straight up, but it wouldn't take a whole lot on top of Lopez to make it happen - perhaps even just Endy Chavez - and it would bring the M's a valuable player. Johnson's no whiz in the field, but as a guy who can walk and take the ball out to right field, he'd be a great fit.
5) Play Ronny Cedeno at shortstop more. I don't think this one needs much explaining.
So there are a few options. Unfortunately the whole Griffey handicap prevents us from doing too much at DH, but then I'm not so sure that Clement or Carp would out-produce him anyway, so for the time being it's not that big of an issue. The other things, though - those are ways that the Mariners could make themselves better now without doing anything to damage the long-term picture. And to me, that makes them really appealing. No, I don't want to give up on 2009. No, I don't want to sacrifice future value to get better now. Luckily, it's not one or the other.
0 recs | 87 comments
When you say Johnson's no whiz in the field
do you mean he’s just sort of average, or actively bad? Because the last thing the M’s need is another actively bad defensive infielder, it would seem.
pdb - June 3, 2009
A little below average but his bat more than makes up for it
Graham MacAree - June 3, 2009
that works.
pdb - June 3, 2009
Based on UZR he looks to be about the same as Lopez.
Is that fair? I’d obviously prefer Johnson by a ton, but I’m just trying to get a feel for it.
Aaron Campeau - June 3, 2009
I'd say that's fair
but having watched Lopez a whole bunch, I feel like he’s getting worse in a hurry.
Jeff Sullivan - June 3, 2009
I don't disagree and for what it's worth Johnson appears to be trending upward.
Given the superiority of his bat, handedness and plate approach I’d be happy even with a minor defensive downgrade.
Aaron Campeau - June 3, 2009
He's probably about a -5, maybe -10 if you're cranky
I can’t imagine he’s worse than Lopez.
Jeff Sullivan - June 3, 2009
What if I am liquored up and super cranky?
Sec 108 - June 3, 2009
then it's just another day in the life, isn't it?
pdb - June 3, 2009
Sadly you are correct.
Sec 108 - June 3, 2009
And PMR and +/- both peg Johnson as basically -5 to +5
so I’d say -5 once you average all three.
Matthew - June 3, 2009
This seems so obvious and it's really frustrating that the team has done absolutely nothing along these lines.
I think the division is still winnable and it’s the option I’d prefer they pursue with the restraints you bring up, but if they want to start selling then I understand that too. But this horrible purgatory of boring mediocrity is driving me batshit insane.
Aaron Campeau - June 3, 2009
Fontenot is pretty damn good
He’s been worth a little over 4 WAR in about a full seasons worth of at bats. And he’s cost controlled for a few more years, it might be pretty tough to get him.
vivaelpujols - June 3, 2009
But Jim Hendry...
Wilder. - June 3, 2009
good point
vivaelpujols - June 3, 2009
It might, but it also might not.
Matthew - June 3, 2009
They have Aaron Miles.
So they’re set!
Jack Moore - June 3, 2009
I like the ideas constructed here.
What about Lopez being moved to 1B, release Sweeney (maybe offer a coaching gig for the rest of the season to keep him in the clubhouse), and then go after Fontenot?
Wilder. - June 3, 2009
Well whoops.
Branyan is full-time 1B.
Wilder. - June 3, 2009
Lopez's bat sucks balls at 2B.
Why put it at 1B?
Aaron Campeau - June 3, 2009
Because we moved Branyan to third and Beltre to SS!
Matthew - June 3, 2009
This idea is so good WHY WON'T THEY DO IT
Someone give me Zduriencik’s email address.
Aaron Campeau - June 3, 2009
dustyB@hotmail.com
abender20 - June 3, 2009
Scratch the idea.
Unloading Lopez is about the only thing we could do if we somehow acquired Fontenot.
Wilder. - June 3, 2009
Also, the Cubs might want Lopez back for Fontenot
Matthew - June 3, 2009
I think that would get a bite.
And it might be a good straight-up deal. But I won’t dare rosterbate further on that.
Wilder. - June 3, 2009
Lopez for Fontenot straight up would be better than good.
Aaron Campeau - June 3, 2009
Well, in the sense of both teams thinking they got the better deal.
The Mariners would be joyous about it, but it would come down to how Jim Hendry values defense.
Wilder. - June 3, 2009
That wouldn't be the only thing around here going straight up if that trade happened.
Sec 108 - June 3, 2009
True. I imagine our traffic numbers would increase on that day.
Trades are big news.
Matthew - June 3, 2009
That would be amazing
vivaelpujols - June 3, 2009
We hate baseless trade speculation.
Matthew - June 3, 2009
lefty
cough Tom Glavine, anyone cough
/ATL fan turned SEA fan
bamassippi - June 3, 2009
Tom Glavine is old and terrible
patsfan - June 3, 2009
No thanks
Graham MacAree - June 3, 2009
but but but
he’s available! And old!
pdb - June 3, 2009
We already can field an all-lefty white rotation.
Matthew - June 3, 2009
Does Vargas count?
Brian Floyd - June 3, 2009
He has an anglicized first name.
Fin - June 3, 2009
And he talks with no accent
tootthekazoo - June 3, 2009
Yes because what Seattle is lacking right now is control lefty starters.
Eyebrows - June 3, 2009
We can just get Moyer back in a Bedard trade!
Wilder. - June 3, 2009
And trade for Randy Johnson and sign Edgar and Jay Buhner to half-year contracts!
Fin - June 3, 2009
I have a feeling that if Fonetnot or Johnson could be had this easily it would have happened by now
Poochie - June 3, 2009
I have to agree
these moves seem so obvious that the only reason they haven’t happened is because their is more going on in reality than we know about.
bluemax - June 3, 2009
Perhaps they don't want to trade a player with Lopez's "ceiling"
for a guy like those two who has no room left for development.
Poochie - June 3, 2009
Lopez is 3 years younger than Fontenot and he's nearly 2 years younger than Johnson.
Maybe they value that.
abender20 - June 3, 2009
Of the options you present
#2-#4 are not unilateral moves… they require a trading partner… and I can see Jack being loathe to dump Lopez when his trade value is at its bottom. Why not wait until he’s mashing again (you know he’ll heat up again this summer) and then try to trade him for something good.
johnbai - June 3, 2009
Haha
stupid autoformatting fucked that up royally
johnbai - June 3, 2009
Fontenot and Johnson are good.
Matthew - June 3, 2009
Seriously, one of those two for Lopez is as much as you can expect to get.
Aaron Campeau - June 3, 2009
Pretty much
Graham MacAree - June 3, 2009
I wasn't speculating on who you could get for Lopez
just sayin’ his trade value has to be low right now because of his slow start. I expect that he’ll heat up at some point and put up some eye-raising numbers again… at which point getting someone like Fontenot or Johnson might be possible.
johnbai - June 3, 2009
I think GMs have become less and less likely to deal for a "hot hand" and would actually prefer to buy low on Lopez
Poochie - June 3, 2009
Similarly
We probably don’t want to trade Beltre just yet because his perceived value couldn’t really be much lower. If we trade him after he gets hot… maybe we get an additional lower level prospect thrown in… or the better of two almost interchangeable parts.
If we want Jack Z to maximize the future… I’m okay with him waiting to pull the trigger on trades for Lopez/Beltre until they are worth more. No matter how much I hate their poorly-discipline/right-handed asses.
johnbai - June 3, 2009
I really think you're overstating the tendency of GMs to ignore past performance.
Beltre is a known quantity. So is Lopez to a certain extent and if anything most people are likely to expect his value to increase.
Aaron Campeau - June 3, 2009
Unless the poor performance is a result of a masked injury
there could be justifiable reasons for a GM to be gunshy.
johnbai - June 3, 2009
And if a frog had wings he wouldn't bumb his ass when he hopped.
He could always start playing worse. Then where does that leave us?
thewyrm - June 3, 2009
with a magical flying frog apparently
pdb - June 3, 2009
"at which point getting someone like Fontenot or Johnson might be possible."
We don’t baselessly speculate on trade possibilities, John.
Matthew - June 3, 2009
Gotcha
So we’re the ones holding back on proposed straight up trades. Huh. Maybe Jack figures the league difference is signficant?
johnbai - June 3, 2009
I'm not saying that either.
Matthew - June 3, 2009
Plus, the longer we wait, the less those guys could help us in 2009
Jeff Sullivan - June 3, 2009
Fontenot has had a pretty slow start this year too
OlSalty - June 3, 2009
Sweeney prorates to something like 300 PAs over a full season
And Sweeney’s progressively sucked more and more since the end of 2005. I think nearly 3.5 years is a sufficient sample size to conclude that despite all the spring training “I’m healthier than I’ve been in years” bullshit, he’s still 35 years old and done.
eponymous_coward - June 3, 2009
I just wish they would make a move already
If you’re not giving up on this season yet: Great, that’s just fine. But there are still obvious moves you can make to make the team better in the organization already. Why not make them now? Or like two weeks ago for that matter?
The inaction one way or another is what’s bothering me the most.
OlSalty - June 3, 2009
I would DL Sweeney if they are so cocerned about clubhouse crap.
I totally agree in regards to Shelton.
Saunders in and Chavez out. Yea I guess that could be done, although Im not convinced he’ll be more valuable then Endy this season. However, it would get him major league experience for next season. However, if you are promoting a Saunders/Wlad platoon, does that not hurt Saunders development vs left handers?
If you believe Saunders future is only a platoon guy vs righties, then sure bring him up now. But if you want him in an everyday role, I may prefer leaving him in AAA so he can play everyday and get a good amount of ABs vs southpaws.
In regards to Fontenot and Johnson. I just do not see how we are obtaining them. Why would they trade either for Lopez?
Rudy4three - June 3, 2009
I wouldn't want to platoon Saunders with Wlad
I’d make Saunders the regular and just have Wlad as the reserve.
Jeff Sullivan - June 3, 2009
Also, as for your last question
The Braves are sour on Johnson and the Cubs aren’t that high on Fontenot because he’s 29 and some people think he may not be an everyday player. Meanwhile, Lopez is a 25 year old former top prospect who’s proven he can play everyday, and who seems like the perfect change-of-scenery target.
Jeff Sullivan - June 3, 2009
So why are we trading Lopez then? Just for handedness?
You make a point that he’s a young former top prospect, who has proven he can play everyday. Why are we dealing him for a player who “may not be an everyday player”?
Rudy4three - June 3, 2009
For a few reasons
(A) I don’t buy the suspicions about playing every day
(B) Lopez is the worst possible fit for this ballpark
© Fontenot and Johnson are better players
Jeff Sullivan - June 3, 2009
You better not steal my third point
Jeff Sullivan - June 3, 2009
I was about to but the cease and desist order put a stop to that
OlSalty - June 3, 2009
.
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/2/26/773229/ichiro-stolen-bases#12562376
Teej - June 3, 2009
RIAA's nothin' compared to Jeff's bodyguards...
PositivePaul - June 4, 2009
So the Braves probably won't want Chavez that much anymore
Jeff Sullivan - June 3, 2009
Damn you. I was writing up a subject line when that popped up.
Anyway, McClouth
-—> Bravesabender20 - June 3, 2009
McLouth
abender20 - June 3, 2009
`
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/6/3/898157/braves-trade-for-mclouth
Matthew - June 3, 2009
Sorry, and feel free to delete.
abender20 - June 3, 2009
This explains why my Fanpost disappeared
I actually put thought and effort into it but I had a coworker come by before I finished it :(
bluemax - June 3, 2009
What's the lesson here, kids?
That’s right. Never put any thought into anything again.
pdb - June 3, 2009
Clearly no one reads FanShots.
Mariner John - June 3, 2009
Let's do this already. We are wasting games playing Lopez and Sweeney.
Sinking Away - June 3, 2009
MLBTR says the White Sox are promoting Beckham
and DFAing Betemit.
The Bedard for Beckham fantasies probably won’t come true, but is Betemit anywhere near as good as he was supposed to be?
Rollo Tomasi - June 3, 2009
We should sign him and then shoot him
Graham MacAree - June 3, 2009
Or just DFA Denny Stark, and then bring up your favorite of any of the aforementioned. No trades needed.
Really, what use is he? Batista is the innings-eater-slash-designated-white-flag-of-surrender already. Stark’s not exactly a specialist, or particularly good.
If Don learns proper bullpen management, and Morrow and Jakubauskas don’t implode, you can make do with one less bullpen arm in order to bring in more potential offense.
And then if things go south with the bullpen due to a couple bad starts or bad outings overall, you can probably shove Sweeney onto the DL (bad back, case of the willies, whatever), and bring up another reliever.
Spoomeister - June 3, 2009
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