Lookout Landing

People swinging way less at his pitches out of the zone.

Leading to less Ks, leading to longer counts, leading to inevitable more walks.

Matthew - June 5, 2009 reply

That would be my theory anyways.

Pretty hard to test, but there is a relationship between strikeouts and walks.

Matthew - June 5, 2009 reply

That was my first guess too, as his '09 swinging strikes are 73% of last year's

But for him to retain the same strike rate he’d therefore have to be pounding the zone

He's also having more pitches put into play though

The whole thing is strange. I can understand a worse walk rate, but more than doubled?

Well, when he throws strikes, people put them in play.

His contact rate has jumped, his O-swing rate has fallen, and his K rate is way down.
He’s throwing the same number of out-of-zone pitches, but if people don’t swing, and if they pound whatever IS in the zone, this makes perfect sense to me. Especially considering that the overall numbers of walks aren’t huge, it’s easy to get a ‘doubling’ of a rate stat like this.

Also consider that his fastball velocity is down to 93.5

So those pitches in the zone are just easier to hit. It seemed to me that even in 2007, at a certain point batters just stopped swinging so much at his stuff out of the zone, getting him into deeper counts. But his control was a little better, as was his stuff, so it resulted in more swinging strikes. I’m not basing this on anything but my eyes and memories, so it’s possible I’m totally wrong, but I remember worrying about JJ’s command in about August of 2007. A slight loss in stuff could be a viable reason for the spike in BB’s, right?

BrettJMiller - June 5, 2009 reply

He's actually putting more balls in the zone this year than he did in 2007

57.9% to 53.6%.

His contact rate and number of pitches in the zone would suggest fewer walks, not more. Yeah, they’re not swinging as often at his offspeed stuff off the plate, but if his overall number of strikes is the same, then there’s no good reason why his walk rate should be this much higher.

Basically I just think that over a larger sample he'd get a more normal distribution of strikes and balls

and his K and BB numbers would look a lot different.

Wow

After a 1-0 count JJ is 533% more likely to walk a batter than after an 0-1 count

Yeah

That’s nuts. I feel like his walks have probably been of the quick 4- and 5-pitch variety.

I don't know....

This seems like a decent guess as to what would happen when a player loses his stuff. Balls in the zone get hit, balls out of the zone are taken (not swung at), and you get fewer Ks, more hits, and more walks.
Specifically, his FB just doesn’t have any life left. In 2007, batters were frozen by the FB. Now, they hammer it. So batters can tee off on the FB, and take his split (which still looks OK by linear weights). Given the movement on it, it’s not surprising that people can work walks if they simply refuse to swing at anything bendy.

What’s actually sort of amazing (in hindsight) is that he still got so many Ks in 2008.

Look at his 2009 by-count splits

Something is really weird there

Yeah, but look at it in 2008.

I don’t have a sense of what’s normal in a split like this, however….

By the way, where are you looking at these? b-ref?

Are they throwing out the iBBs?

Let's not exaggerate things

We’re talking about a drop in OSwing% from 25% to 18%. That’s significant, but we’re only talking about 15 swings so far. 15 swings out of 526 pitches.

Wait, are we comparing 09 to 08 or to 07?

So far, it’s only 15 swings, but he’s gone from 3rd among MLB relievers in 06, to middle of the pack in 07-08 to now, when he’s in the bottom 10% or so. That’s a collapse, and given his walk rate was so low, it just seems to me that this kind of outcome can’t be seen as that anomalous.

I think it’d be really interesting to see the results by pitch (I know you’re in a better place now, Josh Kalk, but I miss you).

I was comparing to 07

He just had the same OSwing% in 2007 and 2008.

Yeah, and I was confusing 06 and 07. My fault.

I have trouble believing that 2006 ever happened

The Typical Idiot Fan - June 5, 2009 reply

Better plate discipline amongst the competition?

I mean, y’know, Angels… and stuff. I haven’t looked, but is there a real “hacker” team amongst the NL East or.. well.. any NL team they’ve played enough to influence the stats?

Perhaps pitches that used to be swung on and missed are getting fouled off now, as they are easier to hit.

Which so the strikes are still there, but the at bats are extended in stead of ended by a strike out. And then those extended at bats end with a walk due to worse control or command or something?

joof - June 5, 2009 reply

Doesn't look like it.

The % of pitches that batters foul off is roughly the same (actually a little lower) now as it was in ‘06/’07. The % of pitches put in play is higher, back up to his ‘04/’05.

I still can't believe we got as much for him as we did.

He looked like he was finished last year.

boomyers - June 5, 2009 reply

The Mets are pretty stupid.

Fin - June 5, 2009 reply

they did

Hire Steve Phillips as a GM, that taint will last a lot longer than Bill Bavasi (unless Bavasi ends up in a national sports booth .)

Here’s hoping they trade Beltran or something.

RollingWave - June 5, 2009 reply

Guys, lets pause for a minute and soak in the glory

….

As an M’s fan, we don’t get to feel this very often.

PattyB - June 5, 2009 reply

Get used to it.

Zduriencik isn’t Bavasi. The days of dreading the July deadline and winter meetings are officially over.

eponymous_coward - June 5, 2009 reply

Why revel in his injury?

It doesn’t really affect us.

waldo rojas - June 5, 2009 reply

Because she's talking about the glory of fleecing someone else in a trade, not the glory of JJ Putz and his broken jacking arm.

CapSea - June 5, 2009 reply

This was stupid.

CapSea - June 5, 2009 reply

Agreed

gregrabble - June 5, 2009 reply

And you forgot Cleto

Huzzah

Corco - June 5, 2009 reply

I don't think Matthew forgot him

Neglected to list him due to not piching

Corco - June 5, 2009 reply

Is his visa still giving him problems, or is he injured?

eponymous_coward - June 5, 2009 reply

Visa problems.

russak - June 5, 2009 reply

Apparently there's something pretty big going on

though I’m not clear what, and Cleto’s caught in the middle of it.

Frankly, did anyone expect JJ to go all 2007 when he joined the Mets?

Not I.

.Taylor - June 5, 2009 reply

Nor I

Corco - June 5, 2009 reply

Nope, never

OlSalty - June 5, 2009 reply

Omar?

Faux - June 5, 2009 reply

Well, he's Omar. What do you expect?

.Taylor - June 5, 2009 reply

I remember some commentators saying at the time

that Zduriencik just jumped at the first offer that he liked, and that he shouldn’t have done that. This would be why he did — he couldn’t afford to overreach and have the deal fall through, because once the season started, it was probable that Putz’ value was going to crater like this.

The Typical Idiot Fan - June 5, 2009 reply

If the stories are right

Jack Z got what he wanted in Gutierrez. Supposedly Omar MInaya was what made that trade work to involve Cleveland.

I am really glad we didn't move Putz at the deadline last year.

joof - June 5, 2009 reply

Remarkably

The most amazing part of the Putz trade is Zduriencik specifically wanting Franklin Gutierrez.

Why?

Zduriencik wanted a premium OF

A previously rumored trade involving Detroit fell though presumably due to the lack of one. In addition, the actual deal was initially just a two-team trade with the Mets but Zduriencik insisted on bringing back a premium OF (mainly Gutz). Omar got on the phone with Cleveland and got the wheels turning to make it a three-team trade.

Rumor is he wanted Fernando Perez from the Rays and the interest in Joyce was

as a carrot for Tampa.

Bearskin Rugburn - June 5, 2009 reply

Is Fernando Perez that good?

I’ve never heard of him until I today.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/P/Fernando-Perez.shtml
If he’s a defensive wizard he might be good, but as a 25 year old rookie I can’t imagine he’d be much of an improvement over Gutz.

Decatur - June 5, 2009 reply

Nando is a defensive wizard. He's runs good routes and may be the fastest guy on the Rays team. A noodle for an arm though.

He’s hurt right now and it’s a bad wrist injury, so that’s really bad, but when he was healthy he was a plus CF. His bat isn’t special, he’s a switch hitter who really struggles left handed, but is actually pretty good RH.

Tyler - June 6, 2009 reply

Also, where'd you hear this?

Decatur - June 5, 2009 reply

No, why is that amazing?

The Typical Idiot Fan - June 5, 2009 reply

I didn't think he was after Gutierrez specifically.

That’s why he was better than Bavasi. Bavasi would say “I want that guy” and go get him, regardless of the cost. Zduriencik said “I want a good centerfielder” and used options to get Gutierrez.

Quick question.

Was there any real reason for the Mets wanting both Putz and K-Rod? I know there bullpen was bad last year but was is the value in two closers. I feel that the Mariners by themselves prove having a lot of closer make don’t make a good bullpen.

Slow Country - June 5, 2009 reply

Their bullpen collapsed and they panicked.

Aaron Campeau - June 5, 2009 reply

It wasn't so much "getting two closers"

As much as it was getting “proven” arms to fortify the bullpen. Obviously the Mets had dreams of Green, Putz, K-Rod regularly working 7-8-9. After seeing their bullpen collapse causing their season to end in heartbreak twice in a row they wanted to nail down this issue as thoroughly as possible.

They should've hired Bavasi then.

Fin - June 5, 2009 reply

They'd never have to fret whether they were going to make the playoffs again!

seattlebruin - June 5, 2009 reply

I've often wondered how Bavasi would do as a pitching scout.

It’s incredible how the guy has such a keen eye for bullpen talent, yet he adores garbage SPers.

Not to rosterbate, but considering how their bullpen still isn’t stellar & how left handed Philadelphia is, a package of Washburn and Aardsma to the NYM makes a lot of sense to me.

katal - June 5, 2009 reply

So who would we be looking at?

In return for Aardsma and Washburn?

Slow Country - June 5, 2009 reply

Other players

Aaron Campeau - June 5, 2009 reply

Additionally, other players who are not already on the Mariners

and other players who will not play in the 2009 All-Star game

seattlebruin - June 5, 2009 reply

someone

that can play a little shortstop.

Betan is fielding like pre 08 Jeter and hitting like his mom, a good combination.

RollingWave - June 5, 2009 reply

Is it possible the Mets don't trust us anymore?

Or do teams just forgive and forget after getting jived in a trade?

Slow Country - June 5, 2009 reply

It's their own fault

caveat emptor

msb - June 5, 2009 reply

They knew what they were getting.

At least they really better have known.