Junior years of some top college hitters:
Alex Gordon, 2005 (Nebraska): 72 G, .372/.518/.715, 19 HR
Matt Wieters, 2007 (Georgia Tech): 57 G, .358/.490/.592, 10 HR
Pedro Alvarez, 2008 (Vanderbilt): 40 G, .317/.424/.532, 9 HR (NB: significantly better in freshman and sophomore seasons)
Dustin Ackley, 2009 (UNC): 62 G, .415/.515/.772, 21 HR
0 recs | 102 comments
So what you're saying is that Dustin Ackley is good
like really, really good
seattlebruin - June 8, 2009
Just to be annoying
Michael Aubrey: .420/.405/.733
Brad Wilkerson: .347/.538/.743
Jamie D’Antona: .360/.450/.752
davidcameron - June 8, 2009
And remember
I really like Ackley, and I’m rooting like crazy for the M’s to take him #2. But lots of guys have had big college numbers and failed to hit with wood.
davidcameron - June 8, 2009
Wilkerson had a pretty good few years
running OPSes of .840, .844, and .872 before falling off the cliff after his age-27 season; I wouldn’t exactly call him a guy who “failed to hit with wood.”
The Ancient Mariner - June 8, 2009
He had some chemical help.
davidcameron - June 8, 2009
I'd missed that.
The Ancient Mariner - June 8, 2009
Those will help Ackley, too
seattlebruin - June 8, 2009
At this point who hasn't?
Poochie - June 8, 2009
Brandon Fahey.
Phil Hatzenbuehler - June 8, 2009
We don't know that.
Poochie - June 8, 2009
Flintstones chewable vitamins are chemicals, I guess
seattlebruin - June 8, 2009
I guess they fail to hit with wood from performance anxiety.
Fin - June 8, 2009
I don't see how this is relevent
I was comparing Ackley to the consensus top college hitters over the past 3 drafts (completely forgetting about 2006 and Evan Longoria in the process!). I was not simply pointing out gaudy numbers out of context, and I put minimal stock in college stats anyway. Everyone here knows hitting at a professional level is an entirely different game, but I thought it was important to dispel the notion that Ackley is somehow unworthy of being the best college hitter in his class compared to guys from other years, without going into scouting reports. Hence ‘quick comparison’.
Graham MacAree - June 8, 2009
I think this is a great idea as a back-of-the-envelope kind of comparison
both to put Ackley in context and to show the volatility that some of the ’can’t miss’ guys have.
So…
1997: JD Drew, FSU, .455/?/.960 (jaw dropping)
1998: Pat Burrell, Mia. .442/?/.888 – career stats
1999: Eric Munson, USC. .392/?/? – soph. year. He missed time in soph/jr. seasons with hand injury
2000: Joe Borchard, Stanford, .333/???/.624 – 1st college bat taken, but at #12. No real ‘best college hitter’ before the draft.
2001: Mark Teixeira, GT: .427/.547/.772
2002: Khalil Greene, Clem.: .470/.552/.877 or Drew Meyer, USC (So. Caro), .359/.411/.512 (drafted more for fielding), or Nick Swisher, OSU: .348/.470/.620
2003: Rickie Weeks, Southern: .500/.619/.987 (video game stats at a small school/conference)
2004: Stephen Drew, FSU: .344/.458/.692
2005 (Gordon, above)
2006: Evan Longoria, LBSU: .353/.468/.602 (Some scouts preferred Drew Stubbs, Tex.: .342/.439/.580)
2007: Wieters, above
2008: Alvarez, above
marc w - June 8, 2009
How strong of a conference has the ACC been this year?
Robert - June 8, 2009
They have at least two teams in the CWS and one more eliminated in the Super Regionals
seattlebruin - June 8, 2009
I'd say strong
Between Clemson, Carolina, Virginia, FSU, GTech, and the Canes, with Wake being the only real doormat.
BHP - June 8, 2009
I watched Maryland play some, and they were rancid
However, some of the teams I saw them play were quite good. I didn’t get to see Ackley though.
Robert Lintott - June 8, 2009
I'm a little concerned about Ackley "only" running about a .100 IsoPa in college.
Phil Hatzenbuehler - June 8, 2009
When you're hitting .415 and slugging .770, why bother trying to draw walks?
seattlebruin - June 8, 2009
Excellent point.
Though I guess I’m just worried that he’s going to rely a little too much on hitting when he gets to the majors. I’d like to see how many pitches he saw her plate appearance in college. That might abate my fears a little if I saw he was working the count.
Phil Hatzenbuehler - June 8, 2009
From the (incredibly limited) at bats I've seen from him, working the count isn't a problem at all
seattlebruin - June 8, 2009
His HR on Saturday.
He worked a full count until he got a pitch he could drive. And then crushed a backdoor slider for a opposite field HR.
Scruffy Lefty - June 8, 2009
Should probably note that he started that AB down 0-2 as well
seattlebruin - June 8, 2009
I wouldn't worry about something like that in the least
College numbers don’t mean very much.
Jeff Sullivan - June 8, 2009
Hmmm...
.375/.468/.764 25 HR
If only he were a lefty bat and were more than a DH…
PositivePaul - June 8, 2009
I actually like Poythress
I grew up in GA and have stayed on top of the dawgs since moving back out this way and he is fun to watch hit, but you are right in the fact that we don’t exactly need another DH/1B in the system right now, but based on what he has shown so far(and I know it is just college stats) but I would grab him if he fell to the late 2nd early 3rd round.
n.crees - June 8, 2009
If he's there at 27, I'd nab him...
PositivePaul - June 8, 2009
I would definitly..
be tempted to but there are some many needs for the organization…you know what, what the hell, let’s grab at 27 if he is there.
n.crees - June 8, 2009
Don't worry...
…he won’t be there…
PositivePaul - June 8, 2009
Is there any way you can show the split of BB to IBB for all those players?
People that hit that well are often pitched around. Is Ackley drawing unintentional walks in 10% of his plate appearances or like 5%? It’s a huge difference.
lailaihei - June 8, 2009
Ackley:
8 IBB out of 50 total walks in 2009.
6 IBB out of 53 total walks in 2008.
2 IBB out of 30 total walks in 2007.
Phil Hatzenbuehler - June 8, 2009
So that puts him at a little less than average if his BB% translates straight to MLB.
Not great, but not bad.
lailaihei - June 8, 2009
And if his OPS translates straight to the majors, he's Barry Bonds with defense!
seattlebruin - June 8, 2009
Well our farm system hasn't exactly had great success in turning hackers into patient hitters...
So I was hoping he has already developed some plate discipline.
lailaihei - June 8, 2009
He has plate discipline if you just watch his at bats.
If he gets a hittable pitch he should swing at it.
Scruffy Lefty - June 8, 2009
Wait how does it put him less than average?
He’s at like 15%. Unless my math is off.
Scruffy Lefty - June 8, 2009
10% walks this year
seattlebruin - June 8, 2009
Unless my math is off...
seattlebruin - June 8, 2009
I was looking at last year.
Just cause I couldn’t find his AB total for this year.
Scruffy Lefty - June 8, 2009
250 AB
Link.
Phil Hatzenbuehler - June 8, 2009
His walk rate was about 16.2% this year.
50 BB/ ~308 PA
Phil Hatzenbuehler - June 8, 2009
Ok so I'm not crazy.
Scruffy Lefty - June 8, 2009
So in 700 PA he would have a 112 walks.
Still wondering how he would be below average.
Scruffy Lefty - June 8, 2009
Ok how did you get 10%?
Scruffy Lefty - June 8, 2009
You guys should just have a Math-Off to the death
tootthekazoo - June 8, 2009
By doing math wrong
seattlebruin - June 8, 2009
I'm going to mark this moment
as the first time I’ve ever out mathed someone.
Scruffy Lefty - June 8, 2009
Rec'd for this being a red letter day.
Phil Hatzenbuehler - June 8, 2009
Yeah, a big red F for sb
abender20 - June 8, 2009
50 BB in 308 PA
16.2% walks in 2009
seattlebruin - June 8, 2009
.511 wOBA
(though that’s using MLB linear weights)
Phil Hatzenbuehler - June 8, 2009
We're totally gonna draft James Paxton #2 now
seattlebruin - June 8, 2009
Game over, man! Game over!
Phil Hatzenbuehler - June 8, 2009
So he's not a hacker?
Scruffy Lefty - June 8, 2009
White people have plate discipline.
Vatinius - June 8, 2009
You have the Nationals e-mail, right?
I seem to remember hearing about an accident to a prospect that might interest the Nats and keep them from drafting him
seattlebruin - June 8, 2009
The system works!
Scruffy Lefty - June 8, 2009
Public school education fails again.
bluemax - June 8, 2009
Has anyone noticed that ESPN has added pitches seen to there box scores.
at least I think thats what it is.
Scruffy Lefty - June 8, 2009
So Kyle Gibson has a stress fracture in his right forearm
how would you guys feel about picking these players at 27?
James Paxton (LHP – Kentucky)
Matt Purke (LHP – Texas HS)
Kyle Gibson (RHP – Missouri)
Tanner Scheppers (RHP – St. Paul Saints)
seattlebruin - June 8, 2009
I saw that Purke wants something like
$7 million to keep him from going to College. No idea how that affects us.
bluemax - June 8, 2009
I would love to take four pitchers with our #27 pick.
Matthew - June 8, 2009
It would be the best value in the entire draft
Robert - June 8, 2009
It would instantly re-stock our farm system with talented starters!
in all seriousness, question should have read “how would you feel about getting one of these guys at 27?”
seattlebruin - June 8, 2009
Wow I don't think that's how it works
As a baseball expert I would have though you would be aware of this.
Poochie - June 8, 2009
If we could take like Aaron Crow at 2 for $3 million less than we have budgeted for Ackley or whatever
and it means we could get 2 premium guys that drop down due to signability instead, I’m all for it.
lailaihei - June 8, 2009
Pitchers are a far worse investment than hitters
You do not skip Ackley to take two less talented pitchers.
Graham MacAree - June 8, 2009
But... but...
baseball is 80% itching!
Poochie - June 8, 2009
The p button is a very important button and I wished it worked a little better
Poochie - June 8, 2009
I have a feeling you want a pitcher, not a belly itcher.
joof - June 8, 2009
Next he'll be wanting a catcher, not someone with some sort of rash on his midsection
pdb - June 8, 2009
Obligatory NO SCRUFFY NO
Faux - June 8, 2009
Heh.
Scruffy Lefty - June 8, 2009
For your sake, I hoe and ray you find a keyboard on which the '' button works roerly
seattlebruin - June 8, 2009
I hear diuretic can help with that...
PositivePaul - June 8, 2009
After watching enough games in person, I would agree wholeheartedly.
Faux - June 8, 2009
you guys are suckers
Poochie - June 8, 2009
That's why SBN added the refund button!
Robert - June 8, 2009
But Ackley is a hacker!
Scruffy Lefty - June 8, 2009
Ackley is JeffS?
Robert Lintott - June 8, 2009
That doesn't make sense.
Fin - June 8, 2009
I may be getting confused. I can't remember the handle of the guy who hacked in here posing as Jeff
I think JeffS was REAL Jeff for a time, but that is shrouded in the past.
Robert Lintott - June 8, 2009
In seriousness,
I would like any of those though maybe not thrilled with Paxton. He might still be there at 33.
Matthew - June 8, 2009
Pass . . . Pass . . . Pass . . . Pass
None of these guys look like future closer material.
G_ - June 8, 2009
Can we please try to get through tomorrow with not too many draft-a-closer-in-the-first-round jokes, please?
they’re getting close to Fat Silva dead memes
seattlebruin - June 8, 2009
This one was pretty well played though
Robert Lintott - June 8, 2009
I can't believe this got rec'd
Poochie - June 8, 2009
Well if there are more recs on bad comments, that means the relative value of recs on good comments goes up
so in short, it helps your rec+
seattlebruin - June 8, 2009
I think you need to show me the formula
Poochie - June 8, 2009
That would involve creating the formula, so no, that's OK
seattlebruin - June 8, 2009
Willie Bloomquist: 60 G .394/.495/.646 10 HR
ConorGlassey - June 8, 2009
And that's only his 1999 slash line.
1998: .414/.521/.582
1997: .356/.400/.530
Phil Hatzenbuehler - June 8, 2009
You're avoiding the real question;
does Ackley have the makeup to be a major league closer?
Bearskin Rugburn - June 8, 2009
Is Grady Sizemore a valid "best-case" for Ackley?
They’re about the same size, and speedy, lefty centerfielders.
Manzanillos Cup - June 8, 2009
Probably not as good as a CF defender.
Scruffy Lefty - June 8, 2009
Markakis
lailaihei - June 8, 2009
I'll be happy with Johnny Damon. I don't think he'll ever be as good offensively or defensively
as Sizemore
Rudy4three - June 8, 2009
Oh no!
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/3/5/782549/strasburg-s-third-start#12804367
seattlebruin - June 8, 2009
Too soon
abender20 - June 8, 2009
It's never too soon
Kermit. - June 8, 2009
Somehow I missed this the first time around.
Thanks for linking to it.
Phil Hatzenbuehler - June 8, 2009
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