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Lookout Landing

46-42, Chart

7_12_medium

Biggest Contribution: Erik Bedard, +23.5%
Biggest Suckfest: Jack Hannahan, -26.2%
Most Important AB: Shelton single, +21.3%
Most Important Pitch: Cruz homer, -17.0%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): +31.1%
Total Contribution by Lineup: +14.9%
Total Contribution by Opposition: +4.0%
(What is this chart?)

0 recs  |  251 comments

Comments

Two games and Hannahan is already a suckfest.
Two games and Hannahan is already a suckfest.
Don't worry

He has a great TBERA

Two of the same posts.

You just had to say that to add more exactness.

Or, as Brian Eno one said, "Repetition is change."
Batista getting the W

W for WANKER

I hate it when undeserving pitchers get the win.

Yeah, he's been horrible this year.
Somewhere

Kevin Slowey sheds a single tear.

Kevin Slowey is very good.
Please elaborate.
He's very good at pitching.
Striking guys out and not walking anyone.

He got lucky with wins, sure, but he’s still quite good.

18% above average this year, despite pitching a few games with an injury.
Yeah

He has good control, but he is an extreme flyball pitcher who doesn’t have a very sexy FIP

I'm looking at tRA.

His FIP is above average anyway. 5.00 K/BB despite a few terrible starts when he was obviously hurt. He’s not the best pitcher in the world, and the flyballs will hurt him sometimes, but this isn’t a junkballer. He has an above-average K rate and walks nobody.

FIP tends to underrate non-strikeout guys

and tRA scales them much more accurately

Fortunately wins are 100% meaningless
Well, for individual pitchers, yeah
I don't buy that

Wins have to have a reasonable correlation to successful pitching ability, even if there are better ways to determine the abilities of a pitcher then wins

Wait what?
You see what I did there?
Starting pitchers, yeah, given a million caveats.

Win-vulture relievers, not so sure.

So I exaggerated
Makes me wonder if you were exaggerating the Texas Rangers pitching is 100% terrible comment.
Pitcher wins and Club wins have a 1-1 correlation.
He didn't pitch poorly, so whatever.
Somewhere, Julio Mateo is proud
Since when do M's prospects begin being patient. Liddi has drawn 2 and Gillies has one as well
Zduriencik threatens them with having to take Silva out to lunch.

Minor leaguers don’t get paid that much.

What a GREAT GAME to attend.
Wooo - glad you enjoyed it!

I am super envious!

And the Angels swept the Yankees!

Good Sunday.

You are just a ball of contradictions

what are you going to do with yourself when Seattle gets good enough to seriously threaten the Angels?

YES

I must say that it seemed a lot more full than it normally did (IE earlier in the year + the last five years).

People are starting to get excited again…

Yeah

I had to park farther out than normal, especially for a Sunday.

We are in contention going into the AS Break!

Can I get a WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

46-42 in the first half.

Not bad Mariners. Not bad at all.

I am a glass half empty kind of guy.

The Mariners are -18 runs in RS / RA department. They have been extremely lucky in 1 run games. The bullpen has been lucky as hell. You are not going to have 3 starters stay at below 3 ERA. Branyan is regressing, Franklin is overperforming based on BABIP. And after starting the season 12-6, the Mariners have actually been performing below 500 at 34-36. 34-36 is the right winning percentage based on RS / RA. This is a below average baseball team, folks.

Really? Based on this comment I would have pegged you as an optimist
all I am saying is they should sell Washburn and Bedard.
I didn't get that from your comment at all
I am saying the Mariners and pretenders, not contenders.
The AL West is decidedly mediocre and the gap between the Ms and the other clubs is no where near as great as you think.
I question

That the West is weak, although mediocre might be right. The West has a darn good record particularly against the East, so far.

Not to mention kudos for the M’s pitching this series.

Playing well for a short stretch of time against the AL East doesn't change the fact that no team in the AL West is very good.
I don't think the West is as weak as it's been made out to be either.

Certainly not as good as the Eastern teams, but is the gap really that large between us and the Central?

The Angels have really played better since all those injured pitchers came back, am I wrong without checking their record?

What’s their record since John Lackey came back?

They've been really lucky
They've been awesome ever since Ervin Santana came back.
You have no knowledge to whether or not they are trying to sell those pitchers
People here are always going to be ultimate downers though

If we ever win a World Series you guys are going to be picking the hell out of the team and predicting ultimate failure.

Yeah but when shit is going well, most of the people here still get excited

Just look at Jeff’s posts after Thursday night’s win.

That's not the least bit true.
Yeah, that's probably a little overboard.

People here are nothing if not RABID M’s fans.

One can be critical and still hope and pray for a successful squad to grace our presence every once in a blue moon.

This is false

we would all be in beer comas for 6 months from celebrating.

The rest of the division is terrible and the Angels have been the luckiest team in baseball this year.
Nick Adenhart?
Jesus....
I just realized how that seems.

I meant that was pretty unlucky. But on the field they’ve been extremely lucky.

Nick Adenhart's driver was drunk
You are using the original pythagorean record calculation

The most up to date Pythagorean record calculation uses a dummy variable called GRIFFEY1!!!! which is an adjustment of 8.4 wins which is why your calculations are off

I love the whole dummy variable concept. I've run into that before.

And before.

Somebody called in to NY Vinny and told him about the negative run differential.

And Vinny went off on the guy.

He wouldn't even let him talk
My favorite part was how he told him to go play on his Wii?

All I could think was “seriously?”

Yeah he's a retard

That caller sounded like a dick though

I thought NY Vinny is a Mets fan. Talk about disappointment in baseball, none

bigger than the Mets.

Since May 27, we're 25-16.

I can cherry pick too.

Since July 11 we're 2-0.

Undefeated!

It is common knowledge in baseball that how you play after

Jeff Bagwell and Frank Thomas’ Birthday is what really matters.

Hmm...

For some reason I remember that 12-6 start being made a big deal because it increased are playoff odds greatly. And it was mentioned on several occasions that playing .500 ball from that point on could be all that is needed. Well, guess what? Those people have so far been correct in their analysis.

Now if we could somehow figure out who those people were? Hmm…

our* playoff odds
BaseRuns, coming into today

RS: 362
RA: 360

You’re misinformed.

Holy shit really?

I thought our pitching was not as good as our hitting is bad. Or wait, that must be with fielding figured in. Anyway, wooo,

Though, to be fair, we’re still overplaying the pythag. Not by much, not at all, but we are.

Yes, but Pythag is a worse measurement than BaseRuns.

And hence, irrelevant.

Is it heinously bad that until just now I had no idea what BaseRuns were?

New stat? Or am I just way behind on some obvious old stuff?

It's been around for a while but it doesn't get much play
Wait, our Pythagorean record has caused us to lose 18 games off our schedule?

AHHHHH BLACK HOLE SUCKING AWAY GAMES RUN FOR YOUR LIVES

Wait, you guys take pythagoran seriously?

Garbage statistic. I don’t have a problem with many stats, but pythag? Bill James sucks.

And all the fans in the back said everyone attack!
Care to put a little more explanation into that?
Do you use cERA as well?
I think most people here take Pythag record with a grain of salt.

It’s got problems but so does everything else. What’ss you beef in particular?

Pythag is a quick and dirty formula to figure out expected wins.

It’s not perfect, but for something you can guesstimate in your head in ten seconds, it’s not half bad

God damn, looks like we're in for more of the Angels winning

They play Oakland followed by Kansas City after the break.

We play Cleveland, then KC, then more Cleveland.
Err, Detroit, not KC.
I didn't say we were going to start losing

I’m saying the Angels are going to keep winning

Cleveland has been a big disappointment, but that

doesn’t mean they are a bad baseball team though.

I'm so glad you're the ultimate judge of who is good or bad.
Kansas has Yuni and WFB now. They will have a great 2nd half.
Just like the 2007 Mariners!

I can’t wait for Lolla-powder-blueza.

God I hope they get swept by both teams.

Not just so we gain ground but also so they realize they’re not this good.

They're better than the A's and Royals though
But the Yankees are better than the Angels and look how that turned out.
We'll have to wait and see I guess
The Yankees are probably the 3rd best team in their division talent wise. I think Tampa will

really pick it up in the 2nd half.

Yeah, but 3 of the 4 best teams in baseball are in that division.

A while ago, it was 4 of five, but I haven’t checked recently.

We have a better record than the Blue Jays
Roy Halladay, is that you?
Which is entirely a product of the Blue Jays playing in the ALE.
You're probably right

I’m just sayin.

I predict the Rays will fall out of contention real soon.
Second-best run differential in the AL.

They’re good.

I predict they will have a losing record in those two series
By golly I hope you're right
Do you guys have a problem with Maddon picking Carlos Pena over Russ Branyan for the AS game replacement for Dustin Pedroia?
Yes

Branyan has been significantly better than Pena in nearly every category

Not HR and RBI tough, hehe.
Joe Maddon is an idiot

He already made terrible picks, and now he proves he’s a homer. Figgins and Kinsler should have gotten in before Branyan. But yeah, I hope Maddon breaks his ankle running out of the dugout during a pitching change. As if his frosted white hair and glasses weren’t bad…

It's really not that big of a deal.
Yeah, he's really bad.
Let's rape him
Rape train!
I'm still winded from the last party.
Johnson was fucking asking for it.
He was remarkably thankful, wasn't he?
I mean, a continental breakfast for us the following morning - I didn't know how to react.
What a nice guy.
His cERA was high that night.
Cunning Extra Rape Attempts
No because the Allstar game is meaningless and homer picks happen all the time
This time it counts!
Not particularly.
No

Because since the Rays won the WS, they get to pick their own guys. In fact, I am not surprised that the WS is marketed in that respect.
Because you want to see them undeservingly make the All-Star team next season…this time, it counts!

Wait, what?
The Rays lost the WS.
Make it to the WS.

Whatever.

It's only a big deal because players generally get bonuses for going to the ASG.

Branyan deserves a bonus for what he has done this season, but so do dozens of other players.

Not in the slightest.
Is this guy a shark or what?
Is it Planet Express, master?
We have a whole herd of sharks
Mr. Rabble, whose contract is worse: Barry Zito or Alfonso Soriano?
My real name is not Greg Rabble, by the way

I would say Zito’s

I am a Cubs fan, and I can't wait to get rid of Soriano. It's a ridiculous signing.
Oh, so you were the fan at today's game with a Cubs hat?
And the M's almost signed Mr. Zito

for 99M. Thank god. If that went through, we would have 3.5 more years of Zito to go in his contract, and we would be set back even further.

And I actually wanted that signing to happen,
Being fearless is dangerous.
I woulld not have owned up to that

happily, I’d never have to.

That offseason was the first that I began to explore USSM, LL and other more . . . advanced sources of information.

I admit, I was pretty shocked to hear people say that signing Zito would be a disaster. I didn’t think it was a no-brainer to sign him, but I didn’t think it would be terrible either. But I read enough and came around. That offseason convinced me that there’s something to all these easy-to-make-fun-of acronyms.

I'd have to say my logic follows with yours.

I was disappointed at the time. I was also disappointed that the Mariners couldn’t pull the trigger on Jason Schmidt too. On the one hand, Bavasi’s lack of negotiating skills saved us from some suck, but I believe it ultimately led to a whole lot more suck.

Neither Zito nor Schmidt would have saved us from any suck, though.
I also really wanted us to sign Schmidt.

Woops.

Same here, except (and you all can tar and feather me for this)

the reason why I wanted Zito was because he….was rated 90+ in some old EA Sports baseball game I had for PC and generally gave me hell in franchise mode. Woo.

The horrible thing is that I'd rather have Zito's current contract than Silva's

ugh

I'm with you on this.
Yeah at least Zito pitches alright sometimes.
Plus lefty in Safeco!
Mr. Rabble

How many licks does it take to get to the center of a tootsie pop?

I'll tell you in 30 minutes
...Well?
Still going at it. Greg is gentle.
His name is Griffin... And I like that in a guy.
I enjoy the fact that we are 4 games above .500 again.
This has always confused me

Aren’t we only two games over .500? It’s not like two games just disappear if we assume they weren’t won.

What
If we were .500 right now, the record would be 44-44
Yes
So 46 wins (or 42 losses) is only two games away from that

Where do the extra two games come from?

They take the 2 between 44 and 42, and the 2 between 44 and 46, and add them together.
I think you guys are thinking about it like a scale

Where you’re moving games from the win side to the loss side to make it even, or balance things out.

How many games would it take to return to .500?

It would take 4 losses for the Mariner’s to be back to .500 therefore, they are 4 games over .500

That was my same reaction.
It weirds me out, too.

We’re four games over .500, but a .500 team would be two games behind us in the standings.

I choose not to defy convention

we’re four over, dammit.

Now I'm looking at this, and looking at this. I have to go now before I break my brain.

I’ve thought about this before, and had it all sorted out. Now you’re putting me back into spin cycle.

Games over .500 is "how many more wins do you have than losses"

games behind is “if the trailing team were to win every game and the leading team to lose every game, how long would it take for them to be even?”

The Mariners are 46-42, so four games over .500.

If the Angels were to lose their next four games and the Mariners won them, both the Angels and the Mariners would be tied at eight games over .500 – thus we are currently four games out of first.

I've always thought somebody could make a good "Who's on first" type routine out of this

Abbott and Costello had another routine, where Abbott works out their ages so he’s eventually older than Costello (or vice versa, I forget which was the younger one).

Kind of like this

28/7 = 13

Wait... why?
I'd love to know.
.

Link

I understand the concept.

I still find it stupid.

I guess I've never really thought about it
It seems that Chris Shelton's goatee is uneven.
Brigham Young commanded him to shave it that way.
Anyone happen to hear about Hyphen's velocity in TAC today?

Results were good, and I much prefer him to Olson.

Yeah me too he's so much sexier.
I got an RRS baseball card recently.

I was very happy.

I find the picture confusing.

And on some level disturbing. Can I get an explanation?

Shelton looks like a fish
That's a shark
Well it's a hammerhead shark but you can't really see that anymore in the picture
That I'm on board with.
Sharks are fish.
Really?

I think he looks more like a pig.

He thrashes about like a shark when confused and angry?
Wait, Jim Street said the M's are last in AL in defense. What statistics showed M's are last in defense, number of errors?

On seattlemariners.com

Jim Street said this:

The Mariners went into the three-day All-Star break on Monday with a winning record and involved in a three-team race in the AL West. They have overcome injuries, bereavements and slumps, rank last in the AL in defense but first in pitching.

As long as the pitching holds up, the defense improves and the situational hitting remains solid, there’s a good chance that Mariners fans will be treated to a fun-filled second half.

Also, interesting quote from Jarrod Washburn:

Can the pitching be as good the second half as it was in the first half?

“I think we can be as good, but I am not sure we can be any better,” Washburn said. "I don’t know that Felix can be better than he has been. I don’t think I can be better than I have been. I think Bedard could do better, just because when he gets healthy he will be able to go deeper into games.

“I don’t know if the bullpen can be any better because it has been so good anyway. Everyone has been pitching so well and everyone has to work hard to continue to do that.”

Jarrod Washburn basically said he could not pitch better than he's been in the 1st half. Trade him now!
Please do not post the same thing in two different threads unless you mis-posted the first time

it clutters them up

It's ESPN's MLB Team Fielding Stats

They have the Ms 3rd worst after the Nats and the Diamondbacks.

Note also that ESPN’s Individual Player Fielding Stats (qualified) are
  1B Russell Branyan: 3rd worst
  2B Jose Lopez: Worst
  3B Adrian Beltre: Bottom half
  SS Yuniesky Bettancourt: 5th worst
  CF Franklin Guttierez: 5th worst
  RF Ichiro Suzuki: Bottom half

So these stats are a joke.

Well, to be honest Adrian has been useless the last few games.
Yet Betancourt's actually gotten better.
He looks great not here.
How the fuck do they figure Franklin Gutierrez 5th worst?

He’s been the second best defender in all of baseball behind Nyjer Morgan

Blackest name in baseball?
Khalil Greene.
Reggie Willits. I honestly didn't know
I liike to call him nigga stole my organ
In my head, I call him that in my head
Try yelling it out loud next time.

Don’t explain, if anyone asks.

Well that's just fucking stupid, You yell "nigga" in say, Queen Anne, and you're going to please an out of work housewife.

But you yell that in Seattle international district, and you have a gaggle of angry Asians who say they can dance better than black guys. Be careful.

Gaylord Perry? Wait, that's the gayest name in baseball.
Shelley Duncan's right up there
Washburn's right, the pitching isn't going to get any better.

That’s part of the reason both he and Bedard need to be traded. We’ve got their pitching in relief right now. We need some dependable offense, and hpefully a SS with both defense and offense.

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