I'll be honest with you - today was supposed to be a happier day. The Mariners were supposed to win the series and come out of it knocking on the door of first place, with the Angels having struggled against a superior Yankees team. It was supposed to be the series that took the M's off the edge of the race and put them right in the middle of it. Instead, LAnaheim somehow swept New York and the M's find themselves still four back of the lead. That's annoying. On the other hand, there's nothing you can do about other people's games and the Mariners still took three of four from a team above them, so we don't need to dwell on the negative. It's just...dammit, Yankees.
- After months of denial, I think it's time we just admit it: the 2009 Seattle Mariners play Angel baseball. Classic Angel baseball. The kind of baseball that feels hilarious to root for, and the kind of baseball that feels humiliating to lose to. If I were a Rangers fan, I'd probably be pretty pissed off right now. Think about some of the biggest plays this afternoon:
-Andruw Jones lines into an awkward and fluky outfield double play in the first
-Ichiro leads off the first with a bloop single and later scores the first run
-Ronny Cedeno extends a rally with an infield single to the pitcher
-Ichiro follows with an RBI infield single
-Branyan follows with an RBI walk
-Griffey reaches on a two-out error and later scores on a broken-bat single over short
-Rob Johnson follows Chris Shelton's bloop with another RBI bloop to the same place
The Rangers were patient against Erik Bedard, hit a couple homers, limited the M's to pretty weak contact, and lost. That has to be infuriating. I don't mean to suggest that they deserved to win, mind you - the Mariners got good pitching and some solid at bats and defensive plays when they needed them - but today's five runs rated a Mike's on a scale from wine coolers to lab-grade ethanol.
- It's getting to the point where I don't think I'll ever feel as comfortable about Erik Bedard as I did in that first at bat of 2008. I love his talent, and I know that when he's on top of his game he's arguably the best pitcher in baseball, but he just can't seem to settle into a steady groove. He'll look as sharp as ever in one start, but then the next time he takes the hill he'll come out and pitch like this. Bedard wasn't bad today. Let's make that clear. He overcame some early struggles and defensive miscues to throw 5.2 innings of effective, contact-deterring baseball. But while he threw 26 of his final 34 pitches for strikes, the first 59 offerings made him look all kinds of shaky. His control was all over the place (30 strikes, 29 balls) and he just couldn't seem to hit that spot in the inside corner against righties, and he was only able to get off the hook thanks to some good defense and timely swinging strikes.
It's possible that this is the version of Erik Bedard we'll live with until his days as a Mariner are done. And that's by no means a problem. He's plenty good the way he is. But he'll just have these extended stretches where he looks so much better, and they always make me long for more. We know what Bedard can do when he's right. Back in 2007 he punched the league's balls up into its throat. All I want is to see that guy show up a little more often. God knows that's what we paid for.
- On a related note, Bedard threw a handful of good changeups today, using one to sit down Ian Kinsler to lead off the game and another to get ahead of Marlon Byrd. I almost forgot he had one. I think so did he.
- All series long it felt like the Rangers were working with a game plan of pitching Russell Branyan hard inside. I don't know if that's a good idea, or even if it was true in the first place, but if it was, I imagine it was a reaction to the fact that he's been so good when he's gotten his arms extended. Working him in shortens his swing, which could, I dunno, make him worse. Of note is that he pounded an inside pitch deep into the RF stands last night. I'm not used to seeing him pull the ball like that, but he showed that he's certainly capable.
- Whenever Kenji Johjima has to come out to the mound to talk to the pitcher, it's because they're not on the same page. Whenever Rob Johnson has to come out to the mound to talk to the pitcher, as he did on several occasions with Bedard today, it's because he's trying to calm him down. People have really taken this Rob-Johnson-has-mad-intangibles thing and run with it. Which, hey, who knows, he might. It's possible that Johnson really is such a good catcher that he improves the performance of the pitching staff. But given that Kenji's a better hitter, a better thrower, and no worse of a blocker, you better be pretty damn sure about yourself if you want to give Rob more playing time. It would really help his case if he could hit a couple more dingers.
- Ken Griffey Jr. is seeing fewer pitches in the zone now than he did in his first couple seasons as a Red. I don't know how often we've heard the broadcasters say "and (Pitcher X) wanted no part of Griffey right there" after a walk. Which should tell you a little something about how much pitchers care about the scouting reports, at least when it comes to facing an icon. Team scouts and analysts could tell the day's starter that Griffey is dead, clinically dead, and the Mariners had to roll him into the batter's box in a wheelbarrow, and he doesn't even have a bat, and the pitcher would still freak out because it's Ken Griffey Jr! and nibble around the edges.
- Miguel Batista needed all of nine pitches to allow a home run and record four outs. The outing was like a little bouillon cube of his Mariner career.
- Not the greatest day for Jack Hannahan, who got charged with two errors and deserved a third all in the span of eight batters, and went 0-4 at the plate. He also made some nifty stops, so it wasn't a total loss, but if it weren't for Bedard bearing down and escaping some jams, he'd probably be drawing a lot more criticism for his performance. I love how every time a player commits an error he, without fail, will look at his glove. It's like when a player swings and misses and looks at his bat. Guess what: it's not the glove or the bat that's defective. It's you. Maybe what you should be looking at instead is your brain. Which can be troublesome, but there are always MRI machines available, and I'm sure Bedard's got a couple by his locker.
"but today's five runs rated a Mike's on a scale from wine coolers to lab-grade ethanol."
One of many quotes in this article that sums up why I love Lookout Landing so much.
Fin - July 12, 2009
"Ronny Cedeno picks up an RBI infield single""
His wasn’t an RBI, just loaded the bases for Ichiro. Branyan’s bases loaded walk might fit into that list too, though
gregrabble - July 12, 2009
Whoops a doodle
Jeff Sullivan - July 12, 2009
Hannahan running high on adrenaline yesterday, and so today's drop-off?
msb - July 12, 2009
"After months of denial, I think it's time we just admit it: the 2009 Seattle Mariners play Angel baseball."
Welcome to the Dark Side. :D
TheOptimist - July 12, 2009
HOW DOES IT WORK
Jeff Sullivan - July 12, 2009
It's like the dark matter of baseball
OlSalty - July 12, 2009
Does this mean that we'll incredibly outperform our Pythag and win 100 games?
Hopefulmsfan - July 12, 2009
Yeah but Anaheim will out-Angel us
And win 112 games.
Snowman1025 - July 12, 2009 via mobile
...Yeah, sure.
*2008 results not typical. Side effects of Angels baseball may include dizziness, drymouth, accusations of ‘luck’, being ignored by ESPN, and losing to the Red Sox in the playoffs. >_>
TheOptimist - July 12, 2009
Playoffs!
Jeff Sullivan - July 12, 2009
God it must be tough being in the LA media market.
How do you guys get any air time at all out there in the desert?
Matthew - July 13, 2009
If the 209 M's play 2002 Angels baseball I will take it in a heartbeat
pdb - July 12, 2009
I'd pay a pretty penny to see the 209 M's play
seattlebruin - July 12, 2009
Now they REALLY played old-fashioned baseball.
SethGrandpa - July 12, 2009
It really crowds the outfield but I think it's the future of the game
pdb - July 12, 2009
.
PositivePaul - July 12, 2009
Late.
About 1730 years or so.
SethGrandpa - July 12, 2009
You mean early.
CapSea - July 13, 2009
No, these guys would've been about 1730 year to late to see the 209 Mariners.
SethGrandpa - July 13, 2009
The wheel was a big step for away games.
kevin_ess - July 12, 2009
Better than the plague-shortened season of 194 that's for sure
OlSalty - July 12, 2009
"Player Grok has dysentery."
kevin_ess - July 12, 2009
Oh NO!
Not the Bosporan Inquisition! Nobody expects the Bosporan Inquisition!
PositivePaul - July 12, 2009
"Player Cassius has typhus like symptoms."
JAH - July 12, 2009
The worst part is rooting for a team from Gaul. The Media never gives us any coverage. Stupid Mediterranean Coast Bias.
joof - July 13, 2009
Welcome back!
seattlebruin - July 12, 2009
Thanks. Working a job that gets me up at 4 in the morning, central time, means
I haven’t had as much time to post places as I would like, here or HH.
TheOptimist - July 12, 2009
You know, the internet is open 24 hours a day.
Vatinius - July 12, 2009
Yes, but I tend to hang out in the game topics.
And those tend to only be around for a few hours. :)
TheOptimist - July 12, 2009
This is going to be a tough season to play out.
We are certainly in the running in the West. Come on Angels, fail already. I don’t know much help Z can find here. Certainly a power, left-hand hitting defensive SS would be ideal, I just can’t find that guy. I’m guessing if Z can find him Bedard is gone (or at least I hope he’s gone). Washburn is also expendable, but Bedard first, if you have to throw in Wash that works too. I hope can find what I cannot. We’re still not out of contenttion, although it will take a little bit of magic to win the West.
Sinking Away - July 12, 2009
SODO MOJO!
M'sin.. - July 12, 2009
Interesting quotes from Jim Street on Mariners defense, you might be surprise to hear this.
on seattlemariners.com
Jim Street wrote:
What defensive stat did he use to come up with the conclusion that the M’s are last in defense in the AL?
brian_sun - July 12, 2009
Probably fielding percentage.
Wilder. - July 12, 2009
He most likely used the common mainstream defense metrics, errors and fielding percentage.
By those measures alone yes we’re probably one of the worst defensive units in baseball. What those metrics don’t measure is how well a team gets to balls in play, which a stat like RZR or UZR measures.
BrianL - July 12, 2009
I don't know, it looks to me that Jim Street is a bad beat writer without doing a lot of thoughtful research.
brian_sun - July 12, 2009
Most writers for official MLB sites aren't going to be using advanced metrics in their analysis.
If you’re looking for good beat coverage, follow Stone, Baker, and Drayer.
BrianL - July 12, 2009
Based on the fact, that the average fan will not know what the heck they are talking about.
M'sin.. - July 12, 2009
The only problem though.
Is that then the average fan will actually think our defense is bad and be mad because we’re built for defense. Then again, I would hope the average fan sees our outfield and 3rd base and realizes field % is stupid.
Hopefulmsfan - July 12, 2009
Yeah, good point.
M'sin.. - July 12, 2009
Not likely.
I got into an argument with a guy a while ago because he thought Adrian Beltre was bad at defense because he makes too many errors. Also that Yuni was a great player, and Jose Lopez was the second best second basemen in the AL behind Pedroia.
A lot of fans, like a lot of people, aren’t all that smart. They tend to believe what the writers say.
Vatinius - July 12, 2009
Jim Street IS a bad beat writer...
I really really really wish Corey Brock hadn’t been able to land the dream job in San Diego. Didn’t Street come out of retirement to re-claim the job or something like that???
Jim Street make Geoff Baker look like Joe Posnaski…
PositivePaul - July 12, 2009
DING DING DING
appleshampoo - July 12, 2009
Jarrod Washburn's quote from the same article:
Trade him now, even himself doesn’t think he can pitch any better in the second half.
brian_sun - July 12, 2009
Kudos to Jarrod for being realistic.
He and Felix would be hard-pressed to be any more successful than they’ve been.
Teej - July 12, 2009
I think he really meant to say he can't be any more luckier than he was in the first half.
brian_sun - July 12, 2009
And kudos to him for knowing that.
Teej - July 12, 2009
There have been several broadcasters on the feeds from opposing teams that have claimed the same thing.
We assumed they were counting up the infield errors.
msb - July 12, 2009
Thank God our pitching is so amazing to bail out our terrible defense.
Hopefulmsfan - July 12, 2009
Uh...
Griffey didn’t score. Josh Wilson, who ran for him, did.
I Lick Squirrels - July 12, 2009
Semantics.
Kirk - July 12, 2009 via mobile
Those poor Jews.
kevin_ess - July 12, 2009
Haha.
M'sin.. - July 12, 2009
Hmm...
Don’t we all do that, though? I used to play pool seriously. If I screwed up an easy shot you would have seen me break loose the joint in my cue and reseat it…and probably chalk up, even if if there was no miscue.
When we were young and got screwed by Battletoads we threw the controller across the room in anger. I don’t think it’s really blaming the equipment, it’s trying to make sense of how our input failed to properly translate.
Sidi - July 12, 2009
Fuck Battletoads.
Goose - July 12, 2009
That was a great movie.
kevin_ess - July 12, 2009
I do this with my tennis racket all the time.
Wilder. - July 12, 2009
Every bad swim I have I yell at my swim suit.
It looks odd though.
Kirk - July 12, 2009 via mobile
Yep, yelling "WHY WON'T YOU WORK?" While staring down at your swimsuit is bound to get you some strange looks.
CapSea - July 13, 2009
This is what I was getting at.
Rec’d
Kirk - July 13, 2009
Instrumentalists do this too
Clarinetists and saxophonists are notorious for fiddling with their reed if the squeak.
Robert Lintott - July 13, 2009
Why is it that Yuniesky Betancourt is off the unintentional walks board?
M'sin.. - July 12, 2009
I would guess, now is this is a huge guess and it's probably completely wrong!
But I would guess it’s because he’s no longer on the Mariners
gregrabble - July 12, 2009
You're a madman.
kevin_ess - July 12, 2009
Jamie Moyer sure is pitching great for the Mariners this year.
M'sin.. - July 12, 2009
The point is that he is a pitcher
Aaron Campeau - July 12, 2009
Ok.
M'sin.. - July 12, 2009
We need a third example. How many walks has Jeff drawn?
Unintentional, of course.
JamMasterJesus - July 12, 2009
Well, the thing of it is, is that Jack Z is constructing a roster that isn't completely terribad at drawing walks, so the point is becoming moot.
JAH - July 12, 2009
2+2 = 4
Matthew - July 13, 2009
Also he's no longer our problem and I'm happy believing he never existed.
CapSea - July 13, 2009
I think other than a few bad starts in May, Jamie has been
pitching OK. He’s 46, and he’s a 5, 6 inning pitcher now. He’s OK as a 5th starter, but they have such an incredible offense that he may win 15 or 16 games with a 6 ERA. He’s the anti-washburn in the run support department.
brian_sun - July 13, 2009
I was talking about Yuni.
CapSea - July 13, 2009
sorry, I thought you were talking about the 2nd worst starter in baseball this year: Jamie Moyer.
brian_sun - July 13, 2009
Armando Galarraga
Vicente Padilla, Trevor Cahill, Livan Hernandez, Kyle Davies, Micah Owings, Brian Tallet, Todd Wellemeyer, Shairon Martis, Kevin Millwood, Bronson Arroyo, Scott Kazmir, Fausto Carmona, Andy Pettitte, Brandon McCarthy, Matt Harrison, Chris Young, Andy Sonnanstine, Ian Snell, David Huff, Jeremy Guthrie, Tim Wakefield, Jon Garland, Jarrod Washburn, Barry Zito and Jeff Niemann all show you to be wrong.
Evaluate pitchers better
Matthew - July 13, 2009
Stop linking to malicious websites, please
seattlebruin - July 13, 2009
He may have been going by fangraphs, where Moyer's the third worst by WAR.
marc w - July 13, 2009
That would explain the 2nd worst part...
Matthew - July 13, 2009
Fair enough. Just saying he MAY not be going by ERA or something, and if Fangraphs
and Statcorner disagree, it may not be worth a dismissive comment like that.
If it was based on wins/ERA, yeah, sure.
marc w - July 13, 2009
WAR is a bad way to evaluate pitchers.
Matthew - July 13, 2009
I've been saying this ever since I invented win value
Poochie - July 13, 2009
Is there a good value stat like WAR to use to evaluate pitcher?
joof - July 13, 2009
WAR based on tRA, I suppose.
Matthew - July 13, 2009
VORP
Bearskin Rugburn - July 13, 2009
I know they are 2 separate trades.
But does Franklin Gutierrez made up for BOTH Asdrubal Cabrera and Luis Valbuena? In other words, is Franklin G’s value equal or less than those 2 players combined? Not that the Indians will ever do it, but if Cleveland offer those 2 players for Franklin G, would Jack Z take it?
brian_sun - July 13, 2009
Oops, I forgot we also gave Cleveland Shin-soo chu in a different trade.
Boy, that guy sure would look pretty good in LF right about now. 402 OBP and 882 OPS. We gave him up for what? That’s 3 players we could really use in the Cleveland lineup. Thanks, Bill Bavasi.
brian_sun - July 13, 2009
Choo
dear God, he is Korean, not Chinese
seattlebruin - July 13, 2009
Also, I can't believe that that's what I found wrong with this comment
seattlebruin - July 13, 2009
Regardless, he's just a young player with old player skills
drawing tons of walks, strikes out a lot and hit some HR. He’s their Russell Branyan.
brian_sun - July 13, 2009
That's not really what old player skills are.
Because he also has 13 stolen bases (speed) and hits for average. An explanation of what old player skills are can be found here.
CapSea - July 13, 2009
I wish Jose Lopez would develop some of those. He's got the lack of speed down pat.
JamMasterJesus - July 13, 2009
Jose Lopez is a fucking star
seattlebruin - July 13, 2009
Banned.
JamMasterJesus - July 13, 2009
One of these days somebody is going to tease him, and he's gonna snap
And I want to be there to see it all go down
Kermit. - July 13, 2009
I can see why people troll people now.
JamMasterJesus - July 13, 2009
What
kevin_ess - July 13, 2009
I can see why people piss people off on purpose.
And I’m fully aware of his awesomeness. Don’t worry.
JamMasterJesus - July 13, 2009
sb-baiting is the new Robert-baiting
seattlebruin - July 13, 2009
I prefer NOLA baiting.
Even though I’m starting to like Cedeno, it’s really easy.
joof - July 13, 2009
You prefer NOLAbaiting because sb-baiting is the same thing as joof-baiting
seattlebruin - July 13, 2009
Except for Twilight
seattlebruin - July 13, 2009
Fun fact!
I watched Twilight the other day. I haven’t read the books, but the movie entertained and intrigued me.
joof - July 13, 2009
Seriously?
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 13, 2009
I was kinda forced into it. =(
joof - July 13, 2009
I've just never heard intrigued as a Twilight descriptor
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 13, 2009
I kinda want to know more, but at the same time, I'm not a 12 year old girl like the other resident Lopez fan.
It’s quite the conundrum.
joof - July 13, 2009
Thanks for reminding me I need to get back to my reading of Midnight Sun
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 13, 2009
Nolabaiting sounds like a real word.
Poochie - July 13, 2009
I think it is.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 13, 2009
Nope
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=nolabaiting
Poochie - July 13, 2009
Jose or sb?
Both would be entertaining.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 13, 2009
Ms. Jeff threatened to ban me once =(
seattlebruin - July 13, 2009
Telling SB he's banned is not a good idea, SB is fucking awesome.
kevin_ess - July 13, 2009
Why thank you!
seattlebruin - July 13, 2009
Difference between Lopez and Betancourt
is work ethics.
brian_sun - July 13, 2009
Lopez is clutch!
JamMasterJesus - July 13, 2009
Look, I don't want to talk bad about a player who's been through some very
unfortunate personal trageties in the last couple years, but I can’t wait to see him in a different uniform. His game hasn’t really improved much in the last several years, while his defense has regressed. Maybe not as bad as Betancourt, but he’s part of the problem, not part of the solution
brian_sun - July 13, 2009
I can't wait to see you on Geoff Baker's forum instead of here either
but you don’t see me going around saying it do you?
seattlebruin - July 13, 2009
You are demonstrably incorrect.
Jose Lopez projects to be about a league average, to slightly above, player. And he makes very little money.
Matthew - July 13, 2009
Sorry, I had too much caffeine. I really meant a player whose AB
will result in 3 outcomes: walks, K or HR
brian_sun - July 13, 2009
But that's not what he is.
He has a lot of speed, hits a lot of doubles, etc. He doesn’t even strike out that much. Adam Dunn is a 3 true outcomes player. Shin Soo Choo is just a good player, who happens to have some numbers in those categories.
CapSea - July 13, 2009
And not even a lot of them, since 13 home runs isn't anything spectacular, it's just good.
CapSea - July 13, 2009
Yeah, and Choo's numbers are inflated a bit by that park in Cleveland or whatever they are doing to rack up the numbers
Anyway, while the Choo, Rafael Soriano moves seem not so smart, giving away Asdrubal Cabrera was Bavasi’s real bonehead. Not to mention Adam Jones and Sherril! Wait a minute, the list goes on and on….
Sam Regens - July 13, 2009
the Choo trade would have been okay if we were playing Broussard, which we weren't.
The Soriano trade was awful, not just “not so smart.” I think it is fair to lump that in with Cabrera, Bedard, etc.
CapSea - July 13, 2009
Both the Choo and Cabrera trades were defensible at the time
since Choo looked like a bust and we got a badly needed pinch hitter for Cabrera when we were in a playoff race.
It’s just bad luck that they’ve both turned into very good players (though we seemed to think Cabrera was going to be good all along)
seattlebruin - July 13, 2009
No, they really werent.
Having an area of need doesn’t mean ANYTHING’s defensible as long as you’re trying to fix it.
Trading Saunders/Pineda/Ramirez for Jason Kendall would not be defensible, even if our catchers suck. Trading Carp for Hannahan would’ve been bad, whereas Souza for Hannahan is fine.
marc w - July 13, 2009
I was always under the impression they weren't that high on Choo or Cabrera
which is why I thought they were defensible at the time.
seattlebruin - July 13, 2009
Who's 'they'?
Bavasi? Yeah, sure, fair point. Bavasi thought Asdrubal Cabrera and Oswaldo Navarro were equivalent talents, which is why I don’t think Bavasi gets a say in how defensible the trade was.
marc w - July 13, 2009
Touche
but at that point of my baseball fandom, “they,” e.g. Bavasi, et. al made up for most of my opinions on our prospects
seattlebruin - July 13, 2009
I feel sorry for kids who grow up without a place like LL to tell them right from wrong,
I was one of those kids. I still like Joel Peniero for some reason :(
JamMasterJesus - July 13, 2009
NO HITTER!!
Kirk - July 13, 2009
I'm right there with you on that one.
Hopefulmsfan - July 13, 2009
Cabrera wasn't playing in an area of need.
Hindsight’s 20/20, but at the time Lopez and Yuni were thought of as the future of the M’s. There was nowhere for Cabrera to play.
Choo didn’t look like he was going to be anything good, and upgrading from Crazy Carl to Broussard/Perez was worth it for two guys that were either blocked or not likely to pan out.
Obviously it didn’t work like that but the trades were very defensible in my opinion
dbroncos31 - July 13, 2009
Again, we have an area of need, and an area of 'surplus' or whatever now.
Is ANY catcher worth, oh, Mike Carp?
We have a number of intriguing arms in high A. Can we trade one for Yamid Haad?
There’s perhaps nothing wrong with the idea of the trade, but talent matters.
(The Broussard trade was much, much better in my mind, and it’s possible that I’m still pissed off that the trades were seen as defensible SOLELY BECAUSE Bavasi fucked up the DH slot in the first place with the Everett pick-up).
marc w - July 13, 2009
Yeah.
It sucks that they basically were traded because Bavasi was dumb enough to think Everett was a good solution, but at the time I thought the trades were okay. We were sacrificing the future to win now a little bit, but Cabrera seemed expendable due to Yuni and Lopez’s awesomeness.
While at the time the reasoning was okay, it was just more of Bavasi’s love for trading young talent for VETERANS! when you look at it along with his other moves.
dbroncos31 - July 13, 2009
I still think Choo was fine.
Aaron Campeau - July 13, 2009
Yeah, in the case of this trade, I felt as though hindisght was okay analysis.
It did look good at the time, but it looked good when the assumption was that he was going to play – that he would DH, or maybe take the place of Sexson. When it turned out he was an unused bench player even while our DH and 1B struggled, that was where it turned into a bad trade.
Kind of like trading Michael Saunders for Hanley Ramirez, and then using Hanley as a backup catcher during weekend games. It’s not always good to judge a trade by its results, but the way they used Broussard makes the trade make considerably less sense.
CapSea - July 13, 2009
As with Perez though, I think Broussard seemed like he was something he wasn't
based on the fact that he’d had a kick-ass April/May.
We certainly never used him all that well, but he basically hit what you might reasonably expect – around a .320/.325 wOBA. I’m not saying Choo could’ve done better in 2006 (though he might’ve), just that it if you’re looking for a platoon DH who, if things break right, is maybe slightly better than league average with the bat, you’ve got options. Choose one that doesn’t require you giving up actual talent.
Again, I didn’t think it was THAT bad, just because Choo was very clearly never going to be a contributor here (thanks again, Bavasi/Hargrove!), but still. This is like trading Saunders or Carp for a 30-year old platoon DH who might conceivably wOBA .335.
marc w - July 13, 2009
So I think we agree it was a bad trade.
But for different reasons. However, the general consensus at the time, even on LL, was that it was pretty sweet. But as I stated it was sweet because we were expected to use him, something they never even bothered to do, regardless of how he ended up performing.
CapSea - July 13, 2009
You're right! I had a total brainfade and thought we gave away Choo for free.
Completely forgot it was for Broussard. Just Broussard’s finger pointing to the dugout was worth more than what Choo gave us.
Yeah Choo got some nice numbers with the Indians, buit who doesn’t?
Sam Regens - July 13, 2009
should be
Yeah Choo’s got some nice numbers with the Indians, but who doesn’t?
Sam Regens - July 13, 2009
Hmmm. My view at the time...
The sum of the parts (Choo+Drubes—>Broussard+Perez) was more “meh” then “GRR” to me, but I hated giving up Drubes. He was an excellent defender with a great batting eye in the middle infield. Choo was extraneous, but not completely value-less. I thought they might’ve been able to get some more value out of those two (hence my “meh” grade) but Bavasi should have just never dropped Roberto Petagine in the first place (and Hargrove should’ve given him much, much more playing time).
PositivePaul - July 13, 2009
Yes.
No.
Teej - July 13, 2009
Watching Tillman pitch in the Futures Game made me want to put razor to my wrists.
But in all seriousness, do we even have a SP for the future in our system? Aumont has such great stuff that I think he could be one of the best prospects in baseball. Can we still make him a SP or are they completely sure that he belongs in the BP?
russak - July 13, 2009
Pineda and Ramirez are both decent SP prospects.
Aaron Campeau - July 13, 2009
Pribanic and Lorin as well, and maybe Adcock plus Cortes
which brings up an interesting question for someone like marc or JY – do we actually have good starting pitching prospects in A-ball or do we just focus on those guys because our upper minors are so utterly devoid of starting pitching talent?
seattlebruin - July 13, 2009
We've got a number of pretty high upside gus playing high A ball
I don’t remember if any have snuck up to AA yet.
Bearskin Rugburn - July 13, 2009
The only good thing about Tillman's success
Is that we’re all in it together!
OceanBird - July 13, 2009
re: "But given that Kenji's a better hitter"
FUN FACT!
ZiPS ROS wOBA projection for Johjima: .286
ZiPS ROS wOBA projection for Johnson: .289
2009 LD%,BABIP, Johjima: 10.3%, .255
2009 LD%,BABIP, Johnson: 22.1%, .272
marc w - July 13, 2009
Dear oh dear
abender20 - July 13, 2009
I am aware of Johnson's ZiPS projection, but I don't buy it yet
Jeff Sullivan - July 13, 2009
I think that's totally fair.
I just wonder if Kenji isn’t just as broken as a hitter at this point. I mean, I believe his projection, esp. considering his 2008 and his LD rate. I also have to say I don’t really remember Johnson hitting 22% line drives; categorizing balls in play still seems fishy to me.
Johjima’s defensive surge this year is sort of amazing (CS% over 50%), so the one area where the M’s seemed to think Johnson had the edge is pretty demonstrably not true.
marc w - July 13, 2009
I wouldn't be surprised if Kenji were only a .650 OPS bat these days
I just…it’s hard to see Johnson pulling that off. But more power to him if he can.
Jeff Sullivan - July 13, 2009
Rob Johnson is running .221 LD rate?!
are they counting ground balls as line drives now? =(
seattlebruin - July 13, 2009
I know. I'd love to see if BIS/STATS have the same/similar LD rates.
marc w - July 13, 2009
Baseball-Reference's source gives him an LD% of 18%
I wonder what StatCorner is now blocked at work.
Jeff Sullivan - July 13, 2009
What the hell did they do?
This is what I get when I go to StatCorner
seattlebruin - July 13, 2009
Bingo
Jeff Sullivan - July 13, 2009
Maybe Dayton Moore works for Websense now
seattlebruin - July 13, 2009
I get the same, and our web filter is hard to argue with.
I guess this is what happens when you get too snarky.
Bearskin Rugburn - July 13, 2009
They don't even do anything!
Jeff Sullivan - July 13, 2009
Matthew types something into his crazy computer-contraption at least once a week
Graham MacAree - July 13, 2009
Sounds like someone reported it as an attack site falsely
OlSalty - July 13, 2009
No, there was a word press security leak that allowed someone to post some stupid ad in the header.
I’ve since erased it and, since we weren’t using it anyways, fully nuked the StatCorner blog. WordPress can pleasure me sexually.
Matthew - July 13, 2009
In a good way or a bad way?
Robert - July 13, 2009
How is there a bad way?
seattlebruin - July 13, 2009
Life finds a way with Matthew
Robert - July 13, 2009
Teeth.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 13, 2009
Speak for yourself.
JamMasterJesus - July 13, 2009
Statcorner's got him at 16.3%.
So, three different answers. Awesome.
(Statcorner has Johjima at 12.7%, so there are definitely some differences in categorization. Wonder if fangraphs is including fliners in the ld% and the others aren’t. That wouldn’t explain Kenji, though).
marc w - July 13, 2009
Looks like it, as Johnson's single that Jeff called a 'bloop' was classed as a LD on fangraphs
At least that’s how I interpret the ‘Fliner (liner)’ categorization.
marc w - July 13, 2009
That hit was the very definition fliner
how are you seeing what hits were classified as what on FanGraphs?
seattlebruin - July 13, 2009
Why on earth have my comments been missing words lately?
seattlebruin - July 13, 2009
It passed from Robert to A-minus to you.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 13, 2009
Transmission is swift and unexpected
abender20 - July 13, 2009
Pretty sure Robert got it from me
Poochie - July 13, 2009
So you're Patient Zero?
abender20 - July 13, 2009
Typhoid Mary?
Kermit. - July 13, 2009
As long as it doesn't spread to Madagascar, the Human race will survive.
joof - July 13, 2009
The one time I get Madagascar? Didn't get Poland, how in the hell do you miss Poland?!?
Kermit. - July 13, 2009
I got Madagascar and missed Peru. =(
joof - July 13, 2009
Go to the gamelog, click the game, then go to the play log for that game.
marc w - July 13, 2009
You can look in the player's play log
Jeff Sullivan - July 13, 2009
Though that's organized sort of weird. I'm sure there's a handy chrono sort, but I just go to the game log first.
marc w - July 13, 2009
It's back up.
I’m having issues with some russian spammer interjecting code into the index page.
Matthew - July 13, 2009
Still not working for me
Jeff Sullivan - July 13, 2009
Clear cache?
Matthew - July 13, 2009
No dice
Jeff Sullivan - July 13, 2009
Well, it is fine now from my end.
Probably a cache in the security software on your end.
Matthew - July 13, 2009
He has been hitting some fairly non-threatening liners lately.
He hit two almost identical liners yesterday, for example. Kinsler caught one and just barely missed the other.
abender20 - July 13, 2009
And of course the home run
abender20 - July 13, 2009
Sorry off-topic but guess who is the Nats' new manager?
Jim Riggleman.
kentcheesehead - July 13, 2009
I liked him.
One of the few guys to call everyone’s bullshit towards Ichiro
dbroncos31 - July 13, 2009
Yeah, we've certainly had worse.
kentcheesehead - July 13, 2009
Baseball related banter is almost always on-topic/OK
also, I hope Jim Riggleman learned his lesson and doesn’t sweep the season-ending series to lose Harper this time around
seattlebruin - July 13, 2009
Nice...I didn't even think about that.
kentcheesehead - July 13, 2009
Actually I would prefer that front-page threads stay on topic
This is the sort of thing that would deserve a fanpost of its own. Or just a discussion in the fanshot that’s already open.
Jeff Sullivan - July 13, 2009
Alright.
kentcheesehead - July 13, 2009
It was all part of his evil plan.
He pushed the Mariners to win that last series, so the Nationals could have Strasburg. And then he would become manager.
M'sin.. - July 13, 2009
Matthew or Graham -
what’s the league average BABIP and slash lines for GB/FB/LD?
Is the best way to find them over a season just to use BB-R?
seattlebruin - July 13, 2009
Hey, I'm neither, but I'll answer this anyway.
Fangraphs has an option to show averages for stats. Choose a player, go to the Advanced section, then click Show Averages.
Average BABIP=.300
Average Slugging =.416
Average OPS = .748
abender20 - July 13, 2009
I'm also illiterate. To my knowledge, however, Fangraphs doesn't have slash lines broken out for the various batted ball profiles.
abender20 - July 13, 2009
I don't understand why you linked to Griffey instead of Lopez
seattlebruin - July 13, 2009
Mult-tasking and reading is a dangerous combination. Holy eff.
abender20 - July 13, 2009
Roughly
43%/28%/19%
Not listed:
IF: 7%
Bunts: 2%
Matthew - July 13, 2009
Yes
Jeff Sullivan - July 13, 2009
Fangraphs showed Jarrod Washburn has been extremely valuable in the 1st half.
His WAR so far this year is 2.1, which places him the 5th most valuable Mariners this year, after Felix, Ichiro, FG, and Russell Branyan. His value in terms of $ so far is $9.5M, and he’s projected 17.5M this year. His value since he signed the 4 year 37.2M deal to date is 29.7M. If he can get to his projection of 17.5M this year, Jarrod Washburn’s value over the 4 year he was with the M’s would be: $37.8M, about exactly what he’s making over the life of his contract.
No, Washburn isn’t the worst signing. Jarrod Washburn has been a valuable signing up to this point. At the beginning of the signing, it might not be very bright, but Jarrod Washburn has performed just about what his contract said he would perform, and that’s averaging about +2 wins per year in terms of WAR. That’s not bad at all.
brian_sun - July 13, 2009
Giving that kind of money over that many years to a mediocre starting pitcher in his mid 30s is retarded.
Just because it hasn’t turned out as terribly as it could have doesn’t mean it wasn’t a terrible idea.
The Washburn signing was stupid, he’s probably not going to end the year as a four win player, and I don’t even know what point it is you are trying to make.
Aaron Campeau - July 13, 2009
Also, this was said
in this thread, too.
abender20 - July 13, 2009
What is it good for?
waldo rojas - July 13, 2009
boy that joke never gets old
pdb - July 13, 2009
Remember that time it got old?
Matthew - July 13, 2009
3.14 pm today if I read my date stamps correctly
pdb - July 13, 2009
Mine says 3:14
Sec 108 - July 13, 2009
I apparently read my date stamp the way I want it rather than the way it is
My reality is far more interesting. And less colon-d.
pdb - July 13, 2009
Your reality does sound more interesting.
Sec 108 - July 13, 2009
If using a period instead of a colon to demarcate time means my life is more interesting than yours
I’m not sure what that says about either of our lives.
pdb - July 13, 2009
Well mine became considerably more boring with the trade of Yuni.
Sec 108 - July 13, 2009
And per Statcorner he's worth 1.1 wins less
Graham MacAree - July 13, 2009
Fangraphs doesn't use tRA
we do.
seattlebruin - July 13, 2009
What does this have to do with anything in this post?
Matthew - July 13, 2009
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