348 runs scored, 366 runs allowed. That is what some people are going to focus on as we hit the All-Star Break and more trade rumors heat up. A negative run differential and yet we are four games over .500. We must be getting lucky and just like 2007, this facade of competitiveness will come crashing down and we will rue the day if we do not take the chance now to trade for the future. Move Washburn, move Bedard, move Aardsma, move Branyan. Time to forget about 2009 and focus on 2010. Zduriencik has built a nice start, now lets give him the trade chits to add some more.
Right?
Wrong.
I talked about it 16 or so months ago and we have mentioned it several times since then. Straight pythag record is fine for a quick estimate, but we have much more advanced methods of evaluation available to us and ignoring them would be silly.
I am not going to re-hash the whole discussion, read my linked post above to get the full details. The only addition to that piece that I would add in is a correction on the strength of schedule faced by the team. Suffice to say, here is the breakdown:
Average winning percentage of Mariner opponents to date: .517
BaseRuns Scored: 367
BaseRuns Allowed: 363
Expected BsR Record: 46-42*
Even subbing in tRA for the runs allowed estimator and applying park and defense measurements leaves the team right about at their 46-42 record. The Mariners have played the third hardest schedule in baseball to date based on opponents winning percentage. The Mariners have earned their first half record.
* The formula (ignore last two lines and sub in 88 for 162 in third most bottom line): 
0 recs | 62 comments
Has anyone put together a strength of schedule number based on Expected BsR record instead of actual record?
abender20 - July 13, 2009
Not to my knowledge,
but doing so for the Ms yields a .502 SOS and would knock them from 46-42 expected record all the way down to 45-43.
Matthew - July 13, 2009
I suppose BsR wouldn't fully account for the weak AL West anyway.
You’d have to come up with expected Win/Loss based on RAA or something of that nature.
abender20 - July 13, 2009
Why would you suppose that?
Matthew - July 13, 2009
Correct me if I misunderstood your BaseRuns explanantion, but
Runs scored from the Baseruns equation uses linear weights as applied to outcomes and doesn’t take into account park factors or the talent of the opposing teams. I would assume that facing the run prevention units of Texas, Oakland, and to some extent Anaheim would aid Seattle’s offensive production. While the run prevention half of BaseRuns accounts for park factors, uses tRA, and looks at defense, the run scoring half lacks the same level of depth.
abender20 - July 13, 2009
Oakland has good run prevention
and for the most part, that stuff all evens out and it’s no different from how any RAA measurement would work.
Matthew - July 13, 2009
Out of curiosity
the opponents’ win % – it’s based on current numbers or win % at the time they played us?
How did we, playing in our shitty division and getting the NLW for interleague, end up with anywhere near the hardest schedule to date? Boggles the mind. What kind of range does opponents’ win % have? .520-.480 or so? This is fascinating stuff.
Also, I think it is important when talking about base runs pythag to make the distinction about what has happened and what will happen in the future. To date, the team has been outscored by 16 (real) runs so clearly it has been somewhat lucky to have a winning record. However, it has hit well enough that it should have been outscoring opponents so going forward we can expect them to keep winning.
Bearskin Rugburn - July 13, 2009
For one thing, playing the NL West was actually the best thing for the M's SOS.
The NL West is currently the best NL division by a wide Margin in terms of aggregate winning percentage. Secondly, the M’s play in the second toughest division in baseball at the moment, behind only the AL East.
TheOptimist - July 13, 2009
That last bit cannot possibly be true
our division is full of thoroughly mediocre teams. On talent, there is not one team that cracks the MLB top ten. My guess is that three quarters of the division are in the 15-30 range.
Bearskin Rugburn - July 13, 2009
True talent is one thing
But if you’re purely measuring SoS on team record, it’s true:
AL East .535 (237-206)
AL West .519 (180-167)
NL West .512 (226-215)
NL Central .494 (261-267)
AL Central .476 (210-231)
NL East .468 (205-233)
calim - July 13, 2009
I guess we have the benefit of having a small division
so we usually only have one goat rather than two or the occasional three you see in the central divisions.
Bearskin Rugburn - July 13, 2009
Not according to ESPN!
Wilder. - July 13, 2009
Rational Angel's fans shouldn't exist
It would make blanket propaganda much easier
Trenchtown - July 13, 2009
I'm pretty sure we've also won about 20 one run games
which would contribute to our lower run differential but better win-loss record
twags - July 13, 2009
I couldn't agree more!
This is the first place I’ve seen somebody mention this. Where we’ve had a couple blow-out losses that pad the RA. Where we’ve either won the game at home by the middle of the 9th or won in a walk-off, so we’ve only had 8 or 8.1 innings instead of a full 9.
LauraBu - July 13, 2009
Of course winning or losing one run games is something of a crapshoot and winning them at the rate the Mariners have this season makes up for the skewing of the RA.
Aaron Campeau - July 13, 2009
Right.
The Ancient Mariner - July 13, 2009
Blowouts tend to be more indicative of team strength than one-run games
(which tend to be variable from year to year) so that doesn’t actually serve the argument you want to make.
The Ancient Mariner - July 13, 2009
Does the Ms schedule get easier in the second half?
Or is it just more of the same.
ARock - July 13, 2009
No Politics.
Fin - July 13, 2009
Huh?
That’s an odd reaction.
The Ancient Mariner - July 13, 2009
It was a joke.
I hate that there is no way to detect sarcasm on the internet.
Fin - July 13, 2009
That doesn't even make sense as a sarcastic comment.
Matthew - July 13, 2009
"More of the same" is a popular political slogan from both stripes.
Faux - July 13, 2009
Well that's a tremendous tremendous reach
Matthew - July 13, 2009
I got it.
I thought it was funny.
Llewdor - July 14, 2009
Even so, why should politics be capitalized?
evanr - July 13, 2009
It's a slogan.
Teej - July 13, 2009
I laughed.
andrewgolfsalot - July 13, 2009 via mobile
What would the 2008 Angels BsR Record be?
Now I would be curious about that.
Fin - July 13, 2009
Does this mean...
PLAYOFFS!?!?!?!?
I Lick Squirrels - July 13, 2009
Maybe!
Jaejo - July 13, 2009
What's your opinion of the Beyond the Boxscore expected wins and expected standings, Matthew? Are they something that would make calculating the strength of schedule number easier?
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/8/942574/btb-power-rankings-through-tuesday
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/10/945355/btb-poor-mans-projected-season
Decatur - July 13, 2009
I think they are worse than what I outlined above.
BaseRuns > wOBA on a team level.
Matthew - July 13, 2009
Better for estimating runs scored, yes.
Not better for estimating total hitting talent on a team. That one has a more niche use, and might be worse than BaseRuns for Justin’s definition of power rankings, actually.
Sky Kalkman - July 13, 2009
Somewhat interestingly, BP's third order wins agree with you.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php
According to them, the M’s have had little to no luck at all, one way or the other.
TheOptimist - July 13, 2009
I love that there are four teams in the majors way ahead of everyone in run prevention
and we’re one of them!
seattlebruin - July 13, 2009
It's hilarious that not only are the Nationals terrible
They’re incredibly unlucky too.
Terminator X - July 13, 2009
Bad teams tend to be unlucky
And good teams tend to be lucky. It is indicative of being the best and worst in the league
Trenchtown - July 13, 2009
They are really underperforming this year
vivaelpujols - July 14, 2009
Bad chemistry.
Hopefulmsfan - July 14, 2009
It's all Jordan Zimmerman's fault
vivaelpujols - July 14, 2009
Look at the Rays...
Huh, I didn’t know they’d been so unlucky this year. BP 3rd order wins say they should have the best record in the Majors, but they’re currently 3 back in the Wild Card race.
urchman - July 13, 2009
What a homer article
Trenchtown - July 13, 2009
Yeah, the Mariners bias on this blog is frightening.
Come on.
Jack Moore - July 13, 2009
Internet sarcasm ftw
Trenchtown - July 13, 2009
Yeah, I know.
The come on was to the authors.
Jack Moore - July 13, 2009
That's right
All I ask from the authors at this site is that they completely objectively explain to me that the Mariners are going to win the World Series this year.
Snuffleupagus - July 13, 2009
What are trade chits?
Slurvey - July 13, 2009
Whatever this is supposed to mean, it's stupid.
evanr - July 13, 2009
It's a fairly common phrase.
Aaron Campeau - July 13, 2009
Where did you get the winning percentage of Mariner opponents?
The SoS adjustment used by RPI and some other rankings is 1/4Win% + 1/4OppWin% + 1/4OppOppWin%. I think the first part is in there because good teams will make other teams look worse.
Another option is to do SoS recursively, calculating these win% for all 30 teams, then calculate strength of schedule based on those numbers. Rinse repeat until something stabilizes somehow.
Sky Kalkman - July 13, 2009
Means 1/2 Win% + 1/4 OppWin% + 1/4 OppOppWin%
calim - July 13, 2009
Well I'm a bit confused now.
The formula is 1/2OppWin%, not 1/2Win%, but it appears that’s the entire RPI ranking formula, not just the strength of schedule piece.
http://www.collegerpi.com/rpifaq.html#Formula
Sky Kalkman - July 14, 2009
That's what RPI is
1/4 wins
1/2 opponent’s wins
1/4 opponent’s opponent’s wins
The RPI used by the NCAA basketball selection committee (the famous one that people talk about) includes an adjustment for road and home games. (It’s actually an innumerate adjustment which contains a fundamental math error, but that’s neither here nor there…) But that’s it.
PaulThomas - July 14, 2009
USSM is in chaos mode. People are proposing ridiculous trades and are just being unreasonable.
I’m not sure if people from Geoff’s blog have invaded but it’s seriously bad down there.
russak - July 13, 2009
There was a huge argument at Baker's blog about the JJ Hardy trade, with one or two people defending Dave and the rest attacking them
gregrabble - July 13, 2009
Somebody tried to say Washburn has been the most consistent pitcher on this team.
Felix says hello.
Hopefulmsfan - July 14, 2009
Morrow has been preeeety consistent...
JamMasterJesus - July 14, 2009
When people describe players as the "most consistent"
Anything else they say is of little value.
Craig Powers - July 14, 2009 via mobile
He has been very consistent.
He has been worth roughly 2 WAR every year since what 2002?
Washburn is consistent and AVERAGE!
mark sobba - July 14, 2009
I don't know if t his site will be able to handle four mods
Poochie - July 14, 2009
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