| 2008 | 2009 | |
| uBB% + HBP% | 3.4 | 3.9 |
| K% | 9.8 | 10.7 |
| HR/BIA% | 5.2 | 6.9 |
| Contact% | 88.0 | 87.2 |
| Line Drive% | 22.5 | 21.4 |
| BABIP | .304 | .249 |
| ISO_Disc | .025 | .031 |
| ISO_Slg | .146 | .172 |
The BABIP should regress up toward Lopez's 2008 mark and if it does, you are looking at a player who has improved or at least maintained in every meaningful category from a season in which he was a better than league average hitter at 2B. Just get those errors under control, Jose.
1 recs | 153 comments
Thank you
He’s improved his UZR as the season has gone on to keep it close to 0. Can we stop blaming him for the team’s problems please? Just get a new SS and the M’s are good. A new 2B is not the top of the list when it comes to the team’s problems.
CMC_Stags - July 14, 2009
Who has been blaming Lopez?
I think people are frustrated with him batting third, but he hasn’t been close to the top of our problems. Shortstop, catcher, Beltre’s replacement, DH, and pitching (specifically the bullpen and Morrow) have taken the most scrutinty this season.
Things may be said during games, but that can be thanks to GTE.
Wilder. - July 14, 2009 via mobile
Lots of people believe Jose Lopez is a problem on this team.
Matthew - July 14, 2009
There was a time earlier this season that I thought that because he looked like bad Jose and 2008 looked like a massive outlier.
Aaron Campeau - July 14, 2009
I still wish he wasn't a gigantic waste of talent.
abender20 - July 14, 2009
And I still hate you
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
Why did I not get that you were a huge Lopez fan until now?
There are two of us!
Kirk - July 14, 2009
Three.
Joof.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 14, 2009
Hmm.
Yay!
Kirk - July 14, 2009
And Last Fan of Yuniesky Betancourt
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
Yuni has been bad since his rookie year
Jose on the other hand had a great 2007 going until his brother died and then had a very good 2008. If his BABIP in the 2nd half regresses to his career norm (correct usage!), then he’ll be an asset for the stretch run.
Also, you never hear about him not working hard like you heard about Yuni.
CMC_Stags - July 14, 2009
I don't think we're trying to compare Jose and Yuni, just saying that Yuni had some fans.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 14, 2009
Yuni had fans?
Kirk - July 14, 2009
Robert wants a Yuni shirt.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 14, 2009
It's an ironic joke about Last Fan of Jose Lopez
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
Yes and mine was an ironic joke about Yuni having fans.
The internet sucks.
Kirk - July 14, 2009
Four. Me.
royalcurve - July 14, 2009
Bandwagoner
Kermit. - July 14, 2009
Yeah, but better her on the bandwagon than just about anyone else
seattlebruin - July 15, 2009
I used to be a Jose Lopez fan. Can I come back to the bandwagon?
JamMasterJesus - July 15, 2009
We'll make a decision after the next few gamethreads
seattlebruin - July 15, 2009
Gah! Does this mean I can't make fun of him anymore?
JamMasterJesus - July 15, 2009
I'm suddenly envisioning the Jose Lopez bandwagon as more of a hayride
Kermit. - July 15, 2009
I'm envisioning it more like this:
CapSea - July 15, 2009
I think I make fun of him more than 90% of LL
seattlebruin - July 15, 2009
Also, when can I graduate from bandwagoner back to genuine fan?
JamMasterJesus - July 15, 2009
Erm.
The 3 of us took alot of flack over the last couple years here. But our love never wavered.
Slica - July 15, 2009
Not saying an upgrade isn't possible
Sanchez would be and upgrade and there will be some on the market this off-season, but he’s cheaper than those alternatives and is probably a 1.5 – 2.5 WAR player.
CMC_Stags - July 14, 2009
ARGH
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
frown
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
But I love Loafie
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
Why the ARGH and frown?
Matthew - July 14, 2009
I spent three hours thinking about and writing this up yesterday
the first snippet of which was my Facebook status last night
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
Oh.
I wrote this about five days ago and then he committed two errors and I figured I should push off publishing it.
Matthew - July 14, 2009
damn you
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
With regards to HR/BIA
Loafie has shown improvement in this category every year since coming into the majors, and this year is running 9.8 HR/FB (mainly looking at flyballs because his liners tend to be more of the frozen rope to left variety).
Is it common for players to increase their HR/FB as they physically mature? Shoudl we expect this to peak somewhere and then decline after he reaches his physical peak?
It’s probably also worth noting that his homers this hear have been hit much harder than in years past – 102.8 average speed off bat vs 99.9 career previously.
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
Speed off the bat is available for seasons prior to 2009?
BrianL - July 14, 2009
Home runs only
thanks HitTracker!
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
it's pretty remarkable for him to run a ~average HR/BIA in Safeco given he only hits to left field
Bearskin Rugburn - July 14, 2009
What's weird is that he hit 13 homers at Safeco last year and only three this year
it’s not as if Safeco changed in the offseason, and he’s hitting ~the same as a whole this year.
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
I also have the feeling that his Iso_D is up because he's bunting a lot less
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
Not because he's walking more.
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
Even though he is walking a bit more
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
It's almost predictable that I would post 7 of the first nine comments in this thread
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
I can't look at the SC numbers cause they're so full of malice
but there are some differences between 08 and 09 Jose Lopez according to FG.
Since coming up from Tacoma Lopez has never hit more balls in the air than on the ground. Until this year. Usually, this would probably be a good thing for a slow guy like him, but as a pull hitting righty in Safeco it’s BAbip poison.
Well, maybe that’s overstating the effect, but you see where I’m going with this. He’s got a .288 career BAbip as a 1.2GB/FB hitter. Now he’s at 0.9, and when you factor that into his .257 BAbip it becomes more difficult to write it off as poor luck.
Bearskin Rugburn - July 14, 2009
His bunting is down, which lowers his GB%
and his infield pop rate is way down.
Matthew - July 14, 2009
If I am interpreting the FG data correctly (I do not usually look at the batted ball data so closely)
He had seven bunts last year and has three this year (zero for hits both years), and the IFFB% is pretty much the same (10.1 and 9.8). Am I looking at the wrong stats or are you quoting SC numbers?
Bearskin Rugburn - July 14, 2009
You quoted career numbers.
Do not mix and match career vs 2009 and 2008 vs 2009. That’s bad.
Matthew - July 14, 2009
The only career number I quoted is BABIP
I also brought up that he’s a career 1.2 GB/FB hitter, but last year he was at 1.24 so there’s no reason to differentiate. So, again, is it not possible that the difference in BABIP is due to a difference in Lopez’ swing, which is causing him to put more balls in the air? It would explain both the better ISO and (at least some of) the lower average.
Bearskin Rugburn - July 14, 2009
Some splits
GB: .242 career BABIP, .148 in 2009
FB: .100, .126
LD: .701, .661
I know Lopez is slower than he used to be, but the league average BABIP on grounders is .235.
Jeff Sullivan - July 14, 2009
God dammit
Jeff Sullivan - July 14, 2009
This was a god damn waste
Jeff Sullivan - July 14, 2009
YES
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
Good job
Jeff Sullivan - July 14, 2009
Brevity rocks
Jeff Sullivan - July 14, 2009
frown
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
I expanded on the idea
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
OK
If I take these BABIP numbers and plug them into his batted ball profile in FG (38.7GB, 43.3FB 18.1LD) then you get 232 hits per 1000 balls in play with his 09 BABIP against 264 hits per thousand using career BABIP. It is considerable.
Bearskin Rugburn - July 14, 2009
Yes.
Matthew - July 14, 2009
Playoffs!!!
Snuffleupagus - July 14, 2009
OK, some more numbers to help out this cause
From 2004-2008, Loafie ran the following slash lines (fourth number is BABIP)
Grounders – .242/.277/.263/.242
Fly Balls – .162/.158/.416/.102
Line Drives – .707/.708/.972/.703
For comparison, his 2009 numbers
Grounders – .148/.148/.148/.148
Fly Balls – .213/.204/.537/.126
Line Drives – .672/.672/.895/.669
Essentially what we’re looking at here is that Loafie has been extremely unlucky on ground balls. He’s been a bit lucky compared to career averages on fly balls and a bit unlucky on line drives, but neither of those are particularly alarming, since they’re close enough that a mini-hot or cold streak should put him right around his career marks.
However, the ground balls seems to be the brunt of his bad luck. Loafie has hit 108 ground balls this season, and a .148 BABIP gives him 16 ground ball base hits. If we pull that back to his career average of .242, he gets ten additional ground ball base hits. Also, thanks to the wonders of BB-R, we can see that for his career, he averages 1.1 total bases per ground ball hit, so in this scenario, I’m crediting him with nine singles and one double for ten extra hits and eleven extra total bases.
If we apply a similar scheme to his fly ball and line drive rates, we get 59 singles, 19 doubles and 12 homers in 313 at bats, good for a slash line of .288/.326/.463, for an OPS of .789.
I know this method is extremely simplistic, but it’s just looking at a very broad view of how much production Lopez has lost due to luck this year. Also, this assumes that his power improvement is real, as he’s posting a 9.8 HR/FB v. career average of 7.0 HR/FB. However, it’s worth noting that a) he’s entering his physical prime and b) he’s hitting the ball a lot harder this year, as noted above, his homers have gone from 99.9 avg speed off bat to 102.8.
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
You're also assuming that he is the same player he has been over his career
but his batted ball profile has changed pretty dramatically, which suggests that he is putting a different swing on the ball. Maybe it’s a sample size thing… who knows. but his GB slash line is miserable. That’s Griffey territory.
Bearskin Rugburn - July 14, 2009
He's hitting more fly balls than ever before, but that has nothing to do with per-batted-ball type BABIP
also, Griffey has a .110 GB BABIP. Yeah.
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
By the way, the AVG/OBP difference on balls in play is because of reaching on error and home runs?
Must be since GB OBP > AVG and FB OBP < AVG.
Bearskin Rugburn - July 14, 2009
I'd assume so, it makes sense for grounders
for fly balls, I’m fairly certain it’s for sac flies – don’t count against BA, but count against OBP
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
Right right
since HR are not in play. Thanks for the clarification.
Bearskin Rugburn - July 14, 2009
is he slower?
I’m assuming the grounder numbers would go down if he lost a bit of speed. I have no reason to think that he has, but is there a measure out there to show that he hasn’t? Does someone time contact with ball to first-base times of players?
Snuffleupagus - July 14, 2009
Well his speed score this year has been abysmal, and he's already grounded into 15 DPs (no that's not a typo...)
however, his range has been ~average to slightly above for a 2B, so he can’t be a total slug out there. I really don’t know what to think in this case. It’s probably also worth nothing that he’s running 5.5% IF hits this year, down from a 9.7% career average. He may just be hitting harder grounders, though.
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
Those speed scores are nearly worthless.
I’m amazed Fangraphs endorses them, the methodology is a bunch of hoo-ey.
Terminator X - July 14, 2009
I'm curious how much better is a player like Robinson Cano than Jose Lopez?
I’m wondering if Lopez would be considered a strength if the players around him in the lineup were better or the players on defense weren’t so good. Ya know? As to disguise his weaknesses.
Kenny Knows Sports - July 14, 2009
I'm curious as to how much better a replacement level commenter would be in comparison to Kenny Knows Sports
I’m wondering if he would be considered a strength on Geoff Baker’s blog or the ESPN.com boards because the commenters around him would be so much worse. You know, in order to disguise his weaknesses.
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
Thanks.
Kenny Knows Sports - July 14, 2009
Not necessary.
marc w - July 14, 2009
Gotta call BS on SB here
Kenny has endured a large pile of crap in his first couple weeks here and he’s learning. And showing a willingness to learn.
pdb - July 14, 2009
SB was just protecting his fat Mexican territory
Jeff Sullivan - July 14, 2009
The only times I've I've ever seen SB be mean are when he's defending Loafie. When he's doing that, though, he's like a momma bear defending her cub.
Decatur - July 14, 2009
And he will eat your face, don't you even think twice.
abender20 - July 14, 2009
SB is Japanese you racist asshole.
Robert - July 14, 2009
Have we decided if I'll be known as SB or sb?
SB looks like I steal bases, and my username isn’t capitalized anyway
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
I'm going to go with BS
Jeff Sullivan - July 14, 2009
bs
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 14, 2009
I'm going with Essby
just to be different.
pdb - July 14, 2009
I like this one
seattlebruin - July 15, 2009
I took this reaction from sb as proof that Kenny has gained his acceptance.
Aaron Campeau - July 14, 2009
Thanks Everyone.
I had to take the comment with a grain of salt, and it was actually pretty funny. But thanks, I’m going through the learning process and I appreciate the help along the way.
Kenny Knows Sports - July 14, 2009
Just watch yourself around Loafie's biggest fan.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 14, 2009
Does my comment come off that way?
I really am wondering, if Jose Lopez played in New York or Boston, what kind of player would he be viewed as? Going back to the comment about Lopez hitting third, if he were hitting 6th or 7th, how much of a difference would that make on peoples perception of his value?
Kenny Knows Sports - July 14, 2009
Well he'd hit a lot better
Jeff Sullivan - July 15, 2009
Put in order of age...
Rob Johnson
Ronnie Cedeno
Jose Lopez
Franklin Gutierrez
Wladimir Balentien
CMC_Stags - July 14, 2009
Hmmm, off the top of my head
Lopez, Balentien, Johnson, Cedeno, Gutierrez
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
Cedeno is older than Gutierrez, and Johnson may be too.
abender20 - July 14, 2009
Oh whoops. I thought Ronny was February 1982 and not Feb 1983. He is two weeks younger than Gutz.
abender20 - July 14, 2009
Somehow it is odd to me that you know their birthdays.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 14, 2009
I looked up ages in the not too distant past.
abender20 - July 14, 2009
Answer:
Wladimir Balentien 07/02/84
Jose Lopez 11/24/83
Franklin Gutierrez 02/21/83
Ronny Cedeno 02/02/83
Rob Johnson 07/22/82
CMC_Stags - July 14, 2009
Well ya learn something every day
I knew Wlad/Loafie and Gutz/Ronny were similar ages. I had no idea Rob Johnson was that old though
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
Wikipedia has Johnson down as July 22nd, 1983, whereas MLB.com has him at '82.
abender20 - July 14, 2009
Probably trust MLB.com on this one
first and probably last time I’ll ever type that.
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
Wait, was there a reason for this fun game?
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 14, 2009
It just seems to me that people forget that Jose is the youngest regular on the team
and has been for a few years now. He came up very young and still has some upside left as a hitter.
CMC_Stags - July 14, 2009
I hate him.
Poochie - July 14, 2009
The thing I found most amusing about him is that he actually has an outside shot at 3,000 hits
he swings enough and makes enough contact to have a huge number of batted balls in play – halfway through his age 25 season, he already has 668 ML hits and finished third in the league last year.
With some longevity, he’s got a shot – certainly it would be like a .300/.325 OBP getting there, but it’s not impossible.
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
He'd have to stay nimble in the field
to keep a regular job, and maintain batspeed through his thirties. So yeah, if he can get some of that anti-aging cream to work he’d probably run a good chance at it.
Bearskin Rugburn - July 14, 2009
He could always move to third
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
That's what they said about Vidro
Poochie - July 14, 2009
Because third basemen do not lose contact rate and footspeed as they age?
Bearskin Rugburn - July 14, 2009
Footspeed isn't as important at third.
Mariner John - July 14, 2009
I can't believe Jose Lopez has hit exactly zero 400ft homers this year
Jeff Sullivan - July 14, 2009
Do you mean exactly zero exactly 400ft homers?
Because that kind of precision is something only Ichiro is capable of.
Bearskin Rugburn - July 14, 2009
Pull happy much?
HitTracker
CMC_Stags - July 14, 2009
As is this is news
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
Link fail?
CMC_Stags - July 14, 2009
Comprehension fail
You were commenting on the news worthiness o my link. Your horrible grammar through me off…
CMC_Stags - July 14, 2009
Usually it's considered a faux pas to make fun of others grammar in a non-humorous way
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
His use of through made me laugh.
Sec 108 - July 14, 2009
Yeah?
royalcurve - July 14, 2009
Fantastic.
Teej - July 14, 2009
plus the use of o
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 14, 2009
Apparently I succumbed to spelling/grammar karma
CMC_Stags - July 14, 2009
I thought it was brilliant
intentional or no
Bearskin Rugburn - July 14, 2009
That's a typo, not a grammar error.
“As if this is news”
Matthew - July 14, 2009
Ballbusting should probably be reserved for when you've been around for a while
pdb - July 14, 2009
My bad...
CMC_Stags - July 14, 2009
No worries.
pdb - July 14, 2009
It's grammer.
M'sin.. - July 14, 2009
You've got the plague!
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 14, 2009
argh
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
Better to be the monkey that brought the AIDS then the monkey who was shipped off to the Royals
Poochie - July 14, 2009
That was the same monkey
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
Zoinks!
royalcurve - July 14, 2009
Silva kissed him and then everybody else...
The whole team should get checked no. Especially Lopez.
Ballard Erik - July 14, 2009 via mobile
Now.
Not no.
Ballard Erik - July 14, 2009 via mobile
Welcome to Typo Town, Porpulation 8
abender20 - July 14, 2009
Sharks are fish, but I don't know about porpulation
Kermit. - July 15, 2009
Alexander Gentry and his team of dastardly doers.
Hooray for obscure references
CapSea - July 15, 2009
Wow that really is obscure, nice one
Kermit. - July 16, 2009
Clearly he is talking about the population of dolpins.
Slow Country - July 15, 2009
I always believed in him!
joof - July 14, 2009
ME TOO
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
Cant comment like I used to...internet issues...
…but im still eyeing this site a ton. Us Lopez humpers have to stick together!
I will be at his Hall Of Fame induction!
Slica - July 15, 2009
I never believed in him
Jeff Sullivan - July 14, 2009
So what you're saying is that you were part of the popular club when it comes to Jose
But at least everyone can agree we need a SS more than a 2B, correct?
CMC_Stags - July 14, 2009
Absolutely yes
Jeff Sullivan - July 14, 2009
That obviously makes me a better baseball analyst then you.
joof - July 15, 2009
Boy you really don't like contractions
Jeff Sullivan - July 14, 2009
It's more of a command this way
NO. SERIOUSLY. DO NOT LOOK NOW. LOOK LATER.
pdb - July 14, 2009
I always think of it like Hedberg.
“DO” ::Oh hey I get to look:: “NOT” SHIT!
abender20 - July 14, 2009
I thought the same thing,
and was disappointed he didn’t think of a way to expand “Lopez’s”.
Faux - July 14, 2009
Possessives are not contractions.
Matthew - July 14, 2009
For all I knew, it could have been an aversion to apostrophes.
Faux - July 14, 2009
Tell him not to get pregnant again then
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
DNR, required looking.
marc w - July 14, 2009
brilliant
seattlebruin - July 14, 2009
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