Seattle: 46-42
Cleveland: 35-54
| MARINERS | INDIANS |
EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA) |
-50.2 (28th) |
28.0 (8th) |
CLE |
| FIELDING (UZR) |
33.4 (2nd) |
-23.5 (28th) |
SEA |
| ROTATION (pRAA) |
2.7 (13th) | -19.1 (22nd) |
SEA |
| BULLPEN (pRAA) |
-15.5 (27th) | -26.3 (29th) |
SEA |
| OVERALL(RAA) |
-29.6 | -40.9 |
Seattle |
Resounding success from the series with Texas! Huzzah.
Wow, Cleveland has a lot worse record than I imagined, thanks totally to their run prevention. Yikes.
The Mariners defense climbs back up into the second spot in the league, behind only the Rays. They are being dragged down by their errors, which will keep traditionalists from recognizing their greatness. The Mariners are tops in range and double plays according to UZR measurements.
Game 1: Garrett Olson* vs. Cliff Lee*
Game 2: Felix Hernandez vs. Tomo Ohka
Game 3: Jarrod Washburn* vs. David Huff*
Game 4: Erik Bedard* vs. Aaron Laffey*
Lefites! Lefties! Lefties!
It is weird how a month ago that was good news for us. Now, with Langerhans and Hannahan and some Griffey resurgence, I am unsure. I would certainly prefer to see the first two out there on defense than Balentien and Woodward. And it would be nice for Branyan to get some righties to help reverse his luck this month. At least we might see a Chris Shelton DH start?
Cliff Lee has reverted back to the 2005 version. That is by no means bad, but is also by no means like last year. With a ball% sitting around 34%, Lee pounds the strike zone and manages to miss about an average number of bats. Lucky for him, the ground ball increase has carried over from 2008 and so has his flukey home run suppression, coming in at just 3.3% of all balls in the air, roughly half the league average.
Ohka, who spent all of 2008 in Triple-A, has a lot of issues with generating strikeouts. So far he sits even with eight strikeouts and walks a piece through 20.2 innings in the rotation. It is a sample size too small to draw much of a conclusion, but his pitch results and history suggest that he will not be missing many bats. His level of success depends heavily on how much he limits the walks. Ohka throws a bad fastball, a mediocre slider and an okay changeup.
David Huff's swinging strike rate has taken a predictable nosedive since arriving in Cleveland from Triple-A, down to a below average 5.7%. He has still managed to generate a decent amount of strikeouts thanks to a good changeup. Huff is vulnerable to being hit hard.
Laffey likes to throw fastballs about 3/4s of the time and he will alternate with a slider and change at times. His fastball sits around 87 so it should come to no surprise that Laffey does not miss bats and consequently has to work outside the zone a lot. His totals this year as a starter include 17 walks to just 11 strikeouts. Laffey's calling card is ground balls. The Mariners should try to be patient and work themselves into more favorable counts forcing Laffey to either walk them or come up higher in the zone.
Sour Fest
Various
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
1 recs | 251 comments
Why is there a 24-run difference between SC and Fangraphs' evaluations of the Mariner offense?
I know the wOBA formulas are slightly different, but -50.2 vs. -26.7 is considerable.
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2009
I take it our inflated IBBs make up a lot of that
How do you use sacrifice bunts?
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2009
They are subtracted from the denominator.
StatCorner’s formula:
A = 0.72*uBB + .75*HBP + .9*single + 1.24*double + 1.56*triple + 1.95*homerun + .92*rboe
B = PA – iBB – sacBunts
wOBA = A/B
Matthew - July 16, 2009
For one, they use SB/CS
And different park factors.
Other than that, I have no idea because I have no knowledge as to FG’s wOBA formula.
Matthew - July 16, 2009
SB/CS probably doesn't make much of a difference
given that we’ve been right around the break-even rate.
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2009
Where are you seeing -26.7? I thought it was -41 wRAA? No?
marc w - July 16, 2009
That's not park adjusted.
Look under Value
Matthew - July 16, 2009
Ah, got it. Thanks.
marc w - July 16, 2009
maybe...
It could be the way things are added up at the team level. For the team stats, at least on the value tab, I just add up the individual player’s “Batting”, which is already park adjusted. Not sure if SC just calculates things as a whole on the team level or how that would change things. Our park factor is .96-ish for the Mariners.
The FanGraphs wOBA formula for recent years is calculated exactly as described here: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/woba_year_by_year_calculations/
dkappelman - July 16, 2009
Thanks David!
marc w - July 16, 2009
StatCorner calculates on the team level, rather than adding up individual players
but I cannot imagine that making much of an impact.
Matthew - July 16, 2009
park factors
My guess is that it has to do with applying the park factor before and not after. It might compound the park factor.
dkappelman - July 16, 2009
Spud Buds!
Teej - July 16, 2009
I feel rejuvenated from the break.
Let’s sweep these bitches!!!!
Pete_ - July 16, 2009
You're a right bastard.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 16, 2009
Hmmm...
I wonder if Griffey is punching Ichiro in the face. Cleveland!
PositivePaul - July 16, 2009
Larry Stone uses that quote
in his piece about the Indians
msb - July 16, 2009
It's a little sad that the Indians are this terrible.
Goose - July 16, 2009
I love the pitching matchups for the M's
Sweep!
sodomojo2459 - July 16, 2009
Yeah
If we can get a win tonight, a sweep is definitely there for the taking. If the angels then lose four straight… we’re tied for first!
twags - July 16, 2009
Tonight is big
I think we will hit Lee tonight just need Olson to hold up. I agree though, if we win tonight we have a very good pitching matchups for the remaining 3 games.
sodomojo2459 - July 16, 2009
People being optimistic disturbs appalls me
Graham MacAree - July 16, 2009
Coming off a 61-101 season, you have to be
twags - July 16, 2009
It bothers weirds me out too
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2009
Does it really seriously irritate you that much?
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
No I'm being facetious sarcastic
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2009
Oh, OK. It's almost virtually maybe like you
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
FUCKING ENTER KEY
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
're responding to a comment further up the subthread
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
The next person to reply in this subthread is banned
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2009
Neat
Dewey N - July 16, 2009
Should have used a LaHair pun for good measure.
joof - July 16, 2009
Yes but LaHair's the fun in that?
Dewey N - July 16, 2009
I love the LaHairing of memes/jokes in this thread.
marc w - July 16, 2009
I'm counting on Russell to bring his A++ game tonight
You gotta think that time off + something extra to prove == extra goodness for Mariners. Like 2 HR in one game by Russell the Muscle.
We don’t have to call him “Moose” do we? Brock & Salk have been trying to make that stick. “Roos the Moose” would not be the same.
LauraBu - July 16, 2009
SEX CANNON!!!
Kirk - July 16, 2009
I volunteer myself for target practice.
LauraBu - July 16, 2009
Get in line
Graham MacAree - July 16, 2009
How long is it?
LauraBu - July 16, 2009
Well I didn't have a ruler with me, but I'd guess about 8 inches.
Eyebrows - July 16, 2009
High Five!
LauraBu - July 16, 2009
I hate this nickname.
Why are we allowed to use this, but not Pacman for Adam Jones?
Manzanillos Cup - July 16, 2009
Of course I don't want to use either one.
Manzanillos Cup - July 16, 2009
Because Pacman is taken as a nickname and be more creative
pdb - July 16, 2009
So is Sex Cannon
Aaron Campeau - July 16, 2009
well that's a raisin in the toothpaste
pdb - July 16, 2009
When I mention Rex Grossman I don't make a cannon noise to accompany a hip thrust.
Robert - July 16, 2009
Grossman's nickname is ironic though.
Matthew - July 16, 2009
Team UZR is hawt
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
I thought it was strange that the MLB network didn't like the
Mariners defense (all the errors) on their midseason review, but by another measure, they are 2nd in the league. How can a team be last in errors and 2nd in UZR? I think it all comes back to how many balls the Mariners can get to that few other teams touch. Take LF for example, Endy and Langerhans give themselves a lot more chances to make plays (and errors) than Ibanez ever did. You can also take that Ibanez at low speed has more control over making a play (that he can get to) than those guys have crashing into the wall at full speed on a play only Carl Crawford and few others could touch out there.
PascoJoe - July 16, 2009
Something approximating that, yes.
I think fielding percentages in general demonstrate how uncommon errors really are, and therefore how minimally relevant they are to defensive performance overall. This seems to be especially true of outfielders, where errors are especially uncommon, and range is obviously so important.
Lanky - July 16, 2009
This is somewhat incorrect
errors are in fact very important to overall defensive contribution – the problem with traditional fielding percentage is that it considers errors the ONLY defensive contribution statistic.
For example, take Derek Jeter. He’s got very good hands and makes very few errors which leads to his overall defensive rating being merely bad instead of his pure range, which is horrific.
The biggest thing about errors, remember is that they tend to lead to the batter getting more than one base.
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
Well as long as it's only somewhat incorrect, I feel pretty good.
Lanky - July 16, 2009
It's mainly that you're saying errors are minimally relevant
focusing on range is good, but some players can mitigate terrible range with good hands and vice versa
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
Example?
Lanky - July 16, 2009
Derek Jeter
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
Jose Lopez, 2009 edition
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
Would Jim Edmonds qualify? My perception was he wasn't the fastest, but was amazing with his hands.
Lanky - July 16, 2009
Oh yeah... you're definitely right.
gregrabble - July 16, 2009
Innuendo!
Eyebrows - July 16, 2009
Jim Edmonds threw line drives
Poochie - July 16, 2009
The Mariners
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2009
Are mitigating terrible range with good hands?
Aren’t they doing the opposite?
Lanky - July 16, 2009
.
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
So far in 2009
we have the best range component of UZR (+37.6 runs) but the second-worst error component (-9.3 runs).
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2009
So, extrapolating from that (since I don't know where to find the data)...
If we assume that errors have a +/- 10 run variation, and range has a +/- 40 run variation, then range would be about four times more important than errors. Is that right?
Can someone direct me to that info, if it is compiled somewhere?
Lanky - July 16, 2009
That's at the extremes though
essentially, you’d rather have a guy with amazing range and hands of stone than a guy with no range but sure hands
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
Yes. I was using the extremes and assuming a bell curve distribution for performance in both areas (range and hands).
Lanky - July 16, 2009
I'm not sure what the distribution is, but I'd actually assume it's not a bell curve
I think it would look like a kinda bell curve with no steady decline – just a sudden jump to extreme outliers (the Brad Hawpes of the world)
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
Well that's a weird assumption.
Why do you think that would be?
Lanky - July 16, 2009
Because I sense it's a fairly uniform distribution
and you have a few guys who are abnormally bad or abnormally good
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
Well, I think Lanky's point is correct overall -
As Jeff mentions, the error component range from best to worst goes from 10.5 to -11.9, or around 20.
The range run, er, range goes from +37 to -29.7…. 67 runs. It’s clearly, clearly more important, and while errors matter and aren’t ‘minimally relevant,’ it’s true (and frustrating) that people use the lesser component as a proxy for defensive ability and not the main component.
It’s like measuring batters by number of triples or something.
marc w - July 16, 2009
Not disagreeing with his point
emphasizing that errors are certainly something that needs to be addressed though and can’t be written off as negligible.
You seem to be disagreeing with me a lot lately =(
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
I'm sorry, I'm trying to be more agreeable.
I was trying to extract the edible grain of truthiness from Lanky’s comment, whereas you were (rightly) removing the husk of wrong.
You are awesome, and I hate the Twilight phenomenon a little bit less because of you.
marc w - July 16, 2009
They didn't like Tampa's defense, either, from what I recall.
JLProck - July 16, 2009
Thank god the stupid break is over
I can’t take it anymore. That’s all I have to say. I’ve vacuumed repeatedly, alphabetized books, experimented with ice cream flavors (pomegranate julep granita!), and even shampooed the cat. With catnip scented shampoo in case you wondered.
LauraBu - July 16, 2009
The break actually seemed to go by really quickly for me.
Fin - July 16, 2009
I've got some floors that need washing.
LauraBu - July 16, 2009
I was lucky enough to be on a horse-packing trip during the break, so it's like I'm picking up right where I left off.
JLProck - July 16, 2009
That's a mighty big suitcase
If it holds a horse.
LauraBu - July 16, 2009
Mighty small horse.
JLProck - July 16, 2009
Like in that Jack in the Box commercial for mini sirloin burgers?
LauraBu - July 16, 2009
I still like those commercials better than
those goddamn Sterling Savings Bank commercials that try to imply that it matters where their bank is based and that nobody knows how to navigate a voice prompt tree, like they’re new and scary and have never been widely used before.
pdb - July 16, 2009
Finally someone agrees with me
gregrabble - July 16, 2009
I hate those damn Sterling commercials so much
they’re unbelievably condescending. “oh, poor stupid consumer, we know it’s hard to press 0 to talk to an agent – an agent that isn’t even going to ever be your friend! We’re not like that!” GOD
pdb - July 16, 2009
I hate talking to customer service reps on the phone when I don't need to.
Aaron Campeau - July 16, 2009
Yeah, what else is a small, regional bank going to do?
I think the ads are perfectly understandable, and if they want to get customers by NOT having voice prompt trees, more power to ‘em. I personally don’t choose a bank by their telephone procedures/manners, but whatever.
marc w - July 16, 2009
I guess my point is that it's not much of an issue either way but I don't know anyone that would prefer to get their balance/make a transfer/whatever through a customer service rep than an automated system.
Aaron Campeau - July 16, 2009
Totally.
Which is why I agree with you.
I wouldn’t choose a bank based on voice prompts or lack thereof, but I think the ads are fairly effective and not oppressively annoying. All things being equal, I think we’d all opt for a person on the other end of the line.
marc w - July 16, 2009
I wouldn't.
Aaron Campeau - July 16, 2009
The ads make me think that all of their customers are annoying incompetents
Graham MacAree - July 16, 2009
BINGO
pdb - July 16, 2009
Isn't this basically 90% of advertising?
I mean, Keystone Light’s entire multi-spot campaign is that Keystone Light drinkers are walking abortions.
The Jitterbug, anyone?
I think the Sterling ads are different, but that’s me.
marc w - July 16, 2009
Well I'll be switching from Sterlings right quick then.
Sec 108 - July 16, 2009
BE CAREFUL BECAUSE OTHER BANKS USE ROBOTS NOT PEOPLE
pdb - July 16, 2009
Exactly
gregrabble - July 16, 2009
I think that's my whole problem with it
If they want to sell the fact that they let you talk to a human by default, for example, make an ad that says so – feature an operator sitting in a cubicle with a Sterling logo shirt on and saying “I’m Rich and I work for Sterling, when you call us with a question you’ll always get me or one of my coworkers”, or something like that, rather than ads that feature and highlight apparently the only person in the world who has never navigated a touch-tone menu.
The assumption of the ads seems to be that people are rubes who need handholding for even the most basic of business tasks, and like AC I don’t really know anybody for which that is a differentiating factor.
pdb - July 16, 2009
re: feature an operator sitting in a cubicle with a Sterling logo shirt on and saying "I’m Rich and I work for Sterling, when you call us with a question you’ll always get me or one of my coworkers",
WORST. AD. CONCEPT. EVER.
That’s basically the idea behind the Timeshares Only ads, and FUCK the Timeshares Only ads.
marc w - July 16, 2009
But I think you know what I mean though
if Sterling is trying to sell their human-based service as a competitive advantage, don’t make an ad that infers that normal people are too stupid to follow a voice prompt menu.
pdb - July 16, 2009
That's fair.
And while I don’t think that’s the entire point of the ad, I get that they’re skirting mighty close to saying that their customers are annoying incompetents.
marc w - July 16, 2009
I think the concept might be ok but the actor is awful
He’s supposed to be some sort of manager, right? A normal, ‘this could be you’ guy?
Instead he takes all of the annoying managerial aspects that could possibly be crammed into a 30 second commercial and combines them into an unlikeable incompetent stuttering fuckhead.
Graham MacAree - July 16, 2009
Very true.
Same guy in the other one, trying to tell the operator where Washington State is.
THAT’S the one that really gets me. Why on earth would you call up, oh, Chase, and tell them that you are a customer in Washington state? What’s the point of it? What are you asking Chase to DO about it?
Again, I know that they’re pushing the local angle, but I don’t get what they’re saying unless it’s “We’re the bank for those annoying people who always want to give their life story to the cashier or to the customer service line or the ticket window person.”
marc w - July 16, 2009
That one bugs me way more as well.
It’s not like WaMu was really all that local anymore.
Of all the banking ad campaigns that are on right now, the worst has got to be Chase’s “Let’s start banking better, Washington” ads. Those bring me very close to flying into a murderous rage.
Aaron Campeau - July 16, 2009
Those have to be the most poorly thought out ads in a long time.
Sec 108 - July 16, 2009
Banner Bank is annoying too.
Can we just agree that banks suck at advertising?
Matthew - July 16, 2009
There was a (very) brief moment in Washington Mutual's ad history
where they made a few funny ones,— primarily because they were cast with Don Lake, Deb Theaker, Jane Lynch, Melissa McCarthy & Tim Dekay …
msb - July 16, 2009
Were those the ones where they mocked the Californians?
pdb - July 16, 2009
Lets see
Theaker & Lake had the ad where he toted up her extra costs for asking questions at the window; Lynch, Dekay & McCarthy were in the one where Lynch barcoded Dekay’s forehead …
msb - July 16, 2009
How the hell do you know the names of the actors
in 10 year old WaMu ads?
(And yeah, the barcode one was pretty good).
marc w - July 16, 2009
Because I knew the actors first ...
Deb Theaker (SCTV, a fine KITH cameo), Don Lake & Jane Lynch all have been part of the Christopher Guest rep company; McCarthy was on Gilmore girls
msb - July 16, 2009
Oh yeah, I remember those
they were pretty funny.
pdb - July 16, 2009
Yeah.
The Chase ads go beyond bad advertising and into “THIS WHOLE MESS IS YOUR FAULT!!!” territory though.
Aaron Campeau - July 16, 2009
Yeah, that's the one that kills me more
Does he get a cookie for being in Washington state instead of DC? Does the phone operator not understand that there is a state named Washington?
pdb - July 16, 2009
Spending enough time on the east coast
I can vouch that many people out there are unaware that Washington is a state name.
Matthew - July 16, 2009
Unaware?
I’d say it’s probably more likely that they just don’t think of the state first. I’m splitting hairs, but yeah
tootthekazoo - July 16, 2009
I have met more than a few that were completely unaware that's what the state was called.
Matthew - July 16, 2009
Me too.
Sec 108 - July 16, 2009
I worked with a guy in Hartford who didn't realize that Washington wasn't named after Washington DC
pdb - July 16, 2009
I hate our state name.
Matthew - July 16, 2009
I like how they retroactively tried to change the origin from the president to the pioneer
Robert - July 16, 2009
I like how they changed it from Columbia
because ‘Columbia’ might make people think of the District of Columbia.
oops.
marc w - July 16, 2009
With the Four little numbers!
PositivePaul - July 16, 2009
Herding cows the size of schnauzers but they're cattle
LauraBu - July 16, 2009
Jack in the box commercials weird me out...
At this point their advertisements seem to say that their food is only for people who are high. Knowing what high people will eat, that makes me never want to approach one.
Taco Bell seems to have adopted the same strategy.
arbeck77 - July 16, 2009
Reminds me of a news story where the cops sat in a fast food parking lot
And just waited for people to drive up at 2 AM to bust them for DUIs. Like bears waiting with open mouths in a river during salmon spawning season.
LauraBu - July 16, 2009
Jack in the Box excells at being delicious and horribly disgusting at the same time.
Teej - July 16, 2009
delicious when you're high, but disgusting otherwise?
arbeck77 - July 16, 2009
I don't smoke weed yet I still find it delicious.
gregrabble - July 16, 2009
I agree. I eat it maybe once a month after drinking as a guilty pleasure
followed by a why did I just do that.
Sec 108 - July 16, 2009
The mini sirloin burgers were horrendous
Robert - July 16, 2009
This.
Buffalo Ranch Chicken Sandwiches aren’t much better. Then again, I fucking hate buffalo sauce.
The Typical Idiot Fan - July 16, 2009
Or Menopausal women!
But I really like their commercials otherwise. They’re mostly clever.
joof - July 16, 2009
Do you understand the one with the old people?
They like the Filet O’Fish and wear snuggies? I don’t get it at all… maybe I need to smoke some weed.
arbeck77 - July 16, 2009
I think the Snuggie was just a nod to pop culture
the thrust of the ad was that those people will never try anything but their beloved Filet o Fish, and thus if you’re not like those people you’ll try Jack in the Box.
pdb - July 16, 2009
Rance Howard.
msb - July 16, 2009
I took it to mean that I should never order a teriyaki bowl
Because I love the filet o’ fish.
arbeck77 - July 16, 2009
That's the best one in a while.
The way the wife adds in ‘soft’ is spot-on. I don’t care that it’s got nothing to do with the teriyaki bowls, I still think it’s a good ad. Not stoner-y at all.
marc w - July 16, 2009
I'm not saying it isn't funny
I laughed the first time I saw it. I just don’t understand what its supposed to be saying. Since my favorite fast food item is the filet o’fish, I take it to mean I should avoid the teriyaki bowl at all cost. They come right out and say that you’ll hate it in the commercial. I’m not sure that’s the most effective way to advertise something.
But then again, I’m probably not their target demographic. Though being a 31 y/o male with no kids who eats away from the home 4-5 times a week and is slightly overweight, you’d think I would be. I guess I just don’t smoke enough pot.
arbeck77 - July 16, 2009
Does McD still have the filet o'fish?
for the first time in years, I’ve been in maybe twice? in the last year or so, and I didn’t see it up on the wall— because I would have ordered it
msb - July 16, 2009
It seems to me that it's an ad that can have different items subbed in as necessary
It’s not a “Teriyaki Bowls” commercial, it’s a “Jack in the Box is different and here’s why” commercial
tootthekazoo - July 16, 2009
It's saying that if you don't like flavor or to try new things
Don’t buy the teriyaki bowl.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 16, 2009
"Soft" is definitely the best part. Followed by "That's a nice piece of fish."
royalcurve - July 16, 2009
Agreed.
marc w - July 16, 2009
I love the fact that Jack In The Box is catering to the stoner contingent though
it’s at least a tacit acknowledgment that fast food is a natural extension of the getting-high experience for a lot of people, and it’s not like they can say “Smoked weed all day? Come to Jack In The Box!”, so they’re at least playing with the stereotypes a bit.
pdb - July 16, 2009
The first one was better.
“How many should I get?!”
“Thirty!”
The Typical Idiot Fan - July 16, 2009
Yesterday just served to remind me how terrible the day after the All Star Game is
Thank god we’re back in action tonight, and a 4pm local start, even! Here’s to hoping that the M’s can breeze through Cleveland and get some good vibes going for us all.
And I’m ready for another trade here at any time, guys…
tootthekazoo - July 16, 2009 via mobile
The day before and after the All-Star game are the only two calendar days of the year
that their are no games scheduled in any of the four major sports.
Sec 108 - July 16, 2009
The WNBA begs to differ, thank you very much
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
He's such an insensitive prick
tootthekazoo - July 16, 2009
Keep this up I'm gonna mushroom stamp you.
Sec 108 - July 16, 2009
It's probably best to mushroom stamp if you have an insensitive prick.
royalcurve - July 16, 2009
brilliant.
marc w - July 16, 2009
Well done
tootthekazoo - July 16, 2009
Hahaha
Goose - July 16, 2009
That's not the only thing they are begging for.
Sec 108 - July 16, 2009
Tall chicks need love too
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
They also need money.
I sense a solution to both problems.
Matthew - July 16, 2009
Replacement apple pickers?
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
Bullshit
The All-Star game doesn’t count
tootthekazoo - July 16, 2009
That
marc w - July 16, 2009
Is why you watch the AAA all-star game!
Great stuff.
Shelly Duncan, still a zombie.
marc w - July 16, 2009
He got booed a lot louder at the Home Run Derby than at the ASG which was disappointing
But then he came out at the HRD to “New York New York” which is like nails on a chalkboard. That was a fun All-Star Game; shame it’ll be the last significant baseball game at PGE.
pdb - July 16, 2009
Any movement on getting a baseball stadium done?
Sec 108 - July 16, 2009
There is a small bit of political will to do it
but now they’re back to the site selection process, with the best site (Coliseum) completely off the table because fuck these goddamn people are stupid. But, in a fortuitous development, two of the sites on that list (Portland Meadows/East Delta Park and PIR) are ~5 min from my house so that’s good from a PIMBY (please in my back yard) standpoint.
The complicating factor now is that the Beavers’ franchise agreement with the Padres expires after 2010, and if a stadium deal isn’t in place soon, (ideally by the end of this calendar year), the Padres will likely look elsewhere for a home for their AAA team.
pdb - July 16, 2009
I hope it gets figured out but it sounds like it won't be timely.
Sec 108 - July 16, 2009
I have a feeling that Portland being Portland
if there’s even a hint that a site might be selected they’ll get a deal done and sweat the details next season. Paulson’s said several times he wants to keep the Beavers in town somewhere and if he lets them leave people will have the perception that he forced them out to get MLS in, which isn’t true. And he seems to care what people think so that’s a good motivator to get a deal done.
pdb - July 16, 2009
There is such an enormous discrepancy between the team's baseruns differentail
and the… whatever you call the overall figure up there. Any insights as to why? Which should be taken more seriously – the baseruns, which have us being outscored by 3, or the wRAA above, which have us as three wins below average overall?
Bearskin Rugburn - July 16, 2009
I imagine Matthew would say the BaseRuns
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2009
OK
but Baseruns, so far as I can tell, is not a defense/park-neutral stat…. and Matthew just answered what I was about to say.
Bearskin Rugburn - July 16, 2009
If you replace UZR with xRR, the gap narrows to about a 15 run difference between the two.
Which is nowhere near enormous. Not that 30 is enormous either.
As for which to take more “serious”,
-shrug- I would take BaseRuns estimate of runs scored over wOBA, but I would take tRA + UZR/xRR over BaseRuns estimate of runs allowed.Matthew - July 16, 2009
Well, 30 wouldn't be huge at the end of the season
but heading out of the ASB I think it makes a difference. I mean, the team is average by one measure and on pace for a ~75 win season by the other. Anyway… thanks for the clarification. BaseRuns seems to me to be of very limited use when it comes to looking at run prevention ability though pretty good for for looking at actual run prevention (which… how much better than actual RA is that really?).
Bearskin Rugburn - July 16, 2009
Heh heh.
From Drayer:
“Beautiful day here, appropriate for “Beach Week” at Progressive Field. Unfortunately, looks like it could get a little stormy the next couple of days. Have not had access yet, but can tell you that Adrian Beltre is back with the team. Was playing catch with Antony Suzuki during early hitting. Yuni was not there. Wait a second…"
msb - July 16, 2009
Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep
I actually heard an ESPN analyst predict the M’s winning the AL West last night, I was in absolute shock
gregrabble - July 16, 2009
NO DON'T JINX IT GOD DAMN YOU ESPN
LauraBu - July 16, 2009
If they show up on the cover of SI be worried
ESPN could only jinx them if the M’s were named the “most now team” or something like that.
pdb - July 16, 2009
Well we're currently discussing the Mariners
you might say we’re talking about them right NOW
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
But we avert the evil eye by mocking various players and keeping a low profile
LauraBu - July 16, 2009
WHO'S NOW?
No one, you idiots. That’s a nonsensical question.
Llewdor - July 16, 2009
Actually Steve Phillips did us in last year.
Damn you Steve Phillips and your shitty analyzing methods!
Fin - July 16, 2009
ESPN hasn't been THAT bad lately
Robert - July 16, 2009
So what is wrong with the Indians?
Obviously the consensus is that the franchise really knows what they’re doing, and they are only two years removed from a 96 win season. I can understand how a well run team can have a mediocre year like they did last year, but they had a pretty miserable first half playing in a weak division.
I can see a few things: Kerry Wood has sucked. Grady Sizemore has been unlucky. Their defense seems to have fallen off a cliff. Carmona can’t throw a strike to save his life.
And they’d rather have Ben Francisco in left than Gutz?? Is Valbuena really worth that much?
Manzanillos Cup - July 16, 2009
Don't forget Hafner forgetting how to play baseball
pdb - July 16, 2009
He's good again now
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2009
guess I should pay more attention to the Indians
oh wait, no I shouldn’t.
pdb - July 16, 2009
Then you'd have to punch yourself in the face...
PositivePaul - July 16, 2009
I actually enjoyed Cleveland when I was there
Granted, I was only there for a day and a half, but I had fun. Don’t think I could live there though.
pdb - July 16, 2009
Hafner has a ,403 wOBA
Goose - July 16, 2009
Transporter malfunction
Rift in the time-space continuum put us in a parallel universe where the Ms became the Indians and vice-versa.
LauraBu - July 16, 2009
Boy has Cleveland been unlucky
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2009
Also, bad.
Matthew - July 16, 2009
But not that much worse than us
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2009
The answer is no. No Chris Shelton start.
Matthew - July 16, 2009
So... is Franklin going to make Dave's Top 50 Trade Value countdown?
He’s through #16 and he’s not there yet, but Felix is
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
My guess is there's not enough oomph in his bat to make the list
I mean, the last 30 games or so have been great but you can’t think this is his true talent. Granderson is already on it, and I would give up Guti for Granderson in a heart beat. A sad heartbeat, but only one all the same.
Bearskin Rugburn - July 16, 2009
But Granderson makes a lot more money than Gutz
and Gutz is projecting as a 6-win player this year
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
Service time, contract.
Matthew - July 16, 2009
So this is a maybe?
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
He's probably on it
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2009
Actually...
maybe not. Dave already listed Adam Jones and he doesn’t think that Franklin Gutierrez is as valuable as Adam Jones.
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2009
I don't think Gutz is a top 15,
but I fail to see how he’s not a top 50.
Matthew - July 16, 2009
Yeah now I'm confused
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2009
Dave has responded and said that there are "too many strikes" against Gutierrez to put him on the list
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2009
Homophobia strikes again
Graham MacAree - July 16, 2009
So USSM *is* as racist as we are!
Poochie - July 16, 2009
I didn't realize that he responded to comments anymore.
I thought he’d totally given up on that.
Lanky - July 16, 2009
Probably not in comments.
e-mail is more likely.
marc w - July 16, 2009
Hmm...
Aaron Campeau - July 16, 2009
Especially since he wasn't even on the "barely missed the cut" list.
Aaron Campeau - July 16, 2009
-defense peaks early
-power still mostly limited to hitting against lefties
-arby eligible soon
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2009
Not buying it.
Matthew - July 16, 2009
That's kind of where I'm at.
Maybe Dave’s operating under the assumption that a lot of GMs don’t understand just how great his glove is, so that kind of kills his value.
Teej - July 16, 2009
Doing that list subjectively would be dumb.
Matthew - July 16, 2009
Really?
Adam Jones and Colby Rasmus profile as above-average center fielders with better bats than Gutierrez, and they’re under control for longer, so I’d be surprised to see Gutierrez rank higher than either of those guys.
Teej - July 16, 2009
Under control for longer and significantly younger
Nate Dogg - July 16, 2009
It's Adam Jones 2nd full year of service time this year
same as Gutz. Rasmus is in his first
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
You got it backwards
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2009
I thought Rasmus was a rookie
and I listed Jones and Gutz with the same amount of service time?
marc w may be disagreeing with me lately because I seem to be mixing my facts a lot lately… =(
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
I mean you got the intent of his comment backwards
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2009
Stupid
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2009
But you're still charming as hell!
marc w - July 16, 2009
Yay!
now if I just post less crazy things… =(
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
Who's cooler - Bella or oh god I don't even know the vampire's name
pdb - July 16, 2009
Edward?
given that I despise both main characters from Twilight, I’ll go with neither
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
Graham needs to hurry up and finish his filter to automatically delete all comments that pertain to Twilight
though that’s going to cut my comment count in half.
It’ll improve my rec/comment ratio though.
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
In the same way that removing all records of strikeouts will improve your BA.
Eyebrows - July 16, 2009
So you're more of an Emmett fan?
Lanky - July 16, 2009
No
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
Robert tells me my 20,000 comment pertained to Twilight.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 16, 2009
you must be so proud
pdb - July 16, 2009
Are you at 20k already? Wow.
I don’t think I’m at 20k and I’ve been posting since… I dunno. 2005 or 6.
Bearskin Rugburn - July 16, 2009
It appears your comments have only been recording since 2008
Probably the switchover or something.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 16, 2009
He's probably adding in his old username.
marc w - July 16, 2009
It says February 2008 for me but I'm positive I've been around longer than that
Not sure what’s going on there
tootthekazoo - July 16, 2009
I've been posting since May 06 but it only shows when I started using the Robert username
Robert - July 16, 2009
I have made 1,500 comments since the Mariners @ Padres series
wow.
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
What the butt?!
royalcurve - July 16, 2009
I agree wholeheartedly.
marc w - July 16, 2009
He's saying Jones and Rasmus are a few years younger than Gutz.
Teej - July 16, 2009
Yes
Nate Dogg - July 16, 2009
Although I may be wrong about team control
but thats what I get for piggy backing on anything Teej says I guess.
Nate Dogg - July 16, 2009
Gutz is in his third year.
Arb-eligible this winter.
Teej - July 16, 2009
But the bats....
Graderson’s got a .350 wOBA, and his BABIP this year is 50 points below career average. Guti’s a better fielder, but a guy can’t keep putting up +15 seasons in CF right? That’s just ricockulous.
Bearskin Rugburn - July 16, 2009
Would Gutz be ahead of Rasmus and Jones?
Nate Dogg - July 16, 2009
I love Franklin, but no
He’s not Top 50. His power mostly plays against LHPs, defense declines early so he’s probably already peaked in value (this really is his upside – he can’t do better than a .350 wOBA and +20 defense), and he’s arb eligible this winter. There are too many guys who are comparable in present value, better in future value, and are under club control longer.
davidcameron - July 16, 2009
Let me clarify for a second
He can do better than a .350 wOBA, but probably not until his skills mature to the point where he’s not a +20 defender anymore. I could see him getting a .360 to .370 wOBA if he takes some improvements offensively, but he’d probably be more like a +5 to +10 defender by that point.
davidcameron - July 16, 2009
So essentially this is his peak overall value
and while it’s possible to maintain that value by gaining offense and losing defense, he probably won’t be better overall, plus he’ll cost more?
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
Yep
This is kind of like his version of Tulowitzki’s ’07 season.
davidcameron - July 16, 2009
How early does defense typically peak?
Is it different for outfielders and infielders? Is there anything like the old player skills vs. young player skills for defense as well?
For example, it seems as if speedy outfielders tend to age well defensively (Cameron, Lofton), as opposed to corners and middle infielders who can get very bad very quickly.
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
Here ya go
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/fielding-aging-curves/
davidcameron - July 16, 2009
Awesome, thank you!
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
This is truly incredible
seattlebruin - July 16, 2009
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