As of this writing, the Mariners' odds of making the playoffs are somewhere around 9.5-10%.
Based on his season numbers to date, the odds of Jose Lopez smacking an extra-base hit in any given plate appearance are 9.5%.
I don't know if this makes me feel happy or sad.
0 recs | 66 comments
Well I never think Lopez is going to smack an extra-base hit when he steps to the plate so shit
Gihyou - July 24, 2009
Alternatively the odds of Jose Lopez striking out in any given plate appearance are only a little bit higher
Jeff Sullivan - July 24, 2009
Well that's surprising, I often think Lopez will strike out when he steps to the plate
Perhaps what I think has nothing to do with Lopez’s actual production or the Mariners’ playoff hopes.
Gihyou - July 24, 2009
Yeah, I'm sure he'll strike out everytime, unless there's a runner on first
to double up, then I expect a ground ball. So I guess I’ll have to expect we’re going to the playoffs!
JMKaustin - July 24, 2009
Well... given the number of bad contracts on the team, the fact that they cut payroll by 20%,
and how flawed the roster was as of last November, I am personally thrilled to be where we are. We’re ten wins off last years’ total, and it’s not August yet. Whatever October brings, June and July have been the most enjoyable months of baseball since 03.
Bearskin Rugburn - July 24, 2009
Everytime Jose Lopez hits an extra-base hit.
I’ll yell out Playoffs!
Hopefulmsfan - July 24, 2009
He's due!
calim - July 24, 2009
So if Jack decides to sell, how are you all gonna feel?
I’ll be okay with it. As much as I like the idea of taking a shot, putting all our eggs in one long shot basket would be kinda scary and I wouldn’t blame Jack Z if he decided to give himself another year to bring it all together. If Jack deals Bedard and Wash for prospects, I’ll be totally able to get behind it. How bout you?
DAMellen - July 24, 2009
I want Washburn dealt regardless of what happens.
We have a chance to get value for him. Something nobody thought possible just 6 months ago. We absolutely have to take advantage of it.
But if Jack decides to outright sell, I trust his judgment.
Goose - July 24, 2009
I have just recently started letting myself get excited about the prospects for this season.
So, a total sell-off would now put a bit of a damper on things. But, like most of you, I trust that Zduriencik will make the most of his moves and will actually improve the team for now and in the future. Unless is all goes down before then, the 31st should be a pretty cool day.
jimmylauderdale - July 24, 2009
I still trade at least one of the starters if it gets us back a young player who can make us better next season.
Trading either Wash or Bedard doesn’t hurt this year’s team too bad. We’ll still be able to go out and win our fair share of games, accomplishing what Wak and Z want which is improvement and winning baseball down the stretch here.
I think if we remain in our current position of 6 games back in the loss column, it would be careless to hang onto both pitchers, particularly Washburn, who should be able to bring back a young player or prospect who would help us in 2010.
Rudy4three - July 24, 2009
I will kill myself if we trade Branyan
Poochie - July 24, 2009
Not after he trades Branyan for Rasmus.
abender20 - July 24, 2009
Why would St. Louis make that trade?
They have a pretty good 1B, and they don’t have a DH spot available. That’s like trading Rasmus for a PH who gets 1 AB per game. I don’t even think they would trade Colby Rasmus for Roy Halladay, let along Branyan.
brian_sun - July 24, 2009
it's almost like he was kidding.
pdb - July 24, 2009
Actually I agree with brian_sun
The Cardinals would be fools to trade Rasmus for Branyan. What’s the point in plugging the hole at third by opening up a leak in center. Plus you lose five years of club I control. I give that trade four thumbs down.
Poochie - July 24, 2009
Look, it's one thing to poke holes in a perfectly solid trade proposal, but making shit up is just uncalled for.
You only have two thumbs. Unless you grew up in Richland.
abender20 - July 24, 2009
I made the two thumbs down motion twice
Poochie - July 24, 2009
The South Hill has Eyes
abender20 - July 24, 2009
The South Hill is a giant reverse fualt.
InSpokane - July 24, 2009
I don't know what that means, but not really, no.
abender20 - July 24, 2009
Yes.
InSpokane - July 24, 2009
A pretty good 1B?
gregrabble - July 24, 2009
If you thought of Jose Lopez you should by default be happy
seattlebruin - July 24, 2009
The sexy beast that he is.
marinerdan - July 24, 2009
It makes me slightly nauseous
Poochie - July 24, 2009
Even if they don't make the playoffs it has been one hell of a season. If they do make the playoffs hot fucking damn.
InSpokane - July 24, 2009
So then what are the odds of Jose Lopez smacking an extra-base hit which puts the Mariners into the playoffs?
Spoomeister - July 24, 2009
0.0925%
The Ancient Mariner - July 24, 2009
Boned
abender20 - July 24, 2009
I have saved up £1000 and ten days off work in case we reach the playoffs.
If we get to the playoffs I will be there even if I have to attack an old granny and take her ticket.
EnglishMariner - July 24, 2009 via mobile
It'll be nice to have that money for something else come October
calim - July 24, 2009
You can stay at my house!
Proclamation: Any Mariners fan who lives out of the USA has a free place to stay chez moi if we make the playoffs. I mean it!
Imagine a really cool bed and breakfast with a view of the Space Needle, just without breakfast.
LauraBu - July 24, 2009
Possible playoff ticket strategy: call ticketmaster through the Canadian (Vancouver B.C.) office - that's how my dad got tickets for the entire playoffs in 1995.
Which were also literally the first MLB games I ever went to . I have no idea if it still works like this 14 years later, but it’s worth looking into at least.
Decatur - July 24, 2009
We would be a shoe-in for the playoffs if we were in the NL.
It’s not like we would be killed by losing the DH either.
Manzanillos Cup - July 24, 2009
Speaking of bad DHs, oh gawd
Mike Sweeney has four unintentional walks all year. Cedeno, Lopez, and Betancourt walk more than Mike Sweeney.
Manzanillos Cup - July 24, 2009
Actually his BB% is better than Lopez and Betancourt
Barely.
Mariner John - July 24, 2009
BB% includes IBBs
Manzanillos Cup - July 24, 2009
Ok here's a better argument
It’s about the same as Lopez’s. And Sweeney’s uBB% has never been this low in his career while Lopez’s is about the same as it’s always been. So this is either age related or bad luck.
Mariner John - July 24, 2009
Age related seems like a stretch because BBs usually go up if anything.
Aaron Campeau - July 24, 2009
1 more start for Washburn on July 28, and then Jack Z
still have 3 more days to trade him.
brian_sun - July 24, 2009
Eh, after that he can still get moved. It's just a little bit more complicated
At least this year Dave Valle isn’t in the booth talking about post-trade deadline moves.
Kermit. - July 24, 2009
I've been assuming that he's not getting traded.
ThundaPC - July 24, 2009
Washburn will probably be a last minute deal if anything.
Only because teams would rather discuss Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Bedard first. When those prices could be too rich, they then go into the secondary market.
Wilder. - July 24, 2009
Sell.
If we’re under 25% probability at the deadline, I would sell. I keep hearing people say “you can’t rebuild forever”, but we’ve only been rebuilding one year. I’m perfectly ready and willing to improve my chances the next two (or more) years in exchange for surrendering this year.
Lanky - July 24, 2009
I'm not convinced selling is surrendering
Especially if end up only selling Wash. With hyphen back and Morriw on track we can sell Wash and remain in our improbable hunt.
Snuffleupagus - July 24, 2009 via mobile
Yeah
No matter what happens, it’s not like this team is going to go through a fire sale. We’re probably just going to trade shorter-term players for longer-term players.
Jeff Sullivan - July 24, 2009
I'm not either.
But if it WERE surrendering any chance of making the playoffs this year, I would still do it.
Lanky - July 24, 2009
Game tonight
How early would an individual need to get to the game to get a bobblehead? I live out of town and this is my first game this year. I’m not sure what the crowds have been like.
Oh, and uh Jose doesn’t get many extra base hits… And other on topic things.
Snuffleupagus - July 24, 2009 via mobile
Be there an hour early.
Grab a bobble head and go back to your car so you don’t have to worry about someone jacking it away during the game.
Wilder. - July 24, 2009
And grab one for me!
Eyebrows - July 24, 2009
An hour before gates open, minimum.
Tons of ebay geeks get in line early and then head home and put them up for sale right away. They are usually gone by 5:30-6PM.
Sec 108 - July 24, 2009
You need to be there before 6:10pm
As Sec said, people grab them all up. I say 5:30pm, and then go eat or something
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 24, 2009
Thanks
Go M’s!
Snuffleupagus - July 24, 2009 via mobile
And
Fuck the Angels.
Snuffleupagus - July 24, 2009 via mobile
Wait Safeco allows retentry?
seattlebruin - July 24, 2009
Yup.
msb - July 24, 2009
Gotta get a handstamp on the way out though
pdb - July 24, 2009
Here is another Safeco question--
anyone ever had a guest/been a tourist with luggage at the game? Do they have any sort of check-luggage option?
msb - July 24, 2009
I doubt it, but for around $10 I'll bet the bellhop at Silver Cloud will hold it.
Sec 108 - July 24, 2009
It's an "overnight bag" so it may fit under the seat ...
msb - July 24, 2009
No bags bigger than backpack/messenger bag/large purse size, nowhere to stow anything.
Aaron Campeau - July 24, 2009
Yah, they have that 16 x 16 x 8 rule...
msb - July 24, 2009
No stamp anymore. Just take your ticket and they scan you out then back in.
Sec 108 - July 24, 2009
Technology is awesome.
pdb - July 24, 2009
People tend to re-tent when Gutz bats a few hitters after Branyan.
abender20 - July 24, 2009
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