Results of Washburn's 'Flipper' pitch on the year, assuming I have isolated it properly in the PITCHfx numbers (of which I am confident):
| Count | Percent | |
| Total Thrown | 106 | 5.6% |
| Strikes | 56 | 52.8% |
| Swings | 23 | 21.7% |
| StS | 9 | 8.5% |
| StF | 4 | 3.8% |
| StI | 10 | 9.4% |
| StC | 33 | 31.1% |
Washburn hasn't thrown a whole lot of them for strikes, but that's to be expected for three reasons:
(1) It's not a pitch with which he has much experience
(2) Curveballs tend to be thrown for balls more often than other pitches
(3) Batters haven't swung at it
It's that last point that's the key. On average, about 60% of curveballs are taken, and about 11% of curveballs go for called strikes. With the Flipper, though, 78% have been taken, and 31% have gone for called strikes. Pitchers talk all the time about how something they throw is intended to mess with the hitters' timing, but Washburn's actually done it. With acknowledgement of the sample size, a called strike rate of 31% is extraordinary.
Jarrod Washburn isn't very good. He's just not, and too many people continue to let themselves get tricked by ERA. However, just because he's nothing special doesn't mean he hasn't improved, and one of the reasons he's been able to get better has been his embracing of the slow curve. Make no mistake. It's no Mr. Snappy, and its name is kind of stupid, but Jarrod's Flipper does appear to be a weapon.
1 recs | 71 comments
Jeebus
His overall StC% is 15.3. He has thrown the Flipper for a called strike more than twice as much as any other pitch.
Jeff, how much of this do you think is due to the novelty of it? i.e., hitters haven’t seen it from Wash and so they take it to be careful, like with Livian Hernandez’s eephus pitch or whatever the hell he calls it.
calim - July 24, 2009
Hard to say, but I think that's definitely a concern
We’ll just have to monitor how it does going forward.
Jeff Sullivan - July 24, 2009
I wonder how much that regression could be balanced out by his increased experience with it.
It may well turn out to be a wash.
Get it? A wash? Get it? Like Wash-burn!
Lanky - July 24, 2009
New post up above this one!
Jeff Sullivan - July 24, 2009
Man I hope they are listening to offers for this guy.
Mariner Melee - July 24, 2009
Baker thinks we should keep him and offer him an extension.
pukes
Phil Hatzenbuehler - July 24, 2009
3 years, 3 million. Take it or leave it.
abender20 - July 24, 2009
Seems like if we can get him next year for 5-8 million,
it would be a good value for us. And since he seems to interested in staying here, he just might sign for something like that. He’s been worth 2.5 wins so far this year, and even with regression, he should be worth 2 wins next year I’d think.
JMKaustin - July 24, 2009
I'm not opposed to that entirely.
However, while he should have no problem justifying a 5-8 mill contract from a WAR perspective, if you can get similar production from Vargas and his really cheap contract, that money could be spent on something else.
abender20 - July 24, 2009
Agreed.
If Jack Z. feels that we already have enough depth at sp, there’s no reason to pay for more.
JMKaustin - July 24, 2009
"should be worth 2 wins next year I’d think."
For what it’s worth,
Washburn’s WAR 2006-8: 1.9, 1.8, 1.3
He has pitched legit better than last year, but he is also bearing down on 35.
Matthew - July 24, 2009
Yeah, I am very uncomfortable with the assumptions people make about this year
being repeatable. Like sb has said a few times, 1 year deal at $4M or trade his ass now.
Sec 108 - July 24, 2009
Yeah, $4 mil is much less risky.
JMKaustin - July 24, 2009
That's a valid point also.
I’m not coming from a perspective that extending Wash is the right thing to do. But I think with an excellent defence behind him, he could provide value as a starter next year. Also, I’m 100% behind trading him if we can get some value from him that way.
JMKaustin - July 24, 2009
Well of course he does
Jeff Sullivan - July 24, 2009
Actually that was a reasonable article
Jeff Sullivan - July 24, 2009
It WAS a reasonable article
it confuses me a little bit how he reaches the conclusion he does though.
Fuckmikereilly - July 24, 2009
Ehhh
There’s a reasonable argument to be made that he’s worth re-signing, as long as he doesn’t want too much money.
Jeff Sullivan - July 24, 2009
And I agree with that argument
But the fact that Wash will want more money than is reasonable, and Baker still says resign him, is what confuses me.
Fuckmikereilly - July 24, 2009
I might have missed it
Where does Baker say Wash will want more money than what’s reasonable?
calim - July 24, 2009
He didn't.
abender20 - July 24, 2009
I'm actually not convinced that Washburn will want a lot of money
He thought about retiring just a few months ago, he likes it here, and he’s honest about what he can do. But, who knows. Boras.
Jeff Sullivan - July 24, 2009
He'd be insane not to cash in on a sub 4 ERA
Poochie - July 24, 2009
My thoughts exactly. If he hits the open market there is no way he returns.
So why would he sign early?
Sec 108 - July 24, 2009
True, but he said he'd like to extend his contract here now,
due to feeling comfortable in Seattle. Don’t know if that’s just talk or if he means it.
JMKaustin - July 24, 2009
I don't know that he really cares
Jeff Sullivan - July 24, 2009
Yeah I suppose doing it two times would be Gallagher
Poochie - July 24, 2009
Why can't this happen to us with players that are good?
Manzanillos Cup - July 24, 2009
I guess if he really does want money, then I'd be very content resigning him
As long as we have money for Beltre!
Fuckmikereilly - July 24, 2009
Memo to Boras:
Package deal, Adrian and Jarrod.
Ades for 4 years, 50 mil
Wash for 2 years, 8 mil
dbroncos31 - July 24, 2009
Or more for Beltre
dbroncos31 - July 24, 2009
As much as I love Adrian 4 for 50 is too much risk.
Aaron Campeau - July 24, 2009
34 year old Beltre likely won't be as good
Mariner John - July 24, 2009
As others have said before, most of his value is tied up in his defense and defense is the first skill to decline.
Aaron Campeau - July 24, 2009
Yes, exactly.
Plus his offense in Safeco would likely be worse at that point, barring strange aging pattern.
Mariner John - July 24, 2009
Whatever. His agent works for him, mo-fo!
Lanky - July 24, 2009
Tell that to Trevor Ariza
dbroncos31 - July 24, 2009
First of all, to clarify, I was paraphrasing Washburn.
Second of all, who the hell is Trevor Ariza?
Lanky - July 24, 2009
He plays in a league that goes by the name "NBA"
I believe it stands for Not Basketball, Actually.
Craig Powers - July 24, 2009
A man whose agent killed his career.
Ariza was a key part of the Lakers last year, and was a free agent this summer. He wanted to come back to LA, where he was a fan favorite and a good role player.
But his agent was a dick and strung along LA, demanding 8-9 million. LA was willing to offer about 6 mil, which his agent said wouldn’t be enough.
So the Lakers called his bluff and signed a similar player for 6 million, and Ariza ended up signing with Houston (who is going to be TERRIBLE this year) for the same amount of money ($6 mil).
So now instead of being on a championship caliber team as a fan favorite (who would likely be a 4th or 5th option), he’s on an awful team as one of their top options. So basically he will likely struggle this year on a 25-57 team that has no real love for him.
All because his agent tried to play hardball. Ariza admitted that he was upset about what happened because he was willing to take 6 mil to stay in LA.
Ridiculously long story short, agents sometimes fuck shit up for their clients.
dbroncos31 - July 24, 2009
Thanks for the backstory.
My answer is this: Trevor Ariza is no Jarrod Washburn.
Lanky - July 24, 2009
But on the other hand two whiter first names you'll never see
pdb - July 24, 2009
Agreed
dbroncos31 - July 24, 2009
Agents work for their clients though
if Ariza didn’t want his agent to do that he should have taken more control of the process. If the client says “stop” the agent stops.
pdb - July 24, 2009
Yeah but many athletes
seem to assume that the agent is doing the right thing for them.
I agree with you 100% that Trevor should have stepped in, but from what I’ve heard about the situation, he just let his agent do what his agent thought was best. And it cost him.
I do not think this will be an issue with Jarrod, although I wonder what would happen if we offered 2 for 10 and some NL team offered 3 for 25 or something like that.
dbroncos31 - July 24, 2009
Great summary
Might be worth mentioning the guy that LA signed instead is Ron “crazy pills” Artest, formerly of the Houston Rockets, master of the “dribble for 12 seconds, then throw up a prayer” offense. Ron ron isn’t going to set the world on fire, but most people agree he’s a better player than Ariza. Ron’s value goes way up if someone else is shooting the ball.
Ariza probably listened too much to what his agent told him was out there.
PDXTai - July 24, 2009
So this is still a baseball thread.
abender20 - July 24, 2009
On a baseball website.
abender20 - July 24, 2009
I love how Wash is talking up the clubhouse this year.
hcoguy - July 24, 2009
The Cardinals will probably take him for Rasmus
vivaelpujols - July 24, 2009
If they weren't willing to trade Halladay for Rasmus I highly doubt they'd trade him for two months of Washburn
Poochie - July 24, 2009
I think he's just bitter over the Holliday deal
calim - July 24, 2009
You are correct
vivaelpujols - July 24, 2009
No I'm just embarrassed that I couldn't come up with jokes as fresh as these
Poochie - July 24, 2009
Well you might be bitter too, I don't know
But I was talking about our feathered friend here
calim - July 24, 2009
Dolphin Dolphin Dolphin Dolphin Dolphin Dolphin
Dolphin Dolphin Dolphin Dolphin Dolphin Dolphin Dolphin Dolphin Dolphin Dolphin Dolphin Dolphin Dolphin
appleshampoo - July 24, 2009
Is there any way to tell if Washburn changed his game plan with Vlad and Longhands in the outfield?
InSpokane - July 24, 2009
I spent 10mins searching and came up empty.
Can someone point me to the definitions of StS, StF, StI & StC please?
I think it’s:
Strike swinging
Strike foul
Strike i don’t know
Strike called (or looking)
PDXTai - July 24, 2009
You're right on the three you guessed
The other is strikes in play — looks like StL, but is actually StI
calim - July 24, 2009
Thanks. I couldn't find this in any of the stat glossaries I checked.
PDXTai - July 24, 2009
StC=SubThread Closed.
Oh, wait…
PositivePaul - July 24, 2009
Acronyms.
They are bad.
Isten - July 24, 2009
Stl
St Louis.
Slow Country - July 24, 2009
"Jarrod's Flipper does appear to be a weapon."
That’s filthy. I love it.
section331 - July 24, 2009
I'm hoping that the continued use of the Flipper convinces Branyan to Free Willy
abender20 - July 24, 2009
That could result in mass hysteria
calim - July 24, 2009
Wrong.
It will merely anger the fans, for no Willie can ever replace WFB.
I Lick Squirrels - July 24, 2009
Not a Willie, Branyan's Willy
It’s a penis joke, probably circumcised.
Kermit. - July 24, 2009
I got that.
But WFB is everyone’s favorite penis.
I Lick Squirrels - July 24, 2009
Well I know who Kermit doesn't like now. Other than myself of course.
Sec 108 - July 24, 2009
Just thought you needed some competion for the Captain Obvious crown
Kermit. - July 24, 2009
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