and if you act now, right now, for absolutely free we can throw in 50 innings’ worth of HR repellent!
BUT WAIT THERE’S MORE
not only do you get the veteran starter with complimentary competitive fire and home run repellent, a 6million dollar retail value on its own, but this year’s Jarrod is a special, limited edition version that comes with… wait for it… a Flipper! yes ladies and gentlemen, this offer will not last so you need to call now, right now!
…
…
offervoidwhereprohibitedstrandedrunnersnotguaranteedhomerunrepellentmayonlyfunctioninlargeparksandwhenpairedwithdeath
toflyingthingsi.e.NOTcarlosbeltranwhosucksdonkeydicknoptnblpaymentonlybyhighupsideprospectormajorleaguerunerclubcontrol
Of the "this is going to hurt me more than it hurts you" kind, maybe.
You know, where your dad or mom told you how they were going to punish you for your own good, and you’d look back in a couple of years and appreciate it…
I bet you thought about it twice as you were writing that comment.
Seriously, though, Escobar is a much more valuable player compared to Morrow. I take that deal in a heartbeat. It’s basically Morrow for Escobar because Washburn does us no good being out of the playoff race.
If Melvin actually agrees to that, you say “yes” on reflex, get the paperwork to the MLB office on pure muscle memory, and don’t waste time to think until it’s done.
That would actually top the deal for Brignac (especially since it wouldn’t require us to take on Kazmir’s contract — I’d be willing to take the risk on him if we needed to, but he really looks broken to me.)
That said, I don’t see the Brewers actually making that move . . . I think Brignac’s still the best plausible target out there.
And apparently their manager gave some quote about being hopeful on the trade market, and Escobar was pulled (in a blowout, mind you), both of which are really what is fueling this, and both of which would be minor blips on the radar any time but right now.
Tom Haudricourt’s a good one. He doesn’t really seem to think Escobar’s a possibility, though.
Personally, unless Melvin actually does throw Escobar in the mix, I hope Zduriencik just keeps working the Rays and Indians to pull that deal together. I’d love to see Brignac in an M’s uniform.
He's in the "good reporter, bad analyst" camp where a lot of beat writers (understandably) reside.
His defense of his Ryan Howard-over-Albert Pujols MVP vote last year was a good example of what I think of him: Good of him to defend it, but holy fuck that’s indefensible.
I just . . . I’m one of the biggest MSM apologists you’ll find around here, and I also like to think I’m pretty averse to hyperbole and overreaction . . . but sometimes I think that a decision this stupid is grounds to lose your vote. Unbelievable.
I can see absolutely no way to justify him over Pujols. The others on the list above him were definitely not better than Pujols but Delgado doesn’t even get the Aramis Ramirez positional bump (even if his defense was about average).
The scouting report I’d heard was that Escobar was slightly less of a defender than Andrus and also slightly less of a hitter. If he has offensive upside, then yeah he’s a monster.
You’re looking at a phantom upside. He’s good with the glove his base stealing skills are above average but other than that he just shows that good SS are just not plentiful anymore.
Escobar has well above contact skills, good wheels, improving pitch selection, and gap power. If Escobar “can’t hit”, neither can 95% of all shortstops on the planet.
Go look up how good of hitters most major league shortstops were in the minors. Even Hanley Ramirez’s career minor league numbers were .297/.352/.430. Kids who can play SS don’t hit when they’re 18-22.
Never said he couldn't hit I just said he's not that much of a hitter.
Could’ve used a better choice of words though I believe in his defense but I don’t quite believe in his bat but as a 22 year old I think my argument is pointless and a good defensive SS who can hit as an average-above average SS with upside is valuable.
not to mention they can’t afford Washburn unless they drop Hardy. I mean, I really hope I’m wrong on this but even Washburn plus Morrow for Escobar seems optimistic
What's the odd that Jarrod Washburn will make his regular start on July 28 against the Jays?
At this point, there is no point of sending him out there. He could only hurt his value. There is nothing that can enhance his value now. I don’t want to see him out there on July 28.
I have a question. Why have we given up on the season?
It seems to me that there are quite a few games left and several to play against the Texax Rangers and (wherever they’re from) Angels. Is it impossible for us to win the Western Division? What do the the player’s play for if it is all over before the 1st of August? I know they have personal records to go for, Ichicro still needs to get 200 hits, and any HR Branyon adds or Franklin adds is just a plus, but there seems little point in those things as the team doesn’t go anywhere. Is it really over? What about that expression “that’s why they play the games”? Isn’t is possible that both the Rangers and Angels could go on a streak where they lose a bunch of games and we win a bunch of games? Is it possible that we could still win the Western Division? I don’t care what the odds are, isn’t that all the current players have?
7.5 games out puts the playoff odds at well under 10% (I think PECOTA has us under 3%).
As Jeff pointed out a few days ago, that’s the same level of hopelessness teams like the Reds and Mets are looking at.
While not impossible, it’s a pretty big hurdle to clear. The players will play for future contracts and bigger arbitration rewards. It’s not in their best interests to play lesser baseball just because they’re out of it.
but very unlikely. And at this point, it’s better to improve your odds for 2010 and beyond than improve your odds for 2009. Say, hypothetically, our odds to make the playoffs are ~4%. Trading Washburn takes us down to maybe 2% or 3%. But what we could get greatly improves our playoff odds for next year.
It’s about building a team that can compete for many years. As for the players…well, about half the players in baseball play for a team with no shot in hell. They manage to cope.
Besides, Zduriencik isn’t looking to trade for A-ball players, he’s looking for major leaguers or kids who are major-league ready. Whoever he gets will help us now, not just three years from now.
I'm going to start over, because I've gotten bumped off a few times.
I don’t care if you are a starter. Ichiro will get his hits, as will everyone else who has been on the team for a while. Let’s talk about those who haven’t. The M’s have “officially” give up. It’s July 26th. This is ridicioulous to me, but whatever. I’m sorry, I can’t make this work for me.
The organization realizes that the odds of this team making the playoffs are virtually nil, and they can get valuable pieces for the future in exchange for things they don't need.
I don’t see why this is so difficult for you to handle.
And really, the odds of anything the org does making the team much worse this year are pretty slim.
I doubt Branyan or Aardsma get moved and Washburn isn’t a huge loss, especially if he helps net us a shortstop. There’s a chance the team post deadline is better than the current one. The only difference is that now the FO has an excuse to move Washburn.
BUT, I thought there were talks that we can sell and help our future without hurting this year’s chances. NOW, is the decision to just trade everyone except( Gutierrez,Ichiro, and Felix)?
You know what I mean though? I completely understand that it is way better to build for the future, but another part of me says that we shouldn’t give up on the season because there are two months or so left in the season. Man, it’s hard being a Mariners fan sometimes.
We’ll all still be rooting for the team to win and for the Angels to lose, but right now the odds of that happening are small the team would be best served to turn players like Washburn into pieces that could help us in the future. You don’t have to give up on the season, hey the odds of us making the playoffs aren’t 0%, but just understand that the odds are small and the team does have a few pieces to sell.
If you are a professional ballplayer, of course you don’t give up today. And if you’re a fan, you don’t stop cheering. But if you are charged with turning around a moribund franchise, you absolutely have to recognize when the gamble becomes too much of a risk. This team has a tiny, TINY chance of winning enough games to make the playoffs. You can’t pass up an opportunity to greatly improve the 2010 team to chase that 5% chance.
Plus Washburn is still mediocre. As AC mentions, it’s not like a trade is going to make us much worse this year anyway.
1) There is a thing called a “trade deadline.” Either we trade by then or we get nothing. Period. There is no in between. That trade deadline is in 4 days. So to not trade our players you have to believe that a) We have a good enough chance of making the playoffs in order to purposefully not get any help at all for future seasons, and b) The players we trade away are so vital for our survival as a team that we cannot live without them and will become the new Nationals.
If you can honestly say both of those, then you’re just wrong.
2) “Punting the season” means trading some players for a chance at 2010 and 2011, because 2009 seems unlikely. It does not mean “start losing on purpose.” If you think we can beat the Angels now with our team as currently constructed, then you should also have no problem believing that we still have a chance even if we have to lose a couple of players. If you believe we have a 10% chance now and that’s worth going for, then is a 5% chance not okay if it improves our chances next year? Trading Washburn, Bedard – even if we wanted to trade Gutz and Branyan. These will reduce our odds, but not by any degree that matters if you still believe 10% matters. And if trading anyone ups our chances in 2010 by more than the drop we get losing them in 2009, then you should have no problem with it.
This is the non-waiver trade deadline; you can still trade players in August if you can pass them through waivers. Washburn, at least, would probably get through waivers. Still, he’s going to have more value now than in August, so if he’s on our roster August 1, I’ll be annoyed.
I'm aware of the waiver trades, but banking on them is poor decision making and in general I think they should be ignored when we are discussing getting anything back of value.
While it is indeed possible, the chances of getting anyone back via waiver that will truly help us in 2010 seems so slim as to be almost irrelevant.
just noting that in saying, “Either we trade by then or we get nothing. Period. There is no in between,” you actually weren’t quite telling the whole story.
You don't think most teams in a playoff race can absorb an extra three million or so for a stater?
the money is going to be a deterrent when it comes to players like Halladay because he makes big bucks and is under contract for next season as well. Last year, Washburn made it through waivers because he had been having a meh season (for him) that didn’t look that good on the surface and had another year to go. Washburn will not clear waivers this year.
Seriously, do you think that the 2.5-3 million or so Washburn willl be owed would stop the Dodgers, SF, St Louis, Yankees, CO, Angels, Detroit, Minnesota, Red Sox, Phillies etc? ALL of them? it only takes one you know.
The Yankees asked the Pirates to throw in money with Hinske
so yes, I think the chance of having to pay all of it would be a deterrent. If a team did claim him, I’m pretty confident it would be because they wanted him, but that they’d be motivated to make a deal because they’d want us to cover his salary (or at least a good chunk of it).
This isn't a general retreat, I like to think of it as an organized withdrawal.
Faced with overwhelming odds and superior forces, Zduriencik is keeping the enemy engaged on the field of battle while re-ordering the main body of his command, until such time he achieves the tactical advantage. In combat, some associate tactics with science, and maneuver with art. In their current form the Mariners are hardly Patton’s Third Army rolling up the belly of the Rhine, able to strike hammer blows and having the resources to follow through for decisive victory. They are more Rommel’s Afrika Corps, able to achieve victory in battle but lack the ability to hold ground due to being overextended and under equipped.
This weekend drove us back, but it did not wipe us out; it knocked us out of the playoff race, but it’s not like we’re now likely to finish up with another 100-loss season.
My wife and I took the train from Portland to LA a couple years ago. Was supposed to take 26 hours, took almost 40. Same on the way back. But the sleeper car is pretty cool, you can get all your meals in there if you don’t want to eat in the dining car or whatever. And they have wine tasting at 5pm every day.
milt wrote…
it’s no coincidence the m’s are losing (looking like 2 in a row) and Junior is not playing. He is such a presence, electrifies the crowd and then electrifies the team. Baseball is such a mental game and Junior helps the team relax, enjoy the game and not tightened up because they are in the race. Too bad. there you are Junior haters.
July 25, 2009 3:18 pm
Yes Milt, it is a coincidence. Junior had no effect on the pitching in either of the two games. Ryan Rowland-Smith pitched well, but no well enough to win yesterday. Bedard was not effective today. Neither had anything to do with the DH.
We have a Jarrod Washburn for sale anybody do I hear a Jason Donald for Washburn? A Phil Hughes anybody anybody?
Slurvey - July 26, 2009
We're gonna trade Wash!
Optimism
SethGrandpa - July 26, 2009
Z looks very anxious to sell Washburn
I approve.
Really does suck that Beltre and Bedard aren’t even remotely healthy. There could have been a whole lot more action at this deadline.
Fuckmikereilly - July 26, 2009
HI THERE, I'M BILLY MAYS
waldo rojas - July 26, 2009
Hey it's Vince with Washburn!
Slurvey - July 26, 2009
Watch this, you're gonna love his ERA....watch this, you're gonna love his ERA.
MFAN - July 26, 2009
And his nuts
gregrabble - July 26, 2009
It's too bad he didn't market overhead compartment latches while he was alive.
HARRYP09 - July 26, 2009
He died of heart disease.
Mariner John - July 26, 2009
Nobody is going to want just his head.
You need to toss in an arm or two as well.
msb - July 26, 2009
Competitive fire included!
and if you act now, right now, for absolutely free we can throw in 50 innings’ worth of HR repellent!
BUT WAIT THERE’S MORE
not only do you get the veteran starter with complimentary competitive fire and home run repellent, a 6million dollar retail value on its own, but this year’s Jarrod is a special, limited edition version that comes with… wait for it… a Flipper! yes ladies and gentlemen, this offer will not last so you need to call now, right now!
…
…
offervoidwhereprohibitedstrandedrunnersnotguaranteedhomerunrepellentmayonlyfunctioninlargeparksandwhenpairedwithdeath
toflyingthingsi.e.NOTcarlosbeltranwhosucksdonkeydicknoptnblpaymentonlybyhighupsideprospectormajorleaguerunerclubcontrol
Bearskin Rugburn - July 26, 2009
We could take him to Antiques Roadshow.
two_hands - July 26, 2009
Especially in the NL
tait644 - July 26, 2009
Well that series was a thorough asskicking.
Goose - July 26, 2009
I'm in tears right now.
LauraBu - July 26, 2009
It's probably not the worst thing in the world
that we have a definitive answer on whether to sell or buy. I’m personally excited to watch Saunders get some real PT.
tait644 - July 26, 2009
And it felt like Cleveland did us a favor.
ThundaPC - July 26, 2009
There's something to be said for certainty.
The Ancient Mariner - July 26, 2009
Reasons why I like Cleveland:
1. Franklin Gutierrez
2. Solidifying our status as sellers this year
3. The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame?
bamfor - July 26, 2009
4. Drew Carey owns the Sounders.
Wilder. - July 26, 2009
5. You guys don't by any chance like beer, do you?
nickjs21 - July 26, 2009
Love it.
Fin - July 26, 2009
Of the "this is going to hurt me more than it hurts you" kind, maybe.
You know, where your dad or mom told you how they were going to punish you for your own good, and you’d look back in a couple of years and appreciate it…
LauraBu - July 27, 2009
Do the Mariners have a Disco Stu jacket?
Robert - July 26, 2009
Disco Stu doesn't advertise.
Jack Moore - July 26, 2009
Oh, oh, oh, oh, table five, table five
Table fiiiiiiiiii-iiiiiiiiiiiiii-iiiiiiiiiiiii-iiiiiiiive
patsfan - July 26, 2009
In his SBN photo,
Vargas looks like he really doesn’t give half a shit bout nuthin and nobody
Bearskin Rugburn - July 26, 2009
It's called F-bounded polymorphism.
brian_sun - July 26, 2009
Sweeney coming out and saying they're selling; I think... I was half paying attention.
w00tah - July 26, 2009
So it's Sweeney's choice? I knew he was more than just a dependable slugger.
kevin_ess - July 26, 2009
Sexson looks particularly depressed today.
Paytheline - July 26, 2009
Did you see him?
Working at a Gas Station on the I-90 corridor?
Fin - July 26, 2009
Did he kill his 80 million already?
blackvanilla - July 26, 2009
He's thinking. Shhhh
Kermit. - July 26, 2009
In times like these I prefer to think that he's saluting Z and Wak for turning this team around
bamfor - July 26, 2009
Baker's blog
Some interesting things
But Escobar? I thought he was untouchable? I don’t see that happening, but a Washburn to Brewers deal could be in the works.
Fuckmikereilly - July 26, 2009
It's Morrow + Washburn for Escobar. I don't know if I would do that. I still like Morrow and think he still got some upside.
brian_sun - July 26, 2009
Well, it's Morrow+Wasburn for Escobar+something
Either way, Escobar is awesome. I don’t see them giving up a top prospect in a deal where a top-tier pitcher isn’t involved.
Fuckmikereilly - July 26, 2009
I'd make that trade without thinking twice.
Teej - July 26, 2009
Agreed
Wash has absolutely no value to us, so it’s essentially Morrow for Escobar. Uhh…
Fuckmikereilly - July 26, 2009
I bet you thought about it twice as you were writing that comment.
Seriously, though, Escobar is a much more valuable player compared to Morrow. I take that deal in a heartbeat. It’s basically Morrow for Escobar because Washburn does us no good being out of the playoff race.
Wilder. - July 26, 2009
I'd make it without thinking *once*.
If Melvin actually agrees to that, you say “yes” on reflex, get the paperwork to the MLB office on pure muscle memory, and don’t waste time to think until it’s done.
That would actually top the deal for Brignac (especially since it wouldn’t require us to take on Kazmir’s contract — I’d be willing to take the risk on him if we needed to, but he really looks broken to me.)
That said, I don’t see the Brewers actually making that move . . . I think Brignac’s still the best plausible target out there.
The Ancient Mariner - July 26, 2009
Yeah. Escobar isn't happening.
I kind of question Baker for even bringing this up.
Fuckmikereilly - July 26, 2009
Maybe he thinks
the Brewers’ FO has been taken over by pod people from St. Louis?
The Ancient Mariner - July 26, 2009
Although, a Brewers writer just wrote essentially the same thing
Link
And apparently their manager gave some quote about being hopeful on the trade market, and Escobar was pulled (in a blowout, mind you), both of which are really what is fueling this, and both of which would be minor blips on the radar any time but right now.
Fuckmikereilly - July 26, 2009
Not just *a* writer
Tom Haudricourt’s a good one. He doesn’t really seem to think Escobar’s a possibility, though.
Personally, unless Melvin actually does throw Escobar in the mix, I hope Zduriencik just keeps working the Rays and Indians to pull that deal together. I’d love to see Brignac in an M’s uniform.
The Ancient Mariner - July 26, 2009
Haudricourt has his ear pretty close to the ground
Or whatever metaphor you want to use. He was always pretty reliable and early when Cleveland and Milwaukee were talking last year.
nickjs21 - July 26, 2009
Not a huge fan of Haudricort.
He gets the best scoops in Milwaukee, but he does like to posture and I wouldn’t take Haudricort writing about a rumor to mean it’s going to happen.
Jack Moore - July 26, 2009
He's in the "good reporter, bad analyst" camp where a lot of beat writers (understandably) reside.
His defense of his Ryan Howard-over-Albert Pujols MVP vote last year was a good example of what I think of him: Good of him to defend it, but holy fuck that’s indefensible.
Teej - July 26, 2009
He wrote that?
I thought it was some mid-level ESPN writer trying to make a name for themselves
bamfor - July 26, 2009
He voted Pujols SEVENTH on his ballot. SEVENTH.
I just . . . I’m one of the biggest MSM apologists you’ll find around here, and I also like to think I’m pretty averse to hyperbole and overreaction . . . but sometimes I think that a decision this stupid is grounds to lose your vote. Unbelievable.
His ballot
Teej - July 26, 2009
In what way is Delgado even a defensible vote?
I can see absolutely no way to justify him over Pujols. The others on the list above him were definitely not better than Pujols but Delgado doesn’t even get the Aramis Ramirez positional bump (even if his defense was about average).
Fuckmikereilly - July 26, 2009
Well, Pujols didn't will his team into the playoffs like the half-seasons turned in by Ramirez and Sabathia
Also, games in September count more than games in April and May.
This is why judging players on things like MVPs and Cy Youngs is silly.
Gihyou - July 26, 2009
Which kills me, because Howard was one of the main reasons the Phillies had such a big hole to dig out of in the first place.
Dude was an anchor for two or three months. Apparently that wasn’t when it mattered.
Teej - July 27, 2009
Key to success: stink in the first half of the season, do well in second half, team makes playoffs
MVP
Gihyou - July 27, 2009
Carlos Delgado's Mets did not make the playoffs.
He had a good second half, but I repeat: what the fuck?
Fuckmikereilly - July 27, 2009
If you want to see "bad reporter, bad analyst," we have Anthony Witrado too.
At BrewCrewBall, he’s affectionately known as Ritardo
Jack Moore - July 26, 2009
It won't happen unless it's like Morrow, Washburn, Balentien, Clement, Aumont, and Triunfel.
lailaihei - July 26, 2009
I don't think Triunfel can be dealt
since he’s DLed.
The Ancient Mariner - July 26, 2009
You can trade players who are on the DL, can't you?
I believe Yuni was on the DL when he was traded.
Teej - July 26, 2009
Triunfel's on the 60-day
and Yuni was on a rehab assignment. I think once they’re playing, you can deal them, but not until then.
The Ancient Mariner - July 26, 2009
Huh. Didn't know that.
I thought MLB The Show was just being a dick.
Teej - July 26, 2009
You just make them PTNBLs
Jack Moore - July 26, 2009
I'd fucking throw in Michael Saunders as well without batting an eyelash.
Decatur - July 26, 2009
Well, actually I'd probably think twice, but still.
Escobar is the best MLB-ready SS prospect in the game.
Decatur - July 26, 2009
That price is a little steep for a shortstop who can't hit.
abender20 - July 26, 2009
I imagine he can hit well enough to be a great asset, considering his glove.
I don’t know if Andrus is a fair comp, but you can be that magical with the glove, I’ll put up with a .310 OBP.
Though yes, throwing Saunders in might be a bit much.
Teej - July 26, 2009
Good thing that's not Escobar then
He’s a slightly slower Rafael Furcal.
davidcameron - July 26, 2009
22 year old Frucal?
Poochie - July 26, 2009
Then I'll have to defer to your knowledge.
The scouting report I’d heard was that Escobar was slightly less of a defender than Andrus and also slightly less of a hitter. If he has offensive upside, then yeah he’s a monster.
abender20 - July 26, 2009
He can defend but he's not that much of a hitter.
You’re looking at a phantom upside. He’s good with the glove his base stealing skills are above average but other than that he just shows that good SS are just not plentiful anymore.
Slurvey - July 26, 2009
Where is this crap coming from?
Escobar has well above contact skills, good wheels, improving pitch selection, and gap power. If Escobar “can’t hit”, neither can 95% of all shortstops on the planet.
davidcameron - July 26, 2009
He's also a 22 year old at AAA.
He’s hardly peaked, and he can already hit a fair bit for a shortstop.
Fuckmikereilly - July 26, 2009
Seriously
Go look up how good of hitters most major league shortstops were in the minors. Even Hanley Ramirez’s career minor league numbers were .297/.352/.430. Kids who can play SS don’t hit when they’re 18-22.
davidcameron - July 26, 2009
Never said he couldn't hit I just said he's not that much of a hitter.
Could’ve used a better choice of words though I believe in his defense but I don’t quite believe in his bat but as a 22 year old I think my argument is pointless and a good defensive SS who can hit as an average-above average SS with upside is valuable.
Slurvey - July 26, 2009
, and .
Milendriel - July 26, 2009
Yeah I forgot about those.
Slurvey - July 26, 2009
Seriously, I'd love that trade
I DO NOT WANT Hardy. I’d rather take a gamble on someone else than ANOTHER shortstop that can’t hit. Luckily we have a smart GM.
OceanBird - July 26, 2009
That smart GM drafted JJ Hardy
davidcameron - July 26, 2009
And Nick Franklin, whose skillset and ceiling look alot like JJ Hardy's did at 18.
Decatur - July 26, 2009
And he was good
I’m sure he can rebound, but uh, yeah I don’t want to take the chance.
OceanBird - July 26, 2009
Gutierrez, Aardsma, Branyan, Vargas
Taking risks on talented guys with performance slumps never works…
davidcameron - July 26, 2009
Does Aardsma have any value?
I’m surprised his name hasn’t come up yet. I certainly wouldn’t mind resigning him, but his value will probably never be higher.
Fuckmikereilly - July 26, 2009
He's under team control for 3+ years
Even as a first year arb eligible guy, he won’t make more than a few million bucks. Keep him.
davidcameron - July 26, 2009
Oh wow. I didn't realize he had that little service time.
Teej - July 26, 2009
You'd think a guy who's been traded so many times would have a lot more service time.
Slurvey - July 26, 2009
This is the 7th or 8th time I've forgotten this.
Thank you.
Fuckmikereilly - July 26, 2009
Agreed, unless you are overwhelmed
Poochie - July 26, 2009
I don't know if I'd want to take the chance if it meant giving up Morrow
simply because of the issue of years under team control. But Hardy is really, really good if he regains 2007/2008 form.
Fuckmikereilly - July 26, 2009
No no no
Morrow is supposed to be in a Cleveland uniform. Shit.
nickjs21 - July 26, 2009
If Morrow is in a Cleveland uniform, Carlos Santana is in a Mariners uniform.
Wilder. - July 26, 2009
Blasphemer
In my fantasy it’s TB giving you anything of worth.
nickjs21 - July 26, 2009
False.
abender20 - July 26, 2009
I am sure Morrow would rather punch himself in the face than go to Cleveland.
Fin - July 26, 2009
This quote, and its many variations, has never once failed to make me laugh.
Fuckmikereilly - July 26, 2009
On a side note
Baker in that piece cracks off the stupidest line I’ve seen in a long time:
“But at this time of year, two plus two doesn’t always add up to eight. Sometimes, it equals four.”
The Ancient Mariner - July 26, 2009
That certainly is hyperbole
Kermit. - July 26, 2009
I'm not sure what the heck it is
since it seems to imply that at other times of the year, two plus two does always add up to eight . . .
The Ancient Mariner - July 26, 2009
"A MOMENTOUS BLAST"- NIEHAUS
Kermit. - July 26, 2009
What the hell? Stupid drop down menu, I think.
Kermit. - July 26, 2009
Yeah I don't think the Brewers are that dumb.
not to mention they can’t afford Washburn unless they drop Hardy. I mean, I really hope I’m wrong on this but even Washburn plus Morrow for Escobar seems optimistic
Bearskin Rugburn - July 26, 2009
What's the odd that Jarrod Washburn will make his regular start on July 28 against the Jays?
At this point, there is no point of sending him out there. He could only hurt his value. There is nothing that can enhance his value now. I don’t want to see him out there on July 28.
brian_sun - July 26, 2009
He could pitch a no-hitter
Snowman1025 - July 26, 2009
Yeah, and aliens could land during the seventh-inning stretch and abduct him, too
but I’m not banking on either of them.
The Ancient Mariner - July 26, 2009
I wonder what kind of compensation we would get if he was abducted by aliens
Fuckmikereilly - July 26, 2009
Type β
CapSea - July 26, 2009
Because skipping his start would not raise flags with other GMs at all...
Matthew - July 26, 2009
I chose to watch the better game of the two!
Poochie - July 26, 2009
I have a question. Why have we given up on the season?
It seems to me that there are quite a few games left and several to play against the Texax Rangers and (wherever they’re from) Angels. Is it impossible for us to win the Western Division? What do the the player’s play for if it is all over before the 1st of August? I know they have personal records to go for, Ichicro still needs to get 200 hits, and any HR Branyon adds or Franklin adds is just a plus, but there seems little point in those things as the team doesn’t go anywhere. Is it really over? What about that expression “that’s why they play the games”? Isn’t is possible that both the Rangers and Angels could go on a streak where they lose a bunch of games and we win a bunch of games? Is it possible that we could still win the Western Division? I don’t care what the odds are, isn’t that all the current players have?
Mrs. Robinson - July 26, 2009
7.5 games out puts the playoff odds at well under 10% (I think PECOTA has us under 3%).
As Jeff pointed out a few days ago, that’s the same level of hopelessness teams like the Reds and Mets are looking at.
While not impossible, it’s a pretty big hurdle to clear. The players will play for future contracts and bigger arbitration rewards. It’s not in their best interests to play lesser baseball just because they’re out of it.
BrianL - July 26, 2009
It's possible
but very unlikely. And at this point, it’s better to improve your odds for 2010 and beyond than improve your odds for 2009. Say, hypothetically, our odds to make the playoffs are ~4%. Trading Washburn takes us down to maybe 2% or 3%. But what we could get greatly improves our playoff odds for next year.
It’s about building a team that can compete for many years. As for the players…well, about half the players in baseball play for a team with no shot in hell. They manage to cope.
Fuckmikereilly - July 26, 2009
Being paid 7 figures probably helps.
And, oh yeah, it’s a game! If Niehaus can say that he’s never worked a day in his life, so can everyone on the field.
ralphie81 - July 26, 2009
Here's to you, Mrs. Robinson
but good grief, is that a forlorn hope.
Besides, Zduriencik isn’t looking to trade for A-ball players, he’s looking for major leaguers or kids who are major-league ready. Whoever he gets will help us now, not just three years from now.
The Ancient Mariner - July 27, 2009
We have no chance of winning. In image form, here is our season:
Graham MacAree - July 27, 2009
Warm and crispy and the perfect place for jelly to lay?
abender20 - July 27, 2009
Now I just think of Russell Branyan
Graham MacAree - July 27, 2009
I'm going to start over, because I've gotten bumped off a few times.
I don’t care if you are a starter. Ichiro will get his hits, as will everyone else who has been on the team for a while. Let’s talk about those who haven’t. The M’s have “officially” give up. It’s July 26th. This is ridicioulous to me, but whatever. I’m sorry, I can’t make this work for me.
Mrs. Robinson - July 26, 2009
The organization realizes that the odds of this team making the playoffs are virtually nil, and they can get valuable pieces for the future in exchange for things they don't need.
I don’t see why this is so difficult for you to handle.
Aaron Campeau - July 26, 2009
Would you have given up on July 26th last year?
Because honestly, even if this team is way better, our odds aren’t appreciably better.
Fuckmikereilly - July 26, 2009
And really, the odds of anything the org does making the team much worse this year are pretty slim.
I doubt Branyan or Aardsma get moved and Washburn isn’t a huge loss, especially if he helps net us a shortstop. There’s a chance the team post deadline is better than the current one. The only difference is that now the FO has an excuse to move Washburn.
Aaron Campeau - July 26, 2009
Also, Clement apparently has no future with the organization, so anything he nets in a deal is a "free" upgrade to the big league squad.
abender20 - July 27, 2009
I understand the amount of games we are back.
BUT, I thought there were talks that we can sell and help our future without hurting this year’s chances. NOW, is the decision to just trade everyone except( Gutierrez,Ichiro, and Felix)?
M'sin.. - July 27, 2009
This isn't the Marlins.
abender20 - July 27, 2009
Absolutely not. The plan is to trade things that aren't going to mean much to us this year.
We have a tiny chance of making the playoffs. Whether or not we have Washburn doesn’t really affect that very much, so trade him.
Teej - July 27, 2009
Or, in other words, Washburn might raise our playoff odds from 5% to 8%.
Either way, we need to understand what kind of long shot we’re dealing with, and act accordingly.
Teej - July 27, 2009
It's hard to let go.
M'sin.. - July 27, 2009
Getting something nice for Washburn will make it easier for us
gregrabble - July 27, 2009
Yeah, that's true.
You know what I mean though? I completely understand that it is way better to build for the future, but another part of me says that we shouldn’t give up on the season because there are two months or so left in the season. Man, it’s hard being a Mariners fan sometimes.
M'sin.. - July 27, 2009
Repeat after me:
Trading Washburn isn’t giving up on the season.
Matthew - July 27, 2009
Trading Washburn isn't giving up on the season.
Fin - July 27, 2009
You don't have too.
We’ll all still be rooting for the team to win and for the Angels to lose, but right now the odds of that happening are small the team would be best served to turn players like Washburn into pieces that could help us in the future. You don’t have to give up on the season, hey the odds of us making the playoffs aren’t 0%, but just understand that the odds are small and the team does have a few pieces to sell.
MFAN - July 27, 2009
Probability. Reality.
If you are a professional ballplayer, of course you don’t give up today. And if you’re a fan, you don’t stop cheering. But if you are charged with turning around a moribund franchise, you absolutely have to recognize when the gamble becomes too much of a risk. This team has a tiny, TINY chance of winning enough games to make the playoffs. You can’t pass up an opportunity to greatly improve the 2010 team to chase that 5% chance.
Plus Washburn is still mediocre. As AC mentions, it’s not like a trade is going to make us much worse this year anyway.
Teej - July 27, 2009
The best explanation yet.
Decatur - July 27, 2009
Okay....
I’ll bite:
1) There is a thing called a “trade deadline.” Either we trade by then or we get nothing. Period. There is no in between. That trade deadline is in 4 days. So to not trade our players you have to believe that a) We have a good enough chance of making the playoffs in order to purposefully not get any help at all for future seasons, and b) The players we trade away are so vital for our survival as a team that we cannot live without them and will become the new Nationals.
If you can honestly say both of those, then you’re just wrong.
2) “Punting the season” means trading some players for a chance at 2010 and 2011, because 2009 seems unlikely. It does not mean “start losing on purpose.” If you think we can beat the Angels now with our team as currently constructed, then you should also have no problem believing that we still have a chance even if we have to lose a couple of players. If you believe we have a 10% chance now and that’s worth going for, then is a 5% chance not okay if it improves our chances next year? Trading Washburn, Bedard – even if we wanted to trade Gutz and Branyan. These will reduce our odds, but not by any degree that matters if you still believe 10% matters. And if trading anyone ups our chances in 2010 by more than the drop we get losing them in 2009, then you should have no problem with it.
CapSea - July 27, 2009
Not quite
This is the non-waiver trade deadline; you can still trade players in August if you can pass them through waivers. Washburn, at least, would probably get through waivers. Still, he’s going to have more value now than in August, so if he’s on our roster August 1, I’ll be annoyed.
The Ancient Mariner - July 27, 2009
I'm aware of the waiver trades, but banking on them is poor decision making and in general I think they should be ignored when we are discussing getting anything back of value.
While it is indeed possible, the chances of getting anyone back via waiver that will truly help us in 2010 seems so slim as to be almost irrelevant.
CapSea - July 27, 2009
As I said, I mostly wasn't disagreeing with you
just noting that in saying, “Either we trade by then or we get nothing. Period. There is no in between,” you actually weren’t quite telling the whole story.
The Ancient Mariner - July 27, 2009
I don't think Washburn has any chance to get through waivers
he has the fourth best ERA in the league and would only be under contract for two more months. Someone will claim him.
seattlebruin - July 27, 2009
He's still owed a fair bit of $$$ in those two months
but if someone did claim him, we could still work out a deal.
The Ancient Mariner - July 27, 2009
Not really - it's like $3.5M
that’s nothing to pay for a guy who has dominated the league by traditional metrics
seattlebruin - July 27, 2009
The figure will only decrease as the season goes on.
Bearskin Rugburn - July 27, 2009
You don't think most teams in a playoff race can absorb an extra three million or so for a stater?
the money is going to be a deterrent when it comes to players like Halladay because he makes big bucks and is under contract for next season as well. Last year, Washburn made it through waivers because he had been having a meh season (for him) that didn’t look that good on the surface and had another year to go. Washburn will not clear waivers this year.
Seriously, do you think that the 2.5-3 million or so Washburn willl be owed would stop the Dodgers, SF, St Louis, Yankees, CO, Angels, Detroit, Minnesota, Red Sox, Phillies etc? ALL of them? it only takes one you know.
Bearskin Rugburn - July 27, 2009
The Yankees asked the Pirates to throw in money with Hinske
so yes, I think the chance of having to pay all of it would be a deterrent. If a team did claim him, I’m pretty confident it would be because they wanted him, but that they’d be motivated to make a deal because they’d want us to cover his salary (or at least a good chunk of it).
The Ancient Mariner - July 27, 2009
I can't understand this comment so I guess we're even.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 27, 2009
Yeah if you figure it out please explain it to me.
Eyebrows - July 27, 2009
What, you've never gotten drunk before?
abender20 - July 27, 2009
In an odd bit of symmetry I can't get this comment to work for me so I guess we're square
pdb - July 27, 2009
Something about a quadrahedron.
abender20 - July 27, 2009
You crazy science types and your latin based hyperbole
Kermit. - July 27, 2009
This isn't a general retreat, I like to think of it as an organized withdrawal.
Faced with overwhelming odds and superior forces, Zduriencik is keeping the enemy engaged on the field of battle while re-ordering the main body of his command, until such time he achieves the tactical advantage. In combat, some associate tactics with science, and maneuver with art. In their current form the Mariners are hardly Patton’s Third Army rolling up the belly of the Rhine, able to strike hammer blows and having the resources to follow through for decisive victory. They are more Rommel’s Afrika Corps, able to achieve victory in battle but lack the ability to hold ground due to being overextended and under equipped.
Kermit. - July 27, 2009
This weekend was our El Alamein
waldo rojas - July 27, 2009
More like our Chosin Reservoir, imho
and we’re advancing to the rear in an orderly fashion; I have every confidence that we’ll be able to stabilize the line north of Inchon.
The Ancient Mariner - July 27, 2009
Amphibious landings for the win!
Kermit. - July 27, 2009
Battle of Little Big Horn, and we were not the Indians
LauraBu - July 27, 2009
It just wasn't that bad
This weekend drove us back, but it did not wipe us out; it knocked us out of the playoff race, but it’s not like we’re now likely to finish up with another 100-loss season.
The Ancient Mariner - July 27, 2009
Not meeting you is by far my greatest regret about not attending LL/USSM
seattlebruin - July 27, 2009
No reason to worry,
just pick one of these up.
Sec 108 - July 27, 2009
Rec'd for muppets and Kermit slander
tootthekazoo - July 27, 2009
Guess he didn't hear about the recall, something about choking on small parts
Too bad, Sec 108 seemed like a decent sort of fellow
dpseadv - July 27, 2009
I can't blame you, man. Kermit is an outstanding human.
royalcurve - July 27, 2009
What I've always wanted to do is take a train down the Pacific coast, and catch some games along the way.
Short stadium/scenic tour by train. I should somehow make this happen, whether or not Amtrak schedules and routes make it feasible is unknown.
Kermit. - July 27, 2009
It would be slow, but if you got a sleeper car it might be fun.
Sec 108 - July 27, 2009
It's a blast if you have the time
My wife and I took the train from Portland to LA a couple years ago. Was supposed to take 26 hours, took almost 40. Same on the way back. But the sleeper car is pretty cool, you can get all your meals in there if you don’t want to eat in the dining car or whatever. And they have wine tasting at 5pm every day.
pdb - July 27, 2009
Salk is my hero.
Finally, I wanted to respond to a comment below.
milt wrote…
it’s no coincidence the m’s are losing (looking like 2 in a row) and Junior is not playing. He is such a presence, electrifies the crowd and then electrifies the team. Baseball is such a mental game and Junior helps the team relax, enjoy the game and not tightened up because they are in the race. Too bad. there you are Junior haters.
July 25, 2009 3:18 pm
Yes Milt, it is a coincidence. Junior had no effect on the pitching in either of the two games. Ryan Rowland-Smith pitched well, but no well enough to win yesterday. Bedard was not effective today. Neither had anything to do with the DH.
msb - July 27, 2009
And meanwhile, Puckett & Sandmeyer are on-air.
msb - July 27, 2009
Caller: "why do they let a 5-tool player like Balentien go, and keep a slap judy hitter [sic] from the Nationals farm club in Langerhans?"
msb - July 27, 2009
I love how "five-tool player" has come to mean "strong outfielder."
Teej - July 27, 2009
Wouldn't Langerhans have more tools anyway?
speed, field, throw
v.
power, throw
Poochie - July 27, 2009
Oh, right, be logical.
msb - July 27, 2009
You're overlooking the fact that he played for the Nationals
and therefore can’t possibly any good.
Eyeball Kid - July 27, 2009
Actually, Langerhans has power, too
Maybe not as much raw power as Wlad, but he can still put a real charge in the ball; and if anything, it shows up in the actual games more often.
The Ancient Mariner - July 27, 2009
Um, I think you're confused about what the five tools are
for those people here who don’t actually ever watch baseball, they’re
Hit for Power
Hit for Power
Hit for Power
Hit for Power
Hit for Power
I think that makes Wladimir Balentien a clear five-tool player
seattlebruin - July 27, 2009
Doesn't hitting for power require actually hitting the ball far?
abender20 - July 27, 2009
It's a tool, it doesn't mean he's good at it yet
seattlebruin - July 27, 2009
Right
“tool” is one thing — “skill” is quite another.
The Ancient Mariner - July 27, 2009
I admire anyone that can listen to these phone-in shows and not lose their mind.
Eyeball Kid - July 27, 2009
At this point Wlad is just one huge tool.
Sec 108 - July 27, 2009
Yay! It's 11:00!!
msb - July 27, 2009
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