SB Nation - Login for mobile commenting

Lookout Landing

7/29: Open Game Thread, Part 2

Hee.

0 recs  |  451 comments

Comments

Mariners: Complete Game Streak Breakers
Ian Snell looks like a prison rapist
And he looks like he's in jail for giving a snitch a new smile.
Describe your familiarity with this population
Jack Wilson looks like he was the victim of said prison rape.
After looking at that smiling face,

it is hard to believe he has depression issues.

Missing John Lackey.
Ian Snell gonna cut a bitch?
You just knew he would get a hit there
Snell looks dangerous.
Jack Wilson looks not dangerous
The guy in the middle looks like a whiter LL Cool J.
Who are those two ugly people?
Snell looks kind of like fiddy.
A lighter skinned 50 cent.
You guys are all so racist.
Who are three people who have never been in my kitchen
How does Jack Wilson play such good defense with one eye pointing toward first and one toward third
WILSON!
LOOK AT THAT BEAUTIFUL MAN.
So is it just me?

Or is Ichiro using a more crouched and slightly open stance than usual… I always remember him standing a little taller and closed off (I could just be retarded)

Also

Bunt here?

I don't think Wilson looks that ugly, personally.
He looks like someone you'd find next to you at the pub.
He looks like Bilbo Baggins retarded cousin.
Jack Wilson sighting at the ballpark. Doesn't look like a baseball player
I wonder is Jack Wilson will walk out to Josh Grobin.
Groban
I am sorry you know that.
Jack Wilson looks so relieved...
He'll be even more relieved when we trade him to the Red Sox tomorrow.
Indians coming back!
Too bad we dont have Josh Wilson in seattle anymore.
The sacks are juiced!!!!
Is Wilson gonna come running in and hit Silva with a steel chair?
I dont know why this is funny.
Jack Wilson appears to be balding
NOW Hines gets gunshy?
It was the right decision...
Ive never seen to eyes so close together.
Are you an optomitrist?
Ugh how did he not score on that?

Please don’t fuck this up Griffey

Good job on holding him ketchup man!
HIT A GRIFFTRIPPER!!!!
Well this will be hilarious
Pinch-hit Wilson for him!
HILARIOUSLY PERFECT
Oh, great, now Jr. going to ground into a double play
I'm sorry I ever doubted you Ken
WHY DID YOU DO THIS JEFFREY SULLIVAN
TO GIVE GRIFFEY HIS MOMENT
WE ARE BACK IN THE GAME
GRIFFEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
HAHAHA GRIFFEY RIFFFETEIRGAPGIHAP
GRIFFEY GRIFFEY GRIFFEY GRIFFEY GRIFFEY

GRIFFEY GRIFFEY GRIFFEY GRIFFEY GRIFFEY

GRIFFEY!!!!!!!!!!
GRIFFEY'S BACK

I CAN’T WAIT FOR BOBBLEHEAD NIGHT!

GRIFFEY!!!!!
GRIFFEY DIDN'T FUCK UP HOLY CRAP
GRIFFEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEYGRIFFEY

GRIFFEY AMERICAN HERO
How can Griffey look so lost for a month? Then comes up with two of his best swings of the year

off Halladay?

Griff es en fuego!!

THE BEST PITCHER ON THE MARKET IS JARROD FUCKING WASHBURN TAKE THAT AND REWIND IT BACK YOU CHUBHUNTERS
What kind of shitty pitcher gives up 11 hits to our offense?
The kind that isn't worth 4 top prospects.
We'll offer you Jarrod Washburn for just 3.75 top prospects!
So... two normal ones and Kyle Blanks?
You don't like Kyle Blanks or defense accounts for .25 of a players makeup?
You're not real good with math are you
Get out of my head
In front of a good defense, too!
There is no defense that could stifle Griffey
NICE JOB ANTIQUES ROADSHOW!!!
Would be complete wtih Jay, Gar, and Dan coming back from retirement to get at bats.
RRS in line for the win again.
Now watch the bullpen blow it like they did for Washburn.
Go back to La Mirada
Wait who live in La Mirada?
Does he pitch the eighth?

I trust him more than anyone in our pen.

He has been giving some liners
With 89 pitches, I can imagine him coming back in.

The 7th sucked but other than that he’s been good.

Haha now it is OUR kind of one run game
Needs more runs
So can we get Wilson in there for the 8th?
2 doubles for the griff.

He didn’t even have to run that hard. .. or Wilson could be Griffey knees for an inning

That ball is way off the plate
It was a ball, yes.
Fuck, the EQC says that was a ball.
They also have AC.
Not.

A strike.

Bullshit call, ump
It's sad that Shelton had to be in the lineup today
It's definitely not a strike

But he’s been calling it all night

Also not.

A strike.

Jarrod Washburn 3rd in ERA again? Like that fucking matters.
Sadly the other GMs don't seem to think it matter either. Doesn't sound like contenders are offering much for him.
I'll take one B prospect for him.
1. He's a 2 month rental. 2. I don't understand why the Yankees are even interested in him. A fly ball pitcher in that ball park is doomed
The Why doesn't matter from our perspective. If they are willing, great.
It really was much better when you didn't feel the need to share your opinion with the rest of us at every opportunity
Define "every". I only posted 3 times today.
Fuck you Kenji
Griffey likely was glad he didn't have to run any further.

Thanks for banning me for awhile there for not using the subject line. At another sbnation site no one uses it except for exclamations. Sorry I wasn’t in the know there. Now bite it.

Dear oh dear.
It's been real.

Later gator.

You're going places.
Other SB Nation sites blow

Bu-bye

Seriously

It’s like a different world.

Buffalo Rumblings is solid...more or less the football version of this site...
This is why I don't hang out at too many of the other SBN blogs

for teams I like. They’re just so painful to read.

Not that I’m a UW fan but I remember trying to read the UW blog and the lack of comment reply going on just drove me nuts.

Bloggingtheboys is very solid.

Stats oriented like LL.

That place was awesome last year when the Cowboys doinked.
Did somebody say my name?
ITS ALL ROMOZ FALT JESIKA SIMPSONJ
Watching Romo drop that snap live in person may have been the greatest sporting event I've ever attended.

Baseball will always be my first love but sweet jesus that was awesome.

I blacked out for ~ 5 seconds and came to hugging some fat guy
I am so glad that I finally have an answer to this question.

(Sounders equalizer in US Open Cup Semi)

At least until I forget it again, but I could not pick out anything that trumped that before.

Yes the end of last year was quite unpleasant.
The only good football blog is Field Gulls

And our readers are out of control half the time. Though it has gotten better.

Wait till September?
In September FG will be so bad. :(
Because of the lack of a running game?

I feel your pain.

I think we will be surprised by our running game this year. Our starting 5 O-Linemen won't be on injured reserve to start the year.

Also, Julius and TJ are better than Hawks fans think. I think 7-9 is a worst case scenario, 12-4 is a best-case. I would not be shocked at all if we made it back to the playoffs. After all, how likely is it that we’ll lose our top 7 receivers, all 5 of our linemen, our starting QB for 8 games, our 2nd QB for 1 game, two of our LBs for 3 games, etc etc etc. for the rest of the year? The 2008 Seahawks, as referenced on FG, were historically unlucky with injuries.

I agree with pretty much all of that. I think we'll be +/- 10 wins.

But I’m far from convinced that the RBs are sufficient for doing anything other than sneaking us into the playoffs.

Oh they're not great by any means.

I expect league-average production out of them. Maybe 4.0 YPC, 15 TDs from the total group, and 1,700 yards? If Hass returns to moderate form, and the Defense improves, that’s enough for 7-11 wins with 6 as a worst case and 12 as a best case.

Uh. FG has pretty shitty commenters.

And I realize I myself am a shitty commenter probably 2/3 of the time. But you, JM, and Doug keep the main page content so good that I can’t stop reading.

Its been better since they got rid of that one guy.
You should have been banned just for liking the Thunder
The guy that runs WTLC has a giant glamour shot of himself on the front page.
You were not banned, you were warned.
And you are still not using the subject line.
Sometimes I wonder how someone can see a subject line used on 1000 comments in game threads

then get warned about how we use it here, and then still not think they need to use it. Thousands and thousands of comments, each one with the subject line, and they act like this is totally new and we are picking on them.

~

Drive down to LA right now. I'mma get you pregnant.
LL doesn't judge a man by the color of his skin

It judges him by how well it can see him in the dark when he smiles

There are guides here.

Have fun no longer needing them.

Can anyone come up with any lineage where Jack Wilson knows somebody in the clubhouse?
He knows Whitey.
Also Griffey played against him a lot.
He's an MLB player. So are the other guys in there.
I just think its possible he's sitting there like the new kid in class, not knowing anyone, and hoping to talk to the cute girl. (Gutierrez)
This is exactly what I envision happening
Then he will ask Guti out on a date to play baseball
But it will be interrupted by other, mean baseball players who want to drink Guti's blood
Then they'll go on a wild chase down the Pacific Coast
Climaxing in an epic fight between the mean baseball players and Wilson in an abandoned dance studio
You've thought about this a lot more than I have...

But I appreciate it. I just hope that they win the big game in the end, down 7 runs in the 6th inning, but dammit they won’t give up.

We’re gonna need a montage.

I'm like 96.5% certain this was a Twilight reference
I see your 96.5 and raise you 100.0000
You're 196.5% certain?

I question your mathematics

Question my poker instead
I would never get a Twilight reference.

Full Moon on the other hand, Im all over that.

Jack Wilson's mom's recorded voice will be used as bait
Also, Guti's hot sister will be there
You need to go jump in the ocean
This was fantastic
Six degress of Jack Wilson?
At least he and Chris Shelton have something in common.
I think Sweeney babysat his dog once

Grifey tickled him at the Allstar game I think

I think he was in Footloose with Kevin Bacon

Am I doing this right?

Ruh rohs....Lowe in
He'd be a good basketball player

Triple double

Take the "IFFEY" out of GRRRRRRIFFEY and you just get "GRRRRRRR"

This is the greatest composition I have ever authored.

Add the "Eat" to the "GRRRRRRRR" and you get "GRRRRRRRRRRREAT!"
Wow,

I can’t believe I missed that one. You are amazing just like me.

♥ Us ♥

Nice pick by Shelton
Goooo GGRRRRRR!

Goooo GGRRRRRR!

If you take the fe out of felix and take the nandez out of hernandez, you get lix her.
Hilarious.
Thanks, I'll be here all week.
Can you just erase my comment please?
GOD
Hilarious, you are not.
I beg to differ.

Also, who asked you?

I think his reply was aimed at the original comment
We protect Eyebrows like a sacred cow around here
It's just water weight, you insensitive brute.
Who will be sacrificed to the demons in control of the Angels.
Yeah that'll work well for you.

Look what happened when we sacrificed Adenhart.

Too soon.
He made this joke for the firast time in May.
We made similar jokes in April.
And you wonder why the Angels never lose...>_>
Because their clubhouse chemistry got so much better without Adenhart in it?
Guess so. Congrats on your win tonight.
You haven't been around LL in a while.
You're not a pitcher
Neither is Adenhart anymore.
We shall encircle him with stink eyes a blazin.
If your eyes are smelly and on fire maybe you should wash them

with some cool water. Try to not get any soap in them.

It's a love / hate relationship.
He's extremely hilarious?
Whew

Aardsma in the ninth…I feel confident.

Nothing but sliders!
Thing of beauty!
Okay, now I need to go to White Castle.
Nothing to do with my Indian heritage or my pot smoking habit.
I'd rather have dosa, but that's just me
Good dosas here in NJ. Well, dosa it is, then
mmmmmmmysore masala dosa. Now I'm jealous.
All the way, man. The spices, they linger on your tongue for a good hour after you eat it.
Now I want to go to Cascadia for HH.
Methinks Lowe should demand Kenji

as his personal catcher…

Fast ball... faster Ball... Fastest Ball

Line out to guti

Hammerin' Jack is up woohoo

Looks like they got Bruce Lee’s son to pitch the 8th

Brandon League is white.
And he generates more swinging strikes than called strikes.
I've been out all evening and have missed two trades and a game?!

What is the general feeling of the trades? First glance, looks like an unusual trade considering our position as reloading?

I like em

Not as much as the dreamy thoughts we hoped for but I think definitely upgraded

I think Dave pretty much sums up my feelings.
What did he say? I have to shoot in a few mins...
Overpay for Wilson/Snell, doesn't like Wlad trade at all
We get monies.
I think Aardsma should get to wear his gladiator helm to pitch tonight
This game looks fun. Even if we didn't score 10 runs.
How did we get so many hits against Roy???
Am I foolish for not being disappointed with Wilson and Snell for a 26-year old with no position, a MIF who can't hit, and 3 maybe-they-will or maybe-they-won't A-ballers?

Honestly, I’m happy we’re winning without our new talent, and I think the deal is a slight M’s win, though not a great deal for us. But honestly…we’re beating Roy Halladay right now. And we got a high K reliever for a reclamation project like Wlad. We may have given up too much quantity, but I really feel like we gave up high-risk, high reward, for medium risk, medum/high-reward (Snell being the high reward) am I wrong?

Also, holy crap we are winning against Roy Halladay while starting Chris Woodward at SS and Junior doubled in the go-ahead runs. I feel getting a true MLB SS, a 3-4 SP for high-risk high-reward guys, and winning against Halladay with our over the hill DH delivring the big blow is a great day overall.

Also, why is Branyan sitting two straight days? Is he hurt? My news search is in German today and will be in Italian tomorrow, so it’s hard to understand what’s going on. A little help, guys?

His back is sore.
I agree with you about the trade

It’s not something that I’m really excited about, but I thought we did okay.

That's pretty much my thought. We got real upgrades at positions of need.

But, we may have gave up a little too much. However, it’s not a huge loss. We improved 2009 and 2010 at the cost of hurting ourselves in 2011 and 12 if the three A-ballers pan out. However, if they don’t we win the deal outright. Though I know evaluating deals at the time in better than evaluating them in retrospect.

Treating the A-ballers as irrelevent is as short sighted as people who think prospects don't matter in trades
It does feel like they're a collection of maybe 5s/likely RPs though.
You could probably have squeezed one league average starter out of the three
Wow, I think that's your 90th percentile.
Let's rephrase this:

I think that the value of that package will likely be around the equivalent of a league average starting pitcher for six years. This includes all of them as relievers, two of them as #4s, etc.

90th percentile from each?
Not in my opinion.
I think that's a stretch.

90th percentile you get two of ‘em. Lorin/Pribanic weren’t getting GBs with like 85 MPH fbs.
Two #4s is possible. Maybe not exactly likely, but….

Pribanic was also running below average K rates in A ball as a college arm.

I liked him, but I don’t have high hopes for him.

If it was Adcock + one of Pribanic or Lorin, I think this would be looking like an even trade.

I'd be happier with that

But I just can’t believe the Pirates had the leverage to demand this much. Snell told them he had no desire to pitch for them anymore. And they got ALL of Adcock/Pribanic/Lorin?

You’re right about Pribanic of course, but I think he made immense strides this year, and I feel there’s more projection there. He’s just not a finished/polished product. That and, uh, TONS of ground balls.

Didn't Jeff Weaver get a bunch of ground balls?
Buds, Paul. Buds.

He was a fan of freshly ground bud, and always knew where to find some. But no, he wasn’t a GB pitcher.

That was my thought as well.

Pittsburgh will be happy if one of the three turns into a league average starter. If two pan out, we lose the deal. If three pan out, we did terrible in the deal. I guess the way I see it is, even if one pans out, we win. If two pan out, we lose slightly. If three pan out, we lose a lot. But at the time, if it’s not a slight M’s win, it’s a slight Pirates win. It’s not too lopsided in either team’s favor.

I'm not calling them irrelevant.

I guess I feel that A-Ballers that are not blue chippers have upside as 3 starters if they completely pan out, 4-5 starters if they reach their mean, and are AAAA guys if they don’t. I feel they have value, but they are not extremely likely to reach their full potential.

Results based analysis.

You’re better than that, Brett!

Well here's how I think it is.

Results wise, our 3 A-Ballers have done really well. However, looking at the track records of most A-Ballers, they’re not likely to become more than 3, 4, or 5 starters, if they make the majors at all. Clement will likely be an ~.800 OPS bat, Cedeno will be .600-700 with good D. The A-Ballers…I don’t feel too bad losing them. I feel a bit bad losing THREE of them. However, odds are, based on past history, only one of them is likely to pan out. At least, that’s how it feels. I have no problem admitting I’m wrong if people can provide evidence otherwise about A-Baller’s success (J/M/G?) but I feel that Pittsburgh is hoping that Clement hits, Cedeno is around a .700 OPS, not .600, and one of the three P’s pans out. I do think that is a tall order. I don’t think that’s results based. I don’t think it’s a steal for the M’s. But I really don’t think it’s bad for the M’s either.

If only one of them is likely to pan out they have a 33% success rate.

67%^3=30% which would therefore be the likelihood of none of them panning out per your suggestion.

Sure. But even if they have 30% success rate (if that's how I'm to understand it, I've had a bit to drink so I'm sorry if I don't

I don’t think that’s a bad deal for the M’s.

WIlson is what, a 1.5-2.5 win player? Snell may have upside as a 3.50 FIP (I mean, he’s young and around 4.30 career), 4.20 tRA guy? I think we’re going for risk as much as the Pirates. We gave up a quantity of potentially good players for a few guys that our (fairly smart) FO thinks may give us a bit more value. I think part of my optimism may be just blind trust in Jack Z, but I really don’t think it’s a bad deal. We’re not ripping the Pirates off, but it’s in the realm of slight M’s win to slight M’s loss. I don’t feel bad about the deal.

Um. Cost? Years of team control?

Some of these things are important

I understand that.

However, if they end up being #5 arms/RPs, a not unlikely scenario, how bad is it? If we lose 5 years of middle relivers and/or a #5 starter, how bad is that? Jack has assembled pretty good #5 arms and MRPs for pretty much nothing. I know we’ve only had three averageish RPs by FIP (White, Lowe, Aardsma) but getting #5’s/RPs under team control for a small amount of money doesn’t look like something that Z is bad at. I guess that’s why I’m not worried. I feel like he can replace this loss fairly cheaply. Yeah, we may have lost a #3 starter if Lorin totally pans out. But we have to keep risk in mind. And if he becomes a #3 starter, I will cheerfully admit that Z blew it, hard, on this deal. I just don’t see the risk/reward possibility as that bad on the three A arms. I keep saying—it’s not a GREAT deal. But to say it’s bad is overstating it, really. For it to be bad, the A-ball arms would have to become more than cheap #5’s or decent Middle relievers. It’s possible they will become more than that. But based on what I’ve seen of pitching prospects in my day, I really just expect the least from pitching prospects. That’s probably wrong of me to do. I think not hating,but not loving the deal is about right. It’s a good return that may look below average later. But it’s not a deal we’ll rue in the future, I don’t think.

There was a quote in this weeks ESPN the magazine about how scouts have a term that goes something like "There is no such thing as a pitching prospect"

Because so few ever do what they’re supposed to do.

That's BP's thing and TINSTAPP is dumb
*If* Snell works out, and is a 4.2 tRA guy

(and please note his career tRA is closer to 5, though there were extenuating circumstances like he hated everyone), we’ll be paying him $4.25 million next year and then a club option at $6.75m the year after.
IF we want our 1.5-2.5 WAR SS in Wilson, we’ll need to pay him $8.4M.

That’s what happens if everything works out. That’s not a terrible outcome or anything, but we traded ‘a ballers’ and Clement and Cedeno for a moderate chance of paying players around what they’re worth. Huh.

I haven't looked up Snell's tRA today, so I admit that I'm ignorant to that.

However his FIP is pretty solid. I’ll discuss this more tomorrow afternoon however. It’s 1:30 am here and I have to sleep.

His FIP is around league averageish

It was 4.57 in ‘08 and 4.57 in ’09. Again, we seem to be betting on the notion that he’s much more like his career year in ‘07 (4.01 FIP), and that he’s been walking the world because he’s mad at Pittsburgh.
I’ve got no problem with that – he seems talented and all. But again, IF he’s able to pull it together a bit and get to league average in the AL (which would take a lot of improvement), then…. he’ll be paid exactly what he’s worth.
Again, he’s a good risk, but Pitt. had no leverage with him, and we seemed to give up a lot in order to assume that risk.

it's an annoying trade because it feels like we could have gotten more.

But because the pirates are also essentially paying their contracts the rest of the year, it’s not that bad. Wlad’s kind of sucks, but whatever. Also Branyan has back tightness.

I also feel like we could've gotten more.

But I trust Jack to make the best trade available to us at the time. I feel if he could’ve brought back a Brignac/Kazmir package, he would’ve done it.

I totally agree that Z would have taken Brignac/Kazmir had he been able to at a reasonable cost

That’s why Z is still cool

It's not a slight Mariner win
This man seems like he knows whats going on.
I trust you then.

I guess I just feel that unless two of Pribanic, Lorin, and Adcock actually pan out, we win. I’ve heard people say that Jeffie’s upside is .275/.360/.475…and as a catcher, that’s great, but as a 1B, not so much. Also, Cedeno is what, a 1-2 WAR player? I guess the reason I see it as a slight M’s win—at least for now—is because we gave up guys who may or may not make it to the bigs for guys who are sure upgrades now. I love me some prospects, but it seems we gave up C+ to B prospects, not A prospects to get solid MLB players now. And as much as I love Jeffie, I don’t see him as more than a B prospect. But I’d love to hear a more detailed take from you—I know I’m not half the analyst you are. Let me know why you think what you do? I’ve heard Jeff’s take, but I’d love to hear yours as well.

If Adam Jones and Chris Tillman had busted the Bedard trade was great
Why does everyone care that we gave up two A-ballers in that deal?

Tillman’s ERA was over five!

In High Desert and his other numbers and rates suggested that he would do better.
I think this is different...

Lorin, Pribanic, and Adcock are high-risk, high reward guys. People knew Jones would be good. They knew Tillman would likely at least be not-terrible. I don’t see this package as comparable, because the three arms we gave up are all high risk, being in A-ball and all. As I’ve said, I don’t think this is an outright win for the M’s. But it’s not a loss. For 2009 and 10, it’s probably a wash or slight win. But you have to factor the risk of the A-Ballers we gave up as well as the reward. Like I’ve said, you’re a better analyst than I, but I don’t seriously believe that we overpaid drastically. Maybe a little. But not a lot.

Just because they are higher risk does not mean you suddenly don't care until you see their careers

It doesn’t make them innately valueluess

He's not saying they are valueless.

Just riskier.

By saying that we'll have to wait and see how they pan out he is clearly saying he is unable to value them as we stand
Well, what I've been trying to communicate (poorly, probably) is that Jack may not feel that they are likely to reach their potential.

If he’s wrong on them, well, we didn’t do too well in this deal. But if he’s right, we did. At the time of the deal, we are either slight winners or slight losers in my eyes. But I think Jack knows how to evaluate players, and the risk is probably why he was willing to trade them.

Exactly. They have value, and I recognize that.

But how many A-Ballers of that profile pan out? I think Jack Z is just hoping that they don’t pan out to improve for the next two years. Yes, it sucks to lose them, but I think he’s taking less risk for a higher chance of medium to above average reward.

Oh I care about their careers.

I’m not jumping for joy over the deal. But realistically, it’s unlikely that all three of the a-ballers pan out. If Clement becomes an .830 OPS 1B, and Ronny reaches a .700 OPS true talent level, and two of the three A-Ballers pan out then Pittsburgh won the deal. However, it has seemed in the past that high risk a-ballers don’t often pan out. If they do, results wise, we lose. I think Jack Z’s line of thinking is, however, that it’s not likely that all three pan out, and we’re adding wins against high risk A-Baller’s panning out. Like I said, it’s not a great deal, but I just feel it’s wrong to lament it as a BAD deal.

How many WAR do you think Wilson/Snell will provide next year?

Is that worth losing 6 years of Clement and the probability of getting some contribution for the pitchers?

And how much will we pay them next year?

It’s sporting of Pittsburgh to throw in money for 09 (which is more than half over), but that’s not the point.

Best-case scenario?

Wilson is worth 2.5 WAR with a great year, and Snell is worth 3.0 WAR. Best-case scenario. At worst, Wilson is what, 1.5, and Snell is 2.0?

I love Clement. I almost bought a jersey. If he has a great year, he’s worth what, 3.0 WAR as a 1B? His bat is great for a catcher and average for a 1B as far as I’ve been told from great SABR analysts like you and J/M and Dave.

Cedeno? 1.5 if he can get to a .300 wOBA and play similar defense?

The 3 A-Ball arms are nice. But Lorin is a 3.0 WAR guy if all pans out, Adcock about the same, and Pribanic around 2.0? That’s if they reach their absolute upside, right? At least, that’s how I seem to interpret it from what I’ve read. Maybe I’m wrong. But it seems like, for 2009 and 2010, we win the deal. It’s possible Pittsburgh gets better value. But if we get 2 wins from Snell and Wilson this year, and 5 wins from the two next year, it’s not terrible. Pittsburgh’s return has higher upside, but significantly higher risk. If they all reach their potential, we lose the deal outright. But how likely is it that all of the players we traded reach their total upside?

At worst, Snell is in jail for murder and Wilson is out of baseball.
His own murder!
This is the nature of trades like this

Of course the players we got are going to be more valuable over the next year and a half. Pittsburgh is trading for the future. But if they end up with a Clement and a Lorin as quality major leaguers under team control at a cheap cost, then they win the deal long-term. If Adcock or Pribanic also get to that level, it’s a wipe-out unless Snell is phenomenal here.

Results based
The point is

It’s really, really hard to grade a trade like this until you do have some results.

Right. I know for 2009 and 2010 it's hard for us to lose.

I’m just saying that, it’s possible that we win beyond that too. Not necessarily likely, but it’s not a sure thing that even one of the three A-Ballers pan out. I think overall this trade is most likely to be a wash for us. But to call it great, or terrible, seems wrong to me.

Sum six years each of Clement, Pribanic, Lorin, and Adcock

We clearly lose this deal long term. We also clearly win the deal for next year.

Again, Clement and Cedeno aren't the stumbling blocks here.
Branyans back is sore. He'll be back soon

I think it was a relatively even trade. Wilson just made an appearance in the dugout. Introduced himself to Wak

Branyan's been sore lately.

I don’t like the trade; we gave up too much minor league talent.

Awww Mike Sweeney hugged Jack Wilson
"its ok...you can talk to Chris over here"
Bless his heart!
Wilson first meets Sweeney and Mike gives him a hug.
Its like Mike Sweeney is a more manly Joey Cora.
I remember winning a game against Roy Halladay when Miguel Batista was the starter.
DAMN IT AARDSMA NO
Why are there so many Blue Jays fans????
Vancouver not that far away?
Yeah but you need a passport now

I would have assumed that would keep several Canucks north of the border

This. I noticed it last year too. Lots of "Let's go Blue-Jays" chants. So annoying.
We're near Canada?
Canada is not too far away.
Seattle is close to Canada and the whole country roots for Toronto?
Toronto is televised in Vancouver
Wait is Aardsma fucking up?
Unclear which direction just yet
Well crap.

Pitch better Aardsma.

What the fuck is this? A Lets Go Blue Jays chant?
It's almost as bad as Boston fans
Seattle fans are too nice

If it was Philly they’d go home in the trunk of their car

This is starting to look like another one of those terrifying Aardsma appearances
You mean like 3/4 of his appearances?
We should have traded for a closer instead

We’re doomed

Robert Manuel
Splitter here would be nice.
Kindly have a seat, Mr. Lind
Who gets a viking helmet...
Who owns the new Viking helmet?
couldn't be Bautista

He gets an ewok helmet

What a fine time for Gameday to freeze
2-2 count, 1 out, runner on first
Thrid out ground out to Hannhan (SP)
Swinging Strikeout
Sounders jerseys look so terrible on people who are not fit.
Isn't that the case with most jerseys?
As do Basketball Jerseys,

If you’re fat, Football and Hockey jerseys are your thing…

It is difficult to find a hockey sweater that doesn't fit better if you're fat.
Sanchez got traded to San Fran?
Sanchez who?
Ohhhhhhhh.
Apparently, I hadn't heard about that until Sims mentioned it just now
Yeah, told to stay in SanFran.
That would be convenient for him
Officially now?
5:46pm: Henry Schulman at the San Francisco Chronicle is reporting that it's a done deal, Sanchez straight up for a minor-leaguer. Stay tuned for the name.
Tim Alderson, shit

Two great trades by the Pirates today.

Goes to show, maybe they wouldn't have taken just anything for Snell.
Well today is a good day to be a Pirates fan.
Wowzers.

I didn’t really get a lot of their earlier moves, but I think they’ve done some serious work today.

Giants did desperately need a 2B.
WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Damn, Pirates dealing everyone.
Just you wait until they make the WS
No one wants to wait that long.
Jeff Clement's retires after this.
It still amazes me how Aardsma misses so many bats...
YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEES!
I feel like Gameday is way behind, what's the base/out status?
CASE CLOSED! THE DA!
Case Closed!

WIN!

Get crushed by the Indians, beat Halladay

of course. What else was I expecting?

Hyaaa!!!

We Whooped on Halladay

CANADA SHOULD STICK TO BEING A DOMINION.
We won without Jeff Clement!

WOO

DA closes the case!!
Clearly the moral of today's game is that RRS is superior to Roy Halladay.
SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL
Neat, a win.

Today is still disappointing.

Trade Washburn!

CALL THE YANKEES AND GRAB THEIR TESTICLES VICIOUSLY
Uhh
For Washburn
They just traded for Jason Hirsh.
If the BoSox lose, we're back in it!
Jack Wilson looks happy to be here, that's nice to see.
He's happy to be anywhere not Pittsburg
WASHBURN FOR HALLADAY STRAIGHT UP
I think all Snell needs to make him happy is a Sweeney hug
We are getting Beltre back soon?
Yes.
Man, our defense is extremely going to improve.
Kovacevic says it's Alderson?
What the donkeyfuck
Yeah

Pirates making great trades.

That's a hell of a return.
With these returns today

it makes me think we’ve got to be able to get something good for Wash.

Gameday melts at 100+

I think we just traded for HI McDunnough

Welcome Jack Wilson!

I loved that movie.
Do you have any balloons that blow up into funny shapes?

Not unless round is funny.

The pirates are screwing everyone over.
We got screwed?
No

But I think we got beat

So the White Sox need a SP...
Hmm...

Off to look up prospects!

Boston is loosing

But I don’t know why I care because there’snoway

Why not keep hoping?

I still want to trade Wash, but there’s no reason not to hope for a miracle.

You never know, as far-fetched as it seems.
I do know how to spell, by the way

I don’t know why I decided to type loosing

Scott Elbert scratched from his start in AAA

99% chance it has nothing to do with the Mariners, but the Dodgers were looking at starting pitching…

If not, could be a trade elsewhere. In which case it could still be moderately interesting, because Elbert is pretty good.

You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Lookout Landing to post a comment.