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Lookout Landing

43-39, Game Notes

It would've been really easy to lose this game. No matter what the players might say about how they look at every game the same way, and how last week's trip was no different than any other, everybody knew it. Everybody in the clubhouse knew what they were up against in LA, New York, and Boston, and so, after putting so much energy into making a nightmarish trip a successful one, it would've been easy for the M's to come home and suffer a letdown. Hell, not only were they probably exhausted, but playing Baltimore doesn't really rev the engine quite like playing one of the beasts. I know I was having trouble getting amped. So to come out and put together a winning effort that at no point felt all that uneasy - that either says a lot about the M's or a lot about the O's, but winning like this was exactly what this team needed to do, and it puts my mind at ease. Forget about a letdown. If this team stumbles, it'll be independent of the most recent road trip, which means that we can now officially put what we thought would be a nine-game stretch of devastation in the books as an absolute, unquestionable success.

That's amazing.

  • It's a funny thing about one-hitters - the longer they last, the worse you feel when they're over. Washburn only allowed the one single - Baltimore's only baserunner of the game - but because it happened in the fourth, superstition never had time to get involved, and come the final out, we were left to reflect not on a missed opportunity, but on a brilliantly-pitched game. I mean, yeah, everyone's going to wonder "what if?" about Markakis' liner, but because it was a clean hit that happened so early in the game, there was never any disappointment. For two hours and nine minutes, we just got to sit back and enjoy watching the Mariners make the Orioles look like the Mariners.

    I didn't actually think Washburn looked that sharp in the early innings. He fell behind six of the first eight hitters he faced, and five of the Orioles' first 14 batters hit line drives. Even Dave Sims noted that Baltimore was hitting the ball on the nose, and they were just finding gloves. But as the second half of the game rolled around, Jarrod settled into one of those Mark Buehrle grooves where he knew where he was throwing the ball, and worked with a tempo that kept everyone comfortable but the guy at the plate. In the seventh and eighth innings, he got through Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Aubrey Huff, and Ty Wigginton on six pitches. Washburn was dealing in true Ryan Franklin fashion, but the difference between Washburn and Franklin is that when Washburn is going well, he inspires confidence in the viewer. By the end of the game, I was fully on board. This was Jarrod Washburn's night, and no one was going to ruin it.

    That was about as well-pitched a three-strikeout complete game as any you're going to see. It's important to note that Washburn still doesn't have a good tRA, and has been generating better results than we can expect to see in the future, but for right now, nine innings are nine innings. With Bedard going on a pitch count tomorrow, I don't know that Jarrod could've had better timing.

  • On two occasions tonight, Ryan Langerhans came within a few feet of leaving the yard to left-center field. In the sixth he lifted a deep fly ball that Nolan Reimold played into a double off the wall, and an inning later he hit another to around the same area with the bases loaded for a sac fly. Those are fly balls that leave a lot of other stadiums, and they serve as a reminder that he's not just another light-hitting fourth outfielder masquerading as a regular. Langerhans is a powerful man whose problem has always been making the right contact, and when he makes it, he can hit the ball a long way. Of course, power to the opposite field isn't exactly what we want out of our lefties in Safeco, but it's cool to see that Langerhans has that capability nonetheless. I know a lot of you are bummed about Wlad losing his playing time, but even the most devoted Balentien supporter has to admit that Langerhans is intriguing. And since he's still arbitration-eligible for a couple more years, a good showing here means he could offer some insurance next season should Saunders struggle, which is something not a lot of people have talked about.

  • Russell Branyan hit his latest mammoth home run on a fastball outside off the plate. Branyan has actually hit a number of his home runs on fastballs outside off the plate. It's weird to say about a guy who strikes out so often, but Branyan has pretty good plate coverage, in that he's capable of going deep on a pitch anywhere in or around the zone. He definitely seems to have a preference for getting his arms extended on pitches away, though. I think Branyan might be one of those rare lefties I think about pitching in instead of away. Pitching him away must be terrifying.

  • Actually, I wonder what it's like to face an all-or-nothing guy like Branyan. A pitcher knows he's an easy strikeout, which is good for the mindset, but he also knows that a 500 foot homer is a distinct possibility, which makes you nervous. Is a pitcher facing Branyan more excited or more uneasy than he is when facing a league-average hitter?

  • Even during this little hot streak or whatever the hell it is that he's on, Ronny Cedeno is still perfectly capable of swinging like a damn retard. Today he swung seven times, missing with four of them, and for good measure whiffed on a squeeze opportunity on a fastball at the thigh. After careful consideration of his appearance through these first three months, I'm going to think of his current .491 OPS as the OPS an MLB team could expect if they called up a random little leaguer. If Cedeno can take a little league approach and little league swings against Major League pitching and still OPS .491, then by Jove, why couldn't anyone else? This makes Rob Johnson's .584 OPS a wee bit underwhelming.

  • Since falling head-first into regular playing time a week ago, Chris Woodward has hit an almost completely empty .280, but that empty .280 includes things like his barehand stop and bases-loaded double tonight. The double essentially clinched the game, and the barehand on Adam Jones after ranging over a few nautical miles to his left was something out of the Beltre playbook. Woodward isn't a good player, and he's only playing now because the M's need someone to fill in while they scour the league for solutions, but the neat thing about small sample sizes is that anything can happen, and tonight, Woodward was a valuable player. While they look for someone else, the M's don't need Chris Woodward to be a better player than he is. They just need him to look like it. Tonight, he did a good job.

  • I wonder how many times a batter has to foul a pitch a foot inside off his ankle before he stops chasing that pitch.

  • 76578660_medium

Erik Bedard on a pitch count tomorrow. It seems like there's something important going on with this team every day. I'm not 100% positive but I think that's good.

2 recs  |  651 comments

Comments

I am so glad you included the picture of Sims and the hat.
With that hat

I kind of expected Dave to issue a warning about non payment to his how during the broadcast

I think that hat need to appear on every players head.

I want to see Jr. in it.

or Corky.

I expected him to go golfing with Bing Crosby at Pebble Beach
Notes from the Safe

*Ronny’s at-bat music, at least tonight, was “That’s What You Get” by Paramore. Now, I’m a sucker for chick bands and I actually like Paramore (ducks), but as your at-bat music in the major leagues? Come on Ronny, get some real music. And if he didn’t actually choose it and the random dude in the booth picked it, come on random dude in the booth. Don’t do that to Ronny while he’s currently hitting below the Mendoza line. Give yourself/him some real music.

*Really no electricity in the stadium, since the hit came in the 4th, but by the end I was floating. I have to say this was the best game I’ve seen in person. Note that I’m a new Ms fan (3 years as of a few weeks ago), so I don’t have a lot of history, but witnessing the first 1-hitter by an Ms pitcher in Safeco was pretty cool. Jarrod may be pitching way over his head, but this was fun to watch. Now if I never see a Felix no-hitter in my life at Safeco, I’ll feel robbed.

*I felt like Washburn’s curveball didn’t get enough credit on the postgame show, so when I called in I mentioned it. He was throwing it for strikes all night long, in a lot of counts (at least 2 first pitches that I remember). It sure as hell doesn’t have a lot of break, and is a lollipop curve if I understand the term correctly, but he was locating it and they weren’t hitting it, and it was fun to watch drop in there.

*Woody’s barehand grab and throw to first was Betre-esque, no doubt about it. It was pretty to watch.

*In the top of the 9th while the players warmed up, they played “The Distance” by Cake, which was a nice touch. Can’t remember off hand if I’ve seen a CG at Safeco before, but I thought that was cool.

*They were replaying the game at Collins Pub when I dropped in after the game for a few beers, which was fun. I had to leave after the 8th because they were closing (only thing I dislike about Collins, they close early all the time), but the game was so short it was cool to see a lot of it again in TV mode. And the Watermelon Wheat was amazing, if you like fruity beers like me. Really, it was like a watermelon jolly rancher dropped in a nice wheat beer, except you know, actually made to taste good. Mmmmmmmmm.

I remember seeing Washburn pitch a similar CG shutout in person against the Yankees a couple years ago.

It’s surprising how Washburn can pull starts like these out of his ass sometimes. It’s almost like he will pitch below average (probably more average/above average this year) most of the time, then pitch an ace-like game every once in a blue moon.

That was my first ever baseball game in person

And it was awesome,although it was 8ip not a SHO,which is fine by me because it meant that JJ came in for the save.

Oooo!

Where is Collins Pub, por favor?

In the bottom of Smith Tower

on Second Ave

When you say someones batting average is empty what exactly does that mean?

That he’s getting hits and not driving runners or is a sabermetrics statistic involved?

I think it's just

Not a high OBP or SLG, which means they’re like Yuni or Vidro-roughly .300 average but a terrible hitter.

I think he means he's hitting a bunch of singles
Yeah, nothing but batting average

no power or walks.

Dave is such a pimp.
What a nice game.

And hey, SBN finally added mobile commenting.

Ooh, so you can

The mobile interface is excellent here, too.

Nice one SBN. We approve.

It's very nice
Neat
It sucks that it says via mobile because otherwise it could be a real face saver when embarassing typos are made.
Add "via mobile" to your sig and hope to confuse people.
Though my Blackberry has an outstanding spell checker,

I think a game thread would kill my Blackberry.

It only usually displays around 20 messages per page.
Testing this out.

The pages are loading quicker, too. Very nice update last night.

Another test here.

I am sitting in front of my laptop and my last comment didn’t auto-update (I had to refresh to see it).

Could someone please respond to this comment. I want to see if it will update after you do so.

Here you go

anything exciting happen?

It didn't update on my laptop.

I refreshed via mobile and there you are. Sec 108’s comment did update below, though, so comments are loading fine.

Or maybe not.

Strange. I guess it makes sense when you comment from your phone the account on the computer becomes unassociated and you might as well not be logged in. Not a big deal considering you won’t be commenting from your phone when you are sitting in front of a computer… unless of course you want to pretend you are on the road or something.

so, comments from oneself will never auto-update

If you’re logged in on two browsers, you’ll never see comments pop up from yourself. The system assumes you don’t need to see your own comments as updates. I believe this has always been the case.

BUT I WANT TO TALK TO MYSELF DAMMIT

TALKING TO MYSELF ON THE BUS IS GETTING OLD AND I WANT TO TALK TO MYSELF ONLINE TOO.

I noticed this, too.
I never tried two browsers at the same time.

I just figured maybe somebody commenting below would make it appear.

I wasn't able to get the reply button to work on my phone,

but that may be because my phone sucks.

bash it against the desk a few times, that oughta loosen it up
Interesting

“Did you know you can comment on Lookout Landing from your phone or PDA? SB Nation has launched mobile commenting. Check it out next time you’re at the game or bar and have something to say.”

SBN appears to be promoting this.

You're surprised they're promoting their own product?
I was surprised, that's all.
If they don't let anyone know about the existence of something they spent time and money on,

how will people know to use it?

Science!
My Z button doesn't work!
You have no idea how many times this has angered me while browsing LL on Opera Mini
Awesome
So

who goes away for Bedard? Seems like it isn’t so easy to send Corcoran or Olson away anymore…seems most likely that Sweeney will go to the DL.

Hopefully the Angels
So a 13 man staff and a bench consisting of Wlad, Rob Johnson/Kenji, and Josh Wilson?

Seems like that would only exacerbate our problems. Just send down one of the bullpen arms, Corco, Lowe, and Sean White all need to learn to throw strikes, so why not do it in Tacoma?

Oh, forgot about Shawn Kelley.

Hmm. I don’t think they’ll send down Lowe or White. Maybe Jakubauskas.

Jakubaskas is my Elvis-ubaskas.
Jakubauskas is not going anywhere.

Corco or White would go before Jak.

my money would be on RCorc

He has been all kinds of inconsistent.

Carp is still on the roster I believe
If not Carp then Josh Wilson.

Who? Yeah, exactly.

No, Carp went down for Kelley

Personally, I’d do Sweeney to the DL anyway, then send down Corcoran and bring up Shelton.

According to Dave Cameron's analysis

probably Garrett Olson; he laid out the rotation and due to the All-Star break and the way our games are scheduled afterward, the M’s will be able to go with a four-man rotation for a few turns. He’s figuring Olson goes down to keep starting in Tacoma (so that he’s available and stretched out if we need a starter) while Vargas moves into the ’pen for a couple weeks.

Makes sense to me.

Jeff, I just want to say thanks for these game summaries. Due to work and life I don't get to watch as many games as I would like, and these help.
seriously

these are great. It never feels right when a game goes by without one.

It feels a whole lot of not right when the M's take 2 of 3 in Boston without one

Less Jeff writing = wither LL

Also
Jarrod will never wash his hand again.

= Gold

Actually a sort of dullish brown eventually turning to black
Woodward = WFBG?

That gamer’s effort, man … the effort …

BTW...

It was mentioned on the broadcast last night that the M’s have the best record in baseball since June 19th.

Wow. Why does it still feel like it's not that good?
Because of the Mariner history of having the other shoe drop right about now
Because we're still trailing two teams in the standings.
I guess its easy to forget just how out of hand things were starting to get in May and that if it weren't for this current run, we'd be 7 or more games back.
SSS FTW

We’re tied for the best record in baseball since July 6th!

Not only that, we're undefeated in that stretch
Because May was all kinds of awful
It's funny.

Were 11-5 since the 19th. But 13-6 since the 16th. Someone must have us beat going back three more days?

This was only my Second game attended

Have always been a Royals fan until moved out to Seattle recently. Had been a Mariners fan a long time ago.

Last night was very cool to see, and since it was in person that was the best (?) pitching from a SP that I have ever witnessed.

(?)= only 3Ks, but with all the great D, the groundouts and flyouts were just sweet.

Washburn mowed down the 7th before i could finish using the restroom. That is efficiency!!!

After last nights game and this current stretch

We have to at least consider the possibility that in a 5 and 7 game series, when the 4 and 5 starters go to the bullpen, we’d match up as well as any team in terms of starting pitching. And if that’s true, we need to start thinking about trading some of our beloved prospects for a Jermaine Dye, or a Jack Wilson, or both, to finally make a run at this GD World Series.

Where the heck would we play Jermaine Dye?
I heard Kenny Lofton was looking for a gig, let's go after him too!
Oh boy.
We have 5 pitchers that could start game 1!
Actually, we have more than 50

there’s no reason we can’t call up Michael Pineda to start game 1

Did you count Jamie Burke?

He’s still around.

I think we should start Ichiro
What?

Is that you, Bavasi?

Yes. Exactly. Its Bill Bavasi. Because any of those moves really compare to any of the trades Bavasi made outside of the Bedard trade.
What you are suggesting isn't as bad as the Bedard trade but it comes from the exact same thought process.
So... is baseball one of the sports that Kenny knows?
You know that Jarrod Washburn is a below-average starting pitcher, right?
Tell me which teams #3 pitcher is better than Washburn?

Joe Saunders? Armando Galarraga? Wakefield/Penny/Smoltz? Andy Pettitte?

He’s got better numbers and is really pitching better than any of them.

I’m sorry but Dye’s got a .935 OPS, he’s helped other teams make it to the postseason and world series. I don’t know if he can play or is willing to play left, but if he is/can, those 10-15 homers he’s going to hit in the final two months of the season and playoffs would be very helpful.

How many stupid prospects have we tightly held onto that never panned out? Travis Blackley? Nageotte? Ramon Vazquez? Yeah, we’ve traded away some good ones, but given the depth we appear to have at catcher, I’m ready to move a Jeff Clement or an Adam Moore for a proven bat or a steady SS glove.

You need some help in understanding how to properly value baseball players.
But Kenny Knows Sports.
And if you are willing to listen, we are willing to help.

If you are, instead, going to refuse to listen to new information, then you will be constantly mocked.

In a nutshell, the above two sentences are what LL is about.

That and tickle parties.
And homoeroticism
If I'm willing to listen to you tell me that I need help in understanding player values?

Fine, you think I’m an idiot because I made a comment about us needing to make a trade. I didn’t make any trade proposals, I just threw some names out there and said these are guys who could potentially help us out and let’s not subtract from out major league roster in doing that. BFD.

We already have many DHs already

There’s no place for Dye, and moving from Comiskey to Safeco would likely eat into his power

No, I think you are an idiot because of the thought process that you said went into the players you listed

as potentially helping us out.

Seriously, I am not being vain here. We know baseball. This is not just a hobby, we are paid to know it.

Kenny, if you take nothing else from this whole thing know that Matthew is correct here.
This is exactly the kind of attitude that will make people hate you.

The authors here know way more about baseball than you do (or I do, or pretty much everyone else here) and they have the credentials to prove it. To dismiss their criticism of your thought process out of hand is appallingly arrogant.

Listen, I'm pretty much BRAND NEW here.

I don’t know Matthew from any of you. You can take it as me thinking I’m smarter than everyone else here, but you’re just wrong. I don’t think I’m smarter than anyone here, I’m trying to be as cautious as possible when making comments.

All I am asking Matthew is “What do you mean?” You just said “we’re willing to help if you’re willing to listen”

I’m all ears, just explain to me why, just for arguments sake, why adding Jermaine Dye (and let’s say we claimed him off waivers for nothing) would hurt the Mariners.

Well if we claimed him off waiver for nothing it wouldn't hurt if he only played DH but that's quite obviously no the case.
Your comment here

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/7/6/940297/43-39-game-notes#17889983

in no ways convenes an attitude of sincerely asking for help.

My subject line, at least I thought, clearly showed I had no idea what you were trying to say.
P-I Soundoff is thataway
But you suggested a player that has little to no value to us. If you had suggested a player that filled a need, say like a short stop, then maybe we would have given you more respect.
I said Jack Wilson. As many other writers around Seattle have.
And nobody is picking issue with that.

What got picked issue with was Dye playing LF, and your reasoning including the phrases “helped teams get into the playoffs before” and “10-15 home runs”

See, just saying that, you're telling me what you think I did wrong but not why it's wrong?

Look, I’m not Bob Costas or someone who’s just going to believe that sports is all magic. But I do put some weight into a player who has been to the playoffs a few times before.

Well I think you're going to have trouble finding very many people here who agree with you on that

and until you can give anyone a valid reason to agree with you, prepare to have that line of thinking criticized.

Nobody here is happy to have Griffey and Sweeney?
Not really.
I sure as hell know that I am not.

Griffey, whatever. Sweeney sucks and should never have been on the roster.

Certainly not Sweeney.
I wish Sweeny's parents had practiced abstinence
Everyone who practices abstinence fails now and then.

That’s why it’s practice.

I practice abstinence for at least 23 hours and 45 minutes every day.
Not on any rational level, no.
I have no problem with Griffey was on the team if it was possible to keep him in the Mike Sweeney role
Or thinks that 2008 was a total disaster because of clubhouse attitude?
2008 was a total disaster because the players were bad and played bad.
2008 was a total disaster because of lack of talent and some bad luck.
No, 2008 was a disaster because the team was fucking awful.
It was a total disaster because we kept fielding a bunch of no talent assclowns
Jose Vidro batting cleanup!
And the bunt-vacuum Miguel Cairo at first base!
But he can call the pitches from the bench!
2008 was a disaster because we lost a lot.
But not enough
104!
Not quite
Also, God would it be awesome to have someone like Strasburg in the bullpen in October

(this is not a draft a closer joke)

And not quite enough.
Fucking Oakland

We’d be sitting so pretty if we had Strasburg lined up for 2010

Billy Beane is a crafty devil and played the scrubs in order to tank the series.
I believe this 100 percent
Just to clear up, I didn't mean disaster just because of bad attitudes. But I think in baseball when you come to the park bitching everyday, you're going to lose more often.
That's football you're thinking of

you know, the one where teamwork actually is really important

Again, I've never seen anyone give actual evidence of this.

The 2002 SF Giants hated each other and went to the WS.

And actually came fairly close to winning it.
BUT THEY WERE DEFEATED BY THE ANGELS' HEART AND GRIT

What now, statlovers?!

(also the Angels hit like 5000% more homeruns than in the regular season)

But smallball!

It's still a mind game. So if Manny Ramirez wants to go out there and make his team worse everyday he can do it much easier than he can make them better.

Just like a Richie Sexson can or a Scott Spezio or any pitcher who decides “screw this team, we ain’t making the playoffs, I’m going to let the other team have a field day.”

You can’t do that in football or basketball where the other guys control the game just as much.

Baseball players are way too competitive for that.
Really? All of them? Every single one? The "Black Sox" weren't to competitive for it.
The Black Sox also made no money and that was 1919.
Did you really just bring up a team that played 90 years ago?
When you're referencing the 1919 Chicago White Sox in order to prove your point your point sucks.
That's a really bad argument.

Firstly, that was 1919. Secondly, the Black Sox happened because baseball was essentially a slave trade back then and Charlie Comiskey was one of the most miserly owners in baseball. The players were paid very little and had no incentive to win.

Also, that team hated each other and had the best record in the league
They were competitive

but they played a million years ago, made no money, and wanted to stick it to their owner

Intentionally losing and bad clubhouse karma are really, really different things
Richie Sexson did not give up on the team. He just got really bad.
Stop believing the bullshit the media crams down your throat
I didn't claim any of what I said to be true, I'm just saying names that some people have mentioned before.
But you claim to believe it.
We sucked because we're terrible on leap years
Our longest playoff run was in a leap year
God dammit I forgot about the divisible by 400 rule :(
I believe that it has and does happen, but I am not saying that those three guys ever did.
Why? Why do you believe this?
We've had what 3 or 4 guys at least go on the DL because of psychological problems. Some of the players in baseball are crammed with steroids. There are 25 players playing for 30 teams and we're supposed to believe that none of them has ever decided to

have a bad day?

By "we" I mean MLB and that's for the 2009 season.
There's a difference between having a bad day and intentionally tanking.
I don't even remember what the point of this was
Yeah, because a guy wakes up and thinks

“hey, you know what, I just don’t give a fuck today, and when people find out, I’ll lose my multi-million dollar job forever.”

Obviously there's no way to find out.
So why spend time and energy giving a shit?
Then stop putting forth the proposition that it's true.
Those 'psychological problems' are 'teams getting rid of shitty players'
Maybe some, but what about Greinke?
Yeah, but a situation where a guy has a diagnosable medical disorder

is completely different than “hey this team’s psyche is messed up because player x won’t go out for drinks after the game with his teammates”

Joey Votto is shitty?
I dunno, I think Dontrelle might have lost it.
By 'it' you mean 'the ability to pitch'
If I became terrible at my job all of a sudden I'd probably go a bit nutty.
It wasn't really all of a sudden
It probably was in his mind though.
Can you point to a single documented piece of evidence that

supports that any player in recent history decided to perform worse than he could because he hated his teammates or some shit?

Can you give any evidence that it's impossible for a player to not try hard on a given day?

Or we’re supposed to believe that BASEBALL PLAYERS play the game completely pure?

The burden of proof is not on me. It's on you.
Or more generally, burden of proof lies on the person making the unconventional argument
You don't need burden of proof for an opinion, as I've been saying that's what this is the whole time.
But if you argue that opinion with others, you need to back it up.
Unless you're just saying

“I think this, even though I have no good reason to do so.” In which case we’ll hopefully just ignore something so insubstantial, unless it’s really stupid.

Otherwise your opinion will be dissected

contrary to popular belief, there are wrong opinions – all the ones that fly directly in the face of established evidence.

You do here.
Sorry

I figured out of all the people commenting here, one person would say “Yes, it’s possible, though we have no way of knowing for sure.”

Not just a “gang up on the new guy and don’t agree with one thing he says and hopefully he’ll leave for good” type thing.

Yeah, that's a good way to characterize this place.

Really endearing.

This is ganging up on your opinions, not ganging up on you
I also resent the idea that I need people to gang up with me if I want to be rid of someone
If you think that's what we're doing you've never seen us actually do that.

This is an environment where we’re you are expected to defend your opinions and if you can’t do that, sorry.

We are not going to be tolerant of opinions that we disagree with.

We will force you to back them up. If you cannot handle that, there are other places on the internet to hang out.

And if you can provide evidence to support your assertions, we will concede that you're probably right

it’s not a “gang up on opinions,” it’s “who can prove the strongest point?”

Well

My only point is that its f’ing retarded to think that every player in baseball is a good old boy who will do whatever it takes and give 100 percent everyday to help his team win. And that out of those guys who don’t give 100 percent, some of them will decide that the guy pitching that day is an asshole so he’s going to miss a few catches, ground into some double plays, WHATEVER.

I never thought that any one little statement I ever said would turn into a long discussion about how “Kenny Doesn’t Know Sports” Jesus, I made that name like 15 years ago, I didn’t know I’d regret it someday.

So your opinion is this

Not every player tried hard all the time.

Therefore:

Players are deliberately tanking.

My opinion

is that baseball is a team sport and it isn’t. It’s a game where players are affected by the guys around them, but at the same time, any one individual can tank it if he wants to and lose the game if he wants to. And that out of all these millionaires with major egos, I believe some don’t give a crap about winning. So if you management doesn’t “give me a new contract” or “trade me to New York” I’m going to screw us up for awhile.

These guys don’t work for the Peace Corps. They’re not heroes. They’re just baseball players.

As I said above, I find this almost impossible to believe.

It is almost impossible to make it to the major leagues and being that much of a lazy ass or a crazy person couldn’t help your chances.

Even the A's give out milos
It would be impossible to believe that Chris Woodward would do it

Because he only gets so many chances.

Yet if you’ve got talent, you’ll get as many chances as you want. Why does Sidney Ponson keep getting a job?

He won close to twenty games on year while posting a sub-4 ERA
He'd make a lot more money and find a stable job if he pitched better.
You keep changing the argument.
Even the laziest guys (like Yuni) must work at least 55-60 hours a week at baseball on top of all the travelling.
"These guys don’t work for the Peace Corps. They’re not heroes."

This is a fairly ridiculous strawman.

If a player is deliberately tanking, it’s pretty easy to isolate his performance and remove him from the team. Ergo, it makes no sense for a player to tank unless he’s absolutely crazy and has no intention of continuing his baseball career.

Also just apply Occam's Razor here
Do you believe that the Reds hitters were trying as hard to get in a hit in the ninth inning yesterday as they would be if the score was 1-0?
This has nothing to do with anything
That's not tanking.
Their average OPS when down by 21 runs in the 9th is higher than when down by 1 so I'll go with yes
Facing shittier pitchers at that point!

But you knew that. Still had to say it.

Or if we assume that they no longer gave a shit we can use this as an example of talent trumping effort
And going back to my original comment about the 2008 Mariners..

is that July was like them being down 21 runs. they didn’t give a shit, they tanked it. They didn’t play up to their talent level, even if they weren’t all that talented to begin with, player play up to the level of talent around them and also play down to the level of talent around them.

Russell Branyan is surrounded by offensive retards and he's dominating.

Rob Johnson is surrounded by people who know how to play baseball and he still isn’t good.

Russell Branyan is playing on a winning team in a pennant race.

Rob Johnson’s overall numbers aren’t good, but he’s gotten some key hits.

So if Branyan was acquired mid-season last year, the team wouldn't have gotten better, he'd have gotten worse?
Nope. He'd have done exactly the same. you're right.
Hey even more passive agression!
You appear to be confused as to how causality works
So you've gone from baseball players don't all care about winning

To baseball players on the 2008 team realised they couldn’t win and tanked.

The worst players from that team no longer have a baseball career. Assuming they’re sane and like having an income, there is no good reason for them to not play hard each day.

You're right. They all tried completely.
Stop being a baby and give people some reason to believe you.
That's not the argument

the argument is “you must be able to prove that the Mariners dogged it in 2008.”

Graham neither said they dogged it or that they tried hard, only that it was much more unlikely that they were dogging it.

So the players decided to play at less than 100% of their ability

for an entire three months of the season because the team sucked?

Is that what you are alleging? Yes or no?

Someone should have told Ichiro this in 2004.
Nope. I'm alledging that it's all about numbers. They all gave 100%.
Again, how do you know this?

They underperfomed but there were plenty of players playing for contracts, a place in next year’s lineup, pride, etc. Adrian Beltre’s numbers last year were way better after the M’s were out of it than they were early in the season. And the team also played a lot of marginal minor league players after they were no longer in contention to see if there was anything of value there.

To claim that the team tanked late in the year simply because they didn’t perform as well as expected is just absurd.

Youre right its absurd

I take every word I’ve said today back.

Give me some reason that I should believe you.
Everyone is right except me. I concede.
Seriously, be less of a fucking baby or go away.

All anyone is asking for is something tangible and instead of offering that you’re acting like a fourth grader.

Good. I am glad you finally see the massive errors in your ways.

Feel free to respond to me here if I am misrepresenting you as being 100% sincere in your above statement.

Okay then.

Whew, now we can all move on with our day.

So let me get this right

A person makes an opinion that everyone else disagrees with. That person then tries to think of ways to backup that opinion and after a few hours of not getting anywhere decides, “Okay, I’m wrong and I want to go on with my day” and before he gets a chance to explain that, you BLOCK him from lookoutlanding?

Call ME a baby? How mature is it to block a person for saying “Okay, youre right. Im wrong.”?

Hello again, friend!
Heeeeeere's KENNY!
It was the passive-agressiveness of it all

if you just accept that we’re going to rip up baseless arguments, it’s not so bad

Kick-ass screenname!
And you didn't say that you were wrong.

You were being sarcastic and passive agressive and really just a giant fucking baby about it.

Because your response was patronizing and insincere.
I like this better than passive/aggro
Because you weren't eating crow at all

You were instead taking a bunch of passive aggressive snipes at the people who were asking you to back up your arguments with sound reasoning.

Can I have the time back, please?
Were you not entertained?

Although with that time back maybe I could actually get some work done.

And to think that could have meant looking at more porn
And to think that could have meant looking at more porn
I have a headache.
If I could turn back ti-ummmmmm....
I find it impossible to believe that players tank on purpose with any regularity.
If I don't like one of my colleagues I'll just not show up to work

That’ll show them

Graham, to be fair

all the baseball players show up. What he’s arguing is that you might do badly on something that he needs your participation to complete.

Except in baseball we can measure individual performance
Right, but those measurements can't really judge intention.

I side with you – I think that to make it to that level, anyone who is less than a total professional has been weeded out.

I was just pointing out that it might not have been the best analogy.

I still think it's a fairly good one

It’s the equivalent of biting off your nose to spite your face

Especially since baseball players

that get a whiff of a reputation for dogging it suffer from it for a long time.

B.J. Upton :(
What the hell ever happened to D'Angelo Jimenez?
Pissed off LaRussa, never got another chance
But they still had to dog it at one time or another to get that reputation, so it does happen.
There's a difference between trying to lose ball games

and not sprinting hard to first on an obvious out.

How do you not get that "dogging it"

does not mean the same thing as malicious tanking? This boggles my mind that you equate the two.

I don't equate the two. You made a comment about dogging it. I replied.
By connecting it to your previous statements about

players intentionally missing catches.

The 08 Mariners dogged it.
No, they sucked.
The 2008 Mariners were talentless hacks.
And quite unlucky on top of that.
Unlike a sport like basketball or soccer, maximum physical/cardiovascular effort does very little to help teams win in baseball.

You should run hard on ground balls, but it makes very little difference in the end.

Yes

But in both cases of baseball vs. work, not showing up is much more obvious to the outsider than screwing something up “on accident.”

Anyway, we’re just arguing semantics and agree on the main point of the argument.

But actively doing no work on a project is less obvious than being a bad baseball player
July 2, 2009 was not 15 years ago.

I’m worried about your perception of time. Perhaps it could imply some other issues you might want to get checked out.

Umm, I didn't just choose the name when I signed up for LL. Its from yahoo.
Well that explains everything.
All I did was the first time I wanted to make a comment, they made me click a few buttons. I never entered any information.
In my opinion, the sky is green.

I don’t need to prove it, it’s an opinion.

This sounds like something Calvin in Calvin in Hobbes would run with.
The atmosphere could be construed as a slight blue-green
Accusing players of tanking is not an opinion.
Can we just skip ahead to the part where we conclude that we can't measure chemistry?
I think it's time to replace 'chemistry' with a different word
Boy they have great clubhouse physics
Their Tickle+ is 126!
I think that it's impossible to measure chemistry in any meaningful way

and we should stop counting it until something useful is discovered.

Dude you totally can.

You're arguing a positive

You’re the one who has to prove it

I think only having three players worth a damn on the 25 man by the end of April probably has more to do with losing games
Which leads to pissed-off players looking for something (someone) to blame.
So is this the comment that started the whole subthread?
You have to evaluate players as a total package.

What they provide on offense, defense, on the payroll and in opportunity cost.

Phrases like “10-15 home runs” tell a misleading part of the story.

From Matthew's post below:
Based on UZR samples, We’d expect Langerhans to be ~31 runs better per 150 games. Or about 15 runs better for the remaining half-season.

Dye’s offense would be about 10 runs better in a neutral park. But Safeco is not even close to neutral and would shrink that 10 runs to five at the most.

Assuming that playoff experience has any value at all do you think it will make up the ~10 run gap between Langerhans and Dye, not to mention the salary and trade costs?

The problem with Dye is that he is an awful, awful defensive player

he plays in a bandbox in Chicago, and is right-handed, a poor fit for Safeco Field. Also, he has a huge monetary and prospect price tag, and the upgrade he would provide over even Griffey (seriously) would be so marginal as to not be worth it.

The team would be much better off upgrading at catcher or shortstop with a longer-term or cheaper solution than Jermaine Dye.

All of them

Though Galaragga is having a crappy season

You gotta be kidding me with Joe Saunders. He has one good season and now we're to believe he's that good?
He's not great, but Washburn hasn't been legitimately good since the Angels won the WS
He's not very good either but Washburn is a little bit worse
The point isn't that Saunders is good, it's that Washburn isn't terribly good either
Is it remotely possible that Wash has actually "figured something out"?

Or do his age and career stats make a regression inevitable. This would seem to preclude the Jamie Moyers and Tim Wakefields of the world, rare as they are.

Washburn's improvement this year appears to be courtesy of Gutierrez and Chavez
But like I was pointing out with Millwood, as long as he's a Mariner, the defense comes with him

and thus he can be an effective pitcher for us.

That's a really circumspect way to talk about players.

Best to only deal with the areas they control.

Yeah, I know, in terms of evaluating Washburn, he hasn't been great

I guess I’m just saying that as long as he’s a Mariner, we can expect him to outperform his peripherals due to the defense.

It’s not that he’s better or anything, but as long as we’re evaluating the Mariners as a whole, Washburn + defense can be an effective combination for us.

ERA is not a measure of pitcher performance
I know, I'm saying that I'm not evaluating him individually since all the metric(s) that matter say he's been average to bad

but that he’s useful as long as he has a defense with him, which he does now.

But that's the defense being useful, not Washburn.
Agreed

I guess what I should have said is that with a useful defense, Jarrod Washburn isn’t that big of a liability to the team’s chances to win as a whole.

An important distinction

I still will be happy if we move Wash for something short- and long-term useful, but as we stay in race, it seems less and less likely that Z would pull the trigger.

There are moves we could make with Wash that would help the team win this year
Agreed, but:

I think Z and any other GM tends to shy away from trading a central role player (mid-rotation starter) in the thick of a pennant chase, and gravitates towards trading prospects for somebody that improves the team without disrupting its current success.

We don't really have any idea what Z's going to do

I don’t think anything’s off the table at this point.

Lord knows he's bestowed us with wonderful surprises before
You might be surprised.
But the point is that any pitcher you bring in gets that same advantage.
But anyone + our defense would be a good combo.
Not pitchers who give up a lot of HR.
Hmmm. Not really sure...

Our infield defense is way worse than our OF defense. A flyball-tending pitcher would probably fare equally well with another flyballer, but comparing a groundballer to a flyballer you might lose a little bit there.

Except Yuni’s on the DL and that helps the IF defense, so…

But Beltre's out and that hurts it

Left-handed flyballers are perfect for our current roster and park

This is what I was trying to say in the first place =(
Hey I was just talking about this last night.

I need to dump the decimal point and go with Kermit Knows Baseball, and Shit.

But if other teams think he is better than he is you can get something that makes the team better than it is with him on it.
But the defence has nothing to do with his pitching so how does that make him an effective pitcher?
Well he's been effective due to the defense, since he's a flyball guy

not that he’s been good, but in circumstance, he’s useful to this particular team.

He does appear to have figured something out

but he is still not very useful. He has just managed to be as valuable as 2006 Jarrod Washburn

105 innings is still 105 innings. Yes, defense is a big part to it but even then you can't guarantee that another starter in his place will be as good just because of defense.
You can't guarantee anything but you can make educated guesses.
You seem to be evaluating pitchers based on ERA.

Otherwise, I do not know why you mention the defense.

Because EVERYBODY here is mentioning defense? did I say ERA? I feel like people are trying to push me to numbers that they think I would use because they have no value to people around here and therefore - I'm an idiot.
I think we're having an entirely different discussion in this subthread

and that’s whether or not we should say Washburn is useful or that he’s a good fit for our roster.

Also, we seem to have found a consensus.

Best not to wear your heart on your sleeve in these parts

Your point will be torn limb-from-limb, but that’s just the process. Don’t take it personally.

A consistent frontline starter seems pretty useful to me

Just seems like all we talk about is his performance relative to trade value, meanwhile the M’s are in the thick of the pennant race despite Bedard, Morrow, etc.

2006 Jarrod Washburn was not a front line starter.

He was slightly below average.

Again, he's not a frontline starter

He’s a #4 in a park suited for him with an all-world outfield behind him

This I will concede
Mariners-Washburn+capable SS+no more Woodward=better.
I think I heard you on KJR or ESPN radio the other day.
I've decieded that I will now start calling Softy to reap praise on Bavasi for building the majority of this team and being forced out a year too early.
He's the underappreciated hero in all this.
I can't wait for TBS to interview him during the WS
Why would TBS be interviewing him during the World Series if it is going to be played on Fox?
Weeg's Championship Series
Fox could interview the dingle berries hanging from Buzzie Bavasi's long forgotten black asshole

And as long as the Mariners were playing the in the WS, I would deep throat the rabbit ears on the back of the TV during it.

Just remember to get a converter box
I had a customer the other week that told me to complain until I got them to turn back on the analog signal
Is this the first time you have written your [zomg forbidden]?
How fucking retarded do you have to be to blame the global digital switchover on a lowly Radio Shack employee.
40 years old retarded?
Actually, most people are shocked my new tv can pick up over the air signals

and assume the switchover means the end of non-cable television so I do not know.

He and Chuck LaMar should form a splinter group
Random poll of LL

we win the World Series this year and Erik Bedard is the key, as well as the rest of the playoffs, pitching three great games for us. He then leaves for Type-B compensation. Adam Jones ends up in the Hall of Fame.

Worth it?

Easily.
Amended: Tillman and Jones both end up in the HoF, and I'm still happy with the trade.
Always.

Flags fly forever.

Worth it if Erik Bedard never throws another pitch because you can
eek

’t have both Jones and GMZ

No because the thought process was still retarded and it's impossible to know what happens if we don't get Bedard.
While I agree that I'll be forever angry at the thought process, the goal afterall is to compete and win.

I wouldn’t forgive the move, but I’d be OK with the outcome that came as a result of the firing of Bavasi and the Putz trade and everything else that cascaded.

It wasn't it worth it because it caused me a tremendous amount if misery

and if we win the WS this year I am not willing to say it’s because we have Erik Bedard.

You absolutely can't give the credit to the Bedard move.

It’s also hard to say if that move was the final nail in the coffin for Bavasi.

But if any of those contributed and led to rings and the GMZ era, beautiful.
Not defending the thought process, but the question is more "is it worth it to you to give up an eventual HOF-er plus more for a single World Championship?"
If we are living in a universe where you can irrefutably say that Bedard is the only reason we were able to win the WS, then yes, it was probably worth it.

But I don’t think he would be and such a world does not exist.

Adam who?

I never thought I’d say this, but Gutierrez has helped me forget him. I still think Jones will be the better player over the length of their careers, but the pain is muted. I’ll take the World Series ring.

In a freaking heartbeat.
I remember people saying that about the Angels and Bavasi when the Mariners hired him!
Oh man oh man.

Washburn has gotten good results largely because of defense and luck. His defense independent numbers aren’t good.

OPS isn’t really all that great of a stat in terms of overall offensive evaluation, but he has hit fairly well you’re correct. The problem is that he gives a ton of that value back on defense. Endy Chavez has been worth nearly as many wins as Dye and he’s played far, far less.

And you obviously don’t understand how important it is to have young, cheap players on club control.

His FIP is under 4. Better than most major leaguers.
His tRA is 5.16, which is below the league average for starters
While it's good that you're using FIP instead of ERA,

FIP has a big problem in that it completely ignores batted ball profiles. Now that we have reasonable play-by-play data, we should use that information to help us evaluate pitchers better, and this is what tRA does.

This year, Washburn’s batted ball profile hasn’t been good, and he’s been lucky on HR/FB ratio. These are things that make him look good by FIP, but not by tRA, which is the superior metric at this point.

If I might

Statements like

He’s got better numbers and is really pitching better than any of them.

Don’t really carry a lot of weight around here unless you actually cite the numbers. And by “numbers”, also understand that some nymbers are more valuable than others. And when you ask questions like

Tell me which teams #3 pitcher is better than Washburn?

You’ll get a lot of answers, because there are a lot of answers. And they’re all correct. In short, this is not a place where you can pull up a stool, outshout your neighbor, and expect to last – this place is serious about its stats, and about interpreting them correctly.

And also, RE: prospects that never panned out:

Adam Jones, Asbrubal Cabrera, Shin Soo Choo, Kameron Mickolio, and a bunch of other dudes we traded away for garbage.

The Choo trade was defensible but God damn it honks he off
I had no problem with the Choo trade because it didn't look like he would become the player he has and we got something we needed

but the point remains that he was a prospect that panned out.

Too bad Ben Broussard was a total fag
Just curious, but why did Choo look like a likely bust in 2006?

His minor league track record was one of consistent .850ish OPS, lots of stolen bases, had a reasonable K-rate, and he was only 23. Was his defense scouted as being terrible?

Couldn't field in center, didn't hit enough for a corner

really bad splits.

Good call. I forgot about the splits.
The Rafael Soriano trade pissed me off the most
The Cabrera trade was the worst in retrospect in terms of value.

But yes, the Soriano trade pisses me off more.

The Doyle trade is the angriest that I've ever been at a sports transaction
I was not talking about player value, just outrage

Soriano for Ho-ram. Grrrr

I still moan every time I see Varitek in a Boston uniform

Lowe and Varitek for Heathcliff Slocumb. Arrrrrrrrgh

GOOD GRAVY WHAT THE HELL REY QUINONES!!!!
I like to think of that trade as "Lowe, Varitek, and Bragg for Slocumb and Moyer"

Obviously it didn’t actually happen that way, but it does make me feel better.

Yeah, or Slocumb for Bragg

And Lowe/Tek for Moyer…

But still, even if you consider a HUGE blockbuster:

Putz, Green, Reed, Valbuena, Tillman, Butler, Sherrill, Jones and Morse,

for

Gutz, Cleto, Carp, Vargas, Cabrera, Olson, Chavez, Cedeno, Bedard, and Langerhans

I’m not sure the balance has swayed back yet. Need to trade Washburn for someone shiny to yin that yang.

Im not talking about the ones we traded away, I'm talking about all the ones we didn't. and then they wind up like Lastings Milledge or Pokey Reese - being let go for practically nothing when their original teams could've gotten a lot in return for them.

Not realizing that sometimes a players peak value is when they’re in the minors.

Top prospects pan out much more often then they do not

And when you trade them away, you open your team up to the possibility a 2004-2008 style spell where the well goes dry.

Seriously, good young players are the most valuable asset in baseball.

Your point is that we should trade our prospects for veterans because they never pan out, correct?

My point is that we’ve had plenty of prospects turn into useful players, but we don’t have them any more because we traded them for veterans.

Seriously, look at the rest of the league and the teams that have had lon, sustained periods of success. Throw out the Yankees and Red Sox for payroll reasons (although the Red Sox have plenty of their former prospects in their everyday lineup) and the common thread is that they have very rarely traded their most valuable prospects for veterans and have done an excellent job of building around cost controlled players. That is how you stay good.

I bet the wish they had a do over on the Hanley trade
I would imagine so, yes.
On the other hand, Beckett was key in 2007.
True, on the other hand

Hanley would be the best player in the league

World Series Win>>Unknown.

Obviously in terms of cost and WAR and talent and things like that it was a poor trade. But I would trade our entire farm system for a WS if it were possible.

That is the reason everyone plays the game. That, and millions of dollars.

I'd rather be the Braves than the Marlins
Agreed.

But the Braves won in 1995. If you offered me 12 straight AL West titles but no WS wins or 14 years in which we made the playoffs 1 time and won the WS, I would probably take the WS title. If you think about it, we’ve already had 7 straight years without a playoff game. And the fact that we have never even made a WS while I’ve seen the Yankees win 4 right in front of me makes me yearn for that special and glorious day when Ichior and Felix get to hold up the World Series trophy.

I think we've had this thread before

but I would rather be good for a long time and never win the WS than win one WS and suck balls the rest of the time.

Yeah, it's a tough question.

Honestly I’m just pumped that we might get meaningful September baseball again. Hopefully it’s not like 2007.

And maybe this is the beginning of a period in which we’re good every year AND win the WS a couple times. Yeah, that sounds good

I'd rather have 116 than a World Series
I feel this way now but I didn't in November of 2001
Jeff nailed it earlier during ST

You win a championship and you’re happy for one month? two? And then the process starts over again. A championship should be the goal, but it’s not worth selling your soul for because then what? There’s still baseball to be played.

Well yeah but Goddammit do I want to win a WS
I remain unconvinced of this

I think it becomes a diminishing returns situation.

The first one you win is worth whatever it takes to get it – NCAA scandals, trading HOF players, selling your would, etc.

After that, you want to be successful for a long period of time because you’ve already been to the top and now you want to stay there as long as possible.

That’s how I look at it, at least. I’m still waiting for one of the four teams I care about to win it all.

I felt this way until the Seahawks lost the Super Bowl.

Yeah, it still hurts to think about it, but life goes on. 2008 was the worst experience of my life as a sports fan, and I’m not sure anything is worth that.

I think I'm just weird because I wanted a piece of the Mets more than anything
Same goes for the Yankees

The better win the division and not the WC, because I want to clinch on their field

Absolutely not

I want our first pennant to be clinched at home.

Says the person who lives in Seattle

You can’t see the other fans cry if you are at home

Yes you do
Taking the castle is more fun

Plus you can still win the WS at home

Maybe it's because I've never had a team win on the road

But I’ve been part of two championship celebrations and the emotion that I got from being there is more addicting than any drug. It’s the single thing that I work for as a sports fan.

That and some sweet Felix-lovin'.
AC baiting!
Puppies can't be expected to understand grammar.
The point is just because Poochie lives in Spokane doesn't mean the greatest day of our lives needs to be dampened
when have I ever revealed my location?
When you debated the merits of Spokane with me a couple weeks back.
I never did such a thing
Oh

Really

Oh gosh how could I have forgotten
Wow, this totally should have read "selling your *soul*"
Agreed.

I feel weird because technically I have seen my teams win 6 titles in my lifetime (Broncos 97-98, Lakers 00-02, 09), but I don’t count any of them except for ‘09. I was 8 years old when the Broncos first won; I had no idea what it really meant. And I liked the Lakers but didn’t really follow basketball until I went to Villanova and started really watching it. Even with the 1 title I know I’m luckier than most people. But what I want to see more than anything (other than a Nova NCAA title while I’m still there) is a Mariners or Flyers championship because both teams have suffered such long droughts and have come ohsoclose so many times.

Watching the Phillies win the WS last year was really weird. I was rooting for them (I love the Rays but a family friend in a minority owner of the Phils so wooo! free tix) and I was happy they won, but watching all the Phillie fans go wild made me extremely jealous. I cannot wait for the day when we’re in the WS and I spend all the money to my name to come to Seattle for Game 7 (Felix vs. Pineiro) and party in the streets for 4 days.

If we face Pineiro in game 7 we will probably lose as he is a ridiculously good right handed ground ball pitcher
I was at the game against the Mets with the 22 GB outs.

 I have never seen anything like that before and likely never will again.

First 20 batters: 1 K, 1 pop out, 18 groundballs

I love him.
It's like

would you rather be a fan of Miami or Ohio State this decade?

OSU has been consistently awesome in the regular season, lucked their way to 1 championship and lucked their way to 2 other championship games in which they got pasted.

Miami had two decent years, won a championship against a team that didn’t deserve to be there and got jobbed out of another, and then fell off the map.

Also NCAA death penalties

were not worth a couple of trips to the Sweet 16 :(

I think that's a good example had they won it all the year they had Mayo

is it worth it to win a national title if you know you’re getting sanctioned afterwards? (let’s pretend in this world they got to keep the title).

So since usc has already won in football, would it worth it to you now to get sanctioned in football in exchange for another one?

If we had won the title in 2008 I would have taken Derrick Rose's SAT
Although that's somewhat of a rocky example, as both teams in question got 1 championship.
How about Tennessee then?

They won the first BCS title 11 years ago and haven’t done shit nationally since.

That's a good one example.
Being Tennessee is fate worse than death.

Nothing sucks like the Big Orange.

Miami because fuck OSU

Also the players were much better pros and in most cases way more talented.

Andy Randy Shannon has the program on a rebound

Also

Miami had better than 2 decent years. They were really good in ‘00, one of the better teams of all-time in ’01, great in ’02, and then were good in ’03 before dropping to decent in ’04/’05.

From ’00 to ’03, they were 46-4, with their worst record being 11-2. That was an amazing run.

11-2 is a bad season in college football
Only for the elites.
And?

Where I went to school 11-2 is most likely a failed season.

Yeah, but you pay your players and don't care if they can't read or write.
Our all american offensive lineman

is getting an MBA!

SSS
Don't make me dig up NCAA academic progress records
Also

Reggie Bush is the only player with evidence of taking money and he didn’t take it from anyone connected to the university.

As for basketball, I don’t see how we are any less shady or ambivalent about learning than any other school in the country.

Davon Jefferson comes to mind
Football and basketball are different things!

Everyone is cheating in hoops. It’s the only way to keep the kids from going pro!

I'm not saying everyone isn't cheating in hoops

just that Davon Jefferson is a particularly egregious example of a guy who should have never been in college in the first place.

Renardo Sidney also comes to mind

I know my alma mater wasn't cheating at bball recruiting

because most of our team was Croatian and terrible.

I don't disagree

I wasn’t broken up about losing Sidney the guy had trouble written all over him.

Davon Jefferson comes to mind
He comes to mind an awful lot
I really don't know why I keep double posting, but it's getting frustrating
Wow, two Davon Jeffersons at the same school?

What a coincidence.

Somebody in LA go and give SB a shove to make him stop skipping.
Or wait, is he still up here?
I'm not telling anyone =(
You hated us in person. I knew it.
Eh, it was a disappointment compared to the previous seasons,

but 11-2 with an Orange Bowl win is pretty good.

I wouldn’t call it a great season, but it was a very good one

I'm not being serious.
I figured, however

that season was a huge disappointment for the U. It’s ridiculous looking back after 3 bad years, but people were very upset that that team lost any games.

That's how it is at a football factory

I started at USC in 01 when people were glad to be rid of He Who Can’t be Named and have a winning season.

It didn’t take long for the old sense of entitlement to creep up as soon as they had one undefeated season.

The reality is that it’s hard to actually go undefeated every year.

It's like Yankees fans in 2003.

Making the World Series and losing was a failure as a season.

For comparison, if we are within 3 games of a playoff spot in mid-September, I will consider this season an unquestionable success. However, if the Lakers do not make the Western Finals next year I will be disappointed.

One title isn't worth a Pirates' style tenure of misery

My whole point is that they would have been better with Hanley then they would with Beckett not only that season, but several years after. The fact that they won with worse players is irrelevant

I actually love prospects and minor leaguers as much as I love anything in baseball.

I obsess over our farm and I pray that in a couple of years Jack builds us one like Texas or Tampa Bay has now.

But I also look over at our neighbors in the division, the Angels, and thank god that they held onto Brandon Wood as long as they have and didn’t move him and some of their other guys when they had the chance.

I just don’t want any of our guys to turn out to be the next Felix Pie or in our case Balantien. i trust that Jack knows talent, I’m not worried about it.

You're selectively taking prospects who didn't pan out though

That’s a weird way to make an argument that trading for veterans is a good idea, just like it’d be dumb of me to say that prospects always pan out and you should never consider trading them away

And then we can trade Jones and Tillman for Erik Bedard
Jah.

Tillman had a high ERA in High Desert, and Jones struggled when we occasionally gave him ABs during his 2007 call-up. Trading them for Bedard is a steal, because we all know that if you want to be a good playoff team, you need at least two aces in the rotation – that’s why we failed earlier this decade.

No if you want a good team you need to draft a lot of closers

because it shortens the game!

I know this isn't how it works but I am able to handle the Bedard trade if I look at it as

Adam Jones and Chris Tillman for a shot at the 09 playoffs and Z’s new regime

Actually that's the best way to look at things.
Probably better than imagining a Jones/Gutz/Ichiro outfield.
Much better
Whatever. We have Langerhans now.

I already like him better than Adam Jones.

The moment Safeco starts selling Langerhans jersey-style t-shirts

is the moment I’m out $25. Thank you, Washington Nationals.

You can have one made you know.
Custom jerseys are more expensive
It's an extra $5
Not bad.

Thanks for the tip.

The name and number is white instead of pretty sparkly silver though
Extra $35 for my Lopez jersey =(
That's a WTF tax
Yeah, their thinking, "If this guy is this dumb, let's see if wek can squeez a few more bucks out of him."
I'm just talking about the t-shirt ones
A t-shirt one?
Never mind I see above.
Racist
I know you meant it as a joke.

But that comment immediately took me back to one of my favorite threads of the year.

Link it.
I'll spend five minutes trying to find it. Let's see...
Yes!

Found it.

Thank you.
And for the work you get a "Katal is pimp shit".
Awesome, I was just thinking about this thread this morning
If Dye plays the outfield in Safeco, we can say farewell to our pitchers' confidence.

He’s still hitting, but he’s a mess with the glove. I’m inclined to think Langerhans would be more valuable for the rest of the season.

Dye was projected to be worth less than a win when the season started
Everyone preaches about sample sizes.

Yet we’re supposed to believe that Langerhans won’t regress to his career .233 ba?

Not necessarily, but BA is a bad stat and defense is valuable.
He probably will

But he’s +30 better on defense

Pretty close estimate there.

Based on UZR samples, We’d expect Langerhans to be ~31 runs better per 150 games. Or about 15 runs better for the remaining half-season.

Dye’s offense would be about 10 runs better in a neutral park. But Safeco is not even close to neutral and would shrink that 10 runs to five at the most.

Langerhans is the better player and that is not even getting into the fact of salary and that we already have Langerhans on our team now.

I was just going off the top of my head, but I do get confused w/r/t park effects
Look. I regret throwing any name out there to begin with. Jermaine Dye especially.

My point was now is the time to go for it. All that anyone in Seattle has talked about is “if we’re making a trade, it’s going to involve our starting pitching” and nobody has addressed that if we are buyers we do actually have to move some of our prospects down on the farm. At least not from what I’ve read. And I’m saying that we need to find a SS or someone who’s going to at least come close to what Branyan is doing. Branyan is going to start approaching his career high in at-bats and games by August/September and nobody has really acknowledged that he COULD get tired. And if we lose Branyan, it’s over.

Again. You are simply looking at it from an offensive point of view.

That’s wrong. And there’s no telling what we would have to move to get people.

Branyan has played full seasons in the minors, so that's not a concern

We’re not saying we shouldn’t try and “go for it”, we’re just saying that Dye would be a piss poor trade target

I think that selling any key part of the future for success this year is a terrible idea.

I’m fine with trading role players or guys that don’t have a real place in the organization or whatever, but the idea that you have to go for it and dump your young players to compete is what got us into this mess in the first place.

Probably will

But hitting for average is not as important as OBP or slugging, both of which he is fairly good at. And he is pretty good at defense.

Jermaine Dye isn't good

He isn’t. That’s all there is to it. Jermaine Dye would not be of realistic help to this baseball team.

I'd absolutely put my money on Langerhans
Yeah, Dye has wOBA.380+ to be just a 3 win player
Dye would be near replacement level in Safeco
Not to jump on the pile

but the whole “a Jermaine Dye, a Jack Wilson” thing is the most annoying trend sports talk radio has ever created.

Just say “Jermaine Dye” or “Jack Wilson”. There is only one. Plus, hey, less typing!

Dave Sims looks like that guy in high school that didn't go to parties or talk to girls but knew how to juggle really well.
OMG he's Patrick Dempsey!!!!
Why does my C and my Z keep taking me back to that twitter button?
On desktop or mobile?

My desktop works fine. This is gonna sound stupid, but maybe click in the whitespace somewhere and then try C or Z – it could be that the focus is on the twitter button or something if you used it before. But that’s just a guess.

Desktop and it seems to be fine now. I shut the window.
Mine started doing that, so I finally closed out the browser and signed back in again
A game summary has 400+ comments?

Well either somebody said something stupid, or a major roster move just went down.

Only one way to find out!
Guess which one it was!
Whatever.

My comment was that the M’s have a good rotation for the playoffs and should make some moves by moving some minor league talent for some major league talent. SO SORRY.

"SO SORRY."

Act more like a child throwing a passive-aggressive tantrum. Really, do it.

I love love love these summaries, they are full of awesome stats and make me laugh,

but after reading the entire thing, the only thing I can think of is how fucking funny that picture of Dave is. I laughed out loud for a good 2 minutes.

And also that big subthread has about 5 comments that should be up for best comment ever, ever.

Oh, and Langerhans is awesome. That is all.

I really want to read

but so afraid!

It's not worth it
I came off looking pretty smart.
Something Graham said above made me think

Of this article by Jeff at the beginning of the season. So Jeff, do you think you undervalued how good our outfield defense would be, or is it largely luck?

I think Jeff projecting a +40 outfield of Endy/Gutz/Ichiro was a touch conservative but pretty much spot on (they've been about Endy +20, Gutz +20, and Ichiro + 10 = +50) (and +40 with Langerhans, who's probably a +10 LF) instead of Endy)

Or do you mean he underestimated how much the D would help Washburn?

He assumed an even distribution of how the outfield would help/had hurt Washburn in 09/08

That obviously hasn’t really been the case

He seems to have been helped a ton by Gutz.
I'm thinking luck

Washburn has clearly benefited more than the rest of the staff. Plus, the defense isn’t the only reason his ERA is so good.

Strikeouts are up, for one.
He's been a little better too, but luck is a big part of it
ALW not as good at hitting as they used to be?
K's up, BB's down, other, non-defense related luck
Yeah, rereading your post it really does appear that much that had to go right has.
Well this thread took a turn for the stupid
Washburn will be on 710 shortly

Maybe he’ll talk about The Dolphin.

That's got to be the gayest name for a pitch ever.
That is the worst name for a pitch ever
That is the worst name for a pitch ever
You've suddenly developed an echo
Should I assume SBN is screwing up or that SB is screwing up

Oh the dilemma

I hate you
And yet I rec'd it anyway
Hate recs are the best.
Agreed.
My humpty dumpty gif got disappeared.

Sadface.

Good. You should punch yourself in the throat for even considering posting that
It looked like a clown
But it wasn't a clown, so that puts us at level 0.
Cedeno!
Oh wait that's the wrong end of the spectrum
But it looked like a clown
No way, really? Does my hate rec go with it?
I hate the Dolphin on principle. I will hate it until he calls it something tough or wizardy.
EXCALIBUR
YES
That's so freaking phallic, give me a break already.

How about we just call it the Lexington Steele

Oh man.
Excalibur is better, I'm just having a bit of fun at your expense
If you're going to call a pitch The Dolphin it better at least do flips and shit
And taste good over rice
I like that Greg Johns hears about The Dolphin and writes about fish.
The Dolphin registered zero swinging strikes
You'd have to be retarded to miss hitting a dolphin with a baseball bat

They’re huge and will come right up to you.

Any way to tell if it helped his high fastball?
Well he nearly threw a perfect game
It's always results with you, isn't it?
Hey wait a second, is that results based analysis?
Two missed bats!
And like 6 line drives and 3 deep Fliners!
I'm just amazed the O's fouled off all the pitches in the middle of the plate.

I’ve never scanned a game using gameday before, so it’s an odd perspective to me. He really was hitting the bottom of the zone pretty well, and going to both sides of the plate. Also, I couldn’t believe that 5 pitch 7th inning.

At least his location was awesome
Safeco field IS a good place to pitch.
I already made this joke in my head so LATE
I was wondering about that.

I knew he threw it for a ton of called strikes but couldn’t remember any swinging. Thanks for confirming that.

It will be interesting to see if he keeps trying to use it, and if people start to hit it.

Arguing with someone who knows nothing about baseball thread pt.2
Which is fine as long as said person is at least open-minded and not stubborn to the point of ignorance
Im open-minded. I just don't have numbers to back it up like everyone else and I admit that. It was an opinion that's not measurable in numbers. I should've known before I started it was a stupid argument to start.

But blocking a person for that is ridiculous.

The problem was the passive-agressiveness.

Seriously.

Bring it up privately with J/M/G please

You were banned. If you don’t understand why, email the mods using the contact links below. Please don’t do this.

You were banned because you were acting like a whiny little retard despite everyone else being accomodating
How did I miss a great Twilight reference from joof in yesterday's gamethread?

retroactive rec

EVERYBODY SHUT UP
You just need to get SBN to pay you by the comment.
Is it safe yet? I was really happy about Washburns game last night, it's fun to share that kind of stuff
Apparently, Rick Adair made a suggestion that successfully tweaked Washburn's pre-pitch mechanics
I'm not making this up, you know.
Somebody please start an OFFTOP for today
But the offtops are the gross 1-star motels of LL.
Because this has clearly been the Ritz-Carlton Resort
Bet you never thought you'd use that phrase
And yet here I am

Fuck me.

This story belongs on FML
"I just purchased a customized Jose Lopez jersey. FML"
Only if they trade him!

or if his parents have another child =(

Any takers yet?
By all means it's yours, go nuts
Acblue is clutch

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/7/7/941039/offtop-07-07-09-keep-me

I meant the fuck me part.
Wow you must have a very open relationship.
What the hell, I don't even know what is going on anymore
And the world turns upside down.
Eh, it's already happened this season.

GO ANGELS

I meant it at the time
Let the record show that the Angels lost to the Mariners that day
God every team you root for sucks.
GO ANGELS
I wonder if my heart has to be in it for this to work
I guess we'll find out tonight.

A sample size of two is good enough.

The Universe does not take kindly to reverse-jinxing
Has anyone considered Jarrod Washburn might be on steroids?
He does seem angrier than usual
He named a pitch "Flipper"

how angry can he possibly be?

No he named it the Dolphin.

Rob Johnson thought it would be cool to name it Flipper.

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