Yesterday's Ninth Inning:
Fly ball
Walk
Line drive
Okay, yeah, that is not good, but still no runs had scored. Bases were loaded, nobody out and here is what happened next:
Ground ball
Ground ball
Ground ball
Ground ball
(Pick off)
Ground ball
Line drive
Ground ball
Based on the linear weights of these individual events, the expected total outcomes of this string would be 1.6 runs and 7.3 outs. Instead we got five runs and three outs.
Bad luck.
1 recs | 24 comments
Thank you for putting some intelligence behind what I've been saying all along
calim - July 9, 2009
Now that we got that regression adjustment out of our system we can revert back to being awesome against against first place Texas.
Poochie - July 9, 2009
Bad Luck or Bad Defense?
InSpokane - July 9, 2009
Both, I would think
appleshampoo - July 9, 2009
As I posted on Morsels...
Also:
.jpg)
and
(click for full-size)
PositivePaul - July 9, 2009
Is it truly bad luck? Where do the errors factor in?
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 9, 2009
The errors were awful, but also just really poorly timed
Lopez being a bad second baseman and Woodward being worse than Beltre – that’s nothing new.
Jeff Sullivan - July 9, 2009
Bad luck for Aardsma
so he’s not going to blow every three run lead we have the rest of the year. This wasn’t anything like the walk-filled meltdown he had against the Angels.
Craig Powers - July 9, 2009 via mobile
Well, yes, I realize it was bad luck for Aardsma.
I was trying to get clarification on if he thought the errors were really errors or more bad luck.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 9, 2009
It still really sucked
seattlebruin - July 9, 2009
Yep. No matter how slice it. It really sucked.
InSpokane - July 9, 2009
I seemed to handle it better than I normally would have,
but I think that was because I was at work watching on gametracker and swearing out loud might have given away the fact that I wasn’t doing anything useful.
Craig Powers - July 9, 2009
Yeah. I was in the field office with three people who work for me, and I almost freaked out on an intern and two lowly field staff who were already in a little trouble.
InSpokane - July 9, 2009
Maybe I'm a pessimist, but I see this as less than reassuring.
Here’s my train of thought:
After loading the bases the pitching staff got (mostly) ground balls.
Ground balls are (normally) good things for the defense.
Therefore, the pitching was fine.
The problem is that the infield defense wasn’t fine. If it was just the pitching, you can bring in a different pitcher. You can’t just bring in a whole new infield. If this continues, we’re in trouble.
I get that this is just one game and normally Lopez makes that play, Russ catches that throw and Woodward might has a shot if he fields the ball cleanly, but those things didn’t happen. I don’t think we need to blow up the team, but a little extra infield ground ball practice wouldn’t hurt.
PDXTai - July 9, 2009
I eluded to this yesterday...
While our OF defense is stellar, our infield defense (especially sans Beltre, even swapping Yuni for Cedeno) is rather frightening. I’d almost — ALMOST — prefer we through out flyball pitchers. But, then again, flyballers’ mistakes tend to end up where NO outfielder could reach them. Still, with this defense it might be worth the risk…
PositivePaul - July 9, 2009
Alluded
Graham MacAree - July 9, 2009
Yeah, that.
PositivePaul - July 9, 2009
That verb eluded you like it was a ball and you were Jose Lopez!
Thanks, I’ll be here all week.
Once upon a time Jeff posted a diagram showing the defensive alignment for Jeff Weaver’s next start. It was epic and would solve the problem of balls over the fence. Well, at least make them easier to retrieve.
Are we ready to have Julio Mateo back as a relief pitcher? I feel like I need to wash my mouth out with soap.
PDXTai - July 9, 2009
Is there any truth to the thought that infielders need some time at new positions to settle in?
I’m thinking mostly of SS and 2B, being able to turn a double play smoothly. I haven’t read anything SABR on the topic, but there’s a lot I haven’t read
Kermit. - July 9, 2009
I'd imagine so
changing positions generally works out over the longer term, but I’m sure there’s a transition period. It would be absurd if there weren’t.
Jeff Sullivan - July 9, 2009
I knew this already however it did not stop me from having a shitty mood all day.
EnglishMariner - July 9, 2009
When I saw the subject of this post
I thought it had to do with the article I just read about how Jarrod Washburn was considering retirement, but now thinks he wants to continue to work with Rick Adair and re-sign in Seattle.
Kenny Knows Sports - July 9, 2009
Aardsma wasn't looking good at all though for some reason.
I doubt Woody still makes the play so if Lopez actually fielded the ball correctly we’re looking at 3-2 M’s 2 outs and a runner on third.
Slurvey - July 9, 2009
Woody made a similar play a few games earlier...
But, yeah…
PositivePaul - July 9, 2009
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Lookout Landing to post a comment.