Seattle: 63-61
Oakland: 55-68
| MARINERS | ATHLETICS |
EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA) |
-75.2 (27th) |
-44.7 (24th) | OAK |
| FIELDING (UZR) |
56.4 (2nd) |
14.1 (11th) | SEA |
| ROTATION (pRAA) |
-17.8 (23rd) |
-5.7 (16th) | OAK |
| BULLPEN (pRAA) |
-27.8 (29th) | 45.3 (1st) | OAK |
| OVERALL(RAA) |
-64.4 | 9.0 | Oakland |
Stupid Indians. Feels like they have our number this year, maybe it's revenge for Mike Hargrove.
Wow has Oakland played better than us this season. Their bullpen has been both deep and fantastic, while ours has been injury ridden, short and crap. A couple more dropped series and we start heading toward that protected first round draft pick territory. I wonder if there's a significant marketing and/or financial motivation for the team to finish above .500. It certainly sounds better to come back from a 61-win season and say they either finished above .500 or improved by 20 games, or what have you.
16 game improvement just does not have quite the emotional impact.
Game 1: Ian Snell vs. Vin Mazzaro
Game 2: Ryan Rowland-Smith* vs. Brett Anderson*
Game 3: Lucas French* vs. Gio Gonzalez*
Who are these plucky Athletic starters? Vin Mazzaro made some waves with his first couple outings being the no-runs allowed type, but that was wasted hype as the walks and line drives would have illustrated. Since then, Mazzarro has given up runs and fallen off the latest young Oakland starter news machine and become another solidly just worse than average pitcher, which for a 22-year-old, is intriguing.
Anderson looks like the real deal and at just 21 years of age and with limited professional experience, a Mariners fan has to worry about him further developing his command and getting better going forward. His slider is a real weapon.
Gio Gonzalez can miss a ton of bats. He also misses the strike zone a lot and also has displayed a poor habit of getting his pitches knocked well beyond that demarcation thingy in the outfield. So far in his starting Major League career, one in every 20 batters that he has faced has hit a home run.
0 recs | 36 comments
Can Saunders catch a fucking break. Seems like 60-70% of the league now consists
of lefty starters.
Rudy4three - August 24, 2009
What should the Mariners record be given an overall RAA of -64.4?
Janic - August 24, 2009
Worse
Jeff Sullivan - August 24, 2009
Am I doing this right?
Average team would have 62 wins after 124 games (.500 ball).
5 runs = 1 win
-64.4 RAA = 13 wins
RAA says we should have 62 – 13 = 49 wins and 75 losses (.395 ball)
PDXTai - August 24, 2009
I believe a win is ten runs.
Aaron Campeau - August 24, 2009
A little trickier
but you can use the pythag to figure it out.
Win% = 1 / (1 + a^2)
a = Runs Allowed / Run Scored
(You can use different exponents but 2 is about right)
Runs Allowed = Average Runs Allowed – pRAA(defense) – pRAA(fielding)
Runs Scored = Average Runs Scored + pRAA(offense)
Average Runs Allowed = Average Runs Scored = ~574
Expected Win% = .440
Expected Record = 54.5-69.5
Final Expected Record = 71 – 90
Actual Record = 63-61
-64.4 RAA ~ 8.5 wins
If you use 1.81 as the exponent instead of 2, you gain about 0.7 wins. Either way, it doesn’t look that pretty.
Edgar for Pres - August 24, 2009
Who are these A's starters?...
A’s fans are probably asking the same question about our starters.
Edgar for Pres - August 24, 2009
Beats me, but I bet they kick our asses.
royalcurve - August 24, 2009
We're not finishing .500 are we?
Poochie - August 24, 2009
It is indeed unlikely that we finish exactly 81-81
Matthew - August 24, 2009
We can still hope for a cockpunch record
d0nkey - August 24, 2009
I will be doing a writeup on this soon.
I think the odds favor Robert now.
Eyebrows - August 24, 2009
Yeah, we need an update on that.
appleshampoo - August 24, 2009
Long story short, 9 games left
Robert needs the Ms to win 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 of them.
Eyebrows - August 24, 2009
Which means cockpunch for
0, 6, 7, 8 or 9 wins.
Eyebrows - August 24, 2009
I'm confused.
What does the “9 games left” mean?
PDXTai - August 24, 2009
Until the bet is decided.
End of play, 8/31.
Eyebrows - August 24, 2009
THE ENTIRE SITE WILL TREMBLE AT MY MIGHT
Robert - August 24, 2009
NOT IN THE SPIRIT OF THE QUESTION
Poochie - August 24, 2009
Hey look we improved by 6 runs last series.
Mariner John - August 24, 2009
Are the Royals the only team with a worse overall RAA?
MFAN - August 24, 2009
I'd rather the team finish over .500.
Then, at the very least, they can call the Sweeney/Griffey clubhouse chemistry project a rousing success. Plus, it’s nice to think that next year’s team will be better.
ThundaPC - August 24, 2009
No, because then they'll both be back.
CMC_Stags - August 24, 2009
I'm hoping Griffey's newfound sense of humility and self-awareness
will speak to him louder than anything and tell him “yeah, dude, you’re done – go play golf”.
pdb - August 24, 2009
While I don't disagree with this:
I have a feeling that the legacy (which is a bit over-dramatic but I don’t feel like trying to come up with a better word) of this season is already pretty much set; most people realize that this year’s team is world’s better than last year’s, and if the Mariners go ahead and suck the rest of the season (which seems unlikely given how much better the roster is now than it was to start the year) most fans will consider this season a rousing success no matter where the team ends up in the standings.
Aaron Campeau - August 24, 2009
My god, the bullpen doesn't feel as bad as pRAA states it is. I must not be paying attention.
Apart from a spate of recent Aardsma blown saves… and Morrow being Morrow earlier this season… and Corcoran… it just never felt that profoundly horrible.
I always find myself complaining about men left on base, and the offense overall, much more than I do about blown saves.
I must have bought into the whole gladiator helmet mythology or something.
Spoomeister - August 24, 2009
Remember that this methodology isn't results based
The bullpen isn’t seen as a problem because they’ve got a fine ERA (or at least they did), didn’t blow many saves, etc.
How they look in a defense/luck neutral view is quite different, however.
The bullpen isn’t as good as their ERA would indicate, but their results won’t be as bad as the pRAA indicates either – these guys don’t pitch in a defense/park-neutral environment, they pitch for Seattle.
marc w - August 24, 2009
They've also been giving up a lot of HR's.
Slurvey - August 24, 2009
I love the FSN ads for this series.
because I know when I think about Oakland, my first thought is Nomar Garciaparra.
msb - August 24, 2009
He hasn't retired yet?
Matthew - August 24, 2009
He reminds me of an olden time when I didn't hate the Red Sox because all their fans were actual fans.
SethGrandpa - August 24, 2009
Lineup (Holy crap)
Per Divish
Franklin Gutierrez CF
Russell Branyan 1B
Jose Lopez 2B
Ken Griffey Jr. DH
Bill Hall RF
Kenji Johjima C
Jack Hannahan 3B
Jack Wilson SS
Michael Saunders LF
ThundaPC - August 24, 2009
Oh shit, Ichiro had better not be seriously hurt.
Eyeball Kid - August 24, 2009
Everyone says "tightness" in the calf.
Wak says Ichiro is day-to-day.
msb - August 24, 2009
Yeah, I've just seen the Divish update
Not likely to play ’til Weds.
Eyeball Kid - August 24, 2009
SMACKLEY TIME!
Robert - August 24, 2009
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