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Lookout Landing

56-51, Game Notes

I've learned something about myself these last two nights. Honestly, I don't know why it never dawned on me until just now. And what I've learned is that, for all the talk about how offense is exciting and chicks dig the longball and the Rockies kept selling out because there was non-stop action, for me - and I'm only talking about me, here - while high-scoring games can be a fun change of pace from time to time, they rapidly lose their appeal as they start to drag on. Which, in turn, means that duration is a bigger determinant in how much I enjoy watching a baseball game than the level of offense. In terms of an equation:

Enjoyment = Aα + Bβ + Cγ + Dδ +…

There are a whole lot of different factors that can affect how much I enjoy watching a baseball game. Leverage. Significance. Whether the Mariners win or lose. And so on. All of those things are included above as separate variables. But what I've learned tonight is that

If α = level of offense and β = duration

Then B > A

The first two games of this series have taken something like seven combined hours to complete. I'm glad the M's came out on top of both of them, but rather than happy and enthralled, all I've been for much of those seven hours is bored and annoyed. Congratulations, Mariners - your wins have taken so long that at several points I've lost interest and felt like a bad fan for doing so. That's not how this is supposed to work.

Thank you for winning. Winning is neat. Now just please do me the courtesy of hurrying up.

  • Reflecting on his performance and then looking at the box score, Luke French pitched a better game than his line would suggest. Both home runs were on pitches I imagine he'd like to have back - particularly Gordon's, which came on a high-80s 1-0 fastball literally in the center of the zone - but outside of those, I thought he looked pretty good for what he is. Though both the TV radar gun and the PITCHf/x reported velocities seemed high, French still got some fastballs up there at 90+ and he seems to have "sneaky" heat, in that his fastballs look faster than they really are. I don't know what causes that sort of thing, but that was my impression, and by and large he was able to put it where he wanted.

    As for French's secondary pitches - for one thing, he threw them a lot. 43% offspeed on the game. And for another, they were effective. 26 of 38 were thrown for strikes, six missed bats, and only one was hit particularly hard. What's interesting is that, where he came in having excelled with his slider, tonight it was his changeup that stole the show. Although I guess that was mostly the doings of Miguel Olivo, who swung at five changeups and missed four of them. Still, Olivo's a big league hitter, and French's change threw him for a loop. It's encouraging to see him working off that pitch pretty well since it was a big part of his success in AAA.

    When you look at French's fastball and tendency to pitch up in the zone, you'd think he's always due to get shelled. But throw in a pair of good offspeed pitches and an ability to move the ball around the zone and you get a guy who's better than being just another Garrett Olson. Olson couldn't even throw strikes today with a giant lead. French threw strikes with more than two-thirds of his pitches. A skeptic might call him "Garrett Olson with command," but Garrett Olson with command isn't Garrett Olson anymore, and that's why I think French could be a pretty good piece. When you can locate and work against both lefties and righties, you've got an excellent chance of contributing at the Major League level. Though hardly spectacular, what I saw from French tonight only served to confirm my moderately optimistic expectations.

  • I can't get over how uncomfortable and awkward Olson looks in a baseball uniform. I know that sounds weird but you'll notice it too the next time you see him, and then that's all you'll be able to see for the rest of the season. I don't like to wear shorts. However, I get hot really easily, so I went to try on some shorts the other day, but when I put them on I didn't at all feel like myself. That's how I see Garrett Olson in a baseball uniform. Like he doesn't have any confidence in his image because he's wearing something he doesn't think suits his body.

  • I think it's high time we give this segment a new name.

    Koplove2_medium
    As if the 222 games of Major League experience weren't enough of a clue that Koplove isn't going to be making any prospect lists, Dave Sims chimed in with - and this is an exact quote - "Didn't even know he was still bouncing around baseball. Thought he hung 'em up." 

  • Any act of building is building to the future. This is like Mitch Hedberg/every picture is of you when you were younger all over again.

  • In the top of the third inning, Michael Saunders ripped a 3-1 low-inside fastball down the right field line for his first ever Major League triple. As a starter, Kyle Davies has a career 5.92 tRA over nearly 500 innings. I wonder if it still counts as your first career Major League triple if you hit it off a AAA arm. 

  • As evidenced by the promotion at Kauffman today, 80s Night is a popular phenomenon for people of all ages. It gives them an excuse to wear clothes they'd never wear, use words they'd never use, sing along to songs they'd never sing along to, and generally just celebrate a memorable but nevertheless thankfully distant decade that hasn't stood the test of time. It's an opportunity for people college-aged or older to reflect on all the stupid shit they used to like so many eons ago, and for people high school-aged or younger to look at their parents and wonder what the hell was wrong with them. Now here's a thought: the Royals haven't won more than 84 games in a season since 1989, and they haven't made the playoffs since 1985.

  • Miguel Batista inherited a 10-4 lead and threw 14 strikes out of 28 pitches. Garrett Olson inherited an 11-5 lead and threw 20 strikes out of 37 pitches. Without being able to record catcher glove location prior to each pitch, we don't have a real good measure of pitcher command. Strike rate in blowouts, however, might be a useful proxy, because there's no good reason to nibble around the edges. Hey, by that test, guess which relievers of ours who pitched today don't have good command?

  • Yuniesky Betancourt as a Royal:

    OSwing%: 22.9% (25.0% league average)
    ZSwing%: 67.5% (65.7% league average)
    Zone%: 63.2% (49.3% league average)

    Over the last 30 days, Yuni's Zone% - the percentage of pitches thrown within the strike zone - has been the highest in baseball, 4% above Jason Kendall. Pitchers are clearly just going right after him, not the least bit afraid that he's going to deliver much damage. In Yuni's defense, though, at least his discipline looks to be quite a bit better. I'm not going to jump to any conclusions because there are sample size issues here to take into consideration, but as a member of the Royals, Yuni has swung at fewer balls out of the strike zone than the average Major Leaguer. If you remember what he was like as an M, that's just a little bit flabbergasting. For them, this is an encouraging sign of progress. And I actually think that's pretty cool.

  • Jack Hannahan got to play two innings in the field at short in relief of Jack Wilson, diving at but missing a groundball single. I'm surprised the Mariners are giving him the opportunity to work on his versatility at the Major League level, but I'm also ecstatic, because the prospect of Hannahan as a utility player tickles me in all the right places, and this way I don't have to watch any Chris Woodward. Hannahan's approach to hitting makes it really, really hard for me to believe he's as bad as his numbers, and should his plus defense translate to other positions around the infield, he could very well turn out to be quite the find.

  • A cat running around the living room: not interesting. A cat running around the street and the sidewalk: somewhat interesting. A cat running around the living room of someone who doesn't own a cat: more interesting. A cat running around a baseball field during the middle of a game: maximum level of interest. Whenever something like this happens, the critter invariably ends up drawing a greater ovation than pretty much anything that happens during the game, which makes me think that zoos have it all wrong. The key to making an animal interesting isn't so much presenting the animal itself as it is presenting the animal in a situation in which people don't expect an encounter. I'd find our zoo way less boring if I only saw animals in surprising situations.

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Comments

If we put steaks on the bases...

We could have the zoo release random animals for ’run around the bases promotion. If a cat gets a standing ovation… what about a TIGER.

Since French is being compared to Washburn 10 years ago

It’ll be interesting to see the numbers compared after a season. Can we cut the 10 year learning curve and teach him a dolphin sooner? He didn’t look bad out there. Not great. But not bad.

The dolphin is mostly an effective pitch because it is new to a long time veteran.

If French throws it the chances are it gets killed.

The cat was interesting, to be sure. But for me, the most entertaining part of the game was:

Johnson single to center
Wilson to third advancing on throw
Johnson to second advancing on throw
Wilson scores advancing on throw
Johnson to third advancing on throw

It reminded me of Beer league softball

Batter singles to shallow left
Batter takes second on the throw to second
fielding error by second baseman
batter runs to third (while second baseman still holds the ball)
batter slides into third (and spikes the third baseman making the tag)
tagging error on 3B who drops the ball trying not to be spiked
batter runs home
throwing error on 3b as he hits batter in the back trying to get out at home
Batter celebrates ‘inside the park HR’

Ah the Royals

Can always be counted on to find a way to suck.

Hey, Yuniesky finally drew a walk
Most of the pitchers have picked up their pace

I remember players interviewed saying that the coaches wanted them to work fast and get into a rhythm. I don’t think Miggy got that memo. It took forever for each pitch. I don’t blame him for being a bad pitcher. He does a job and occassionally does it well. I do blame him for boring me. He was as slow as the KC pitchers. I have never seen that many of our hitters call timeout in the box because it took too long to start the windup.

So could Koplove possibly be of some use to the Mariners?
If he's a submariner...? Well, I'm curious. He could be of very specialized use.
Generally agreed re: length of games

but when he games run long in the eastern or central time zones, it’s like a little present since I don’t usually get home until 7:30 or so. Games like yesterday’s are my favorite because they’re close and it’s like starting off at 0-0.

Your last bullet point

sounds like it belongs on a Demetri Martin chart.

I was thinking the exact same thing.
You're quietly walking through the zoo when suddenly...BOOM! POLAR BEAR ATTACK
I don't mind these long sloppy games when they're such an anomaly.

Because Jack Z is building this team to win tight games. A little more help in the bullpen, a DH (or DH platoon) that really hits… and the shape of what kind of baseball Seattle might be able to play as soon as next season begins to really take form.

Just look at how the on-field baseball IQ continues to rise. It’s amazing.

If I was commissioner of baseball the first thing I'd do is make umps enforce the time limits between pitches...

Baseball would be so much better (and more popular) if a better pace was enforced.

Second thing I’d do is let to robots call balls and strikes.

Wait

Roy Corcoran is DFA’d and refuses a AAA assignment, only to immediately sign with the Astros and report to their AAA affiliate?

Round Rock is closer to Louisiana than Tacoma
Better mud to play with down there.
He has a good shot to win Minor League Player of the Year in that system.
In his final AB, Yuni struck out on three pitches....all looking.

Has that EVER happened before?

Pitch #1 was borderline, Pitch #2 was clearly a ball, and Pitch #3 was right down the middle. I’m used to Yuni going into Auto-Hacking mode after the first pitch. Progress!?

He was trying to show Wakamatsu that he has changed -- but it backfired.

That’s a possibility, anyway. It seemed clear yesterday that he has some strong feelings about the Mariners having traded him away.

Jeff may be the Andy Rooney of baseball writing.

The part about Olson in his uniform was the best.

Except that Andy Rooney is an insane old man with nothing interesting to say and Jeff is a perfectly rational young person

Related note – am I the only one who thinks that Rick Reilly will one day be babbling into his oatmeal about nothing in particular like Andy Rooney currently does?

They probably won't film Reilly for 10 minutes of prime Sunday night.
If they'll film Rooney they'll film Reilly

because some clueless TV exec somewhere will think “hey, this guy’s like Andy Rooney, but EDGIER! The young kids will LOVE IT!”.

Andy Rooney was not always like that though.
Very true. I remember watching him as far back as the 70's and he used to make me laugh.
Couldn't you argue that Safeco Field was sortof a building to the past?

After all, it was a return to traditional outdoor baseball. The rotunda in the southwest corner is a clear throwback to Ebbets Field.

I mean, sure, it was building to the future too, a future of MLB in Seattle. But don’t you think the other could be argued too?

I prefer "A Link to the Past."
I didn't know it was CHEEZBURGER night at Kauffman.

I CAN HAZ DISTRACTION?

Headline in the Kansas City Star

Latest fur ball: Royals cough up another loss

Glad to see

That KC hasn’t lost its humor even as they team continues to play badly yet again.

Why would pitchers be throwing Yuni anything near the plate?
Because they know he won't hit it very often so they have no reason to pitch around him
I guess this makes sense if he really has improved his plate discipline in the last three weeks.
The only thing that could make this picture better is if it was focused on the guys in the dugout

Like those pictures of the guy running the bases that are always focused on the pitcher.

I like the photo of Saunders further along in the AP photo montage
He looks like the dolls people stick on their rear windshields.
The one with Yuni and Ichiro looks like Yuni's about to give him an EPIC PIMP SLAP.
It would be really funny to see what would happen if Yuni did try to slap Ichiro.
Where is the "I'm gonna CUT you" Ichiro jpeg when I need it?
Two points

I leaned a long time ago that I prefer a pitching duel to a hitter’s parade in a baseball game. Of course, a couple high scoring innings for the Mariners is important, but given the choice in a close games, I take the duel every time. Why? Because swinging strike outs are awesome and the game lasts 2 hours and 15 minutes.

Second, while it’s unreasonable to expect much from French, I think his lack of a fastball is taken as too much of a sign of his ceiling. There are pitchers in the majors who are very effective and don’t crack 90 mph (Ted Lilly, Andy Pettit, Mark Buerhle), and lots who don’t pitch effectively and throw 94. Indeed, when you look at fastball velocity and major league pitchers, there’s not a great correlation between fastball velocity and anything. (This isn’t an argument for the point, just an illustration: Tim Wakefield’s 72 MPH stuff is one of the best fastballs in baseball.) If French has two good offspeed pitches and a mediocre fastball, I think he can be better than many people are giving him credit for. That he can be doesn’t mean he will be, sure enough. He’s Jarrod Washburn right now, except that he’s cheaper and he’s a rookie. Unlike Washburn, there’s a lot of time for improvement.

Also, if a guy throws too much up in the zone, that can be solved by having him throw down more often. Maybe that limits his effectiveness, but getting pitches down in the zone may be as simple as telling him to do it.

Well, here's a counterpoint:

http://www.bbtia.com/home/2009/7/1/fastball-velocity-pitching-performance-and-rangers-starting.html

I’ve been curious as to what this site’s posters would think about it.

I'm actually skeptical

For one, FIP, K/9 and BB/9 show no correlation in his first graph. What he says contradict that. Part of the reason I’m skeptical is that I’ve done a similar study and find weak correlation between pitch velocity and FIP, but it’s not large (r = .37). Anyway, the point remains that FB velocity is overrated.

The rolling averages methodology seems wrong. I’ve never seen that before. What he should have done if he wanted to “basket” the data like that is break the pitchers into groups based on fastball velocity: group 1, all pitchers with a 94+ MPH fast ball, group 2, 93-92, etc. This method would look for correlations between fastball velocity and pitching effectiveness. The method he uses correlates ordinal ranking among pitchers in terms of fastball velocity and pitching effectiveness. That strange method can make far too much of the fact that of the ten pitchers with a fastball between 91.1 and 91.0, five go in one group and five go in the other.

You can pitch well without a great fastball,

but you have to have other pitches that are extraordinary, and you have to have great control. I’m not sure that French has either right at this point.

But he’s young, and looks like he knows how to actually pitch, not just throw. But I seriously doubt he ever becomes a #1 or #2 starter.

See Moyer, Jamie

Or Tim Wakefield but they are the exceptions, not the rule.

Quite true...

….but we don’t need him to turn into a #1 or #2 starter for this to be a good pick up.

Heck, if he eats innings and turns into a #3 or #4, this is a massive win for the Ms.

Wakefield's fastball is so great because he has a pitch with insane movement

to complement it with. French has a good slider and perhaps a good changeup, but neither are elite pitches that will make his fastball great by comparison. That being said, he’s 21 and he just developed his slider, so it could get much better, and so could his change.

Also, I don’t think he has the control to ever turn into a Buerhle.

I think he'll be 24 next month.
Not sure what to think of this team now

So up and down this year, I do hope we can finish the sweep though.

They are who we thought they were.

A .500-ish team that could have been in the race for the AL West if the baseball gods would ever get around to picking a new favorite team.

Thank you Denny Green.
You should think that this team is well positioned to be successful in 2010 and beyond

which is the most satisfying thought there is.

Is it just me

Or has Loafie looked grumpy since Yuni was traded?

Are you sure you mean grumpy?

Are you sure you don’t mean good?

I have to think that steamrolling an opponent also depends on whom is being rolled.

Steamrolling the Royals = Snorefest.
Steamrolling the Angels = Fun for the whole family.
Steamrolling the Red Sox / Yankees = Fun for baseball.

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