We Did Well For Ourselves

by Jeff Sullivan on Aug 7, 2009 11:27 AM PDT in Seattle Mariners Stats

Pitcher: Jarrod Washburn
Performance: 3.77 FIP, high tRA (StatCorner is blocked at work), high fly balls, low strikeouts, low walks, 20 starts, 100 pitches per
Contract: Expires this winter
Return: Luke French, Mauricio Robles

Pitcher: Chad Gaudin
Performance: 3.68 FIP, average fly balls, high strikeouts, high walks, 19 starts, 95 pitches per
Contract: Arbitration-eligible
Return: Future considerations

Pitcher: Carl Pavano
Performance: 4.26 FIP, average fly balls, medium strikeouts, low walks, 21 starts, 92 pitches per
Contract: Expires this winter
Return: PTBNL

Okay, both Gaudin and Pavano have their problems. Gaudin's a righty who struggles against lefties, and Pavano's had a bit of trouble with home runs. Plus, he has that whole unfortunate reputation to shake. But Washburn has his problems, too, and you could make a pretty convincing argument that he's actually the worst of these three starting pitchers. I don't know how much I believe that, but he certainly isn't better than Gaudin or Pavano by any significant margin.

And yet, where the latter two were traded for pennies, Zduriencik was able to turn Washburn into a decent starting pitcher under team control and a faraway but intriguing young prospect. All because he's a proven veteran with a low ERA.

I can't believe there are still people who are disappointed with that deal. Z hit it out of the park.

0 recs | 33 comments

Comments

Not to mention Wash's money owed compared to the other two.

And, tRA, tRA*

WASH – 5.02, 5.38
GAUDIN – 4.13, 4.54 (NL)
PAVANO – 4.90, 4.72

Matthew - August 7, 2009 reply

Is future considerations a PTBNL or cash?

Is there something outside those two choices?

Wilder. - August 7, 2009 reply

I don't know for sure

but I think whether it ends up a PTBNL or cash depends on Gaudin’s performance in New York.

Jeff Sullivan - August 7, 2009 reply

Well here we go

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman had multiple talks with Towers about trades for San Diego pitching and settled on Gaudin. The Padres have received a list of players from New York and will choose one on September 1 when rosters are expanded to 40 players.

(link)

Jeff Sullivan - August 7, 2009 reply

One point in Washburn's favor:

While Jeff pointed out the similarity in pitch counts, I imagine Jarrod’s 100 pitches as a low K & BB pitcher were getting him through more innings than a high K & BB pitcher like Gaudin. In fact, baseballreference tells me Washburn pitched 33 more innings so far this season.

Working efficiently is a valuable commodity. I get the sense that a lot of our newer stats don’t give much weight to that, though I’ll confess I’m no expert on those stats. But given the similar FIPs, I wouldn’t hesitate to pay more for Washburn and relieve my bullpen (though the high tRA might cancel that out, if I were a GM who considered such things).

The more I look at these numbers, the more I wonder how much better Pavano would be than Olson or Vargas.

Lanky - August 7, 2009 reply

Much

Matthew - August 7, 2009 reply

That would show up in counting stats like pRAA

Unfortunately:

Washburn: -1.0
Pavano: +0.7
Gaudin: +6.6

There’s nothing wrong with giving your team a lot of ~ average innings. It’s just that the going rate for guys who can do this is much, much less than we sold Wash for. Yay us!

marc w - August 7, 2009 reply

Of course

A big reason Washburn threw more innings is that he was an AL pitcher getting lucky, as opposed to an AL pitcher getting unlucky (Pavano) or an NL pitcher getting unlucky (Gaudin).

Washburn’s P/PA is equal to Gaudin’s and higher than Pavano’s. He threw more innings because the defense and ballpark were bailing him out and therefore Wak had less reason to pull him.

Jeff Sullivan - August 7, 2009 reply

Yes!

I think a lot of people lose sight of just how much defense (and the park) contribute to inning totals.

Teej - August 7, 2009 reply

But veteran grit!

Thinking we lost the Washburn trade is what happens when you look up from your spreadsheets and actually watch the games.

PDXTai - August 7, 2009 reply

That's also how we hired Washburn in the first place...

Along with Silva and Batista. Personally, I’m all for the spreadsheets.

Mmm, nested functions…

Sidi - August 7, 2009 reply

I live in NJ now, the word is that Jack Z asked for Joba or Hughs for Washburn,

was flatly turned down. He then asked for Austin Jackson or Jesus Montero. That was turned down to, with the Yankees putting Jackson, Montero and Austin Romine on the untouchable list, but let Jack Z pick anyone else in their system. Never heard from Jack Z again. French and Robles are intriguing players, but I am not sure the Mariners could not get a better deal from the Yankees than these two.

brian_sun - August 7, 2009 reply

http://ussmariner.com/2009/08/02/the-yankees-and-lying-and-the-yankees-lying/

Jeff Sullivan - August 7, 2009 reply

They could be, but we will never know what really went down. The rumor was reportedly by Buster Olney,

who probably has the best inside sources among all journalists in baseball. If the rumor is true, you’ve got to think there are a couple guys off the Yankees untouchable list that are better return than French and Robles.

brian_sun - August 7, 2009 reply

But it's not

Graham MacAree - August 7, 2009 reply

1) The Yankees "untouchables" list is hyped to all heavens

2) There have been a total of zero leaks regarding moves from the Mariners front office so I don’t understand why people believe everyone that they hear.

Robert - August 7, 2009 reply