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This Is Terrifying

Said Felix in yesterday's recap:

Hernandez credited an on-form changeup for his high strikeout total.

"The strikeouts, everything was changeups," Hernandez said. "It was unbelievable today. First time I've had a changeup like this."

Felix recorded 17 swinging strikes against the Jays. Three of them came on what, according to the PITCHf/x data, were unmistakably breaking balls. Of the 14 remaining, the slowest was 89.5mph, and the other 13 all came in higher than 90.6.

He also recorded 11 strikeouts. Three of them came on breaking balls. The others were all 90.6mph or above.

Either Felix doesn't differentiate between his two-seamer and his changeup in his head, or he was throwing his changeup faster than Johan throws his fastball.

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Felix's stuff seems to have changed from year to year. I feel his changeup is in need of greater analysis, because the more I watch it the more it's movement reminds me of a splitter.
I think his changeup got faster again and broke Gameday

According to Brooks Baseball he threw:
78 FourSeam Fastballs
8 Sinkers
7 Sliders
15 Curves

When you look at the Horizontal Movement x Speed and Vertical Movement x Speed graphs it looks like a fair amount of the pitches were mislabeled.

Horizontal Movement x Speed

When I went into the data I only classified four changeups

Because I didn’t think anything at 90.6 or above could be a changeup.

According to Fangraphs, his change is averaging 89.1 MPH this year

Would it be that much of a stretch to assume that something in the low 90s would be possible from a change? Or would that be another pitch altogether?

No, it's not a stretch at all, which just blows my mind

I can’t really tell his fastball and changeup apart anymore.

I wonder if batters can't tell them apart anymore either.

Everyone always talks about the ideal difference in speed between a fastball and a change. If Felix is throwing his FB around 95 and his change around 91-92, is there enough difference between the two considering both speed and movement to throw batters off?

Based on the 17 swinging strikes last night, I’d guess yes.

I just saw the gif you so kindly provided...

Holy crap.

Vertical Movement x Speed

Via Brooks Baseball.

There was a picture from the AP

that shows Felix throwing a circle change. At least, I think it is a circle change – I don’t know my grips very well. Hopefully, this link will work. If not, you should be able to click on the Griffey/Guti picture in the Game Notes article you wrote and find it.

Sure looks like a circle change, certainly no splitter.
Captain says it's from the first inning

Slowest pitch he threw in the first was 91mph. Jesus.

Captain?
Captain is the name of the guy who writes the AP photo captions
I really hope that's his first name.
Captain Munnerlyn?
Whatever happened to him anyway?
And how many "Got a little Captain in you?" jokes do you think he's heard in his lifetime?
According to Wikipedia

the Panthers nabbed him in the 7th round. He has 1 tackle this season.

I hereby apologize

 for every 2007-early 2009 post in which I wondered aloud if Felix would ever realize the awesome potential that everyone ascribed to him. I have never been more delighted to be proven wrong.

I'm in that boat too.
Ditto. It was looking bad for a while but thank God he learned to harness his talents.
I'm not saying this again until he sustains it more.

Fool me once, shame on you
Fool me twice, shame on me…

But, then again, I’m not going to say he’s “overrated” again so…

And it's name is

El Negro Muerte!

Dave Allen did some interesting analysis on Felix's "power change" a couple months ago

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/07/felix_hernandez.php

His change is turning into more of a screwball than a change, the throws it so hard
How far back does reliable, game-by-game swinging strike data go?

I’d love to see what the highest swinging strike games that have been pitched are. It looks like it starts in 1988 on baseball reference, but maybe retrosheet has that data for further back. (I found Clemens with a couple 29 swinging strike games in 1988)

It looks like Felix’s career high is 21 swinging strikes in one game, which he did against the Giants earlier this year.

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