For the record, this is more of a passing thought than a serious analytical comparison. Anyway:
Jose Lopez, 2009
21 homers, 10.9% HR/FB, 7.6% HR/BIA, 103mph average speed off bat
Aaron Hill, 2009
31 homers, 16.1% HR/FB, 10.9% HR/BIA, 102mph average speed off bat
(Source = HitTrackerOnline)
It's not a perfect comparison, but if you're trying to see what Jose Lopez would look like if he didn't have to play half his games in Seattle, Hill's about as close a match as you're going to get. ~Average defensive second baseman, likes to swing, likes to make contact, doesn't walk, doesn't run, hits for pretty much all of his power to left. And despite not really possessing much more power - Hill and Lopez have both topped out at 110mph off the bat this year - Hill's got an extra ten dingers.
I know that Lopez's splits are confusing - his career homer rate is actually a little better at home - but I don't buy that as "real". Just because we have decent sample sizes for his splits doesn't automatically mean they're revealing his true talent, and there's no reason to believe that Lopez should be able to hit for more power in Safeco than anywhere else. I think that, if you took him out of Seattle and dropped him somewhere else, he's lose a few outs, lose a few doubles, and add a few dingers. And, in so doing, would start to look a lot like 2009 Aaron Hill. A more aggressive Aaron Hill who makes more contact and more errors, mind you, but still pretty damn similar.
0 recs | 9 comments
Jose Lopez might be an example of a player you are better off trying to trade to a smart FO rather than trying to trade to a dumb FO.
Aaron Campeau - September 5, 2009
No matter what his value would be maximized elsewhere.
Sec 108 - September 6, 2009
Or they could just move the fences in left in and make it easier for him to hit homers
seattlebruin - September 8, 2009
Seems like they would have done that for someone who is good like Beltre by now.
Sec 108 - September 9, 2009
This is information Jack Z could use at the Winter meetings.
I know USSM covered J-Lo as being trade bait. I think for a lot of teams Lopez is a wonderful fit. A decent 2B man who hits 30-35 HRs and is cheap would mean a lot to the right team.
I am just hoping for another JJ Putz-Gutierrez mega trade.
mark sobba - September 5, 2009
I think assuming 30-35 HR after a trade to any team is probably a bad idea.
Even if he could fit in another park better, he still doesn’t exactly have huge power. Aaron Hill’s home runs could have easily been doubles or outs. 30-35 HR is far from a guarantee even with the above graph, which will probably reduce his value in trade even to smart GMs in ballparks suited to his skillset.
CapSea - September 5, 2009
I was thinking about how I would sell a player.
mark sobba - September 5, 2009
I think you're right...
they’re not far apart. And I know you know this, but that difference in home runs between the two (10) is far larger than a park effect, which for a guy like Jose Lopez, might mean an additional 1 to 3 homers in a more suitable park. Aaron Hill has just gotten extremely lucky this year.
nathaniel dawson - September 5, 2009
Aaron Hill can hit the ball 400 feet
Poochie - September 6, 2009
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