Lookout Landing

Jeff has recently covered why the Mariner offense projects to be better than last year's even with the loss of Russell Branyan and the absence of a "big bat" acquisition. Thanks once again to our hope of avoiding any black holes in the lineup, simple regression, and modest improvement from suck to quasi-average could boost the run scoring by 50 or so runs over 2009's total.

There is an aspect of run scoring - one that is a skill - that is glossed over by most wOBA formulas, however, and that is base running. Being able to effectively run the bases, advancing on fly outs, going first to third,  etc, is not the same as simply being fast, as most people should have figured out from watching supposedly fast runners suck at stealing bases. Speed is a part of it, for sure, but being able to read the ball off the bat is vitally important too. Just like judging routes in the outfield in order to catch a ball, the quicker, and more accurate, a player's reaction is, the faster he can make a jump on the base paths.

With the addition of Chone Figgins to the team, obviously the Mariners are going to have a dynamic presence at the top of the lineup with him and Ichiro Suzuki. Both are prolific and successful base stealers. Both are very good at the little things concerned with base running as well and the Mariners should be expected to gain a few runs from that. How does the rest of the team look, though?

This isn't an exhaustive look at the issue. I just wanted a general idea, so I used Baseball Prospectus' base running report and excluded the runs from stolen bases. Jeff's recent post utilized the wOBA formula at FanGraphs, which already includes values for stolen bases and caught steals. Let's take it by position so that I can avoid having to make a fake lineup card. A fair warning ahead: while base running is a part of run scoring that can, on the individual level, significantly alter a player's value, as a team it rarely shifts things dramatically.

Rob Johnson is renowned for being "fast for a catcher", and he may actually be not bad for a catcher; it's hard to tell without positional averages. What we can tell though is that even if he tops the percentile chart for catchers, Johnson is no great shakes. Adam Moore actually showed some decent speed in a very limited time. Josh Bard has frequent arguments with the dirt on the base paths and has to stop and argue with it, or so I assume based on his horrific speed ratings.

Kotchman is pretty mediocre, even for a first baseman. He hasn't gotten a full season of exposure in a while, so it's a little hard to get a recent read, but I would expect him to be around 4 runs below average over his seasonal allotment of playing time.

Figgins is a legitimate speedster. His last three years have been worth 5, 6 and 7 extra runs from base running. Ditto Ichiro, even down to the same values for the past three seasons. Both are on the wrong side of 30 though, so I've docked them a bit for 2010.

The rest of the team is a collection of players right around average, with slightly more negative than positive likely thanks to the DH and Loafie.

All told, not that fabulous, but not slothful either. Thanks to Ichiro, Franklin, and Figgins, the Mariners have built up a speed buffer that the rest of the lineup chips away at. In the end, the lead those three put up help me think this will be an above average unit overall, but the magnitude is so small - on the order of fewer than five runs - that it turns out to be meaningless. But hey, at least they're not negative, right? Also, boy do we need more bench depth.