I wondered about Felix's viability as a trade chit yesterday and my overriding line of thinking is that Felix is not likely to get traded within the next two years. Not a certainty, obviously, but I just don't find it likely. Now then, regardless of a trading circumstance, the hope is for Felix to stick around for as long as possible. Without a trade, Felix either walks after 2011 or, sometime between now and then, gets an extension. Unlike the trading, an extension makes the most sense, by a long shot, now.
Some preliminary numbers have been bandied about with regards to Felix and an extension. I thought I would take a look at it myself. If Felix were to sign an extension today, how would I evaluate it monetarily? Think of this as a reference guide for if, when, an extension does get signed.
Going by tRA*, which builds in some regression from 2009, and projecting 200 innings, which cuts his playing time down to the roughly standard 85% of a full season, Felix looks like a 5-win pitcher for 2010. Going by CHONE's FIP projection, it's about 5 wins as well. I'm comfortable, as you might have noticed from my division projections, with pegging Felix as a 5-win guy going forward.
Now there's a couple different ways to project out long term performance. You have to project out decline, but to combat that, you have rising inflating in the costs of wins. To a point, those usually cancel out enough. For a younger player like Franklin Gutierrez or Felix Hernandez, the decline should hopefully be less severe.
This winter the market cost of a win in free agency fell to around $4 million from the $4.5 million it was the last couple winters. Using that $4 million as the new baseline and factoring in some decline for Felix and some inflation in costs, I went year by year and came up with what I feel to be a rough, but decent, guideline to what would be reasonably "fair" to both sides:
1 year, $11 million
2 years, $25 million
3 years, $44 million
4 years, $62 million
5 years, $78 million
6 years, $94 million
The 6/100 has been a figure that's been tossed about a little and looking at this more thoroughly, appears to be pretty fair to both sides. Don't get me wrong, if Felix comes in at 6/110 or something, it's not like I'll be upset. This is why I'm writing this now before any actual figure comes out because I know if I have to do an analysis afterward, I'm going to be insanely biased toward justifying it. And I wouldn't be wrong, from a fan's perspective. But I would be wrong as an analyst.
6 recs | 39 comments
Mike Salk gave your other Felix piece a shout out on his radio show today.
He told his listeners to “go read Matthew’s article on Felix Hernandez at Lookoutlanding.com.” You might consider bumping that piece to sit below this one.
Wilder. - January 14, 2010
I saw he retweeted it, but this first I heard that he mentioned it on air.
I always miss the start of their show. Cool to hear that he pimped it though.
Matthew - January 14, 2010
I thought about voting for anything, but then I realized that I probably wouldn't be happy with a 4 year/$480 million deal
So I went with “For slightly more than any of those”.
gregrabble - January 14, 2010
Wow.
Some people are irrational.
appleshampoo - January 14, 2010 via mobile
Rationalism
Is not a prerequisite to fandom. In fact sometimes it’s detrimental.
Deelron - January 14, 2010
Rationality, not rationalism
Rationalism is a philosophical view about the role of “reason” in gaining knowledge; in particular, it says something like “reason alone, without direct input from the senses, is responsible for some knowledge.” The contrast with rationalism is empiricism, which says something like “all knowledge require direct input from the senses.” Both are really a cluster of similar views that mostly makes sense in context, relative to a contrast class.
Rationality is the property of being rational, i.e., having beliefs in proportion to evidence.
Interesting, it’s worth noting that one classical exponent of empiricism, David Hume, also claimed that reason doesn’t tell us what to like or dislike. That, pretty much, is your point: reason doesn’t tell us whether to love or hate a baseball player, regardless of what our rational appraisal of his skill level is.
Okay, done with my philosophy lesson for the day.
philosofool - January 14, 2010
The intended meaning (not the philosophical one)
Reliance on reason as the best guide for belief and action.
Or
Reliance on reason rather than intuition to justify one’s beliefs or actions.
Under http://www.thefreedictionary.com/rationalism
Deelron - January 15, 2010
Dear philosofool:
The first of Deelron’s points is certainly correct. An acceptance of the synthetic a priori is clearly not required for fandom. Moreover, one might reasonably think that belief in the synthetic a priori is detrimental as well. Here the idea would be that those enamored with the synthetic a priori are unlikely to employ the inductive methods of sabermetrics, and are therefore depriving themselves of valuable empirical knowledge which enhances the experience of being a fan. For example, due to my (albeit limited) understanding of advanced metrics, I am more excited about the fact that Franklin Gutierrez signed an extension than I otherwise would have been.
(To everyone else, I apologize for this post.)
ty540 - January 15, 2010
The size of his trade chit is none of our business.
Janic - January 14, 2010
Disagree
Robert - January 14, 2010
Dammit I opened up LL and the first thing my eyes saw on the screen was "Felix Hernandez Extension"
I was momentarily ecstatic until the first part of the phrase entered my awareness half a second later.
Fett42 - January 14, 2010
Don't players usually sign at ~10% less for the security of long term contracts?
Do these numbers account for that?
hejuk - January 14, 2010
Young 5+ win players can probably get long term contracts from anyone
Fett42 - January 14, 2010
For the longer deals, yes.
Matthew - January 14, 2010
I picked anything
but as a qualifier, I guess I didn’t really mean absolutely anything. If we signed him for like $50M a season that would be too much, but any even semi-realistic deal would make me completely happy. I kind of take into account the fact that Z isn’t an idiot into my vote for “anything,” but even like 6/130 I would still have a hard time really being upset about that.
Zwakamatsu - January 14, 2010
Can "anything" include anatomy?
Torrid - January 14, 2010
Is the market cost of a win $4 million for elite talent?
Dave Cameron suggested $3 to $3.5 million for “non-star players” this offseason in a post today on fangraphs. Tony Blengino said yesterday on the Hot Stove League that he has seen estimates as low as $3.5 million per win.
For the sake of argument, how would the numbers change with $3.5 or $3 million as the baseline market cost per win?
Does a player of Felix’s caliber command at least $4 million per win? How about $5 million? I would like to see what the reasonable upper limit might be…
Tim B. - January 14, 2010
You can't directly compare the amount free agents can get with a 2nd year arb player.
nathaniel dawson - January 14, 2010
Yes, you can.
That’s the whole point behind the 40/60/80 rubric.
Matthew - January 14, 2010
I did say you can't _directly_ compare.
A player in his arb years can’t expect to get what a free agent can get, whether that be as an arb settlement or a contract extension.
nathaniel dawson - January 14, 2010
A win is a win
they are all worth the same thing, regardless of player.
seattlebruin - January 14, 2010
I think he's referring to a non-linearity in dollars/win valuation
which practical evidence has not borne out beforehand, but should exist given that a constraint (roster size) does exist.
Matthew - January 14, 2010
I understand the M's only so much control
but I think if they pulled a Johnson/Griffey/Rodriguez with Felix there would be a revolt. At least I would revolt. With a payroll that is decently above average there seems to be little reason we can’t resign him for an additional 2-4 years after arb. The only ‘logical’ way this doesn’t happen is if Felix doesn’t want to be in Seattle.
JaaronGriffeyJr - January 14, 2010
I voted slightly more than any of those
A 6 year deal would worry me but a 4 year deal seems like we’d be going through this again before we know it. So whatever, dump a truckload of money on him already.
Nate Dogg - January 14, 2010
I'm fine with anything (for the most part).
It is slightly irrational, but I have no doubt in my mind that a six year deal would pay off for us in the end. He’s Felix!
AtomicGarden - January 14, 2010
Can you explain how you reach those numbers?
Is there a basic formula you’re applying? I mean 5 wins times 4 million is 20 million. How does that get lowered? Injury risk? And how do you decide how much that lowering is? Is it adjusted based on player injury history or age? Thanks, this is interesting stuff.
Snuffleupagus - January 14, 2010 via mobile
Past arbtration awards (see 40/60/80) and long term deal security discounts factor in.
Basically, a player gets 40% of their free market value in their first year of arbitration, on average. 60% the second year, 80% the third. Also, players tend to take about a 10% discount over their year-to-year value when signing long term deals. Otherwise, it wouldn’t make sense for clubs to sign players to long term deals. They need to get some sort of discount in exchange for the risk on a guaranteed contract.
Matthew - January 14, 2010
I'd also add that any team signing an extension for a player during his arb-eligible years is expecting to get some savings on his free agent years.
If the M’s buy out 3 years of Felix’ free agency, in return for guaranteeing him a long-term contract, they would expect to pay less than market rate for those free agent years. In Felix’ case, it really only amounts to one year of risk (his sixth year because right now it’s not guaranteed), so the savings is probably not going to be all that much. But it should lower the total contract value beyond that 10%.
nathaniel dawson - January 14, 2010
1 Billions dollars and 100 virgin Roberts.
That is what I’m offering.
Scruffy Lefty - January 14, 2010
We definitely have 1 virgin Robert to offer.
kentroyals5 - January 14, 2010
We'll have to stitch him back up
Bearskin Rugburn - January 15, 2010
I voted anything for two reasons:
First, because I am irrational about Felix. Second, I trust GMZ.
InSpokane - January 14, 2010
I'm mildy exasperated by now
So yes, that does make me mildly irrational.
melenious - January 14, 2010
My guess is still roughly 5/75~ with an option year.
mark sobba - January 14, 2010
Even though it is a bit above Matthew's projection,
I don’t think anyone here would complain at the 6/100-110 numbers that keep popping up from time to time.
Felix is one of those guys that fans have such an attachment to that you might be willing to pay above market value for him. (Ichiro would be an example of this, but he actually has been worth more then his contract so far.)
IceStormV1 - January 15, 2010
I'm hearing 5/78 from Dave Cameron on Twitter
Way to call it, Matthew!!
JordanB - January 19, 2010
Marry me
Jeff Sullivan - January 19, 2010
NICE CALL!!
5/78 is a hell of a deal for both parties. I’m moving back to Seattle just to watch him pitch.
JohnElwayOverdrive - January 19, 2010
Uncanny!
Retrospective Rec for this post.
appleshampoo - January 19, 2010
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