It's funny that a lot of people who read the Mariners blogs these days haven't been exposed to the saga of Felix Hernandez's fastball. These people are lucky. They've never had to read about Felix throwing 23 fastballs in a row to lead off a game and get shelled in the first again. They've never spent hours analysing the way that the greatest hope of the franchise attempted to piss everything all away in an attempt to establish his pitches whilst feeling all manly-like. They've never spent hours agonising whether Felix will ever pull it all together, because now he has.
But for a while, things were looking pretty dicey. It's hard to believe now that Rafael Chaves, our 2007 pitching coach, had to resort to handing Felix a letter from Dave to try to get him to stop throwing fastballs so much. Back then, throwing 90% fastballs for the first four innings was the norm. And it was infuriating. Batters knew exactly what was coming, and no matter how good your fastball is, you can't just blow major league hitters away without changing things up at all. Felix showed flashes of potential through his first three and a half seasons with the club, seeming to take steps forward only to revert back to his old self the next start. So that was no fun. If he'd just cut down the predictable fastballs, we thought, we'd really have something on our hands.
A funny thing happened in 2009, though. He didn't cut down his fastball. Instead, it got better (by Fangraphs wFB/C). And at the same time, it got slower. Observe (and ignore 2005, as it's a partial season):
Figure 1: Felix Hernandez's seasonal fastball velocity and fastball value
Felix has lost more than 1.5 miles an hour off his fastball since 2007. That decrease corresponds to an increase in wFB/C of 1.41 runs per 100 fastballs thrown. I don't think the run values mean that much, as they're hugely influenced by his defence, but it's still striking to see how well velocity and value match up. And while he's throwing more fastballs more slowly, he's also working his 90mph death-change (his changeup is really, really, really good) in there more often, mixing pitches and keeping batters guessing. So the above isn't really a useful piece of analysis so much as an interesting little dataset and a chance to reflect on the times before Felix had truly ascended his throne.
Two seasons ago Felix threw as hard as anybody in the majors and couldn't get results. Now with experience, a filthy changeup, a resurgent curve, and a friendly defence on his side, he's a Cy Young contender at 23.
It was worth the wait and the struggle, wasn't it?
0 recs | 43 comments
You guys are killing me with the content deluge.
Keep it coming.
Ike Clanton - January 18, 2010
I remember watching Felix's debut on TV when I was on vacation...
Such amazing potential then, amazing ability. Now he’s one of the best pitchers in the game. I try to go to every home Felix start. It’s looking like there’s a chance he’ll reach Randy Johnson level excitement and domination, which is part of the reason why I don’t want to miss a start, I don’t want to miss the day he strikes out 18 in a complete game shutout.
lailaihei - January 18, 2010
Posts devoted to Felix's fastball almost make me sentimental for days gone by...
Then I remember how pissed all of those posts made me and how much I yelled at him through my television screen. I like now better.
SethGrandpa - January 18, 2010
Could this be because he is switching from his 4 seam to his 2 seam?
Or is he just throwing his 4 seam slower and better?
joof - January 18, 2010
His 2-seamer should result in more groundouts, but we're not seeing a big increase there
Graham MacAree - January 18, 2010
Is there any way to isolate groundballs/flyballs by pitch type?
lailaihei - January 18, 2010
Yes, but not for a spur of the moment post
Graham MacAree - January 18, 2010
Alright then, I thought there might be a handy tool for that that I just don't know about.
By the way, I fully endorse the more frequent Graham posts here as well as on the Sounders SBN blog.
lailaihei - January 18, 2010
From memory, his changeup generates a ton of groundballs
His fastball, not so much.
Jeff Sullivan - January 18, 2010
I was kind of hoping for a year-by-year comparison on how his fastball does on groundballs.
Maybe the decreased speed is more 2-seamers, increasing GBs and thus increasing wFB/C. Maybe the more likely thing is that he’s locating it better and thus improving the walks and strikeouts side on fastballs.
lailaihei - January 18, 2010
The latter, I think
Jeff Sullivan - January 18, 2010
Here is Felix's batted ball distribution by pitch type for 2009
Pitch classifications from Gameday.
vivaelpujols - January 18, 2010
I think it's a little of both
It seems like he’s favoring the two-seamer a little more now, but I think the four-seam velocity has also come down.
Maybe it’s age, maybe it’s conscious, maybe it’s both. Can’t be too upset about the results.
Jeff Sullivan - January 18, 2010
age of felix
I don’t know how to view this. If we are talking about a normal 28-year-old pitcher with 4 years in major, then I can understand a decline in velocity due to age. But Felix is just 23. Do we expect a pitcher at age 23 suffer from velocity decline due to age?
whwang - January 18, 2010
I really doubt that this is something to worry about
No, you don’t normally expect a velocity decline like Felix has shown, but it may just be that he’s slowing it down to get better movement or to locate it better.
Graham MacAree - January 18, 2010
He's maturing right before our eyes.
MY hope is that he’s just not a tosser any more just trying to pump fastball after fastball.
Slurvey - January 18, 2010
Agree
Jeff Sullivan - January 18, 2010
There might be something about pitchers with faster starting points slowing down more quickly than others...
I mean he’s still one of the fastest, including throwing a 2-seamer a hefty bit of the time. Maybe his previous level was just unsustainable for pretty much anybody.
lailaihei - January 18, 2010
He still has the 8th highest fastball in MLB!
Edgar for Pres - January 18, 2010
(For a starter)
Edgar for Pres - January 18, 2010
He also has the fastest curve and change as a starter in MLB
Edgar for Pres - January 18, 2010
And 7th fastest slider
Edgar for Pres - January 18, 2010
Velocity declines from the get-go a little bit
But I wouldn’t worry about those crazy ‘07 peaks – I think that’s just PITCHfx acting funny.
Jeff Sullivan - January 18, 2010
Actually, almost all pitchers lose a lot of velocity in their early 20's
vivaelpujols - January 18, 2010
Speaking of a 2 seam...
There were times last season when his 2 seam fastball would start up at the letters and down the middle, break late end up at the belt (sometimes lower) and on the inside corner. It was basically a 93 MPH Pedro change up.
My guess is that that has something to with those improved numbers. In the big leagues (as Jamie Moyer proved), it’s not about how much movement and velocity, it’s about late movement and location.
Looks like Felix gets it now.
skwid206 - January 19, 2010
Love the image background
Fett42 - January 18, 2010
Someone told me
Yesterday that our King was still a Prince, fisticuffs almost broke out.
Seriously, it’s been an absolute blast to watch Felix, I remember the frustration not so fondly – but, to see him really come into his own has been wonderful. It’s irrational but I hope he pitches for us forever.
I still can’t decide between a Hernandez or Gutierrez jersey.
ungoreatstefan - January 18, 2010
It was a really tough call for me too. I went with Guti though.
Although mine was a shirt, not an actual jersey. When I’ve actually got enough cash for a jersey, I’ll have to think long and hard about it.
gregrabble - January 18, 2010
I, for one, am ecstatic about the return of the Royal Curve
Jeff Sullivan - January 18, 2010
I think the changeup's more fun
Graham MacAree - January 18, 2010
Me too
but this way he gets to keep all four pitches!
Jeff Sullivan - January 18, 2010
His changeup is going to average over 90 mph next season.
Matthew - January 18, 2010
In 2014 it's going to hit 100
Graham MacAree - January 18, 2010
Wait, it's back???
EnglishMariner - January 19, 2010
His fastball has lost horizontal movement
Does this help his command of his fastball?
Its also weird he saw a drop of pitches in the zone and a drop of first pitch strikes.
Edgar for Pres - January 18, 2010
According to PitchFx data
Felix threw his 2-seamer almost 4% more often than in 2008. Along with the decrease in velocity, there was naturally a jump in the movement on that pitch. With that kind of movement and the ability to locate, it’s no wonder his fastball value went up.
FTx
2007
2008
2009
didycel - January 18, 2010
oops meant to post this
FTx FTz
2007 0.5 -1.8
2008 -3.0 -0.6
2009 -8.2 4.2
didycel - January 18, 2010
I AM GOOD LUCK
Graham MacAree - January 18, 2010
I love you Graham
Slurvey - January 18, 2010
THANK YOU!
lailaihei - January 18, 2010
FanGraphs uses BIS pitch classifications
They are pretty solid, about on par with GameDay’s, but they are not going to be able to tell the difference between a 93 MPH fastball and a 90 MPH change. Felix definitely threw more two-seamers/changeups last year, so I’m guessing that BIS has classified a lot of those as the fastball. In that case, his actual fastball velocity might not be getting much worse, but the changeups and two-seamers getting mixed up with them will artificially lower it.
vivaelpujols - January 18, 2010
Makes sense
didycel - January 19, 2010
"They've never spent hours agonising whether Felix will ever pull it all together..."
God, I got so tired of arguing with people about this over the past few years. There were the people who expected Felix to be a finished pitcher at 21. There were the people who thought he should go back down to Tacoma to learn, well, something (it was never clear what, exactly, beyond the boredom of striking out AAA hitters). There were the people who insisted that if he hadn’t figured it out after a couple of years in the majors he never would.
It was hell arguing with these people. Pointing out his youth didn’t help; neither did the dearth of comparables because so few pitchers made the show that young. The one-hitter against Boston shut them up for a while and then they were asking why he didn’t do that every start. They had been hearing about Felix for a while and they expected, I don’t know, prime era Pedro or something. In that context 2009 was so delicious because it finally shut them the hell up.
wandergeist - January 20, 2010
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