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Some stuff to think about on a day with nothing to think about:

  • Not that I'm going to provide constant updates, but because there's not much else to say at the moment, the BBTF HoF ballot tracker has been updated, and Edgar's at 46.6% (34) of 73. I think it's going to happen. I think it's going to happen you guys. It might take as long as the Bavasi Era did, but, again, this is a fine first showing. For the record I will choose to ignore every other name on the ballot because I don't give a shit about any of them.

  • Remember Aroldis Chapman? You can forget about him now, because he's not coming here. (Edit: to Seattle, I mean)

  • Two weeks ago, Matthew posted a poll asking for the identity of your least favorite Mariner. 2828 votes later - much to the chagrin of Ryan Divish - Rob Johnson is the popular pick, drawing more votes than #2 (Jose Lopez) and #3 (Bill Hall) combined. Turns out stat-friendly fans don't take kindly to a player who can't hit or pitch or play defense. We don't know for sure, of course, if Johnson's really as bad as his numbers, but I'm already sick of the Great CERA Watch Of 2010, and it hasn't even been posted yet. Hypothesis: it's not that Rob Johnson's style is good, but rather that Kenji Johjima's style was unusual, and Johnson's not really much better than any other white guy.

    You Johnson fans out there are going to love this attempt to project the value of blocking balls. Guess who sucks!

  • It is interesting to see that Lopez came in second. I mean, I get it. He hacks. He never draws a walk. His defense isn't great. He occasionally conveys a sense of carelessness. He should be better than he is. Overall, he's a frustrating player. But then, Adrian Beltre's a frustrating player, too, and most everyone here loved the guy. I'm not going to criticize anyone's likes or dislikes, since I loved Ben Broussard and didn't really care for Raul Ibanez - these things are irrational. I just hope that people are able to keep separate who they like and who they understand to contribute value. You can continue to dislike Jose Lopez as much as you want. Just please keep in mind that he's an ~average player making little money.

    Along the same lines, I've seen it argued in several places that Jack Zduriencik would like to trade Lopez because Lopez "isn't Jack's kind of player." Now, the two points here are probably true. I imagine Z would like to trade Lopez, and Lopez isn't Z's kind of player. But there's no causal relationship. They're separate statements. While I'm sure Z would prefer a second baseman with better range and a greater idea of the strike zone, that's not reason enough to deal Lopez; he'll only sell him if he can get value back, because whether he likes Lopez's approach or not, Z is aware of his contributions. Style can be important, but overall value - that's the trump card.

  • The most amazing thing I've seen in a long long time:

    Riveraeraplus_medium 

  • Late update: been meaning to mention this again, but for anyone who didn't already know, LL's on Twitter. Been on for a while. Love it. And though everyone on the planet's been through an anti-Twitter phase all his or her own, at this point, if you fancy yourself a serious baseball fan, it's required reading.

0 recs  |  108 comments

Comments

Source on Chapman?
Other teams simply appear far more interested

and Chapman’s not going to choose Seattle over somewhere more comfortable.

Ah

I interpreted “here” as Major League Baseball

Apparently we think alike.

I immediately searched the web to find which country he was intending to go play in.

"Overall, he's a frustrating player. But then, Adrian Beltre's a frustrating player, too, and most everyone here loved the guy."

This is exactly why I was confused about Lopez getting so many votes too.

Dislike doesn't have to be rational.

Also, Beltre is the best at something while Lopez derives his value from being ok at a lot of things. It’s never that exciting to watch Lopez be average all over the field but Beltre’s defense is a constant joy.

And the appeal.
Cup, No Cup

See, Adrian would take one in the sack for the team, where Lopez hopes Ichiro can get to the infield to catch the pop-up that barely left the infield:-)

Just kidding! I think it’s because Lopez always has that stoned look to his face like Sam Perkins.

Big Smooth!

I’m a Nuggets fan and even I loved Perkins.

In fairness, Beltre was better and had a million likable idiosyncrasies
Of course. Still, it's not like Lopez is an awful player. He, just like Beltre, manages to be fairly valuable despite having awful plate discipline.
Before anyone points out my poor wording, yes, I know Beltre is significantly more valuable.
He also made about 5x as much as Lopez did,

so there’s that in Jose’s favor.

Yeah, and that's another thing. Personally, I'm just glad to have a ~2 win player for so cheap.
Which I'm now realizing is pretty much exactly what Jeff said.
Lopez just needs to start pointing at the 3rd base ump.
Jeff, you should make this bold!

“You can continue to dislike Jose Lopez as much as you want. Just please keep in mind that he’s an ~average player making little money.”

Yeah we get it, Dan Quisenberry was good

Stop forcing this down our throats.

C'mon!

he was also a poet!

Regarding Twitter

Just got onto the twitter scene in order to get to all these juicy MLB rumors a fraction of a second faster. If anyone knows some good people to follow, I would much appreciate your input. Already following most of the local forces (Dave, Jason, LL, etc.)

.

@msea1, @cwyers, @BtBScore, @aarongleeman, @mccoveychron, @devil_fingers, @Ken_Rosenthal, @fangraphs, @conorglassey, @BaseballAmerica, @jonahkeri, @ProBallNW, @jazayerli, @MacAree, @jh_moore, @csmariners, @MLBONFOX, @keithlaw, @royalsreview, @TNTmariners, @gbakermariners, @shannondrayer, @JPosnanski, @BtB_Sky, @draysbay

Also, not informative but hilarious: @OldHossRadbourn

I think there is a list including all of these people as well, to save you some time.
Yeah if you wanna take the big girl's blouse way out
No Will Carroll?
I'll admit that the gimmick is intriguing but when it comes down to it I just don't think porn-addicted manatees are all that interesting
As for Lopez

Did anyone say they dislike him because he sucks? I dislike Lopez, but that’s more because I like the rest of the team. I would never argue he sucks, but I thought disliking and sucking were separate.

It’s funny though that a few people want to trade him, what seems like for anything, so that we can sign Orlando Hudson. I get that the skill sets are different, but they’re probably in for ~2-2.5 WAR seasons. Averegish.

I think most of the Lopez votes were to needle certain memebers of the readership
I don't think this is true at all
I just don't see how he could be picked over Johnson

maybe its an indication of how likable the team is.

I would bet that anyone advocating a Lopez trade is doing so because Hudson is available.

Not because they prefer Hudson to Lopez, but that they prefer Hudson + hopefully something neat for Lopez to just Lopez.

If you can get assets and replace his production for relatively cheap, why not do it?

(Sorry, sb)

The only problem with that

is that the FA isn’t exclusive to just the Mariners. You’d be selling Lopez in a market where you won’t get full value (assuming that whoever he’s dealt to isn’t blind/dumb).

Sure, but I'm working under the assumption that the front office isn't going to dump Lopez for the sake of trading him.
I would expect the FO to operate like that as well; I'm simply talking about some comments I've seen on various sites :)

The point I’m trying to make is that I really don’t see a clear upgrade from Lopez > Hudson, like I think some people do. Possibly half a win?

A lot of fans seem to have vastly different views of Lopez. Either you think he’s the ‘big bat’ because of his HR total or you think he’s not that good because he’s not JackZ’s player. Kind of funny how M’s fans seem divided on a player who’s basically the definition of ‘average’.

For what it's worth

Hudson is a much better fit for the park and the lineup

Again I assume people are not really thinking of it as

Hudson > Lopez but rather Hudson+Liriano > Lopez+, oh I dunno, 12M/2yr or whatever Hudson could sign for.

Then you’re getting the one win or so upgrade at second plus something like a win upgrade in the rotation with a good chance at even more, and the cost is the difference in the two contracts.

So the question is why don't the twins sign Hudson instead
Money
And Lopez looks like a good match

For Target Field — the LF dimensions are smaller than the Metrodome, and the Metrodome was already more of hitter’s park than Safeco, especially to LF. Of course that could help Hudson, too, but then you come back to the money issue.

(Of course Target Field’s park factor will be more than just its dimensions — on the one hand you’ll have higher temps in mid-summer than you get in the Metrodome; on the other hand, you’ll have higher humidity too. And then you have the potential for cold at the beginning and end of the season, too)

Twitter

Wow, you got a lot of baseball writers following you, but most impressively you have the Ottawa Senators, RR-S and Nick Swisher(?).

Senators probably have a bot like some teams do where if you Tweet about them they automatically follow you.

Just sayin’.

Huh ok

but Swisher?

I checked who Nick Swisher follows, I didn't see lookout landing.
Ah so

it is Jeff who follows Swisher, not vice versa. Ditto for the rest. Honestly, I am a little proud in a crotchety sort of way that I have no idea how to use that site.

What?

I thought I blocked Swisher. Fucker annoys me.

I wish I'd never come across his Twitter because holy shit what a douche
It was a sad day for me too
It's weird that Twitter endears me to Katy Perry and makes me dislike Nick Swisher
Nothing could possibly endear me to Katy Perry
Her music is pretty catchy
Some good, some bad

you might say she’s hot and she’s cold

Her music instantly endeared itself to me when the Mariners played Hot N Cold for Brandon Morrow on Opening Day.
I have a kitchen knife with your name on it.
My family manufactures sake, not knives
Her "I Kissed A Girl"

Gets the bigots’ panties in a twist, and that’s always a good thing.

I thought it was hilarious/ironic/sad when she appeared on “So You Think You Can Dance” doing that song and got a bunch of small-minded people all upset in the very same summer that “Hairspray” was in theaters depicting the last wave of bigotry in dance.

I'd love to see Edgar in the HOF

But its gonna amaze me if McGwire doesn’t get in. The only reason he doesn’t make it in is steriods which is kind of a shame. Oh well….HoF is run by people and people aren’t perfect.

I'd bet my house on McGwire getting in

after a few years of being the hitting coach for the Cardinals and answering questions from reporters.

Being a human recluse allowed the reporters to just make up their own BS about the man. Now that he’s actually in an official position with the team, answering questions, I’d see him slowly increasing his vote totals till he gets in, oh, in like 2013-14.

I, or we, just can't understand how you Americans can be so graceful

to sporters who use(d) steriods.

I think it has to do with the fact that the line between natural and unnatural training regimens has become blurred

and pretty much all pro athletes are guilty to some degree. There is no reason to demonize those players singled out by the media when everyone is guilty.

I agree, but should the line therefor be erased?
So if you agree that there is no reason to demonize the few players singled out by the media

then why

I, or we, just can’t understand how you Americans can be so graceful to sporters who use(d) steriods.

No, I agreed on the tact that the line has become blurred
Yeah I didn't really mean to start a discussion about steriods

We probably shouldn’t talk about this here otherwise we’ll get off-topic and I don’t think any of us really want another steriods debate.

I don't understand why anyone cares
Well, I care, because I love sport.

And the achievements of sportsmen, not of the scientists.

Steroids do not equal 100% of science
90% doesn't equal 100% eithter, but it comes pretty close
Sou you are saying that 90% of the science that goes into baseball is devoted for steroids

Because I would say that is not true

Following that train of thought you'd like to go back to the dead ball era
It wouldn't amaze me at all

Most of the media will do whatever it takes to sell papers and draw attention tot hemselves, whether not it means McGwire is the best/worst person in the game at any moment.

Alright, Go Edgar!
Matt Weiters is very awesome apparently.
I don't think "Most Hated" means "Hated." There wasn't exactly a "I like all of them" option.

$10,000 is worse than $1,000,000 but that doesn’t make it bad.

But this team isn't 100% likable
Of those that were on the list I think I hated nobody.

Though left with the choices, I probably would have chosen one of the names rather than the “someone else” option, because I like clear answers.

You know what the real problem is?

Jack has turned over such a huge portion of the roster that none of the players have been around long enough to become dislikable. The ones who have been around don’t suck or are in the pen and don’t see the field enough to develop a hater base.

I’m guessing that by the time the season is up, depending on how playing time is divvied up and performance and so on the ‘i hate’ leaderboard may be something like Johnson, Hall, Bradley, League, Snell.

"Who bothers you the most" would've been a much easier poll for many people.
I read twitter almost exclusively for Lookout Landing tweets.
I dreamt Jack z got fired

When Howard Lincoln was giving a tour of the team offices to some corporate sponsors during after hours and they found Jack in situ banging some chick. I saw the whole scene live (this being a dream) and couldn’t decide whether I should be angry, happy that he was around long enough to at least pull the lee and Bradley deals off, or aroused.

Sorry. Didn’t know where else to put this.

Wow, if ever a comment begged for a Bill Simmons

You know, a “yup, these are my readers”

Your therapist maybe?
How useful is ERA+ as a stat?

I’ve not really come across it too much before.

About as useful as ERA, I'd imagine
It takes some external factors into account, but not all.

It also overstates the value of relievers.

Depends

Pitchers ERAs tend to be almost as useful as FIP over the course of a long career

I don't think there's anything like FIP+ available

so its pretty much the only tool for comparing pitchers across decades.

Over a full career sample it's quite good
I find it kinda funny how the Chapman hype/market has more or less collapsed.
I bet Chapman would be better off if the WBC hadn't happened
Why?

Chapman showcasing his abilities in a U.S. stadium with millions of viewers was the best thing possible.

He was wild, his secondary stuff was iffy and his velocity was lower than advertised.

I think if there were more mystery about him and less of a record of how he reacts to game situations teams might see him as more of a complete product. Impossible to say for sure of course…

I think teams interested in throwing millions of bucks at him would have scouted him fully regardless of the WBC. All the WBC help achieve was raise his profile with the average fan.
I think its different facing major league hitters

he might look great in the pen

He hit 100 at the WBC and hasn't hit it on the gun since defecting

without the WBC, no one believes that he actually has a 100 mph fastball, and no one is interested in throwing him a $15-20M or whatever the hell he’s asking for contract

When I went and saw him at the WBC he was in the low 90s.

Not sure if it was just the Petco gun.

RJ posted an article on Fangraphs right after Chapman pitched

he averaged mid-90s, but hit 100 at least once

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/introducing-aroldis-chapman/

Yup, averaged mid nineties

and had little idea where it was going. But whatever. Yu Darvish (sorry if I got the name wrong) was far more impressive in the WBC, Chapman looked very very rough if talented. My thought was that having a poor showing in a high pressure situation dispelled some of the reputation but I may be wrong. Meh.

I thought Chapman looked terrible
He threw the ball fast and had no idea where it was going

plus he’s left-handed. It was at least intriguing.

Having an idea where the ball is going is kinda important
It's a lot easier to figure out how to throw a pitch where you want it

then to add 10 mph to your fastball

As cautionary tales go, Colt Griffin is a pretty good one
5.6 BB/9.....against Cuban hitters.....

Good lord. It doesn’t matter that you throw 100 when you’re that wild.

I'm just imagining how impossible it would be to rack up 5.6 BB/9 against lineups of 9 Yunis.
I miss my days at the helm of the LL Twitter.

Also, Jeff, check your email!

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