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Historical Bullpen Facts

Nothing major here. It's just funny how you can be looking at Bobby Ayala's player page at one moment, and then one thing leads to another and you're working on an eight-page spreadsheet.

Note that none of the following numbers are adjusted for park.

  • In 1998, Bobby Ayala went 1-10, blew nine saves, and ran up a 7.29 ERA. He also ran a 4.02 FIP, a .381 BABIP, and allowed a slightly below-average rate of line drives. By no means was Ayala a particularly great reliever over his time in Seattle, but he does not deserve his reputation. Blame bad luck and bad defense. His K/9 in 1994 was 12.1.

  • The 1999 Mariner bullpen struck out 324 batters, walked 295, and beaned 29, for an adjusted K/BB of 1.00. They also had a .399 OBP against. The 1999 Mariner bullpen took the average hitter and made him Nick Johnson. Jose Mesa had a .366 OBP against in 39 save situations. 

  • The worst Mariner bullpen of all time, by ERA, was that 1999 edition, at 5.94. That was also the worst Mariner bullpen by ERA vs. league average. Using FIP, we get 1999 again (5.34), but using FIP vs. league average, we end up with 1992 (4.55 vs. 3.71). Neither the 1992 nor the 1999 Mariner bullpens could throw strikes, but at least the 1999 Mariner bullpen did a decent job of keeping the ball in the yard.

  • The best Mariner bullpen of all time, by ERA, was the 2001 edition, at 3.04. Same for ERA vs. league average. Using FIP, we get 1981 (3.58), and using FIP vs. league average, we get 2003 (3.66 vs. 4.27). Looking back, it's interesting how the bullpen went from nightmare to decent to awesome as quickly as it did. Remember, though, that those relievers from the early aughts got a huge boost from the defense. The 2001 bullpen had a .251 BABIP. .251. Just two years earlier, it was .332.

  • The 1978 Mariner bullpen posted an adjusted K/BB of 0.92. That means they walked and beaned more batters than they struck out. It's not as woeful as the 1999 figure, since strikeout rates for relievers have climbed from the mid-5's to the mid-7's over the past three decades, but it's still impressive in all the worst ways. 

  • Going back to 1977, the best bullpen by FIP vs. league average belonged to the 2003 Dodgers, and the worst belonged to the 1982 Twins. Those Twins were undone by a home run rate that was literally twice the average. The Dodgers, meanwhile, struck out a batter an inning.

  • Best and worst by K/BB vs. league average: 1994 Expos :( and 1989 Tigers. The 1999 Mariners come in second-worst.

  • Through its history, the Mariner bullpen has posted a 4.17 ERA, a 4.24 FIP, and a 1.7 K/BB against league averages of 3.93, 4.07, and 1.8.

  • Since 1977, Dodger relievers have posted an FIP 10% better than the league average, while Tiger relievers have come in 8% below the league average. Dodger relievers have posted a 3.53 sum ERA over 33 seasons. Even given the NL adjustment and a pitcher-friendly park, that's crazy.

  • Tampa Bay relievers have a 1.7 franchise K/BB, against a league average of 1.9.

I have no idea why I did this.

2 recs  |  56 comments

Comments

Because it's fun.
Neat look, Jeff.
I wasn't following baseball yet so I missed Bobby Ayala Live

But holy crap, .381 BABIP. That’s horrifying.

Bobby Ayala Live was responsible for some of my most agonizing sports moments (non XL division)

I don’t care if he was ‘unlucky’ – he was still a 3 true outcomes pitcher, and that’s not cool.

x

We had Derek Lowe?
We had Jason Varitek and then Heathcliff Slocumb too.

And David Ortiz.

No, we had David Arias.
I loved the Scott Sanders pick-up when it happened....

Oops.

HE WAS SO AWESOME IN 1996!!!
That's why I loved the pick-up when it happened!
Yeah, what happened there?

FIP between 3.75-4.30 from 1993-1995, 2.94 FIP in 1996…then disaster.

For whatever reason he was pasted with homers and never recovered
I am embarassed by my reaction

I remember calling one of my friends and saying something similar to “He strikes out so many batters he’s like the right-handed Randy Johnson.” Man, I wish I’d been right. That would’ve been like a fantasy rotation of Felix and Cliff Lee.

Some day someone will type just the right earch terms into google

and find so much more than they’d hoped about Mariner bullpens.

Isn't that what Jeff did?

And with stated outcome too.

My guess is Jeff used B-R and Excel

and put a number of hours into it. My hypothetical will have a much easier time.

I'm sure you are correct.

My sense of humor is often misunderstood.

Or maybe I'm just a numbnuts
Interesting article

Did anything make you specifically think of the 1999 Mariners? Now that I think about it, off the top of my head I don’t remember much of that season at all besides it being Junior’s last season.

All I remember about the 1999 season was the last game at the kingdome.

More specifically, I remember David Segui’s kid (who was about 5 years old) throwing the first pitch and firing a strike from the mound. I also remember vividly a play in which Royce Clayton fouled a pitch off his foot in the box but the umps ruled it a ball in play and he was thrown out as he stood there assuming it was foul. The rangers’ manager came out to argue it and he was clearly right, but being wrong has never been an impediment to an umpire’s authority, so the call stood.

But other than that, I can’t remember a single thing from that season. I don’t even remember the first game in Safeco (I do remember MY first game in Safeco, but nothing about the game itself, just how great it was to finally have a good stadium)

Oh shit, thats right Safeco opened that year

I went to the first game we actually won. The first homer, first Grand Slam, etc against the Padres. Yeah I remember the Segui thing too, I think he had face paint on or something, and as an eleven year old kid I thought that was fucking lame.

I remember how great it was to be at the inaugural game at Safeco Field

and how agonizing it was to watch Jose Mesa spoil the ending.

The two things that come to mind about 1999 are both bad.

Watching Meche rack up innings, and Jose Mesa. Every Saturday or Sunday the sports page would print the innings totals for the pitchers, I remember looking at his with a sense of dread.

The final game also had ...

a JR home run & a swell catch, a streaker, and Edgar being tossed for arguing a strike call

My non-stat impression of Ayala was how inconistent he was

Often he would thrrow pitches that were filthy unhittable. Then in the middle of an at bat, he would lose his command entirely. Suddenly he could no longer throw strikes with his bad shit, then he would either start throwing meatballs or miss the plate entirely.

I don't remember Ayala's command sucking.

I remember his splitter not breaking consistently. He always seemed able to throw strikes, but I can remember a lot of hanging splitters that got mashed.

Those late 90s years were fun

if you liked dingers.

The first interleague games against Colorado were awesome

from that perspective. Or that’s what my memory suggests, anyway – I seem to remember a game in which we were down 9-5 and won, but that may just be brain-fog. I always loved those games because I knew that their pitching was as bad as ours.

I just finished reading Joe Posnanski's look back on the Royals past decade.

http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2010/01/02/the-royal-decade/#more-2965

Very well written if you have the time, and you need it, it’s long. But a look at their bullpen in 2000 reveals that they were able to best the M’s of 1999.

“I remember hosting an event featuring Bob Costas and David Glass that year, and I asked each of them what they thought created the absurd rise in home runs. And someone in the crowd shouted "Ricky Botallico," the Royals closer at the time. It was a good answer. An even better (if more obscure) answer would have been Botallico’s bullpen mate Chris Fussell, who gave up an amazing 18 homers in 70 innings. That would have set an obscure and made-up record (most homers allowed in 70 innings or fewer) but another Royals pitcher, Miguel Batista joined the team in late April and gave up 17 homers in just 57 innings — add the two homers Batista had already given up, voila, he allowed 19 in 65 1/3 innings.”

God Batista was so damn bad.
No defense in the world can help that stat.
"The 1999 Mariner bullpen took the average hitter and made him Nick Johnson. Jose Mesa had a .366 OBP against in 39 save situations. "

oh, yes. Mesa is one of my main memories of ’99. Other guys had their moments but Mesa, if for no other reason on Opening Day of Safeco. Moyer pitches 8 innings, gives up 1 run. Mariners manage to scrape 2 runs off Andy Ashby. Mesa comes in and pitches 1/3 of an inning in the 9th. Walks 4, including the tying & the go ahead run.

Jose Mesa was the reason I irrationally loved Kaz Sasaki.

Maybe not as much as Robert…

I liked the time Mesa was so terrible that Lou pulled him in favor of John Fucking Mabry in order to show him up.
All the bullpens of the 1990's were the reason I loved Kaz

as a starving man loves wonder-bread

It was specifically Mesa for me.

Even at the age of ten I hated Jose Mesa with a fiery passion. He was my Bobby Ayala.

Robert just likes Asians
You beat me to it.

F-ing Joe Table! Man, I was so bummed.

Team BABIP (2001) .269

Best in MLB by 18 points.

Holy crap. The 2009 team (which was amazing defensively) posted a .280 BABIP (best in MLB by 3 points).

And the 1999 version was 5th worst in MLB at .317. The Reds were best at .269.

Same M’s 1999 to 2001:
David Bell (2B in 99 to 3B in 01)
Dan Wilson
Revolving Door (LF)

Changes:
CF- Griffey to Cameron
SS- A-Rod to Guillen
2B- David Bell to Boone
3B- Russ Davis to Bell
1B- Segui to Olerud
RF- Buhner to Ichiro

I forgot just how much turnover the team had those years. I went to a number of the 2001 games in Anaheim which was fun. Saw Freddie’s pre and post 9/11 starts.

Random season,

Robert Ramsay’s 2000. 40 walks in 50.1 innings, 32 strikeouts and a 3.40 ERA. Robert Ramsay would later go on to such great things as having brain cancer.

Does anyone know what is the lowest 162-game team BABIP in the modern era?

And the highest would be interesting as well. I’d try retrosheets but it’s blocked on this computer…

I hate Bobby Ayala

Probably my most hated Mariner. Maybe he was unlucky but I’d bet most of the problem was that he was really bad at pitching.

He was a jerk to me when I was a kid.

I walked down and asked him for an autograph during BP, he was sitting by himself in the “bullpen” at the Kingdome. He pretended not to hear me, so I asked him again and he disgustedly taps the “do not approach players for autographs during the game” sign without looking at me. ~ 2 hours before the game starts.

Holy cow

That happened to me, too! The exact same thing.

Most of the other players were cool about it (yay Edwin Nunez!).

Not Mr. Bigshot Bobby though! Couldn’t be bothered during space-out time!

This is 100% unique to you
I hated him because when I was 10-13 or so I still thought ERA and Wins were the end all be all of pitchers

And my dad hated him so that basically sealed the deal.

I think I would have hated him regardless of my knowledge of sabermetrics.
There was also the blown saves
And getting drunk and putting his fist through a hotel window in Chitown in '96.
That made me hate him less

It made him seem kinda pathetic, and it’s hard to hate pathetic.

Should we ignore Bobby Ayala's postseason stats

They caused me such great pain at the time.

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