According to MLBAM, Mark Lowe's average fastball in 2008 was 94.36 miles per hour. In 2009, it went up to 96.22mph. It was one of the largest jumps in baseball last season which caught me by surprise because I have always thought of Mark Lowe as a hard thrower, dating back to his frequent hits of triple digits during his debut season. That he could gain almost two miles per hour on his average fastball in a season intrigued me.
I used a 50-pitch rolling sample to generate the above graph. It is quite clear that he was faster on average in 2009 than in 2008 but what further interests me is how consistent he was in 2008 (aside from the start which may have been injury-related given the ending of his 2007 season) compared to 2009. This past season he was constantly moving around the speed charts.
I don't know why. I cannot even really think of a way to begin thinking of why, no matter what there is going to be too much subjective noise since I cannot quantify how Mark Lowe's elbow felt on any certain day. About the only thing that I felt was worth checking was Lowe's usage pattern. In 2008, 46% of Mark Lowe's appearances came on either zero or one days rest. Last season it was 49% so no big difference there.
Maybe it was just a factor of Mark Lowe being further removed from his surgery and healing up, though that does not offer up an explanation for the increased variance in speeds. No matter why, it will be something worth watching for in 2010. And while on the subject of Mark Lowe, can we take a moment to appreciate just how much of a success story he has been? This guy has come back from unprecedented elbow surgery and not only regained his velocity above and even beyond his 2006 numbers, but has even performed at an above average level for an AL reliever. Two years ago Mark Lowe might never have thrown another Major League pitch. Amazing.
2 recs | 60 comments
He may have been above average but that didn't seem to keep me from feeling uneasy any time he came in
Dewey N - January 30, 2010
Is there any possibility the new coaching staff is responsible for any of this? Conditioning programs, the like?
Without winging out into lala speculation land, the timing is probably just coincidence. But then maybe other pitchers on the staff have some anomalies that show up at the same time? I’m really against outright speculation here, I’m trying to think of serious, tangible ways to tie that together.
Kermit. - January 30, 2010
Diabetes?
Or maybe game situations. If he came in with runners on, maybe he turned up the gas. But if he had the lead and had a quick inning, maybe he didn’t throw as hard? Tough to say.
basebliman - January 30, 2010
Whoa, he was worth 1.3 WAR last year
OlSalty - January 30, 2010
Those high pressure situations where he came in and gave up runs made him look a lot worse than what he actually was.
Slurvey - January 30, 2010
I'm uneasy about either SC or FG's WAR for relievers
Matthew - January 30, 2010
Volatile!
Slurvey - January 30, 2010
I'm not sure either are correctly computed.
Matthew - January 30, 2010
Could you elaborate as to why?
Dewey N - January 30, 2010
I'm guessing it has to do with...leverage?
Jeff Sullivan - January 30, 2010
I need to redo the WAR in general on StatCorner to make some things better
and like some others, I’m not comfortable with the chaining that goes on at FanGraphs that’s central to RP WAR.
I need to run a study to see if pitchers pitch significantly different in differently leveraged situations.
Matthew - January 30, 2010
Ah cool
Are you in favor of including leverage into WAR for all players?
Dewey N - January 30, 2010
Good luck on that one.
I can’t even wrap my head around exactly how someone would even go about that. You’ve got quite a a challenge to seperate the signal from the noise.
nathaniel dawson - January 30, 2010
So how would you weight each situation?
For example a high leverage situation vs.the pitcher entering a new inning.
Slurvey - January 30, 2010
FIP for RP isn't quite as useful either right?
Edgar for Pres - January 30, 2010
It doesn't seem right from watching him at least
OlSalty - January 30, 2010
Mark Lowe...
Has been one of my favorite M’s for various reasons. I hope he ends up getting some headlines as a closer (be it for us or some one else) at some point because the guy deserves it. Here’s to the M’s going deep, and Lowe getting credit as the awesome set up guy.
dkulich - January 30, 2010
I think either League or Aardsma will be the set-up guy this year.
Eyeball Kid - January 30, 2010
Wooo Mark Lowe love.
I remember when he first came up got into a bases loaded jam only to get out of a jam.
I also fell in love with that slider, that amazing slider.
Slurvey - January 30, 2010
So my first thought was to wonder if maybe Lowe was thowing harder because he was being put in tougher situations
I made a similar graph, except I did a rolling average of Lowe’s leverage index for his previous 10 appearances, and here it is right below yours (sorry in advance for the size):
I didn’t have your data so I couldn’t get a numberical correlation, but visually that’s pretty striking.
Of course, its just as likel that the velocity and not the leverage index is the independent variable. But its still interesting.
Fett42 - January 30, 2010
Makes sense
There were far more high leverage situations in 2009 in general because we were out of most of the games in 2008 by the time we got to the pen, and we had all those 1 run games last year. Maybe he was pushing his stuff in response to that.
OlSalty - January 30, 2010
Definitely interesting
Yeah, my guess would be that he started getting more high-leverage chances after he established his velocity level, but it could be a little of both.
Jeff Sullivan - January 30, 2010
Yeah could be adrenaline is giving him an extra mile or two
Edgar for Pres - January 30, 2010
It was probably the gorilla suit.
I Lick Squirrels - January 30, 2010
I love seeing Mark Lowe posts
I thought watching him last year that he was really starting to come into his own. I’ve had a good feeling about him for a long time, and I think he might be on the verge of exploding this year.
Umm……my god that sounded gay.
nathaniel dawson - January 30, 2010
Man love is an LL staple. I wouldn't worry about it.
Teej - January 30, 2010
I was being pro-active.
I didn’t want to leave something that choice hanging out there for someone to jump on.
Umm……I better just shut up.
nathaniel dawson - January 30, 2010
Could it be that early on his control was a little iffy when he throw the ball that hard.
Or he could be channeling King Leonidas.
InSpokane - January 30, 2010
Double L, Double A
Lowe, League, Aardsma
That’s a 7-8-9 I can believe in.
Not that they should need all of them two starts out of every five (hopefully), but still…
wandergeist - January 30, 2010
Lowe and Aardsma are both pretty scary.
abender20 - January 30, 2010
And League
Has the toughest pitch in baseball.
wandergeist - January 30, 2010
So Tony Belngino says.
msb - January 30, 2010
LOWE IS AWESOME
Joethewest - January 30, 2010
Do you mean for opposing teams, or for M's fans?
I’m guessing both are true.
Terminator X - February 1, 2010
I think that a threesome of League/Sherrill/Aardsma looks more appealing. Dodgers are said to want to move Sherrill’s salary. A straight up swap for Lowe would provide them salary relief, while helping the M’s to better balance their bullpen.
Sherrill was pretty awesome in that role at Safeco before, and demonstrated for the Dodgers last year that he has plenty left. Given the propensity for left-handed hitters to do better at Safeco bringing in a shutdown lefty makes a lot of sense…
shadow_watch - January 30, 2010
Sherrill isn't that much better than Lowe and he costs way too much.
Another lefty would be nice, but that’s not a swap I would want made and can’t envision the team making.
(Also, please use the subject line in the future. Thanks!)
Aaron Campeau - January 30, 2010
Is the difference worth $3.5 MM to us?
I love the idea of a great lefty out of the pen too, but that’s a pretty steep price to pay.
nathaniel dawson - January 30, 2010
Any threesome with GS52 I welcome with open arms.
hcoguy - January 31, 2010
Current payroll
The current payroll sits around $87M after paying the minimum salary players. That is about $30M less than what the payroll was on opening day two years ago. While the economy is worse, and Z has done a great job of improving the team while moving salary, I do hope that the budget has room for a couple more moves, including a starting pitcher, and something like a Lowe for Sherrill deal… That would still leave $$ for a midseason move…
shadow_watch - January 30, 2010
Mark Lowe is younger, just about as good and way cheaper.
No thanks.
(Also, please use the reply button. It helps the thread flow)
Kirk - January 30, 2010 via mobile
Mark Lowe is just as good
I’m not sure I concur with that hypothesis. Whereas Lowe blew a lead in at least 10 of 75 appearances and lost 7 games, with 10 blown saves, Sherril blew just 5 saves and lost 1 game in 72 appearances. While the difference in WAR was just 1.4 vs 0.8, I’m not sure that provides an accurate measure of the impact of the blown saves and losses on the Mariners overall record. The difference between blowing 5 games versus 10 games could mean the difference between making the playoffs and watching from home. Plus the Mariners really have no shut-down lefty in their pen. Last year Kelley played that role early because he was able to throw strikes and miss bats. While Lowe had a better year he was still very inconsistent. In spite of the age difference I would still look to improve my team by the 1-2 wins…
shadow_watch - January 30, 2010
Losses and blown saves are stupid statistics to use.
If pitcher A comes into a game with a 1 run lead and gives up a run, he’ll get a blown save. If pitcher B comes into a game with a 3 run lead and gives up 2 runs, he won’t get a blown save. But pitcher B clearly gave up more runs, which isn’t a good thing.
And that’s just the beginning. There’s many more examples where blown saves/losses don’t mean a thing. Focus on stats that actually tell you things about the player’s performance and show you what they might do next season, like FIP, tRA, and WAR. Looking at those numbers, Lowe is as good as Sherrill, if not better. A lefty in the pen would be nice, but not at the expense of trading a good, young, and cheap player for one who is older, more expensive, and not any better.
I Lick Squirrels - January 30, 2010
Losses and blown saves are stupid statistics
I respectively disagree. For a late in ning reliever, his job is to come in and protect the lead, not to blow it. I would argue that your example is stupid. If a reliever gives up a run but protects the lead, I am perfectly happy because we win the game. That was what I thought the object of the game was. If he loses the lead and we lose, then that probably is a bad thing.
As far as stats go, Sherrill gave up 1/3 the runs and had half the ERA that Lowe did. Now one can argue that this is just a single season worth of stats, but Sherrill was also very productive in Seattle.
I get the age and $$ arguments, but sorry I am not with you on the equal value… The M’s keep getting players for limited outgo in terms of cash (e.g., Byrnes). While I would also go for a starter first, I do believe this is still an interesting scenario that would help their team.
shadow_watch - January 31, 2010
You can't use losses or blown saves to account for pitcher value or predict his value going forwards
That’s why he called them stupid statistics. They’re far to contextual to be of real use in analysis.
Graham MacAree - January 31, 2010
He's using ERA too
Which means his re-education has to go all the way back to the fundamentals.
shadow_watch: You’re not going to get anywhere with your argument until you base it on an understanding of the stats that are respected by the folks around here. Have a look at the links in the BIP and Pitching section of the Standing on the Shoulders of Giants post. Or at least read Dave’s piece at USSM.
wandergeist - January 31, 2010
LH Splits
Wandergeist, thank you for the links. Unfortunately I have yet to find splits for stats like FIP and xFIP, which is what this argument is really about.
I will use batters stats instead. Against left-handed hitters Sherrill has an OBP and OPS which blows away not only Lowe, but Aardsma and League as well. It also shows why Vargas and Olson are not the answer.
Pitcher Avg OBP SLG OPS
Sherrill .128 .186 .154 .340
Lowe .253 .335 .466 .801
Aardsma .197 .312 .250 .562
League .270 .323 .461 .784
Olson .275 .362 .451 .812
Vargas .290 .333 .505 .838
If I were a manager and had a late game situation where I needed to get a lefthanded hitter out to preserve a lead, I sure as hell would rather have Sherrill out there instead of Lowe, Aardsma or League. If you look at all those losses and blown leads for Lowe I am sure you will find that lefthanded hitters were responsible for much of the damage. Now I understand that the dollars may not make a lot of sense, but this is a team that has shed $30M in payroll from opening day two years ago, and is potentially in a close fight to make the playoffs. FIP and xFIP also have their issues as Dave would admit. While I do believe that WAR does a reasonably good job of assessing a position players worth, I am not sure that it does a great job for situational players like this, where a game is often won or lost over an at-bat or two. Getting that left-handed bat out is of value, and the M’s really do not have that guy in their pen. And they play in a park, as Dave showed, which obviously favors lefthanded hitters. I think you are underestimating the value here, but I do respect the opinions and enjoy the discussion. Thanks.
shadow_watch - January 31, 2010
Limited moves possible
I would also make the point that the M’s have little potential at this point to really improve their club much more in the near term. Aside from adding another starting pitcher, which I believe they will, this represents one of the few options left. Maybe you save the money and wait for the trade deadline.
shadow_watch - January 31, 2010
Record M's
When the M’s set the record with 116 wins, they benefited greatly from a pair of left / right combos in Sasaki/Rhoades and Nelson/Charlton. They effectively shortened the game to a 6 inning affair. If the M’s had the lead after 6 innings it was basically over. The current M’s have the potential to have a similar pen if they improve the balance and consistency. But they need a lefty.
shadow_watch - January 30, 2010
They don't need it
It would nice, it would probably help them, but the difference is just not all that great. The difference in salary, however, is. If the Mariners have more money to spend, there are probably better places to look for an upgrade.
nathaniel dawson - January 31, 2010
One thing Bavasi was good at
Was putting together a cheap, effective bullpen. He didn’t spend a lot on overvalued relievers in free agency, and he didn’t trade for them either. Zduriencik not only doesn’t trade for overvalued relievers, he gets other teams to trade for the ones the M’s have (hiya, Omar, how’s that working out for ya?) If Bavasi didn’t fall into the trap, there’s no way Z does. Heck, it was Bavasi’s people that found GS in the obscurity of the Northern league in the first place, and arguably the only reason he rose to the prominence he did was because Lowe had his arm problem and opened the door. Lowe seems to be fully healthy again, and there are other guys behind him.
GS has real talent, but he’s not unique. You can find that kind of talent without spending a lot of money on it, and you should; all GS has is the “proven” label. The M’s have done a good job of finding “unproven” guys, using them correctly until they acquire the “proven” label, and then flipping them (to GMs who covet the “proven”) for more talent. It would be dumb to reverse that pattern now.
Whichever lefty doesn’t make it in the rotation will fall into that job in the bullpen, where they’ll be more effective than they were as a starter because they’re throwing harder for just one inning.
wandergeist - January 31, 2010
Lefthanded relievers
These are good points. And again, I am not arguing the point that you would likely be overpaying for Sherrill. Although at this point I personally do not believe a couple of million dollars is a big deal for this team. They have been amazingly responsible from a fiscal point of view.
I guess I still subscribe to the old school notion that its good to have one guy in your pen who can effectively get lefties out, particularly when your park is adjusted to favor them. And while there are plenty of good young righthanded arms available for the bullpen, I don’t subscribe to your argument that there are plenty of lefthanded arms. The fact that the M’s brought in a clearing house of arms last year and none of them worked out points to this fallacy.
shadow_watch - January 31, 2010
Love Mark Lowe buuuut.. Is this whats left for us to look at? No offence to the write but the mariners have made such splashes in the news all winter. I want more lol.. We all know that he can be a great pitcher and shows as the season progresses along. I just want ,scratch that, I’m just looking forward to see what Mr. Z has in store for his next move.
To Mathew,
Would you write an interesting piece on the rise of the good Magician of our team that has given us hope again Mr. Z?
I don’t think there Has been an article wrote on his history. I maybe wrong but i think he deserves something.. He’s kept all of Seattle and baseball on there toes all winter.
Thank you.. From a fan!
Articwolf - January 31, 2010
Please do us a favor and use the subject line when posting comments
Thanks!
Jeff Sullivan - January 31, 2010
Also please do not use chatspeak such as 'lol'
Jeff Sullivan - January 31, 2010
It's not all big moves
There are 25 guys on the roster, and more going to Spring Training, and they all deserve a look right now when things are slow. The free agents and mega-trades get all the attention, but that’s not all there is (there’s just not much room left — in time or roster space — for many more of those). Though there are probably one or two more signings to add a little more excitement between now and opening day.
There have been things written about Zduriencik and his history, especially back when he was first hired (a quick bing/google should find you those). Personally, I prefer this version.
Also, you might enjoy this interview
wandergeist - January 31, 2010
Since this is something you are interested in
maybe you ought to do the research and write up and post it? The nice thing about SBN 2.0 is it’s very encouraging of reader contribution.
Bearskin Rugburn - January 31, 2010
This may or may not be a dumb question, but im brave.
Is it possible that since most pitchers mechanics are different from each others…that coming back from surgery can be successful or unsuccessful just based on the mechanics?
I mean, maybe a certain arm slot is easier on the post-surgically repaired arm than others? I know this holds true with injuries (wild deliveries can lead to disaster)…but…the ability to regain velocity or control—-maybe certain mechanics with certain surgeries make a huge difference in the full recovery.
I have no idea how to word that, I just woke up.
Slica - January 31, 2010
FIP and "balance"
While a statistic like FIP does a great job of taking basic parameters like line drives, flyballs, groundballs, etc and converting them into a metric that enables unbiased comparisons of a pitchers net value based on probabilities of an event leading to a hit is does not factor in the important component of strategy or how a balanced pen improves the performance of all members of the group.
As the splits above show, Sherrill is superior to any of the righthanded relievers when it comes to getting lefthanded hitters out. Same can be said for the righties against righthanded hitters. By having better balance, one can reduce the percentage of lefthanded hitters that the righthanded pitchers will face., especially in critical situations in the late innings of a close game. This makes their meaningless stats like ERA and earned runs allowed improve. And overall having a balanced bullpen makes them all better. How a manager uses his bullpen and sets it up for success is critical, and not covered in FIP or some of these stats. While Lowe and Sherrill may be the same player from a FIP perspective, their impact on others in the bullpen and in critical situations against lefthanded hitters is likely to be very different.
shadow_watch - February 1, 2010
Buh?
OlSalty - February 1, 2010
1) You are thinking of tRA, not FIP
2) Yes, we’re all aware that Sherrill is lefthanded, and that having a lefty specialist results in favourable matchups.
3) Sherrill costs a roster spot and not insignificant money, which would be fine if
4) Putting significant effort into upgrading your bullpen when your closer is already in place and you have holes elsewhere isn’t a good use of resources.
Graham MacAree - February 1, 2010
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