World Series Preview

by Jeff Sullivan on Oct 25, 2010 7:08 PM PDT in Looking Ahead

Now it's tradition.

CONTEXT

The Texas Rangers and the San Francisco Giants will face each other in the 2010 World Series, which begins on Wednesday. The Rangers have advanced this far by defeating the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees. The Giants have advanced this far by defeating the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies. Both the Rangers and Giants managed to defeat their opponents by outplaying them in a short series.

KEY PLAYERS

Texas:

Roster

San Francisco:

Roster

Both the Rangers and Giants are filled to the brim with possible difference-makers. The 50 listed above will likely be the most important.

KEY QUESTIONS

Can the San Francisco Giants outscore the Texas Rangers?

They can.

Can the Texas Rangers outscore the San Francisco Giants?

They can.

Will one of the San Francisco Giants and Texas Rangers outscore the other four times?

Most certainly yes!

X FACTOR

The Giants will play a maximum of four games at home, while the Rangers will play a maximum of three games at home. The home crowds may or may not help. I imagine there are also intangibles somewhere.

CONCLUSION

Both the Giants and Rangers are good teams. The Rangers are probably better by a tiny bit. If you re-played the World Series a million times, maybe 50-55% of the time the Rangers would be crowned as champions. This World Series will be played once. One of these teams will win four games. The other probably won't. The outcome will mean everything, and nothing.

21 recs | 43 comments

Comments

What a captivating copout. It was a good read with no analysis.

thehemogoblin - October 25, 2010 reply

You haven't been around here very long, have you?

slamcactus - October 25, 2010 reply

January.

A while, but… yeah. I dropped the ball on this one.

thehemogoblin - October 25, 2010 reply

You have a career waiting for you in college textbook writing!

Write it once, revise it slightly every couple years, and surf home every night on a high tide of money!

pdb - October 25, 2010 reply

In my experience, a lot of college textbook writers also teach classes

I cannot imagine being less interested in anything

Jeff Sullivan - October 25, 2010 reply

And I have a folder full of 401k documents literally right next to me

Jeff Sullivan - October 25, 2010 reply

Just get tenured, then make a TA do all that pesky teaching while you write

easy!

pdb - October 25, 2010 reply

No matter how happy I am in life, I will never be as happy as I'd be as an heir

Jeff Sullivan - October 25, 2010 reply

This is pretty much my life dream

pdb - October 25, 2010 reply

God damn parents

Jeff Sullivan - October 25, 2010 reply

You seem worthless

Jeff Sullivan - October 25, 2010 reply

You seem mean!!

Dewey N - October 25, 2010 reply

You are absolutely correct.

Ryin A - October 25, 2010 reply

I find it interesting how much quicker you arrived at this

correct conclusion.

GhettoBear04 - October 27, 2010 reply

It seems like Jeff may have written a post like this already

seattlebruin - October 25, 2010 reply

I love the yearly world series preview!

joof - October 25, 2010 reply

...just new audiences

Poochie - October 25, 2010 reply

I'm curious, Jeff.

Because you are a smart baseball person, how many wins do you think a true-talent 90 win NL team would have in the AL? Interleague record has been .558 through the last cycle and .563 through the last two cycles. Am I reading that incorrectly if I think that means a .500 team in the AL could be expected to go about .560 in the NL?

I felt that also seemed like a pretty good estimate because it also seems kind of close to the rule of thumb I’ve heard from a few sources saying a two win player from the AL could be expected to put up about 2.5 wins.

Anyway, I ask all this because I’m working on simulating the series and it comes out pretty close without adjusting for league quality, but much less close than 50-55% if the Rangers are given a .06% edge for league quality in every game.

These are honest questions.

philkid3 - October 25, 2010 reply

The first thing I'll say is that 50-55% was randomly generated

I didn’t do a whole analysis and I think the Giants are well-built for the playoffs.

As for your question, I would say somewhere in the mid-80s. Again, no precise answer, and if you’re referring to the Giants, I’m not comfortable calling them a true-talent 90 win NL team anyway. That’s about what they were over the full season, but they’re very different now. They’re not really using Aaron Rowand, or Nate Schierholz, or Barry Zito, or Todd Wellemeyer, or Bengie Molina, or any number of other guys. The Giants – and Rangers – are very good teams right now. Better than their records.

Jeff Sullivan - October 25, 2010 reply

WHY DO YOU STATS PEOPLE ALWAYS IGNORE TANGIBLES

pdb - October 25, 2010 reply

IT'S LIKE YOU DON'T EVEN WATCH THE GAMES

pdb - October 25, 2010 reply

You can't get tv over the internet to your basements!

JAH - October 25, 2010 reply

Like we're even stats people anymore

Poochie - October 25, 2010 reply

Oh, I get it. Tangibles!

CapSea - October 26, 2010 reply

Is that like Lunchables?

Decatur - October 26, 2010 reply

as a Rangers fan -- nice preview

NothinG - October 25, 2010 reply

also, as much as I can't root for you guys during the season

I do hope the Mariners make it to the World Series, and you guys get the feeling we have now. Long suffering fans deserve this, and it’s incredible. 1977 seems like ages ago (as 1972 and 1961 for us does), and here’s hoping you don’t have to wait that long for your chance to enjoy a WS party.

Saying that, I still hope to beat you guys as much as possible. You’re a rival.

NothinG - October 25, 2010 reply