Thanks to the expedited off season, teams only have five days to negotiate with their outgoing free agents and more importantly for the Mariners, options must be decided on this week as well. The Mariners have four such options to decide on.
Jose Lopez has a team option for either $4.5 or $5 million. Over his five seasons as a full time player, Lopez has averaged about 1.4 wins. The general consensus is that market value for players is a little over $4 million per win provided.
0 recs | 59 comments
It might depend on how they feel about Ackley after AFL is over.
If they think that he could take over as soon as next year, they won’t pick up his option and move Figgins to third.
Coach Owens - November 2, 2010
Ackley is incredibly unlikely to break camp if only for service time reasons
Matthew - November 2, 2010
Curse you and your logic, Matthew!
Coach Owens - November 2, 2010
This still might impact their view on Lopez's option, though.
If you think he’s ready, you’re looking for a 2B for a couple of months. I wouldn’t pick up the option in that case. If he’s not ready, you need a stopgap for a year, and at that point, the option looks better.
marc w - November 2, 2010
I'm really torn on this.
I still think Lopez has potential (he’s shown it before and is too young to just be “done”), but he’s a player without a position on this team.
Thingray - November 2, 2010
Yeah, it really wouldn't surprise me rebound next year in a more Loafie-friendly park (I suppose I could have just said 'a different park')
but he really doesn’t fit here. Sorry Felix.
Eyeball Kid - November 2, 2010
*to see him rebound
Eyeball Kid - November 2, 2010
Lame
seattlebruin - November 2, 2010
.
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2010/4/23/1440561/4-23-open-game-thread-part-2#35757982
Eyeball Kid - November 2, 2010
What I've learned from this is that Sean White is terrible
seattlebruin - November 2, 2010
I'm guessing that he leaves and starts playing better
He’ll get picked up by some team with a good park for pull righties and he’ll repeat 2009 in 2011.
doublemazaa - November 2, 2010
I heard...
I have it on good authority that Jose’s agent takes hitFX data and determines optimal park dimensions for each player. He’s currently searching for a team that plays in this park.
doublemazaa - November 2, 2010
Fenway!
ThomasG - November 2, 2010
That looks like the LA Coliseum baseball configuration. Almost.
Sec 108 - November 2, 2010
Wow!
250 ft to left field with a 60 foot fence! The green monster is only 37 feet tall.
doublemazaa - November 2, 2010
That's just a hand-drawn version of this park
BrettJMiller - November 2, 2010
I actually would have voted for another option.
Release him and then try to sign him as a backup 1B/2B/3B for $1-$2m.
Unless I’m forgetting someone in the organization who’d be a better/cheaper backup infielder.
diderot - November 2, 2010
I like this idea too, but am worried about total bench space
If Jack Wilson is penciled in at starting SS, there has to be a back-up on the bench.
The bench would most likely (based on the current roster) be:
SS (say Josh Wilson or similar)
Loafie (1B,2B,3B)
Bradley or Langerhans (4th OF/DH)
C
Assuming a 12 man staff, 8 field starters and a DH, that only leaves a 4 man bench (how were Wedge’s Cleveland teams built?). Having only a single back-up OF is not a good thought, especially with Franklin’s injury history.
CMC_Stags - November 2, 2010
Dave at USSM had a good point regarding 2B and SS for 2011
He basically said that whoever starts the season at 2B would ideally be able to slide over into a super-sub role when/if Ackley gets called up or into SS when Jack Wilson gets hurt. Retaining Lopez seems to make this more difficult to accomplish.
CMC_Stags - November 2, 2010
That would you be agreeing with his option not getting picked up
Matthew - November 2, 2010
This seems like an odd poll on LookoutLanding...
I’ve gotten the feeling that the editorial position is “We don’t know, and you don’t know, and none of us CAN know until something happens.”
(Please don’t respond with a mean comment, Matthew.)
Joe Metro - November 2, 2010
The fact is we don't know.
And I don’t think anyone here will ever pretend that they do know what’s going on in Jack’s mind, but I think the majority of posters here can make an educated guess on something like this.
JLProck - November 2, 2010
What exactly are you complaining about?
That this is a situation in which an honest case can be made for either cutting or re-signing him? That both cases have been written about already on LL and so all that is left to do is wait? Jeff’s fault. Or Matthew’s fault. I can’t remember which.
abender20 - November 2, 2010
I didn't read it as a complaint.
More of a this is out of place with the normal approach to topics comment.
Sec 108 - November 2, 2010
Right.
It wasn’t a complaint. Just an observation looking for some elaboration, I suppose. I have been expertly conditioned (and this is a good thing) by LookoutLanding to not predict that things will happen in the future.
Joe Metro - November 2, 2010
I just wanted to see a '5. Either way I don't care' option
d0nkey - November 2, 2010
That's called not voting.
Matthew - November 2, 2010
That's not a very civic thing to do on November 2.
ThomasG - November 2, 2010
How is not voting the same as saying I wouldn't care either way?
Since the poll was posted I felt obligated to pick one. Which doesn’t necessarily reflect my feeling of “either way”.
d0nkey - November 2, 2010
Nobody is forcing you to choose
If something exists that you do not care about, I have trouble understanding why you felt a need to offer input on it.
Matthew - November 2, 2010
It's not that I don't care about the question at hand. I do actually.
I am just on the fence. If his option is picked up, I would agree. And if his option is not picked up, I would agree. I think that is a valid stance on the issue, and I don’t see that as not caring about the subject.
d0nkey - November 2, 2010
If you're going to feel the same regardless of the outcome then
to me, that’s not caring.
Yes, I could have offered more choices. I didn’t feel any more were needed.
Matthew - November 2, 2010
It's a poll. It's not editorial.
Matthew - November 2, 2010
I was torn between option 1 and option 4 and voted option 1
because in the end, it makes way too much sense to have him on the roster – as laughably bad as he was last year, his peripherals were not horrible and his defense was good (though UZR seems to really love all the third basemen last year).
Worst case, you’re looking at a dead cat’s bounce, and best case, he keeps his gains in the field, swings at more strikes and puts up a .340 wOBA.
Either way, it’s not an expensive option, and if you are nearly guaranteed to keep Ackley in the minors to start the season due to service time, and likely to try and deal Figgins, there’s a place for Lopez to start the season either way.
seattlebruin - November 2, 2010
I feel like it is unfair to Lopez to keep him here.
He needs a new start in a city where they do not remember him as a stud prospect who was supposed to be so much better than he ever will be.
Sec 108 - November 2, 2010
It's probably more unfair to have Lopez sign a few million dollar contract with another team only to have him disappoint yet another fanbase.
ThomasG - November 2, 2010
sb, we are all your friends and family and we are gathered here today to hold an intervention.
We love you and we can’t see you continue down this destructive path. We’re here for you. We all enjoy the person you used to be but this habit, this dark habit, has eaten away at you. I know you don’t see it. You tell yourself , “Just one more at plate appearance. It’s just bad luck and he’s talented.”, but one plate appearance leads to 20 which leads to 622. Come back to us, sb. We miss the guy that was fun to be around. The guy that didn’t sell his last bit of dignity to buy a #4 jersey. If any part of you can see through the fog and know that what we are saying has some truth, that getting on base at a .270 clip or swinging at 37% of balls out of the zone or hitting nearly 40% fly balls despite having little power is just an awful way to be a good baseball player, then trust us. You can kick this vile, disgusting, retarded habit and we’ll be with you every step of the way.
abender20 - November 2, 2010
Would you like my honest opinion of Jose Lopez?
seattlebruin - November 2, 2010
I have no idea how or why he was so poor on offense last year despite his peripherals being only slightly worse than an above average 2009
his skillset seems to indicate that his average is somewhere between 2008 and 2009, with a very moderate ceiling because he neither hits homers very far nor is patient enough to wait for pitches to drive. He will never be a complete hitter because of his overall approach and inability to walk.
Even though he has demonstrated no ability to actually get on base via the walk, he has shown a willingness to try and improve his approach – however, it’s simply hurt him as he gets into bad counts by letting hittable, early count strikes go by that in years past he would drive for hits, and still lacks the pitch recognition to stick with high level offspeed pitches. In essence, his natural approach seems to be the perfect one for his skillset, and every time he changes it, he can’t shake off what he naturally wants to do, and he lacks the pure talent of an Adrian Beltre to make up for it anyway.
Also, there’s a difference between enough and not enough power and Lopez has enough power to be successful as a big league hitter. If all of his power is right down the left field line, why does he need to be able to hit the ball farther than 375 feet that direction? That’s a home run in every Major League park I know of.
On defense, he looked good all season and the metrics reflected that. He’s probably more natural third baseman than second, and again, players are about the overall package of value – if Lopez fields third base well and can hit at a reasonable level, he is a valuable asset. What else are you going to do with that $4.5M? It seems like the perfect gamble for a player who looked to be consistent 2.5-3 WAR and had an awful season. At age 26, it seems incredibly unlikely that he simply fell off a cliff, so it makes perfect sense to see what he has for $4.5M, kind of like with Ian Snell in 2010.
I’ve basically been saying this for two years, except that I am happier than others when he is successful. I figured you of all commenters would have known this, but whatever.
seattlebruin - November 2, 2010
In a nutshell, Jose Lopez fucking sucks
seattlebruin - November 2, 2010
To me, the Lopez conundrum boils down to two seasons.
In 2008 he BABIPed .306 and was a league average hitter. In 2009, his BABIP came back to (his) Earth and he hit a ton of lucky homers and was a slightly worse but still league average hitter. His skill set doesn’t look like the kind that would support a .300+ BABIP (what with all the fly balls and the poor foot speed) and, as much as his talent for just clearing the wall is incredible, I wouldn’t bank on it. This last year probably isn’t what we should expect from him either, but the way he hits doesn’t scream upside and I don’t believe strongly in a guy that had career seasons to get to league average.
abender20 - November 2, 2010
Because he runs slow and hits too many fly balls
.300, no. .280, sure.
seattlebruin - November 2, 2010
So give him a .280 BABIP for a guy that doesn't K or walk much and has some modest power with a poor speed profile.
His numbers would look an awful lot like Yuni’s 2010 but with a few more hits falling.
abender20 - November 2, 2010
It's amazing how similar their numbers are, hilariously. Double Play Twins to the end.
abender20 - November 2, 2010
Except Plus Defense!
joof - November 3, 2010
As an addendum, run the numbers and with a .280 wOBA and a .140 and it comes out to something like .295 wOBA.
abender20 - November 2, 2010
.280 BABIP.
abender20 - November 2, 2010
Oof.
.280 BABIP, .140 ISO ~= .295 wOBA
abender20 - November 2, 2010
I am glad that you could finally stop being a retard and come to the realization that your favorite player on your favorite team is terrible and needs to be destroyed.
Robert - November 2, 2010
You're next
Matthew - November 2, 2010
I know that everybody has their faults but I really don't think that Felix is the problem with the Mariners.
Robert - November 2, 2010
Maybe he means Carlson.
Decatur - November 2, 2010
.
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2010/7/13/1568279/7-13-open-all-star-game-thread#42013031
CapSea - November 2, 2010
I feel like the only role he can have with the team is as Ackley's placeholder for part of the season
Which would be fine, even at that cost, except that he wouldn’t be good for anything afterward. He’s not a defensive replacement, couldn’t spell Wilson at SS, and is useless as a runner.
Bearskin Rugburn - November 2, 2010
The only way for him to be a utility man is if you play him and third and then use Figgins freely, which Figgins probably won't like.
abender20 - November 2, 2010
Yep, but you can't afford to have him do that role for $4.5M
If the M’s are going to spend that much on someone this off-season, it needs to be for an upgrade at a starting position (C, SS, LF, SP), not for a placeholder at 2B and back-up 1B/2B/3B.
I’d rather have Josh Wilson for less than $1M than Lopez at $4.5M.
CMC_Stags - November 2, 2010
There's no reason to keep Lopez
He doesn’t get on base, has middling power, and can’t play shortstop.
Poochie - November 2, 2010 via mobile
I'd rather be forced to watch Tug Hulett for all of 2011
JLC - November 2, 2010
Your poll confused me until I figured out that you were asking us to guess what the M's are going to do.
(it’s been a long day) So now that I have that in hand, it seems like every year there are always a handful of players out there that can give you whatever Jose Lopez can give you, at less than $4.75 MM. He’s not the kind of talent that should be difficult to replace, so I’m going with #3. And I still have no confidence that I’ve got a good feeling about what the Mariners might do.
nathaniel dawson - November 2, 2010
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