This is happening just like it does in fantasy drafts. Earlier in the offseason, we saw Jose Contreras and Joaquin Benoit get things started. More recently, J.J. Putz and Scott Downs found homes. But then, just in the last few days, Koji Uehara, J.P. Howell, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Kerry Wood, Randy Choate, Bobby Jenks, and Joel Peralta have all signed contracts as the reliever market has caught fire. Feeling like they don't want to get left out, everyone's trying to reach into the middle at once to grab what they can get.
What this means is that only now can you really expect to start hearing some whispers about David Aardsma. Everybody knows that Aardsma's available - presumably even Aardsma himself - and while the Winter Meetings passed by with nary a rumor, the reliever market wasn't yet what it is now. Now, teams are focused on relievers. Now, relievers are falling off the board. So now, Aardsma should start looking like more of an option.
It's not that there aren't still plenty of relievers left. Rafael Soriano's still out there. Brian Fuentes is still out there. Kevin Gregg, Grant Balfour, and Jon Rauch are still out there. But Aardsma's under team control for two years at a reasonable price, given his successful closing experience, so he's attractive. He and the Mariners should get some attention.
Whether they get enough attention has yet to be seen. If dealt, Aardsma isn't likely to bring back much more than a B-prospect and salary relief, and salary relief doesn't do the M's a whole lot of good in their current situation. It's possible that, if they don't get a worthwhile offer, the front office will opt to begin the season with Aardsma and look to move him in the middle, when they might have more leverage. But at least now they should be able to have some productive talks. That's something I doubt they could've done a few weeks ago.
We'll see how this develops, if this develops. It's unlikely that any Aardsma trade would be very exciting, but it would give the M's some flexibility, and this front office has been known to work wonders with a little flexibility. I know there's a rumor out there that the M's would just look to replace Aardsma with Gregg, but that doesn't make very much sense to me unless Gregg's willing to accept a one-year contract. Anyway! I'm losing my train of thought. David Aardsma. He could be traded. I imagine we'll find out soon.
1 recs | 55 comments
There's a lot to like about David Aardsma, but when the day comes that he leaves, I will not miss him.
My heart can’t take it anymore.
Kenneth Arthur - December 16, 2010
Hypothetically speaking, which position would be best for this B level prospect to play?
Assuming this prospect is only a year or two away (totally arbitrary assumption), where would he help most? SS? LF? SP? C?
silverbook - December 16, 2010
Yes.
Kenneth Arthur - December 16, 2010
Now that we have that nailed down, I think it's important to look at teams that could be interested in trading him.
Can we agree on a list of 29?
yuniform - December 16, 2010
Ooh.. I don't know. 30 teams probably.. Mariners need relief pitching.
Kenneth Arthur - December 16, 2010
Also, I'm excluding Japanese teams. Sorry Yomiuri.
yuniform - December 16, 2010
Nailed what down?
Are we trading someone?
n8tron3030 - December 16, 2010
Definitely maybe.
the other side - December 16, 2010
Ken Rosenthal's tweeted that it's possible!
yuniform - December 16, 2010
Lol. I vote C. If Moore doesn't work out, there's nothing in the pipeline.
SS- I like Ryan, we all know who the future is
LF- I like Saunders too, although I am 50-50 if he ever develops a decent bat. But Chavez is at least an option in a few years.
silverbook - December 16, 2010
Just a heads up, chatspeak is frowned upon here.
As far as prospects go, it seems like it’s usually best to go with the best available player and ignore position.
BigR - December 16, 2010
SP - It's always hard to fill out five spots
RP – We’ll need someone to take Aardsma’s place. Maybe some young guy will surprise us
1B – What if Smoak fails? Do we want to trust Mike Carp?
2B – Ackley’s still new at the position, and may need to be shifted if he proves abominable
3B – Figgins. Hitting. It’s been a problem for him.
LF – Saunders needs to step up, and he may have difficulty stepping, given his long legs
CF – Guti’s WAR dropped, like, 4 WAR this year. If that trend continues, LOOK OUT
RF – Nah, we’re set here. Forever.
yuniform - December 16, 2010
Less than 20% chance Smoak fails
And most of that would be due to injury. He might just become average though, but that is still OK because he’ll be cheap for awhile. However, his minor league numbers, plate discipline, swing, decent contact rate and power add up to a very high probability of success. At least, that’s how I see it.
Ackley’s defense is interesting. I haven’t heard any definite reports about it, besides his defense being below average.
silverbook - December 16, 2010
In that case, I'd prefer it if the prospect we get back for Aardsma played second base
unfortunately, this regime doesn’t tolerate poor defensive players, so I would look for Ackley to be shown the door very quickly unless he makes a dramatic, dramatic improvement.
seattlebruin - December 16, 2010
I don't see Ackley being shown the door...
If he can’t hack it at 2nd, they’ll find a spot for him. He’’s too talented with the bat to throw him away because he can’t play second.
Thingray - December 16, 2010
I don't think that's true
hard working players get better at defense and if Ackley fails to improve his defense at second, it will be a clear indication that he is not a hard enough worker to cut it in the big leagues. We don’t need someone here who will simply coast on natural ability.
Either way, once Ackley fails, we will need a second baseman, so I like the idea of swapping Aardsma for a near-MLB second base prospect.
seattlebruin - December 16, 2010
We agree, but for different reasons
Second base is often called the keystone, because it holds both the offense and defense in place. This is clearly illustrative in the Mariners last two seasons. In 2009, Jose Lopez provided pop with the bat and sturdy, girthy defense. In 2010, Chone Figgins offered limp defense and an impotent bat.
The M’s need to get someone who will challenge Ackley’s manhood and prove his worth in the big leagues.
yuniform - December 16, 2010
This post is very testosterone driven
I feel like girthy 2b defense would be kind of heavy and awkward. Like Dan Uggla
tsunamijesus - December 16, 2010
We could always trade for that fellow from Colorado
nathaniel dawson - December 16, 2010
I think sb was making a funny.
Or perhaps this is just another layer to a joke that is going over head of the joke that kind of didn’t go over my head. Damn you Inception.
the other side - December 16, 2010
Do Jay or marc w know the caliber of every team's AAA and AA second base prospects? That'd be really helpful for this discussion.
yuniform - December 16, 2010
Both your definition of failure and your failure percentage are unclear
I’d say there’s a 29 percent chance he fails, but that’s just me.
yuniform - December 16, 2010
Less than 20% chance Smoak is less than 1.5 WAR/150 games by next year.
Failure defined as not performing enough to hold down starting job. Of this percentage, 15% of the time, in my opinion, this will come from an injury altering his skills. The remaining 5% will be mental breakdown and/or his performance thus far being an illusion somehow.
silverbook - December 16, 2010
Smoak has strained an oblique, thus proving he isn't perfect
I think the team needs to prepare for the worst.
yuniform - December 16, 2010
Is the season over already?
I was still waiting for it to get started. I am so far behind.
Droid Rage - December 16, 2010
I want best availible talent at any position
Edgar for Pres - December 16, 2010
If the Mariners do not get something very interesting this off season, I hope they hold on to him and see what develops.
Some team may have their closer hurt in spring training, or decide that they need one before the trading deadline. Closers are often over valued by teams looking for one. Aardsma may have more value when another team feels they have a high need for a closer. It is odd that a closer’s value often has more to do with his position (closer) than his skill set (hard throwing reliever with control issues) but if we get to take advantage of that perceived value we should wait for it to develop. If not, we still have a reasonably priced closer.
Droid Rage - December 16, 2010
That's balanced by the chance that Aardsma falls apart next year
Just as another team’s closer may underperform or get injured, so might David Aardsma. He has value now, he may not later.
nathaniel dawson - December 16, 2010
Yes, but the chance that Aardsma is the one to fail is much less than that one of the other 29 club's closers fails.
If you get to bet failure on one player or a field of 29 similar players which is the smart bet?
Droid Rage - December 16, 2010
There won't be 29 contending teams looking to upgrade
Of course, Aardsma wouldn’t only be available as a closer – he’d possibly/probably be looked at as a setup guy.
Jeff Sullivan - December 16, 2010
Of course not, but the chance that one of the 29 will have someone hurt is greater than the chance that Aardsma is hurt.
All I am trying to say is that getting rid of Aardsma now because he may get hurt is playing against the odds.
Droid Rage - December 16, 2010
Not really
that would only be true if the overall odds on his performance next year (including the possibility of injury) were tilted toward improved performance — which would not seem likely.
The Ancient Mariner - December 17, 2010
As if on cue
Rockies!
Jeff Sullivan - December 16, 2010
AARDSMA FOR LOPEZ
seattlebruin - December 16, 2010
It only makes sense. (Or not.)
yuniform - December 16, 2010
Rec'd
joof - December 16, 2010
Please do not make +1 type comments
Matthew - December 16, 2010
Hahahahahaha!
I went to MLB trade rumors to see if they had anything more on the Rockies interest in Aardsma (they didn’t), and something farther down the page caught my eye. In a post for Yankees rumors, they’re looking for pitchers, including this: “a deal for Felix Hernandez seems unlikely at best”.
I just had to laugh. Then this gem further down: “The Yankees have asked for the medicals on Freddie Garcia”.
Hahahahahahaha!
Sorry, off-topic, but I enjoyed that so much I had to share.
nathaniel dawson - December 16, 2010
Rosenthal reported that the Yankees are on Felix's no-trade list.
I <3 Felix
Decatur - December 16, 2010
God, Felix is awesome.
JAH - December 16, 2010
DA for Rosario or McKenry or Nelson or Pacheo
Lots of quality catching prospects in the upper levels of their system.
silverbook - December 16, 2010
What about their shortstops?
yuniform - December 16, 2010
Rex Brothers would look mighty nice in the Mariners organization.
ThomasG - December 16, 2010
Discussions? I hope Z has a reasonably priced phone plan.
yuniform - December 16, 2010
He uses the Magic JACK....
ZING!
Ballard Erik - December 17, 2010
I just flew in from Phoenix, and boy, aren't my arms tired!
Ballard Erik - December 17, 2010
Does Dan O'Dowd still have an irrational hatred for Ianetta?
Decatur - December 16, 2010
Chris Nelson is a shortstop
Didn’t see anything else I liked after going through John Sickels’ prospect list.
silverbook - December 16, 2010
Sorry, didn't realize I didn't hit reply. I suck at this.
silverbook - December 16, 2010
Nelson is a strong candidate to start for them at 2B next season
so I don’t see them moving him for DA — although having signed both Lopez and Wigginton, maybe they would.
The Ancient Mariner - December 17, 2010
There going to have Nelson, Barmes, Stewart, Lopez, and Wiggington all competing for 2nd and 3rd base
At least one and maybe both of Nelson and Barmes lose out.
silverbook - December 17, 2010
They're*
silverbook - December 17, 2010
Clint Barmes is on the Astros now
Jeff Sullivan - December 17, 2010
He is going to just have to compete extra hard if he wants to get back to being the Rockies second baseman.
The Astros are in the Minor Leagues, right?
Droid Rage - December 17, 2010
My fault. That greatly lowers the odds of the Rockies trading Nelson.
silverbook - December 18, 2010
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