I love February. Not only does it mark the start of spring training, February brings my favourite baseball annual of the year - Baseball America's Prospect Handbook. 900 scouting reports on notable minor leaguers? Yes please. I've been collecting them for several years, and I use even the oldest of them all the time. It's a lot of fun reading about prospects and tracking their progress through the minor leagues, and it's a great resource when you just don't know that much about fringe guys from other organisations (or even ours). My first response to any transaction involving minor leaguers is to dig up the most recent copy of the Handbook.
Anyway, I recently received this year's copy, so I thought I'd share some tidbits without getting in trouble for giving too much away. I hear BA send stealth helicopters after you if you're not careful...
Note: The transaction deadline for the book was before the Cliff Lee trade went down. Therefore for our purposes, Gillies, Ramirez, and Aumont are all Mariners, and Johermyn Chavez is not.
Again, I can't share all that much and I'm going to respect their intellectual property, but there's a tonne of good information in the handbook, and if you're interested in prospects and the minor leagues at all, you should try to pick it up. I've only scratched the surface so far, and I've been reading it since Friday.
0 recs | 70 comments
Were #4, #8, and #18 Gillies, Ramirez, and Aumont, in that order?
Steve Nelson - February 10, 2010
Nope!
Graham MacAree - February 10, 2010
Ramirez, Aumont, Gillies?
Griffin Cooper - February 10, 2010
My guess is Aumont, Gillies, Ramirez
redwolf75 - February 10, 2010
That would be my guess as well.
My initial list was just the order in which Graham listed them.
Steve Nelson - February 10, 2010
Uh, no.
Aumont, Ramirez, Gillies
Not sure what Ramirez did in 2009 to warrant dropping 13 spots from their 2009 rankings.
tait644 - February 10, 2010
Sounds about right.
Graham said before that BA was suddenly down on Ramirez.
JY - February 11, 2010
Last Season
Last Season seems like a really long time ago. Who did we unload besides Washburn?
I googled it and couldn’t find it, but I did find this wisdom from some message board which I found hilarious:
“aumont is gone, which is sad since his ceiling will be higher than lee’s ever will. Aumont has the chance to be better than beckett, burnett, and morrow.”
zeeehjee - February 10, 2010
Forgetting the Worst Player in Baseball so soon?
Graham MacAree - February 10, 2010
Which one?
Janic - February 10, 2010
The Yuniesky Betancourt one
Graham MacAree - February 10, 2010
Oh yeah...
Amazing.
zeeehjee - February 10, 2010
I imagine Cortes is a top-15 guy
Not bad for TWPIB…
tait644 - February 10, 2010
I searched google for what TWPIB meant and your post was the first result.
Danny Cortes is our #9 prospect according to Baseball America. (It’s in the Mariners 2010 Media Guide)
He moved up a couple spots after the Cliff Lee trade as Graham mentioned.
Janic - February 11, 2010
Yessssssssss!!!
My goal of becoming a footnote in pop culture history is on track.
Forever more will I be associated with TWPIB…
tait644 - February 11, 2010
Bong!
Poochie - February 10, 2010
:(
Robert - February 11, 2010
Reallllllllly wish I could afford this
Griffin Cooper - February 10, 2010
Hmmm
Our system is full of high risk/high reward players. There are a number of guys in the 20s who could be top-10 players this time next year.
Remnants of the Bavasi regime, I take it…
rtang - February 10, 2010
It's Engle rather than Fontaine, to be honest
Our international crap hasn’t really shown much lately (Alex Liddi aside), so they’re all ranked fairly low, but they’re very good breakout candidates. A good year from most of those guys and suddenly we’re looking stacked.
Graham MacAree - February 10, 2010
I don't even think Liddi has shown much lately.
Or..it depends on who you talk to. I read about prospects as much as I can (BA/BP/PI/PBNW/Sickels/Shandler/Klaw/etc..) and the reports are all over the map on the guy. From what I can gather from the ‘Mariner sources’ like JAC & Jon Shields is that there’s still a lot of doubt about how much of his performance this year was from the run environment he played in.
However, I’ve also read reports that even though he did benefit from the environment he played in he did make significant progress.
200tang - February 10, 2010
What more could Liddi have done last year to convince you that he is good?
I’m not sure if he is a really good prospect but he pretty much did as much as you can do while being in High Desert. I think what you mean is that you don’t know how to interpret his performance last year. He definitely showed something, I just don’t know what it really means for his future.
Edgar for Pres - February 11, 2010
Pretty much
I know High Desert is High Desert and everything, but he basically could not have put up a better season than he did.
Graham MacAree - February 11, 2010
I think a lot of people make a big deal out of his home/road splits
So if he had the exact same line, but hit a bit better on the road/worse at home, people might be higher on him.
I sort of understand that, but I still like the guy. Tools folks raved about him when he was in the AZL, and then the production never matched the tools. Once it finally does, we’re going to ding him for road splits?
marc w - February 11, 2010
People can't just ignore home results
I’m ok with adjusting them for park effects but ignoring them completely isn’t really the smartest thing to do.
Edgar for Pres - February 11, 2010
Particularly when his eye improved throughout the season.
Regardless of overall season home/road splits.
JY - February 11, 2010
Are you talking from a statistical or scouting perspective?
Because if you’re looking at only stats then you’re argument is already flawed to a certain point. As Jon Shields said.
Say what you will about how great his stats are and how good his numbers were away from home, but if it’s true he changed his swing to take advantage of the home field then not only did he not make any progress this year you could say he actually took a step back.
Now, am I saying he took a step back? No. But to say that he did everything he could have done by just looking at the stats is a lie.
If you have seen him play a lot and you like his swing and think he took a lot of progress, then feel free to disregard this.
200tang - February 12, 2010
There's some variance in there.
Churchill and Shields are more down on Liddi, whereas for Helfgott and me, and I think maybe a few others, he’s around the middle to back of the top ten.
JY - February 11, 2010
Er
Our international crop, rather
Graham MacAree - February 11, 2010
Po-TAY-to, Po-TAH-to.
JY - February 11, 2010
And here I'd thought you did that on purpose
Freudian slip, perhaps?
The Ancient Mariner - February 11, 2010
Why would he do that on purpose?
marc w - February 11, 2010
Because "crap" can just mean "undifferentiated stuff"
“I got a lot of crap for christmas” could mean you received a lot of near-worthless presents, or it could just mean you received a lot of stuff. (And maybe you don’t feel like making fine distinctions about its quality.)
At least in the variant of English I speak. Graham speaks an entirely different one full of all sorts of odd word interpretations, so who knows.
wandergeist - February 11, 2010
The system is definitely filled with high risk/reward guys.
Off the top of my head Julio Morban/Greg Halman/Jharmidy DeJesus might have some of the highest upside of anyone in the entire game, but a low probability of ever reaching their upside.
Then you’ve got guys like Chavez, Pimentel, etc… Depending on what the guys making the jump from High-A to AA do this year the M’s system could leap up the rankings next year, especially if Ackley is still considered a prospect.
200tang - February 10, 2010
Where?
Would one go about finding a copy of this?
joeh312 - February 10, 2010 via mobile
Graham linked to it in the post.
Janic - February 10, 2010
Since it's published by Baseball America, I have a bit of suspicion that ...
… if you click on the link in Graham’s post you just might find yourself at BaseballAmerica.com. Or you can copy and paste www.baseballamerica.com into your browser. Or you can type www.baseballamerica.com into your browser address bar. I think anyone of those methods might work.
Steve Nelson - February 10, 2010
Gotta admit that a full BA subscription is a bit out of my price range, but I have been meaning to at the very least pick up the annual.
Borders gift card from Christmas to the rescue!
Teej - February 10, 2010
You can subscribe to the web site only for a more reasonable cost.
I think it’s $5.50 a month if you sign up for a year.
ToddK - February 11, 2010
I still think they're underrating Pribanic (~30th prospect....in Pittsburgh's system??)
Interesting to hear that they underrate Tui; as a guy whose always been more about tools than performance (definitely influenced by the Bavasi regime’s promotion policy/ARL), I would’ve thought they’d be higher on him than most.
My question: where did Nick Hill show up?
marc w - February 11, 2010
I'd agree with that assessment.
Pribanic would have been somewhere in the teens for me.
JY - February 11, 2010
I might have just missed him
I’ll check Pribanic and Hill when I get back home
Graham MacAree - February 11, 2010
I can believe it; middling K rates, college pitcher in MWL/Sally league
If you don’t care much for GB rates, he’s eminently overlook-able.
marc w - February 11, 2010
That is, I can believe BA would rank him ~30th in the Pirates system
not ‘Well I’m not surprised you missed him, you slacker.’ Sorry.
marc w - February 11, 2010
Didn't miss Pribanic, Hill is mid-teens
Graham MacAree - February 11, 2010
"Rich Poythress [isn't] very impressive"
By that, do you merely mean that they aren’t impressed with him? Or that as a consequence of their comments on him, you have also come to that conclusion?
The Ancient Mariner - February 11, 2010
POYTHRESS, YES!
The BA types aren’t really impressed with him. I, however, am…
PositivePaul - February 11, 2010
I don't see how this calls for an ellipsis
Jeff Sullivan - February 11, 2010
Well...
I pretty much always use ellipses…
PositivePaul - February 11, 2010
Wow!
You have only 53 comments that don’t have an ellipsis. 0.5% of your comments do not contain an ellipsis.
seattle_since_81 - February 11, 2010
Feliz/Smoak/Perez
Does anyone know if LSB has done a write-up on these three lately? I’ve heard everything in the past from “one of them won’t make it, one will be a reliever, and one will be a fairly good starter” to “this decade’s version of Oakland’s Big Three.”
Graham’s prognosis that we ought to be terrified by them, well, terrifies me.
katal - February 11, 2010
I don't know much about Perez other than he's young.
But Feliz is already a frightening MLB pitcher, and Smoak is going to hit
Teej - February 11, 2010
Some folks like Perez better than Feliz
More likely to stick as a starter.
tait644 - February 11, 2010
Well Smoak probably won't be a very good pitcher
But that’s only because he’s a switch hitting first baseman who can hit for average and power. We’ve met Feliz the closer already, and he’s not very fun to be up against. We can only hope he doesn’t work out as a starter and that all he becomes is one of the best relievers in baseball. Perez is a very young left handed starter who throws in the mid-90s. Think of Aroldis Chapman if he sold 3 mph off his fastball for real secondary pitches and command.
Graham MacAree - February 11, 2010
Smoak scares me so much. The plate discipline is off the charts with him so far.
Sec 108 - February 11, 2010
I wonder if the ascent of Perez will finally get people to start calling Feliz by his actual name
Jeff Sullivan - February 11, 2010
As opposed to?
Graham MacAree - February 11, 2010
Neftali Perez
Dewey N - February 11, 2010
Yep - Perez is a massive prospect who would get tons of attention in any other system
He flies under the radar (to a degree) solely because of Feliz. It’s pretty terrifying.
marc w - February 11, 2010
Smoak is a first baseman... thank you.
Sigh. I guess I really do need to order this book.
So, Adrian Gonzalez, K-Rod, and, I don’t know, Bedard? Nasty.
katal - February 11, 2010
Johan
Kinslerhomer - February 11, 2010
Wince.
katal - February 11, 2010
It's a shame...
…that’s the comp that gets thrown out the most because they’re both Venezuelan lefties who throw hard with good secondary offerings. But it seems like it’s a lot of pressure to put on a prospect.
Keith Law rated him very highly (No. 7 over all I think?) and the thought is, depending on performance, he could be anywhere from still in AA to the majors by September.
GhettoBear04 - February 11, 2010
I'd be surprised if he didn't get a cup of coffee at least
Assuming he doesn’t get hurt or anything.
Graham MacAree - February 11, 2010
Obviously, performace matters...
…but it sounds like Jon Daniels doesn’t want to rush him anymore than the jump to AA last fall did, but that there might be others in the organization who are willing to be less cautious.
It’s interesting that Scheppers and Feliz could play a role in all of this. Assuming they stretch Feliz out sometime over June/July, there could be a need for someone to take his high-leverage spot in the bullpen. Now, they could go with someone like a Guillermo Moscoso and slide everyone else forward a spot or they could bring up a Scheppers or Perez to fill the void. Both would have the requisite stuff to fill that role, but I’m not sure they’ll have the command to get out big league hitters. The option between the two would depend both on their progression this year and when/if the Rangers move Feliz to the starting rotation.
GhettoBear04 - February 12, 2010
That's assuming that Feliz stays in relief, and that's not the plan
I mean, it may work out that way, but it’s not like it’s the default.
marc w - February 11, 2010
Damn.
I see… thanks.
katal - February 11, 2010
That's if they all pan out.
redwolf75 - February 11, 2010
And there's the rub.
Still..the idea of a Feliz-Perez-Holland rotation is pretty drool-worthy for Rangers fans. Of course, so is Kinsler-Hamilton-Smoak-Cruz. Still, just because the odds are better for Rangers prospects (due to talent and proximity) doesn’t mean this exercise is any different than fans of non-Yankees teams dreaming about their prospects turning into HOFers.
GhettoBear04 - February 11, 2010
Man I was hoping for a ton of information, but now that I know I'm getting over 10% more than that I'm definitely buying it
Fett42 - February 11, 2010
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Lookout Landing to post a comment.