If you’re dealing with a customer you almost always want to set your deadline/schedule very conservatively. When things go wrong, as they probably will, you’ll still be “on-time.” If things go normally you’re ahead of schedule and the customer is happy.
The construction industry is about the only place I can think of that doesn’t seem to use the method, they’re always behind schedule and way over budget. I suppose that’s because when you have to bidding on a job you have to really sell your service, so of course you’re going to lie about what you can deliver as much as people will accept.
The flight from Detroit to New York is scheduled to take two hours. In reality it takes only an hour to get from Detroit to New York. So when the plane gets to New York, there are no gates available since it arrives an hour early. This means the plane has to circle around for ~an hour until a gate opens up. Basically, the flight from Detroit to New York takes two hours only because it is scheduled to take two hours.
My guess is, it’s almost exclusively the agent, player, or executive who just signed the guy, all of whom have a vested interest in generating excitement about the abilities and worth of the player in the coming year.
Less to do with conservative estimates up front than inflating expectations for the future.
The Mariners did not sign him to a one year deal to rehab him all season. The second part is unanswerable, but you would imagine that if he’s pitching, his shoulder is healthy.
Was still pretty good. If he can be at least that much of the Eric Bedard he used to be for the starts he makes, and he makes a reasonable number of starts, that’s worth having.
Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik said moments ago that Johnson appears to be “ahead of schedule” when it comes to his recovery. But he cautioned that, until Johnson gets out there in a game, you never really know.
My guess is that it is kind of like a car repair estimate.
They go by an average amount of time for the estimate. Some players will take less time, some will take more.
seattle_since_81 - February 17, 2010
From what I can tell so far
the ratio of players who are ahead of schedule to players who are behind schedule is this many players to one.
Jeff Sullivan - February 17, 2010
Not too surprising...
If you’re dealing with a customer you almost always want to set your deadline/schedule very conservatively. When things go wrong, as they probably will, you’ll still be “on-time.” If things go normally you’re ahead of schedule and the customer is happy.
The construction industry is about the only place I can think of that doesn’t seem to use the method, they’re always behind schedule and way over budget. I suppose that’s because when you have to bidding on a job you have to really sell your service, so of course you’re going to lie about what you can deliver as much as people will accept.
Sidi - February 17, 2010
There is a flaw with this
The flight from Detroit to New York is scheduled to take two hours. In reality it takes only an hour to get from Detroit to New York. So when the plane gets to New York, there are no gates available since it arrives an hour early. This means the plane has to circle around for ~an hour until a gate opens up. Basically, the flight from Detroit to New York takes two hours only because it is scheduled to take two hours.
Dewey N - February 17, 2010
Disney line syndrome
Graham MacAree - February 17, 2010
Who's the one claiming "ahead of schedule?"
My guess is, it’s almost exclusively the agent, player, or executive who just signed the guy, all of whom have a vested interest in generating excitement about the abilities and worth of the player in the coming year.
Less to do with conservative estimates up front than inflating expectations for the future.
AnotherAaron - February 17, 2010
Actually, it's probably more like your home renovation contractor esitmate
They’re ahead of schedule right up to when they tell you it’ll take twice as long as they originally scheduled.
wandergeist - February 17, 2010
Doesn't the Official Baseball Scheduler make those schedules?
You know how accurate and efficient they are.
msb - February 17, 2010
My guess is that they make the schedules longer so that if anything happens they won't be behind schedule.
Speaking of which, when can we realistically expect Bedard on the mound this season? And will he be 100% healthy?
Fin - February 17, 2010
I would imagine he will pitch.
The Mariners did not sign him to a one year deal to rehab him all season. The second part is unanswerable, but you would imagine that if he’s pitching, his shoulder is healthy.
Tyler - February 17, 2010
June?, probably
But 100% healthy does not mean 100% like he used to be.
Jeff Sullivan - February 17, 2010
Based in a sample size of Chris Carpenter
I don’t see why there should be any problems
Poochie - February 17, 2010
This is the kind of analytical thinking I can get on board with.
PLAYOFFS WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Kermit. - February 17, 2010
1-2-3 Punch!
Fin - February 17, 2010
But whatever percentage he was in 2009
Was still pretty good. If he can be at least that much of the Eric Bedard he used to be for the starts he makes, and he makes a reasonable number of starts, that’s worth having.
wandergeist - February 17, 2010
You can add Rob Johnson to the list
Geoff Baker
ThundaPC - February 17, 2010
Did he also caution
that even if Johnson is completely recovered he will still be a marginal major leaguer?
Bearskin Rugburn - February 17, 2010
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