Update #2: Tell it, Jon Paul Morosi:
Source confirms that Bedard is close to a one-year deal with the Mariners.
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Update: Larry LaRue chimes in today, quoting Bedard as saying "When you're a free agent, teams call...Mostly, it's just talk - they want to know where I am, how I'm doing. No one's made a concrete offer." There's a difference between "agreement" and "offer", but anyway, this post is more about the possibility than the rumor itself.
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I wasn't going to say anything when this just seemed like conversation fodder at Jim Street's blog, but now we have an interesting follow-up, courtesy of MLBTR:
From Street's newest blog post on Bedard: "I have now heard that the deal is a one-year $1.5 million base salary contract that includes a shipload of incentives." In an email to MLBTR, Street explained that his source said an agreement in principal has been reached, but it's not a done deal given pending tests on Bedard's shoulder.
So, right now, we have one guy telling one guy that there's an agreement in place, and it's all pending a physical examination of one of the most fragile players in baseball. Clearly, there stands an excellent chance that this never goes down. But no matter what you think of Jim Street, his seeming disdain of the blogging phenomenon implies that he'll only discuss what he perceives to be legitimate, which gives this some legs.
Lately I've made no secret of my desire to bring Erik Bedard back in 2010. The Mariners have a clear need in the rotation behind Felix and Lee, and among the arms available, few - if any - have Bedard's talent, or at least the talent Bedard had before undergoing his latest surgery. While he'd be a high-risk/high-reward type of acquisition, the risk wouldn't be financial; it'd be that he may not be able to return and pitch effectively, which is something the M's would already know. It's not like signing Rich Harden, where you know he could get hurt at any time. Bedard's already out of action, and isn't set to come back until June at the earliest. It takes a lot of the guesswork out of the equation. The team would have already built a roster intended to get by without Erik Bedard.
So there's risk. Risk is why Bedard is staring at a small 2010 contract. But the reward is why I find the notion so exciting. Let's assume that Bedard doesn't get back to some approximation of normal until the All Star Break. That would put him in line to collect, I dunno, 12-15 starts down the stretch. If you just take his career numbers, you'd expect him to be worth 1.5-2 wins over that span (Fangraphs WAR, FIP-based), and that's without taking into consideration the small extra benefit he would get from being a lefty in Safeco. That's a solid contribution rivaling any we could get from anyone still readily available.
And then there's the matter of those games potentially being so important. I know people like to say that a win in April is worth as much as a win in September, and in a way, those people are right. But think of this in win expectancy terms. In the end, we know that a run scored in the first inning is worth as much as a run scored in the ninth inning, but within an individual game, the leverage increases if the score is close. It's similar within an individual season. If the race is tight, the later games take on more meaning - especially the later games against your competition. You can think of signing Bedard, then, as giving the M's a potential opportunity to "pinch-pitch" some critical starts.
To say nothing of the possible value of having Bedard healthy in the playoffs.
Erik Bedard is as far from a guarantee to contribute as pretty much any starter in the league. He's still rehabbing from a major operation on his shoulder, and there's no telling exactly how he comes out of this. For all I know, his career could be finished. Presumably, though, the M's would give him a thorough examination before bringing him back, and if he checks out, then that's encouraging. That would put him in line to pick up some potentially significant innings in the second half. He obviously wouldn't be able to throw as many innings as, say, a Jarrod Washburn, but he packs just as much value - if not more - in less than half the time, and we have more than enough bodies to get by for a few months were nobody else to be brought in. And hey, if it gets to be July and Bedard has a setback or whatever, then you can make a trade. He doesn't block you the way another pitcher might.
I'm not sure if this is the way the Mariners are leaning, but if it is, I like it. The last time Erik Bedard was healthy, he ran a 3.19 FIP. The last time Erik Bedard wasn't healthy, he ran a 3.9 FIP anyway. When he's on the mound, Bedard is a good pitcher with the chance to be a great one, and there aren't a lot of guys out there this cheap who pack this much potential impact.
Erik Bedard, everybody. For real.
0 recs | 291 comments
Do we need to factor in Larue's phone call to Bedard this morning?
here?
“The team has talked to Bedard about a return, but there’s no offer in hand just yet. And other teams have called, too. “When you’re a free agent, teams call,” Bedard said. “Mostly, it’s just talk – they want to know where I am, how I’m doing. No one’s made a concrete offer.”"
msb - February 4, 2010
Was going to post this
Clash of the Titans! LaRue and Street face off, hilariously, in ’blogo-land".
Bearskin Rugburn - February 4, 2010
That said, the way this team operates he could be under strict orders to keep his pie hole shut until everything is squared away.
Perhaps it’s true that there isn’t a ‘concrete offer’. Perhaps Bedard is happy with what Jack has offered him but the deal hinges on Bedard reaching certain milestones in his recovery, thus the offer is not concrete.
Bearskin Rugburn - February 4, 2010
Wasn't he living in his parents' basement while building a house of his own?
Maybe he just wants to be paid in concrete.
justcougit - February 4, 2010
Thats silly
there’s only one reason to live in your parents’ basement.
Bearskin Rugburn - February 4, 2010
Blogging?
JY - February 4, 2010
Being a sabermetrician!
pdb - February 4, 2010
Blogging is enough
but you can only do sabermetrics if its a windowless basement.
Bearskin Rugburn - February 4, 2010
Like Dave said on the radio a few weeks ago
I wouldn’t want to run a pitcher like Jarrod Washburn out during a game 3/4 at Yankee Stadium. Gambling on a high upside guy who could be ready to later in the year is a wonderful idea.
If this goes through we still have enough money to sign Smoltz or Pedro and maybe another player.
Poochie - February 4, 2010
Ian Snell would be going out during game 3
Dewey N - February 4, 2010
He's not even locked into the roster template
Poochie - February 4, 2010
I don't think you understand how good he is
Dewey N - February 4, 2010
The only thing I really know about him is that thing from Fangraphs(?) saying how much he'd slipped
I’d love to see something elaborating his upside and projected performance. It looks like he’s someone else’s Brandon Morrow, by which I mean he was “the future” for Pitt three years ago and now he’s not with the organization any more.
moyerLIVES - February 4, 2010
How good he was
And perhaps could be again. But there’s no certainty he is.
wandergeist - February 4, 2010
I know based on intuition
Dewey N - February 4, 2010
I call bullshit.
Women’s intuition doesn’t exist.
JLProck - February 4, 2010
Hyphen?
JY - February 4, 2010
And if he's terrible, at $1.5M, what do you stand to lose?
I love it if he actually comes back
seattlebruin - February 4, 2010
If Bedard comes back then Washburn is out right?
By my count that would be 4 lefties in the rotation, which wouldn’t work. Although it’d be nice to have the decent innings that Wash could provide in addition to the potentially great ones that Bedard might (maybe) offer. Perhaps. (Hopefully). Maybe.
moyerLIVES - February 4, 2010
As long as this does not max out our payroll
I don’t think this precludes us from getting another starter. A healthy Bedard would be great for the stretch run, but having another, more reliable starter to slot in over Snell and Vargas would not hurt either.
IceStormV1 - February 4, 2010
Well I don't think 1.5 is going to max out our payroll
not after how cheaply we picked up Byrnes and Garko. But who’s a right handed Washburn equivalent for less than 5 a year or so?
moyerLIVES - February 4, 2010
The base may only be $1.5M, but I don't think GMZ would build his budget without keeping the possible incentives in mind.
I have no idea what those incentives would be. I’m guessing that GMZ would pretty much be done at that point, unless we got someone on the super-cheap. Honestly, I like what we have better than what’s on the market right now. It’s pretty bare.
supershane - February 4, 2010
If Bedard is on the team
Late in the season and healthy and pitching well enough that he’s making his playing time incentives, the team is almost certainly in the hunt for the playoffs, and fans are excited and coming out to games. While I’m sure you’re right and Zduriencik is working with worst-case budget projections, I suspect in that situation the ownership wouldn’t mind if the budget got stretched a little bit.
wandergeist - February 4, 2010
Four lefties in the rotation wouldn't work?
To what do you base this statement upon?
Matthew - February 4, 2010
It would completely misrepresent population proportions
It’d be like a team that isn’t ~15% black.
Bearskin Rugburn - February 4, 2010
What Matthew said.
In fact, in Safeco field, lefties are generally preferred, due to the nature of the park effects.
nathaniel dawson - February 4, 2010
A comment in response to the Larry LaRue post was too amusing not to pass along:
Thank you for existing, LL.
Anyway, I’d hit the trigger on that deal right away. I can’t help but be underwhelmed by the fact we’d be giving Ian Snell AND a combination of Fister, Feierabend, Olson, or Vargas starts.
redwolf75 - February 4, 2010
I'd suspect his 3B argument is Felix is the f'ace' of the franchise, Lee is a fucking stud and Bedard isn't healthy.
I don’t think you should read too much into it.
kentroyals5 - February 4, 2010
I'd suspect its humility
and deference to Rowland-Smith. The guy who posted that comment is a dickhead.
Bearskin Rugburn - February 4, 2010
Yes.
royalcurve - February 4, 2010
He sounds like a happy camper through the whole article-yay.
wazzu93 - February 4, 2010
Funny what happens when he's interviewed by someone
that’s not accusing him of being a wuss in every other question.
BrianL - February 4, 2010
Agree
Bohawk - February 4, 2010 via mobile
Good post.
It’s rather apparently modesty and politeness, attributes compeltely independent from his inner drive of competitiveness.
redwolf75 - February 4, 2010
In fact Larue is saying the same thing, just now, on 710.
adding that Bedard is shy, sensitive to what fans think, and apparently feels it is safer to not talk
msb - February 4, 2010
Larue says he thinks they get along because they are both a little odd
and that Larue will visit with him, without looking for an interview.
Larue has told him that if there is something Bedard is uncomfortable with after talking, he (Larue) won’t use it
msb - February 4, 2010
Very interesting insight
Larry is the Bedard-whisperer. The Ichiro-tickler of local media.
jtopps - February 4, 2010
You mean Bedard is a nice enough guy when he isn't being accosted by the media?
I’m not sure what to think about this revelation.
BrianL - February 4, 2010
Took me five minute to understand what was being said.
I kept reading it as him being willing to play Third Base.
hcoguy - February 4, 2010
Well, the actual quote said "Put me down as No. 3B". That's pretty clear, I think.
royalcurve - February 4, 2010
I suppose I was just sub-consciously hoping for MORE roster versatility
hcoguy - February 4, 2010
I thought that as well.
Like Lee saying he wanted a 10yr, $200 billion contract or Jack Wilson saying he was brought on for his 40 home run power. MLB players, such jokesters.
JAH - February 4, 2010
I'm guessing it's been debated here,
but I never really noticed how each of those guys cracked wise so often. I’m sure it’s just coincidence, but it might also be part of what JackZ looks for in personality makeup.
Stranger factors have influenced more important decisions.
misterjonez - February 4, 2010
Thing is about Snell
is his ‘plate discipline’ numbers are largely unchanged from his years in Pittsburgh. I still can’t get to StatCorner from work, but FG shows that the contact rate on strikes is virtually unchanged, while but the contact rate on balls took a huge jump (50 —> 60%). Also, he’s started started missing the zone a bit more.
What that tells me is he’s basically one small step away form his former league average FIP self, and there’s nothing wrong with a guy like that slotting in at #4. Of course, tRA always thought he was a tad below average.
Bearskin Rugburn - February 4, 2010
My distrust for Snell has
admittedly an irrational base. No one will be happier than me if he turns it around next season.
redwolf75 - February 4, 2010
Brock seems to also worry that the comment means he isn't competitive enough
msb - February 4, 2010
I read that more of him saying "Holy crap I could be pitching in the same rotation as Felix and Cliff Fucking Lee."
BrianL - February 4, 2010
Yup.
msb - February 4, 2010
It just seemed to be a more humble statement than anything.
Bedard says that Felix and Cliff are really, really good and pitching behind them would be an honor.
BrianL - February 4, 2010
Confident = asshole
Modest = asshole
Teej - February 4, 2010
What an asshole!
Andrew E - February 4, 2010
Me too.
wazzu93 - February 4, 2010
Reason to ignore Brock Huard on this subject.
When faced with free agency after leaving the Seahawks instead of taking a job somewhere to compete for a starting job he decided to become a human clipboard in Indianapolis. Probably the easiest job in all of pro sports and doesn’t exactly point to him being a competitive athlete.
Sec 108 - February 4, 2010
I just love the concept
of a guy who has in all likelihood never done anything mentally tougher than decide between Burger King and Wendy’s saying that a professional athlete lacks mental toughness.
pdb - February 4, 2010
I can't even talk about this right now. It's too goddamn stressful.
If it goes through I’m a basket case, if it doesn’t I’m heartbroken all over again.
royalcurve - February 4, 2010
Don't forget about Option 3
It goes through, you’re a basket case, AND you’re heartbroken all over again!
lemonverbena - February 4, 2010
Good point.
royalcurve - February 4, 2010
1.5 mil guaranteed would be quite a deal
Not much risk if he doesn’t return to form and tons of upside. Byrnes, Garko, and Bedard all for about 2.5mil guaranteed, maybe enough left over for another pitcher?
OlSalty - February 4, 2010
I'm for it.
Teej - February 4, 2010
It feels right this time.
I can’t imagine what it would do to Bavasi if he came back studly and led the Ms to the promised land.
waldo rojas - February 4, 2010
The odds of Bavasi coming back studly are statiscally insignificant
lemonverbena - February 4, 2010
*statistically
fack
lemonverbena - February 4, 2010
I didn't even notice
I just assumed you said the odds were “sadistically insignificant”.
Steve Nelson - February 4, 2010
If he signs, I assume he goes straight into the 60 DL. Can someone explain to me when he would need adding to the 40 man roster, and who is likely to be DFA if Bedard is added?
EnglishMariner - February 4, 2010
Woops, into should say onto.
EnglishMariner - February 4, 2010
Without looking at the roster, and because it's a little punny,
I’d guess French. Maybe Olsen’s more likely.
Bearskin Rugburn - February 4, 2010
I don't think you can have the 60-day DL officially until the end of spring training.
JY - February 4, 2010
Indeed
I don’t know who they’d bump. Orta?
Jeff Sullivan - February 4, 2010
Orta's locked in.
You can’t remove players added to the 40-man for the first time due to Rule 5 protection until they’ve been on for a year. That means Orta, Cortes, Paredes, Varvaro, and Carrera are all locked in.
My guess would be Petit, as he’s pretty disposable in terms of his offerings.
JY - February 4, 2010
Or Texeira, I guess, if they go with a 6-man bullpen
Jeff Sullivan - February 4, 2010
It depends on when they decide to add him.
JY - February 4, 2010
I suppose we should probably not get ahead of ourselves
Jeff Sullivan - February 4, 2010
Debbie Downer
kentroyals5 - February 4, 2010
.
lemonverbena - February 4, 2010
They could also drop Feierabend.
Vargas/Olson/Hill make him somewhat redundant. The TJ is a better odds for rebound than most, but we’re talking about a guy who didn’t have great stuff in the first place.
JY - February 4, 2010
And Feierabend could probably slip through waivers
Jeff Sullivan - February 4, 2010
That was my thinking.
It’s certainly possible that some team would be pitching-desperate enough to take a look at him, because he’s still young after all, but this guy is not a Jesse Foppert type arm (bad analogy, I know) that could theoretically be useful even without the trademark velocity, or as you wait for said velocity to recover. If Feierabend is not 100% when he comes back, his MLB career is pretty much toast.
JY - February 4, 2010
Who would claim Olson?
Truthfully I wouldn’t mind somebody taking him from us. Feierbend still looks like a guy who could provide more useful innings than Olson. It is true we might be able to slip him through waivers though.
Edgar for Pres - February 4, 2010
Olson didn't have TJ surgery recently though.
JY - February 4, 2010
I would rather risk Olson than Feierabend
Feierabend, while injured, has a chance to be something decent, while Olson just looks totally lost. Plus if we lose Olson, it’s not like we’ve lost a significant amount of depth. We have French/Vargas/Hill at the LH 6th bullpen man/5th starter.
Fuckmikereilly - February 4, 2010
Okay, it's time to play, guess the numbers:
Player A (MLB): 7.22 ERA, 2-11, 106.0 IP, 147 H (20 HR), 85 R, 64/44 K/BB
Player A (AAA): 3.19 ERA, 13-5, 183.1 IP, 195 H (14 HR), 78 R (65 ER), 118/48 K/BB
Player B (MLB): 6.46 ERA, 13-18, 245.1 IP, 289 H (40 HR), 180 R (176 ER), 158/124 K/BB
Player B (AAA): 3.53 ERA, 12-12, 211.2 IP, 168 H (16 HR), 89 R (83 ER), 197/78 K/BB
A is Feierabend, B is Olson.
I realize that this doesn’t really make a clear argument in Olson’s favor, but it doesn’t make one for Feierabend either. I think that we may be valuing Feierabend on familiarity over ability.
Personally, I’d still consider rolling the dice with Olson because he’s not injured, has improved each season, and has had a K-rate of 8.5+ in the high minors whereas Feierabend is two Ks below that, and, pickoff move aside, doesn’t seem to have some skill that I would say clearly helps him work around a strikeout deficiency.
JY - February 4, 2010
Olson is about four years older though isnt he?
It’s not that I disagree with you, just thought its worth noting. My money’s on Tex.
Bearskin Rugburn - February 4, 2010
2 years older.
Mariner John - February 4, 2010
Yeah if you would have asked me a year ago I would have said
I’d take Olson every time. You are probably right that Olson is better. I’m probably underappreciating the TJ surgery. The low K rate is also really a worry. Olson just looked so bad. Olson probably does have more ability/potential though.
Edgar for Pres - February 5, 2010
More than that, he's been pretty weak against righties both in AAA and MLB
His change looks OK, but it’s not fooling good RH hitters. While Safeco can help with that (that memorable game against Boston comes to mind), it can’t cover the fact that he doesn’t really have a weapon to combat the majority of MLB hitters.
Olson’s been bad against righties in MLB, but he was better in the high minors than Feier.
Still, they’ve both been so bad, that it’s down to development. If either hones their change-up into something approaching an average pitch, they win this competition. (And still end up losing out to Vargas and French, most likely, but anyway)
marc w - February 5, 2010
I don't know if French really is much better
Besides his 80 IP in 2009 AAA he really isn’t anything I’d expect to last in the majors. They all are kind of replacement level so we probably should be looking at upside to value them and Olson probably wins this.
(Vargas is slightly better than the rest I think but its pretty close).
Edgar for Pres - February 5, 2010
French's career is pretty crappy, so it comes down to how much stock you put
in his 2009. It appears like he may have developed a legit weapon with his slider, and was able to post great SwStr% both in AAA and in Detroit (or, better than Olson/Feier anyway). This regressed quite a bit in Seattle, so maybe his 2009 was just a mirage (sort of like Olson’s SwStr binge in a small sample for Norfolk in 2008). But if it is a plus pitch, then he’s got the only plus pitch in this group.
marc w - February 5, 2010
Do not underestimated Petit.
diderot - February 4, 2010
Or underestimate.
diderot - February 4, 2010
Hmm. Is it possible then that he can remain 'unsigned' but with an agreement in place to sign when he is ready to pitch, or is there no precedent for anything like this?
EnglishMariner - February 4, 2010
It's possible?
I think one way of doing it would be to get him a minor league deal, with major “incentives” if he makes the big club at any point during the season. He gets an invite, then at the end of ST, they “decide” to keep him and add him to the 40-man, putting him on the 60-day at the same time. That would mean that he wouldn’t really be pitching until June though, and little if any during spring training.
It would probably be the most ass way of going about the business, which makes me think that there has to be some earlier precedent or clause that would prevent a team from doing such things, but it seems like it could happen.
JY - February 4, 2010
I think it's doable
… but it’s a really risky way to run a franchise. What’s going to stop Bedard from signing with someone else later if they offer more money. It’s not like he’s a fan-favorite in Seattle, and it’s not like he played there forever. It’d be stupid on the part of the Mariners.
thehemogoblin - February 4, 2010
The fact that he'd be under contract would prevent him from signing with someone else
marc w - February 4, 2010
Yeah...
I missed that. Forgive me.
thehemogoblin - February 4, 2010
You are forgiven!
Hugs!
marc w - February 4, 2010
HEY?!
What is this physical contact business?
thehemogoblin - February 4, 2010
He was on the 60 day at the end of last year though, so maybe he still is even if he signs?
Sec 108 - February 4, 2010
The 60 day DL goes away during the offseason completely.
Mariner John - February 4, 2010
Yep - players who are on the 60-day DL at the end of the season either need to be moved to the active roster or granted free agency.
Steve Nelson - February 4, 2010
Makes sense, I was succumbing to wishful thinking.
Sec 108 - February 4, 2010
Fool me once...
I hear all the reasons this makes sense, but I think that just as there are those players you rationally shouldn’t love but do, this is one of those times I’m following my heart more than my head. I know that in the context of the payroll of any MLB team (well, okay, maybe not the Padres) $1.5M isn’t a lot of money, but I would have trouble putting any more money into Bedard. I know it’s not his fault personally, but, if it were my decision to make, fuck him, he’s not getting any more of my (okay, the Mariners’) money.
seank100 - February 4, 2010
DOGPILE!
Bearskin Rugburn - February 4, 2010
Big gay pile?
Goose - February 4, 2010
So that didn't work
Bearskin Rugburn - February 4, 2010
I guess it's a good thing you're not a major league GM, huh?
Eyebrows - February 4, 2010 via mobile
For more than just this reason, I'm sure.
seank100 - February 4, 2010
So hey this is a bad comment
Poochie - February 4, 2010
Bad comment?
Bad resoning, maybe. Unsound logic, most likely. But a bad comment? Come on now.
seank100 - February 4, 2010
Bad reasoning + unsound logic = bad comment.
ToddK - February 4, 2010
Relax
Jeff Sullivan - February 4, 2010
All this Bedard excitement has got me all frazzled.
ToddK - February 4, 2010
People can be irrational if they want to be
It doesn’t make sense, but he stated that he knows it doesn’t so whatever.
OlSalty - February 4, 2010
Unless 100% of your comments on LL are supported by sound logic and unassailable reasoning
this line of attack is probably best left out.
pdb - February 4, 2010
I thought it was just fine
Bearskin Rugburn - February 4, 2010
No it's not
Jeff Sullivan - February 4, 2010
In the interest of fomenting an intelligent discussion about this
Why not? Given the numbers he puts up when healthy, and given that as you say $1.5 million is not a lot of money, why on earth would you not give Erik Bedard $1.5 million and see what happens? If he’s healthy, that’s the bargain of the season; if not, that’s a rounding error on the team’s books. What’s the downside here?
pdb - February 4, 2010
And he could be injured for three-quarters of the season and still earn that money.
Teej - February 4, 2010
And then some
OlSalty - February 4, 2010
Like I said, it's irrational
This is simply one of those gut check things. I get what the upside is. I get that he could produce enough wins in 1/4 of the season to earn the money. If there is room for us to passionately support a player, even if his numbers don’t support the, umm, support then isn’t there also room to allow for a passionate disapproval of a potential move?
Honestly, I’m not trying to convince anyone that I’m right; I just don’t support bringing back Bedard.
seank100 - February 4, 2010
Well said. I disagree, but I understand.
Sec 108 - February 4, 2010
Yeah, makes sense.
But I think I’m going to start a campaign to Support The Support!
pdb - February 4, 2010
For the record, I was fine with your comment.
We all have our own irrational beliefs, and as long as we aren’t making it a regular habit of spouting them off, and present them in a legible manner, I don’t see an issue.
redwolf75 - February 4, 2010
Kinda like how I want Eric Byrnes legs to explode in spring training despite the fact that he may be of some use to us.
Goose - February 4, 2010
You may just get your wish.
Sec 108 - February 4, 2010
Optimism thread ahoy?
Faux - February 4, 2010
If it happens, it'd better happen during the week I'm down there so I can witness it in person.
Goose - February 4, 2010
He's a an inexpensive (for baseball and his talent level) lottery ticket.
If he comes back healthy and the M’s are in the race, you have to feel good about the team’s chances. If he doesn’t, I’d still have rather spent that money on him than Washburn.
abender20 - February 4, 2010
Seriously, I want this to happen and I want it to happen now.
Even if the deal is for something like $2-2.5 M with incentives I want this to happen. Like the post mentions, this team is already built to contend without Bedard, and even 70% of Bedard is probably better than RRS/Snell/Whoeverthehellelse as a 3rd starter. Can you imagine 1-2-3 of Felix!, Lee and Bedard in the playoffs? The first round would be basically an automatic lock.
Zwakamatsu - February 4, 2010
Insane!
That is exactly what I imagined… this team will be built for the postseason if Bedard works
If not… oh well… we aren’t banking on his contributions anyways.
This is a win – win as far as I’m concerned
BQueezy - February 4, 2010
"First Round"?
Did you not witness what the Yankees did last postseason? They won the whole fucking shebang with Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, and Rivera. With the utterly stupid spreading out of the post season games due to television market demands, the Mariners would never have to use anybody else either.
We’d probably use more people because our bullpen can actually, y’know, be useful, and Aardsma is not Rivera. But the point still stands. Get to the post season first, and if you’ve got three good starters, that’s all you need for the whole post season run.
The Typical Idiot Fan - February 4, 2010
I'm pretty sure Bedard would break if he was used on three days rest.
I Lick Squirrels - February 4, 2010
He would'nt be pitching on three days rest.
Andrew E - February 4, 2010
This makes me question if it would be possible to have 2 starters, like Lee and Felix!
that start every other game and only go a max of 5 innings. At the most that would be 47.5 innings extra a piece, and likely something like 30 a piece. With a bullpen of RRS, Snell, Aardsma, League and Lowe, and the spacing of the games, you probably wouldn’t run into any issues with overuse of any of those guys. Assuming Bedard keeps up his ways, he would only likely give you 5 innings anyway, you most likely wouldn’t be giving a lot of his innings to the bullpen. It would be fun to run the numbers on this and see which would come out on top, assuming that pitch count isn’t an issue.
Zwakamatsu - February 4, 2010
It is also possible that if for whatever reason we are out of contention by the trade deadline, we could trade Bedard for a prospect.
EnglishMariner - February 4, 2010
He'd have to do a lot in a month's time to be worth anything
Bearskin Rugburn - February 4, 2010
Playoffs!
EnglishMariner - February 4, 2010
That's better.
Bearskin Rugburn - February 4, 2010
Of the remaining FA pitchers I like Bedard most.
If I were the Ms I would offer max $5 million to Bedard, $4 mil to Smoltz, $4 mil to Pedro, $2 mil to Wang and $2 mil to Washburn.
lailaihei - February 4, 2010 via mobile
Simultaneously?
I’d do it.
thehemogoblin - February 4, 2010
Larry Stone
checks in on his blog (damn blogger)
msb - February 4, 2010
Wow. Stone links a Schilling blog post about his shoulder surgery which has some great details and pictures
Bearskin Rugburn - February 4, 2010
I just read that.
The first pictures were, “ooh, neat, interesting”, The last ones with the muscle pulled through that hole, blech, not so much.
wazzu93 - February 4, 2010
Yeah that had me squirming
and I spend the morning drawing blood from the hearts of live animals.
Bearskin Rugburn - February 4, 2010
That sounds like a hoot.
wazzu93 - February 4, 2010
Jon Morosi confirms the M's and Bedard are near a 1 year deal
Link
ManifestDestiny - February 4, 2010
Hooray!
Jeff Sullivan - February 4, 2010
YESSSSSSSSSS
OlSalty - February 4, 2010
Yay.
redwolf75 - February 4, 2010
I'm really surprised he wanted to come back here.
Goose - February 4, 2010
Me too
Jeff Sullivan - February 4, 2010
Just because he's quiet doesn't mean he's not proud.
I think he feels he owes the team and the fans something.
diderot - February 4, 2010
I don't really think atheletes care that much
At least I haven’t seen evidence of this. Millions of dollars is a lot of money.
Edgar for Pres - February 5, 2010
He liked the team, he liked the ballpark, he feels he owes them...
msb - February 4, 2010
He's actually said it repeatedly going back to last season.
wazzu93 - February 4, 2010
It was easy not to put too much stock in that
Jeff Sullivan - February 4, 2010
Yeah, but a girl can dream.
wazzu93 - February 4, 2010
Agreed.
I wonder if Bedard went with the evil he knows – e.g. assholes like me. But seriously, the fans never really seemed to warm up to him and I wonder if he was in the clubhouse enough last year to benefit from the warm fuzzies therein.
seank100 - February 4, 2010
There were shots through the year of him on the bench.
Smiling.
msb - February 4, 2010
There also were shots at him.
From the media, from the crowd, from the blogosphere.
seank100 - February 4, 2010
There was pretty much no shots from him from the blogosphere
Matthew - February 4, 2010
Quite the opposite, really
Jeff Sullivan - February 4, 2010
He's like Ichiro without the language barrier.
You ask him a bullshit question he’s going to give you a bullshit answer. In my eyes that’s admirable. In the media’s eyes it’s evil.
coreyjro - February 4, 2010
I can see his viewpoint.
I once was interviewing a now former M’s minor leaguer and threw out the question of “do want to add anything that people should know about you”, basically because I was nineteen and didn’t know what the fuck I was doing and thus fell back on imitation. His flat response was “nope”, and I laughed and shook his hand and walked away respecting him for it because I knew that in a similar position, I either wouldn’t have anything to say or would be annoyed at having to answer the n-th vague question that wasn’t all that thoughtful.
I don’t want to bust the balls of the media because interviewing can be a lot more difficult than at first it would seem, but it does look like they fall into certain cycles of questions they ask because it’s their role to do so. I don’t fault players for tiring of that.
JY - February 4, 2010
Actually, that often is the best question to ask.
When people want to get something off their chests and haven’t had the chance…it’s the perfect opportunity.
diderot - February 4, 2010
Wait a second
Isn’t he a Francophone? Does that not count as a language barrier anymore?
thehemogoblin - February 4, 2010
Judging from the expression on his face after the Felix slam we were doing something right with him apparently
OlSalty - February 4, 2010
He's the anti-Seattle fan player though
He doesn’t give good quote, he doesn’t play the media game – and when he spent most of the season hurt, all the sports-shout shows said HE’S A WASTE OF MONEY WHY DID WE MAKE SUCH A STUPID MOVE and most of their audience agreed. Doesn’t mean he isn’t a good pitcher, and it also doesn’t mean you’re an asshole.
pdb - February 4, 2010
He was much better with the media last year than in '08.
He probably deserves at least some bit of a break for that
ToddK - February 4, 2010
Yeah, and I don't really care if a player makes nice with the media or not
I was just trying to reason out why the “average fan” dislikes Bedard so much.
pdb - February 4, 2010
You are correct I'm sure.
My hope is that the “average fan” gives him a little leeway.
ToddK - February 4, 2010
Bur isn't the perfect "Seattle" player?
Doesn’t make eye-contact, won’t talk to strangers, would rather just be left alone in his own little world. It’s like the epitome of the Seattle passive-aggressive character. He’s perfect. Call him “Mr. Seattle Freeze”
wandergeist - February 4, 2010
It's not necessarily just last season.
When Felix hit the grand slam off of Santana in ’08, Bedard was probably freaking out more than anyone.
Go back and check out the videos.
JY - February 4, 2010
Hey, not Z-ing through everything at once means redundant comments.
JY - February 4, 2010
I have the opposite feeling about Bedard than the average fan, I guess.
I’ve pretty much always liked him. I think it’s partly because I relate to the whole shyness thing. I’m not the most outgoing when I first meet a group of people. Last year, I got sweet tickets for a game against the Rangers, 5 rows behind the M’s dugout section 124. My friends and I had a great time shouting things at the players (all encouraging). It was great when Bedard turned around and acknowledged us. It was the game where we were down 6-2 and almost came back to win it. We actually ended up getting on TV wearing our rally caps right before Jose Lopez struck out in the 9th to end the game.
seattle_since_81 - February 4, 2010
I guess it was between here and Baltimore from what the media was saying. And I have seen The Wire and Fraiser, so I know why he chosen Seattle.
EnglishMariner - February 4, 2010
Baltimore does have better crab cakes
pdb - February 4, 2010
Fraiser makes we want to shoot up
Bearskin Rugburn - February 4, 2010
In a good way?
Zwakamatsu - February 4, 2010
It's like he never left!
lemonverbena - February 4, 2010
Neato
Poochie - February 4, 2010
Nice.
Robert - February 4, 2010
SEXY TIME
abender20 - February 4, 2010
Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees!
Slurvey - February 4, 2010
So if Bedard does come back ~All Star Break, who's spot does he take?
Does this basically mean the M’s aren’t going to get another starter before ST, even though they have around $7mil left to spend, depending on the Bedard deal?
ManifestDestiny - February 4, 2010
First, there's no use getting ahead of yourself. If Bedard comes back, then the team will figure it out when he's healthy.
Secondly, do not assume to know the budget.
Matthew - February 4, 2010
I think when you look at everything that's happened...
You realize the Ms are probably on a tighter budget than most have been estimating.
lailaihei - February 4, 2010 via mobile
I have a feeling Z is working on something
The Mariners have passed up on some medium cost players recently for league minimum, seemingly to preserve the budget. Brynes over Damon indicates this. I wouldn’t be surprised if they announced a trade for Hamels or something within a day.
_David_ - February 4, 2010
Aside from the Byrnes-RHB, Damon-LHB problem I still disagree with you completely.
Faux - February 4, 2010
this thread seems safe for speculation
I’ll admit the super low cost pickups are more likely due to the names available than a specific plan to aquire someone. Still, I’d go for a Haren trade.
_David_ - February 4, 2010
Haren isn't available.
Goose - February 4, 2010
Lee shouldn't have been available
_David_ - February 4, 2010
Yeah but Philly got an upgrade over Lee in the process.
Goose - February 4, 2010
And Lee also has just one year left on his contract, whereas Haren has 5.
Goose - February 4, 2010
Woops, he only has 4 years left.
Goose - February 4, 2010
understood
_David_ - February 4, 2010
The trade was still fucking dumb on their part
Poochie - February 4, 2010
Well yeah.
Goose - February 4, 2010
So by this logic we should ask STL for Pujols
tait644 - February 4, 2010
So, is this the pitcher Kingston was referring to?
Goose - February 4, 2010
No that was Washburn :)
Bearskin Rugburn - February 4, 2010
I have been thinking about this and I believe so, especially if these rumours that an offer has actually been made turn out to be true.
He stated that it was likely it would be concluded this week. I also can’t see us picking up another pitcher if we get Bedard.
EnglishMariner - February 4, 2010
Yeah, I thought of Fusco's comments last night about wanting one more pitcher
when I saw this news.
marc w - February 4, 2010
yes please
Can’t wait for September baseball
Bohawk - February 4, 2010 via mobile
October baseball's even better!
pdb - February 4, 2010
And November!
EnglishMariner - February 4, 2010
BASEBALL SHOULD NEVER BE PLAYED IN NOVEMBER
November baseball is as much of an affront to my purist sporting tendencies as non-3pm-on-Saturday start times are for English soccer.
pdb - February 4, 2010
Northern teams + Open-air stadii + November baseball = December baseball!
waldo rojas - February 4, 2010
Wow you would have let the terrorists win back in 01
Poochie - February 4, 2010
Did they lose?
Sec 108 - February 4, 2010
Yes
The Diamondbacks beat them.
wandergeist - February 5, 2010
IF THEY WOULD HAVE PROMISED THAT BASEBALL ENDED IN OCTOBER YES I WOULD HAVE
pdb - February 4, 2010
Awesome signing
Should pay dividends come june/july when he’s healthy, get 2 great starts, then trade bait. High risk, high reward.
Just a risk that Bedard who had his shoulder surgery after Wang (who they predict wont be ready till midseason). So either Bedard is a fast healer or great optimism.
MagicMike23 - February 4, 2010
It's not done.
Matthew - February 4, 2010
Like Matthew said, not done
Also, if we’re only giving him $1.5M, it isn’t really high risk
Griffin Cooper - February 4, 2010
If a King Felix, Lee, Bedard trio for 1 great season
Can end 8 seasons of no playoffs, this is the best shot since 2001.
MagicMike23 - February 4, 2010
If we were to fill out our rotation with Bedard, Smoltz and Pedro
or some mix of high upside risks, is it worth spending the rest of our budget on, or is the risk/diminishing returns if we make the postseason not worth it?
_David_ - February 4, 2010
8-man rotation!
Bearskin Rugburn - February 4, 2010
Nobody knows what the M's budget actually is though
pdb - February 4, 2010
Worst case, thats ideal trade bait come july
Teams value track record and veteran experience
MagicMike23 - February 4, 2010
I'm really hoping this is a witty and ironic crack
cwel87 - February 4, 2010
As long as other teams value it the M's can exploit it when they need to
pdb - February 4, 2010
I like RRS too much for him to not be in the rotation.
SethGrandpa - February 4, 2010
This
I have an irrational love for him as a player as well. I don’t want to know the truth about his numbers. I want to believe in that shiny ERA
BQueezy - February 5, 2010
SHOTS. OF WHISKEY.
royalcurve - February 4, 2010
It's past noon. Go for it, sista!
melenious - February 4, 2010
What's noon got to do with it?
Andrew E - February 4, 2010
Its always past noon somewhere.
jtopps - February 4, 2010
That was the mantra of a large number of highschool students on Saturday mornings in Puyallup.
JAH - February 4, 2010
Pappy van Winkle here I come
Bearskin Rugburn - February 4, 2010
Pour me one over here!
appleshampoo - February 4, 2010
So assuming this is happening. and assuming Bedard's mostly healthy come Juneish,
would a Felx-Lee-Bedard-RRS-Snell rotation be the best we’ve ever had talent wise?
Goose - February 4, 2010
The Randy/Moyer/Fassero trio was pretty damn awesome.
I can’t remember who filled out the rotation, but they probably sucked more than RRS.
Jed MC - February 4, 2010
Ken Cloude & Billy Swift?
msb - February 4, 2010
Swift was long gone by then.
Sec 108 - February 4, 2010
Or had he come back?
Sec 108 - February 4, 2010
He was in the '98 rotation
msb - February 4, 2010
'97 was Wocott & Olivares
msb - February 4, 2010
Wolcott.
msb - February 4, 2010
Sometimes Mike Timlin would start, go three innings, and then be relieved by Paul Spoljaric. Who would then go another three innings.
Ah the memories.
BRKLN M'S - February 4, 2010
Derek Lowe got some starts during that span too
Although it was his first time in the majors, and didn’t do so well. On a pure talent standpoint, they’re probably not equal, but considering Randy Johnson’s overwhelming awesomeness, they stack up pretty well.
nathaniel dawson - February 4, 2010
It was supposed to be an awesome foursome
Scott Mothafuckin Sanders
Poochie - February 4, 2010
These both seem like dangerous assumptions
Jeff Sullivan - February 4, 2010
Nah, no one will get hurt except for Bedard.
Sec 108 - February 4, 2010
Maybe this will be a throwaway post of its own
but by FIP vs. league average, 1987 and 1993 tied for the best in franchise history, at +10%.
Jeff Sullivan - February 4, 2010
Would like to see a team option for 2011
tait644 - February 4, 2010
Yes me too but Bedard has little reason to agree to that
Jeff Sullivan - February 4, 2010
If it's a healthy enough option and the team ups his incentives in return, he might go for it.
Pipe dream much, I suppose. I don’t think they’d up the guaranteed money to get the option year in. It’s already going to hurt them a bit if they want to add a player during the season.
nathaniel dawson - February 4, 2010
What would Bedard really cost the team right now? Olsens roster spot on the 40 man?
At least if he signs with the the Mariners Bedard might sign my photo I sent him.
mark sobba - February 4, 2010
Nice shot
BRKLN M'S - February 4, 2010
Very!
royalcurve - February 4, 2010
Thank you, BM and RC.
mark sobba - February 4, 2010
Very good action shot.
Do you have one of him where he “gathers” himself right before he throws?
Slurvey - February 4, 2010
Maybe on my hard drive. I take a lot of photos.
mark sobba - February 4, 2010
Your Flickr is pretty impressive.
Slurvey - February 5, 2010
Thanks I have been doing it for awhile now.
mark sobba - February 7, 2010
If you don't mind me asking, what lenses are you using? They seem to be handling low light pretty well
BRKLN M'S - February 6, 2010
I use a Nikon D200 box with the Nikon 80-200 f/2.8 D lens for shooting baseball.
This is a review of the lens.
Sports photography is all about timeing, waiting and positioning. I don’t shoot at Safeco unless I can get close (under row 15) and around the net. The photographer in me is going to hate it when I can’t get low enough to take photos anymore. But that is why there is Spring Training, the Fall League and the minors to get good shots of baseball.
mark sobba - February 7, 2010
So now comes
the month and a half of rumors on if we’ve officially signed Bedard or not.
Fuckmikereilly - February 4, 2010
Further confirmation
For anyone else out there who’s still nervous, Gregg Bell from AP confirms.
Fuckmikereilly - February 4, 2010
I will rest one percent easier. Thank you.
royalcurve - February 4, 2010
Still, saying it's close isn't really the "confirmation."
SethGrandpa - February 4, 2010
I think that'd fall under 'futher speculation'
kentroyals5 - February 4, 2010
Confirmation of speculaton?
msb - February 5, 2010
Which spews more overheated odors?
Greg Bell or Taco Bell?
Steve Nelson - February 4, 2010
There is a difference?
mark sobba - February 4, 2010
My goodness, but there are some reader panties in a twist over USSM's Jim Street thread.
msb - February 4, 2010
*steam coming out of ears*
Jeff Nye - February 4, 2010
You are a Saint.
That’s all I am going to say.
msb - February 4, 2010
That's sweet of you to say.
I won’t say any more because I don’t want to bring the conflict over here.
Jeff Nye - February 4, 2010
Tip of the cap to you sir.
ToddK - February 5, 2010
Yes there is.
Things seem to be a bit more lighthearted over here at LL.
jenasmaster - February 4, 2010
I was excited about Bedard....
last spring… but we all saw how that worked out. Bedard has potential, and could be a solid number 3, but I really hope the M’s give Snell and French spots, I see their potential and could be a factor this year.
mariseanerhawk - February 5, 2010
Bedard isn't ready until June anyways
Start the year with Felix, Lee, RRS, Snell and French
Odds are by the ASB either Snell or French will be a candidate for being replaced..
You can’t ever assume on your opening day rotation going the full season, so we potentially have a safety net to step in for whoever appears to falter. (if Bedard can not break)
BQueezy - February 5, 2010
So now the question is
If Bedard comes back healthy, and the 1-2-3 punch of Felix, Lee and Bedard get us to the WS… do we still hate Bavasi for the trade?
BQueezy - February 5, 2010
No doubt.
It was, and will always be a terrible trade. If Adam Jones and Tillman both flame out, it will be a terrible trade. Trading an immense amount of talent for any one player is dumb.
Not to mention, even if you exclude the Bedard trade, there are so so so many reasons to hate Bavasi.
Fuckmikereilly - February 5, 2010
If Bedard had already won a Cy Young as a Mariner
I would still hate the trade
Bearskin Rugburn - February 5, 2010
Yes.
I would love to have a 1-2-3 punch of Felix, Lee, Tillman right about now. Sherrill was one of the first players I really lobbied for to make the big leagues. Mickolio is a cheap young reliever. Adam Jones is already an all-star. Butler is still… I don’t know, interesting.
I realize that you go at it from a revisionist standpoint and say “well, if Adam Jones, then no Guti”, and I understand that. I also understand that being able to retain Bedard if only for a year increases the perceived return from the deal.
That doesn’t change that it was a risky deal centering around bad data that had the potential to cripple the team for years. That it really didn’t I would consider to be a minor miracle.
I don’t hate Bedard. I’m happy that he’s here so long as he is, and see no reason to hold him responsible for something outside of his control. He hasn’t pushed us over the top as was originally anticipated, but he’s earned his money and done well.
But that trade was fucking awful, and remains so.
JY - February 5, 2010
The only way I can rationalize that trade was that it was the move that finally rid us of Bavasi.
BrianL - February 5, 2010
But it didn't! I sort of rationalize the Silva signing as the thing that rid us of Bavasi.
It’s why I can’t really hate Silva…. he was the poster boy for everything that was wrong with Bavasi’s roster construction, and I sort of appreciated him for doing so ‘well’ in that role.
marc w - February 5, 2010
Ssshhhh let me cling to this.
BrianL - February 5, 2010
You keep yours, I'll keep mine. And hey... he's gone! High five!
marc w - February 5, 2010
Woooo!
BrianL - February 5, 2010
It wouldn't surprise me if Adam Jones will have a better career
Edgar for Pres - February 5, 2010
I will tolerate this.
But mention Tillman and you get a death glare.
JY - February 5, 2010
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