Neftali Feliz has faced all of 117 batters at the Major League level. According to swinging strike percentage, among relief pitchers with at least 20 expected innings pitched, Neftali Felix ranked 85th out of 263 eligible pitchers. According to my strike zone calculations, he ranked tied for 192nd for throwing pitches in the zone. By ground ball percentage, he was 186th. His rates have not been markedly better in the minors, even accounting for the RP/SP role differences.
He posted amazing ERA numbers in 2009 thanks in almost total part to a line drive rate of 5%, a BABIP of .185 and a HR/FB rate of 5%. Feliz might turn turn out to be better than most pitchers are reducing line drives against, but nobody is anywhere close to that good. He will allow more line drives, he will allow more hits and he will allow more home runs. And he will not continue striking out one out of every three batters with just a 10.3% swinging strike rate.
Neftali Feliz has been a slightly below average pitcher in terms of getting ground balls while showing below average control and well above average stuff. He's certainly a good prospect, but given that he's yet to debut in the rotation at the big league level and that even if he improves his control, he's unlikely to suddenly start getting more ground balls, the amount of hype he gets around here is out of proportion to his actual abilities demonstrated so far.
Yes, he throws fast. Averaging just under 96 mph with his fastball last season put him 12th in the majors, but that's going to fall is he starts throwing multiple innings. Furthermore, he's unlikely to hold onto even this level of success in the rotation throwing 70% fastballs. Feliz will probably become a pretty good pitcher down the line for Texas. The odds that he does that in the rotation are less certain and the odds that he does that in the rotation during 2010 are pretty slim.
Calm down.
0 recs | 52 comments
I like Neftali Feliz
But I’m glad I’m not the only one thinking folks are getting too carried away. Even Felix needed a few years in the Majors to truly grow into his King status.
Feliz could be great…or maybe not. Either way, it’s going to take time to find out.
ThundaPC - March 22, 2010
Uh okay
This stuff happens with prospects all the time. Calm down.
MattPD - March 22, 2010
Also
Hard to fault people for loving his upper 90’s fastball, high strike out counts, and low ERA. I understand what it takes for him to be a good pitcher, but hype isn’t built around ground ball ratios. Its just hype, and he still has a lot of room to grow as a pitcher, but I think everybody can agree he’s done pretty damn good with the situation he’s been presented with so far.
MattPD - March 22, 2010
It's pretty easy to fault people for getting overly attached to a low ERA actually
Graham MacAree - March 22, 2010
Blake Hawksworth!
vivaelpujols - March 22, 2010
Notice the word "Yet"
OlSalty - March 22, 2010
That's a pointless counter argument.
Just because it happens “all the time” does not mean it is unwarranted to point out that it is premature.
Matthew - March 22, 2010
Well why get riled up over it?
Like him saying these things are gonna have people second guessing Feliz? Doubt it. I’ll keep it in my back pocket, but seems like a weird way to go about attacking people for gushing over an elite prospect who has produced well so far in his very young career.
MattPD - March 22, 2010
I'm confused by the initial response, MattPD.
What “stuff” happens all the time? Anomalies? And are you telling Matthew to calm down, after he just told us to calm down? My head is going to explode.
This is bat country!
circa81 - March 22, 2010
People over-hyping prospects happens all the time.
I’ll be more clear next time, didn’t mean to nearly cause your head to explode. And yes, everybody should calm down. Nothing out of the ordinary when talking about projecting prospects. Everybody should have their own opinions on the matter and I just think its kinda silly to get all worked up over other people liking the kid, even if it is too much. Just my opinion though.
MattPD - March 22, 2010
Who's worked up?
Jeff Sullivan - March 22, 2010
Who's riled up?
Who is “him”?
And yes, I would expect people to read this and perhaps consider whether they have been over valuing him.
Using numbers to point out why over-reaching hype of a prospect is premature is a weird way of attacking hype? You’re not making any sense to me whatsoever.
Matthew - March 22, 2010
Uh oh
Now you’ve made him angry
Dewey N - March 22, 2010
Yeah....let's not tempt fate. Fate hates us.
OlSalty - March 22, 2010
9,250 google hits beg to differ
BigR - March 22, 2010
Who-hoo!
Google-Fight!
ThundaPC - March 22, 2010
Blog WAR!
Interesting…
Slurvey - March 22, 2010
I bet LL's WAR is somewhere around 6.5.
katal - March 22, 2010
Wins above replacement blog?
I would suggest the WARb is much higher, somewhere around Guti circa 2009 levels. If we adjust for position (baseball sports blogs) I can only imagine a much higher value.
rbr07 - March 23, 2010
Question for Matthew:
Did you call him “Neftali Felix” in the 3rd paragraph on purpose as an inside joke here or do you reflexively jab at the X key after every “FELI” that you type?
Rev Halofan - March 22, 2010
The latter.
Matthew - March 22, 2010
Could be worse, we could still be referring to him as "Neftali Perez" like we did for half of last season
when him and Martin Perez for some reason became a huge collaboration of awesome who were going to kill us forever
seattlebruin - March 22, 2010
Ambidextrous!
Bearskin Rugburn - March 22, 2010
As a Rangers fan,
Martin Perez has me more excited than Feliz.
Feliz still has issues to work out with his off-speed pitches and command. Perez doesn’t. He just needs to get older and work his way though the system.
e2drummer - March 23, 2010
I am guilty of this.
EnglishMariner - March 23, 2010
You did have Feliz and Holland projected to combine for 3.5 WAR at one point
just sayin
Bearskin Rugburn - March 22, 2010
No I didn't.
I had that rotation slot projected to combine for 3.5 WAR, which I felt was mainly going to be handled by Feliz + Holland + some others starts.
And then I lowered it, which is really the whole point.
Matthew - March 22, 2010
You did
it’s in the archives. I know you revised it, and I understand that you were talking about a job share. But can you honestly say that at that point you didn’t think he was going to be a very good pitcher in 2010?
Bearskin Rugburn - March 22, 2010
What does it matter what he thought at that point?
He has since changed his mind.
Jeff Sullivan - March 22, 2010
I guess I'm justifying the tendency to overestimate Feliz
If Matthew can make that mistake what hope is there for the rest of us?
Bearskin Rugburn - March 22, 2010
Perhaps Matthew is not the cyborg we thought he was?
abender20 - March 22, 2010
Yeah I'm really confused what you are arguing about.
abender20 - March 22, 2010
Not arguing at all
Bearskin Rugburn - March 22, 2010
You still aren't getting it.
The wins were assigned to slots, not particular players. I quote myself:
The Felix + Holland slot was never saying Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland will combine to be worth 3.5 wins. It was saying I project the third rotation slot, which I expect to be manned a majority of the time by either Feliz or Holland, to combine out for 3.5 wins.
That’s a vitally important distinction on it’s own and never mind that even if you did take it at face value, which is wrong, it only speaks to the value of the two combined and not to Feliz by himself.
Matthew - March 22, 2010
OK
Bearskin Rugburn - March 22, 2010
I'm sorry, my tone got out of hand here.
I felt that I was being nitpicked to death and got defensive. I didn’t intend any hostility, but I felt it an important point to make.
Matthew - March 22, 2010
Don't worry about it.
My comment can easily be construed as saying that you’re contradicting yourself, which isn’t what I meant.
Bearskin Rugburn - March 22, 2010
Neftali Feliz hype here
isn’t as bad as Jason Heyward hype on other sites I visit.
bluemax - March 22, 2010
Well Jason Heyward set fire to the Hall of Fame last weekend just because
Jeff Sullivan - March 22, 2010
I heard that the Kennedy assassination was on account of Heyward hitting a ball so hard that it ripped through the space/time fabric.
I guess he shouldn’t have been hitting second.
abender20 - March 22, 2010
Jason Heyward attached Jablome to his last name in order to get cheap laughs from hearing people solicit sexual favors in the voice of Walter Cronkite
Dewey N - March 22, 2010
Jason Heyward made it through all 1,000 words of your Rob Johnson post.
circa81 - March 22, 2010
That was tongue-in-cheek by the way.
I rec’d your Rob Johnson post ;)
circa81 - March 23, 2010
I would argue that his 2009 major league numbers are basically meaningless
Scouts feel very highly about his stuff, and I wonder how Jeremy Greenhouse’s StuffRV thinks about him.
vivaelpujols - March 22, 2010
I don't think "meaningless" is the best word to use
nor do I think you believe it, though, so, eh.
Feliz does have incredible stuff, and that’s obviously why he’s been hyped up so much. He’s a phenomenal prospect. But he’s a phenomenal prospect with a K/BB of 2 against AA/AAA competition so far as a starter. He could arrive at any moment as a bright young ace, but he’s not there yet, and though he’s a good/great reliever, he’s only a reliever for now.
Jeff Sullivan - March 22, 2010
Well, not meaningless
But about as meaningful as a 117 batter’s faced could be ;)
And wow, holy crap, his K:BB numbers really have do drop as a starter – I gotta think much more so than the average pitcher. I wonder if it’s a velocity thing.
vivaelpujols - March 22, 2010
Contact rate's a little more meaningful over 117 batters, but otherwise, yeah
The K/BB isn’t necessarily a huge concern, considering Felix was right at 2 in Tacoma before getting promoted. But it’s a question mark.
Jeff Sullivan - March 22, 2010
That's kind of the point.
Matthew - March 22, 2010
I wonder about how StuffRV sees a lot of people.
I’d love to see a spreadsheet for MLB, the way Greenhouse did for that initial study (pre-stuffrv).
marc w - March 23, 2010
Thanks for talking sense Matthew.
I’ve been more alarmist than most about Feliz, I’m glad that there is hope that mankind may actually survive his impending arrival.
EnglishMariner - March 23, 2010
For some reason, your "Neftali Feliz will destroy us all updates" make me think "EM" every time I read something about him.
Decatur - March 23, 2010
Do you still refuse to accept my godhood?
Janic - March 23, 2010
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