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Let's Talk About Mike Sweeney Some More!

(Don't miss this week's LL Podcast, which is now only a little outdated!)

This is something that's been bothering me for a few weeks, now, so I might as well take a little time to address it. After all, it's only a rare, beautiful day outside in a Portland March. Why not find something to blog about? Computers!

Over the course of the month, a clear divide between Mariner fans has developed. There've been the people in support of Mike Sweeney returning, and the people not in support of Mike Sweeney returning. It's not that simple, of course - it's never that simple - but that captures the bulk of it. Some people have wanted to see Sweeney back on the team, and others have not.

The people who wanted Sweeney to come back have pointed out, almost to a man, what Sweeney did down the stretch in 2009. Mike Sweeney, you'll remember, came off the DL on July 21st and hit .311/.372/.500 the rest of the way over 137 trips to the plate. He was one of the team's best hitters in the second half, and this little fact has been brought up time and time again in stating that Sweeney can still hit a ton when he's healthy. "You can't get rid of Sweeney," many have argued, "because he might be the best hitter on the team when he's not battling injuries."

You may not be surprised to find out that I don't put much stock in this analysis. Let me tell you why!

  • That stretch of 137 plate appearances wasn't the only span of time that Sweeney was healthy. He was healthy for most of April, posting a .708 OPS. He was healthy each time he came back from an injury, until the next time he got hurt. Sweeney wasn't battling through blinding back pain the way Branyan was. Sweeney tweaked his back three times - all on swings, I believe - and missed time before coming back feeling better. You could make a pretty convincing argument that Sweeney was "healthy" for nearly all of his at bats, because when he was hurt, he didn't play. And Sweeney wasn't much of an asset overall, considering his total batting line came in a platoon role.

  • Those 137 red-hot plate appearances obviously represent a really small sample. 137 plate appearances is what a leadoff hitter might get in a month. I don't think I need to tell you how much regression you need to apply to a sample of 137 plate appearances. Through Juan Pierre's first 137 plate appearances last year, he hit .397. Over the remaining 288, he hit .266. Mike Sweeney isn't some unknown. We know a lot about him. Mike Sweeney hasn't hit that well over an extended period of time since 2005, when he was much much younger. Note that his BABIP during the hot stretch was .333, against a career .301.

  • Even if we choose to believe that Sweeney was only truly healthy for that last hot stretch, why does that matter? Sweeney posted a. 745 OPS between 2006-2008, and had a .678 OPS before coming off the DL with the Mariners. People in support of Sweeney ignore all this time because "he was hurt," and not healthy, the way he was in the second half. But in that event, we have a couple months of Sweeney being healthy, and several years of Sweeney being hurt. Several years. Go here. Type in Mike Sweeney's name. You see all that? Mike Sweeney gets hurt. Kind of a lot. What does it matter what he can do when he's healthy if he's practically never healthy? Aging sucks. Aging makes people get hurt. You can't stop aging.

Look, I like Mike Sweeney just fine. I'm not trying to incite some crusade against the guy and everything he stands for. I think it's kind of cute that our DH platoon consists of our franchise icon and somebody else's too. But the people who support having Sweeney on the team need to be realistic about what he brings to the table. In the poll below, I voted for "Make it better" because I don't think that ST data is literally 100% meaningless, but it doesn't make it so much better that I think Sweeney is really good. He's not. He's posted a .750 OPS over his last 1000 trips to the plate, and that's probably about what we should expect from him this season. Maybe a little better as a platoon bat. But nothing spectacular. .311/.372/.500 is not representative of Mike Sweeney's true talent. It's just the batting line he put up over a limited number of games.

Back in 2006, Mike Sweeney came off the DL and hit .275/.367/.497 over a month and a half. The next year he OPS'd .719.

2 recs  |  80 comments

Comments

I am fine with having Sweeney on this team.

But not Sweeney and Griffey. Even then, I would prefer them to be bench bats exclusively, not a DH platoon. Milton Bradley is a perfect DH platoon by himself. This team is better off with Bradley at DH and running a LF platoon of Byrnes and Langerhans.

I am not too worried about this situation, though, because this team can change quickly. We thought Endy Chavez was going to play a full season in LF last year. Instead, he got injured and GMZ found a replacement. Sweeney and Griffey are prone to injury and I would count on something changing before June.

Sweeney's back, free hugs for everyone!

EAT IT JOHNSON!

Do I sense that you might be just a little tired of talking about Mike Sweeney?

(I know I am)

I have a whole other post I'm thinking of writing about him too

GET OUT OF MY BRAIN

Mike Sweeney as a pitcher? Find out at 11
Mike's Weeney
I support there being another Mike Sweeney post as long as you use this as the title.
I don't think I would enjoy the Google traffic
Profit motherfucker!

Comcast doesn’t pay you in Greek drachma.

Which is good, because that would be nearly useless
Until the Euro collapses...
Oh, but I would, were you to post it!
I wanna say first off that I'm not super pro Mike Sweeney, I think there could be better options.

But someone pointed out that Garko would be the better option because he’s had a better wOBA over the past 5 years. Well I was curious, so I did some research on Fangraphs and found out that Garko and Sweeney have had the about the same wOBA over that stretch of time. I can’t remember the exact numbers, but If some one wants me to go and back myself up feel free to ask, I will.

Garko's career Fangraphs wOBA is .347

Sweeney hasn’t touched that since 2005.

OK,I miss calculated...

Averaged over last 4 years

wOBA Garko: 348.5

wOBA Sweeney: 326.25

Still, isn’t league average wOBA like .320 or .330?

Ok I think I replied failed again,

are you supposed to reply under your last comment in a conversation, or under the last person that responded to you?

If it's a reply to a specific post, reply to that post.

But there’s really no hard-and-set rules about it. Your “OK,I miss calculated…(sic)” post would work fine as either a reply to Jeff’s post or to your original post, as it could either be seen as a reply to his comment or as an amendment to your original post, wouldn’t matter much. Play it by ear, do what makes sense, and don’t fret over it too much (as long as you’re not replying at the bottom of the page of course)

Thank you, that clears it up a TON.
over the last 5 years
thats what i'm argueing
Because someone argued that
AHH

Thanks Matt sorry

I forget since i’m not such a usual poster

I do follow this whole blog daily though.
Two more things!

1. My name, as you can see, is Matthew. Not Matt.
2. Personal pronouns, such as ‘I’, are capitalized.

Thank you for your future adherence.

Oops, I was too slow!
To save you a bit of grief, he prefers Matthew
will do, thanks
You have 400 comments here!
What I meant was that I don't post quite as often as the regulars here,

But wow, I remember when I first joined, and I was complaining how I would never be able to compete with the amount of comments some of the people here have. Time sure goes fast…

I forgot we used to have a different font color on the byline.
The color difference now serves as a natural highlight.

Do you guys have input or control of the colors being used?

That's Ichiro and Sweeney in the photo right?

Why is Ichiro a former Indian? Am I missing a reference somewhere?

He's standing in CF
Ahh I get it now.

The ‘sets his sight’ language made me think Sweeney was supposed to be looking at him. That was stupid of me.

I thought the same thing
He's talking about Guti, right?
Ichiro is racist against Indians, and baserunners specifically
Maybe Z is a wizard.

Banking on clubhouse alchemy, looking for some magic in those old bats, plus he can turn all the hair on his body invisible.

But in all seriousness, Sweeney was given the tiniest sliver of a chance of making the roster, and he jumped all over it. He went out and earned himself a job, and I respect that. I know this roster cannot last the season and contend, but that’s really not a big deal. As was said earlier, the Mariners lineup will probably be significantly different in June. Honestly, given the choice between Sweeney and Garko for the short term, I would choose Sweeney. And if it doesn’t work out, it’s just in the short term. Things can change on a major league team. They almost always do. But for now, this team has a better chance of winning tomorrow with Mike Sweeney than with Ryan Garko. As soon as that statement becomes untrue, it’s time to make a change. But for now, I want Sweeney on the team.

Amen

IMHO, yes Chemistry is good, but GMZ has objectively concluded that Sweeney gives the Mariners a better chance to succeed. The Man has a substantial career demonstrating that he is a Plus hitter, and ignoring the fact that he has gone all out during the offseason to get on this team is insane. I know that a lot of fans of this site either don’t understand, or don’t want to acknowledge what it means for someone at this stage of a storied career to go to this effort to make a team – but it is HUGE! I readily admit that no amount of effort or desire can overcome all of the effects of Father Time, but do you even have any inkling of how much this guy WANTS to make the team and contribute? And no, you won’t find the answer to that question in fangraphs. The Man is the penultimate response to what you will not find in the stat sheets.

And for the record, I am REALLY happy with the decision to go with Kotchman as the everday first baseman. I was not at all a fan of the Kotchman move early on, but I’ve become a believer. I think he’s going to be a pivotal player, and is going to be MUCH more valuable that Branyon would have been, and platooning with Garko would have been disastrous. I don’t see Garko as being even an iota better against lefties as Kotchman.

Yeah, yeah, i absolutely admit to being a homey. And I knew at some point the comments like “GMZ and Wak are the greatest ever, and they’re brilliant, but on this one point I think I’m so much smarter, and I don’t understand why they are so dumb” were going to emerge. I tried to be prepared and not go crazy – BUT THOSE KINDS OF REMARKS DRIVE ME CRAZY!

If his desire to play baseball is so strong that he can become a superhero, where have these powers been the last three years?

He used to be a plus hitter. That was a long time ago. Crushing AA pitchers for a few weeks doesn’t change the fact that he’s not much of a big league player anymore.

And no one’s discounting how hard he’s trying. I’m happy as hell for him, and I imagine most people around here would agree. But that’s an entirely different discussion from “is this guy going to improve the team?” I love Mike Sweeney, but his presence on the team really hurts the flexibility of the bench, particularly with Griffey on the team and Hannahan going on the DL. He’s played 24 games at first base in the past three years, and he’s not getting any quicker. Garko is the better player, as far as I can tell.

"Crushing AA Pitchers" will be the name of my new mashup side project with DJ Danger Mouse
I have just learned that the team is going with 11 pitchers, so I'm a little less frustrated by Sweeney's presence.
Rich Harden is a AA pitcher?

I get the context of ST performance, as does the M’s FO. While certainly part of the decision is made with the ST performance in mind – I believe the M’s FO is smart enough to not base this decision entirely on ST OR on ‘chemistry’…

I understand what you’re saying here, but whatever minuscule defensive differences between Garko and Sweeney exist, they weren’t going to really be highlighted/taken advantage of in the role that spot is going to play on this team. The M’s are giving, for better or for worse, Kotchman the same opportunity they gave Branyan and Gutierrez last year. He’s the starter and is going to get as much time there, platoon opportunities be damned. Just because Garko is less likely to break down than Sweeney is playing first base doesn’t mean he’s really an option you want playing there much. And since Kotchman’s going to get a huge bulk of the reps there, whoever his backup is really isn’t going to get much PT.

Even if you think Garko’s a servicable first baseman that could play more than once a week, he certainly can’t play anywhere else (except DH, which, yeah, on this roster — stand in freakin’ line). The argument that Sweeney over Garko takes away flexibility is not very sound. Yes, technically Garko’s youth and that he’s less-broken, historically, gives him a little bit of an edge over Sweeney, but defensively Garko really doesn’t give you any more flexibility than Sweeney does. Maybe a little if you were counting on him in a reasonable platoon situation, but that’s clearly not the case here.

Let’s take one step further back. Let’s take Sweeney out of the picture completely…

Would losing Garko really be that big of a deal if it were Everidge or Nelson taking his spot? Technically, you still have the same defensive roster flexibility issues. At best these guys can hold down the fort at 1B for a game or two a week, but you really wouldn’t want them playing there much either. Sweeney can still play 1B on occasion, as needed, on a short-term basis – at least as much as one of those other guys could. Any difference between Sweeney and any one of those guys would be insignificant (defensively) at best. Whether Sweeney or one of these other types of players, you still have the roster flexibility problem.

And that’s one argument that I just won’t accept as a reason to be upset by this move. I’m just trying to be level-headed about it. I may sound like a Sweeney fanboy over my whole conversations about this – whatever. I do think Sweeney’s got a little left in the tank. I’m very much on board with Shield’s idea of running him into the ground. Is Garko so irreplaceable that when Sweeney (or Griffey for that matter) finally show that they can’t hit anymore the M’s will either not be able to or refuse to do anything about it? Doubtful.

One at bat against Rich Harden

And if we’re judging players by their spring training stats, Harden has been awful this spring.

This may not be the Mariner blog for you.

If it is then it may no longer be the Mariner blog for me.

Sometimes I, AS WELL, like to capitalize random WORDS that I type because it allows others to SEE just how EMPHATIC I am
Do you admit to being a homey though?
Don't PLAY me
I just don't understand, EMPHATICALLY!

Does Sweeney even own a glove? BUY THIS MAN A GLOVE! FATHER TIME! GARKO OPTIONS LOUD NOISES

All that's missing is the sound of shattering glass at the end of this post.
This is the penultimate way to express your excitement.
He hit .408 in last year's spring training

I guess he’s the type of player that feasts on terrible pitchers. Shocking.

I agree with some of what you're saying

I like that fact that GMZ allowed Sweeney a chance in ST to win a job, he performed and you can’t really discount that. That’s the right way to do things, if you play well you win a job, simple.

But he’s probably going to suck this year

He probably will,

and I’m hoping that the M’s will do what is necessary if/when it becomes clear that Sweeney cannot contribute to the success of the team as a ballplayer. Perhaps he’ll get an “oblique strain” that never really “heals” so he can hug it out all season from the 60-day DL.

Your conclusion would seem to directly contradict the logic of your first thought.
I can discount it

Putting up a month of good numbers in Spring Training is not the same as putting up a good month in the regular season, the quality of opponent tends to be much worse and players are not playing at their best level. Add to that that it’s only a month of data anyways, and there’s a pretty good case to be made that you should not be using Spring Training performance alone to make major roster changes. Results can be heavily influenced by luck or poor competition over such a short span.

If he’s probably going to suck this year, he shouldn’t have a job, that’s just hurting yourself unnecessarily. In the end it’s probably not that big of a deal, it’s just an annoying step backwards, however minor.

From the Mariners official game notes for today,

Nicknames are officially dead in American sports
I wish we could ban dog/dawg suffix as an acceptable nickname for anyone
I'd make an exception for Fred "The Crime Dog" McGriff.
That is the only one that makes sense
I'm just tired of hearing the "first initial and shortened last name" nickname plastered to damn near everyone.
Whatevs, J-Pro.
Byrnesie, Guti, Ichi, Lopey, Jackie, Figgy, Kotchy...

I mean, can we get away from all of these adding the eeeeee at the end of every name?

Then I find it funny those already with the eeeeee sound at the end of their name get something different.

Griffey —> Griff-dawg
Sweeney —> Sween-dawg
Bradley —> Racist jackass

There are still some good nicknames in baseball.
Oh sure. I'm sure there will always be a few good ones.

It’s more the process that frustrates me. The A-Rod, I-Rod (he already had a fucking awesome nickname!), K-Rod (at least slightly creative), etc. And the first-initial thing that JLProck mentions. And everyone just getting an “eee!” added at the end of their name. Lopey! Figgy! Cammy! (Though I guess that’s more of a way to show familiarity than it is a nickname, but still.)

Dice-K is the worst nickname ever. “That’s how you pronounce it!” Not really. And even if you did, it still makes zero sense. I suppose you could argue the whole K-strikeout thing, but I don’t get the “Dice.” It’s just changing the spelling of someone’s name to make it an English word? What am I missing here? Have we ever done that for any other player?

Finally, and I’ve ranted about this here before, not every athlete needs a nickname. If it doesn’t come naturally, just wait. Something will come. And if it doesn’t, oh well. At least we didn’t force it.

I care way too much about this.

I'm going to start calling David Wright "Day-vid Right."

David sounds the same as if you added “vid” to the word “day.” Plus he’s “right” handed! OH MAN!

Adding the -y to names drives me crazy too.

It’s generally managers/coaches that do that, right? Scioscia does it constantly, and it drives me nuts. ESPECIALLY when it actually adds a syllable to the name. Shieldsy is not acceptable, Mike.

Happens everywhere in sports, in broadcasting, etc. Totally annoying.
It's East Coast Bias at its finest...

It’s a part of the dialect in Boston to add “y” to people’s names. My relatives & friends from Boston do this to me every time — “Paul-y”

Personally, I prefer the southern drawl syllable expansion. When I taught ESL, I used to use that as an example for what syllables are. Turn my 1-syllable name “Paul” into 3-4 distinct syllables like “Paw-uh-uhlll-luh.”

Loafie is a great nickname, though
Absolutely.
You're welcome!
I prefer Choloafie
Baseball players and managers are horrendously uncreative. It's a problem.
(Casey) Crotchman, (Russell the) Love Muscle, Fister

And Mike’s Weeney, mentioned before.
Scratchy…as in Scratchy Byrnes

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