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Series Preview: Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners

Seattle: 2-5
Oakland: 5-2

MARINERS Δ Ms ATHLETICS EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)
-10.5 (28th) -3.3 5.9 (8th) Oakland
FIELDING (+/-)
6.0 (3rd) 6.0 3.0 (10th) Seattle
ROTATION (tRA)
-7.0 (25th) -4.0 5.1 (7th) Oakland
BULLPEN (tRA)
0.5 (14th) 0.4 0.7 (12th) Oakland
OVERALL(RAA)
-11.0 -0.9 14.7 OAKLAND






 

Well, that could have gone better again. While this is a troubling beginning to the season, there remains a long journey left to go. I don't want to say the real test begins now, but coming home hopefully gets the team out of its rut. This roster was assembled with Safeco Field in mind and as much as the lack of hitting has been a focus early on, the rotation has struggled almost as much. It's too early to make hay out of anything, especially pitching just seven turns in, but it gives us another reminder that the team we've seen so far is not the projected team from February. They're still sorting through the early roster fluctuations and almost everyone is in a slump. Patience.

UZRs are not out yet but thanks to Supreme Lord David Appleman implementing the Fielding Bible stats on FanGraphs, I am able to throw in the +/- runs above average (DRS) in the meantime. Unsurprisingly, the Mariners are already hovering near the top the league.

 

Mon Apr 12, 15:40: Ryan Rowland-Smith* vs. Justin Duchscherer

Tue Apr 13, 19:10: Doug Fister vs. Brett Anderson*

Wed Apr 14, 19:10: Jason Vargas* vs. Gio Gonzalez*

What's there to say? We just played these guys and saw two of these three starters. Gio Gonzalez is the new one and what he lacks in command (a lot), he tries to make up for with the ground balls that he gets from his curve ball. It was actually one of the best pitches in all of baseball last year at generating ground balls.

The Athletics do not have a potent offense. It's probably not as bad as ours, but it's still not likely to be above average at the end of the season. Safeco Field is home for us and the weather's supposed to be cool. It would be a great time to get some solid starts out of the back of our rotation.

Ryan Rowland-Smith Doug Fister Jason Vargas
Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 58% 88 45 65 35
Curve 20% 72 40 75 70
Change 16% 80 55 45 40
Overall -- -- 40 60 45
Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 49% 88 25 45 25
Change 28% 81 40 80 60
Curve 11% 75 65 30 80
Slider 6% 82 30 80 25
Sinker 6% 89 35 45 60
Overall -- -- 35 60 45
Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 62% 88 35 30 40
Change 18% 80 80 75 35
Sinker 9% 83 75 40 40
Slider 8% 82 20 20 35
Overall -- -- 45 45 35

Justin Duchscherer Brett Anderson Gio Gonzalez
Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 46% 85 45 40 45
Slider 27% 81 20 80 50
Curve 25% 70 70 60 60
Overall -- -- 45 65 50
Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 47% 93 40 40 50
Curve 30% 82 65 70 80
Slider 9% 84 40 65 80
Sinker 7% 90 30 70 50
Change 6% 84 20 55 55
Overall -- -- 45 55 70
Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 62% 91 65 45 35
Curve 28% 78 80 30 80
Change 7% 83 30 20 65
Overall -- -- 55 35 50

0 recs  |  55 comments

Comments

RAAANNNNNDYYYYY
Any chance he warms up and says screw it, I'm starting tonight?

Still glad I got to his start last year.

If he takes over for Fister, I can't say I'd be too sad
I have to imagine he wouldn't be any worse
The goosebumps are forming.
I totally forgot about that...yahhhhh!
Needs 8 of em.
Even with that grim preview, I can't wait to get to leave my hotel and get to the ballpark!
You call that grim?
Oh man don't mention the part about Griffey! being hurt then!
Only in that the edge is to Oakland. Sorry, bad word choice. And whoo Opening Day!
WOOO. BASEBALL. GO MS!
Yay safeco!

Let’s go Ms. Time to play at home!

We can get back in this thing by sweeping Oakland

We just need a good week to counteract the previous bad week.

The season is not over, though anyone’s fantasies of a great start to the year certainly are.

Fangraphs has Duchscherer's slider as a cutter

I presume you selected it as a slider based of scouting reports, right? Hopefully, Ms are patient this series with Gonzalez and Duchscherer. Neither has displayed great control. I would rather take my chances with their injury ladled bullpen. Especially after Tyson Ross went 3 innings and 40+ pitches last night.

Also, can I buy low on Duchscherer’s arm. Over 50 % breaking pitches when coming back from a season plagued by injuries and little innings.

I don't select anything, I just go by MLBAM's pitch classifications.

They aren’t as good as BIS, but like hell am I taking the time to do it manually. It’s good enough for unpaid blog work

Thanks for the clarification

The cutter would make more sense considering the K rating given to it. MLBAM really needs to look at the inconsistencies of their pitch data. I had to go through pains recently to convince a friend Burnett does not throw a knuckle-curve, unlike what gameday was saying.

I think it would have been really funny to convince him that Burnett actually did throw a knuckle curve
Pitch classification in real time is an incredibly difficult math problem
It would be much much easier if pitch f/x was fed a scouting report for each player first
Isn't it? The algorithm that chooses pitch type is supposed to take a pitcher's reportoire into account.

I’ve always assumed that data comes from a scouting report/from the team.

This new At-Bat thing they have is pretty useful

I’m tracking the Harden start right now for example, and it’s telling me he’s throwing a heater, splitter, slider and change up. I know that he doesn’t really do all those things, but I can get average velo fot each pitch (about the same) and average movement over the course of the game (also same). Pretty helpful.

It clearly doesn't, though
This was pretty obvious during Felix starts last year

it could never tell between his turbo change up and his two seamer

Can you?
Well the change I guess is usually a bit slower

so anything 90 and below I’d think was a change up and the 90-92 stuff sinker. Jeff had some trick to it as well, maybe horizontal movement?

I believe that it is sorta

I think that Mike Fast or someone provided the guy in charge of GameDay’s pitch classification with training data for each pitcher, or pitch type.

My ears! my ears!

I thought it would be Mariners Baseball, but I get Cowherd and Schilling instead

Awww, I just realized the M's game is at 3:40 PST

that kinda sucks

Really odd start time
Pretty typical start time for weekday day games
I'm just a little surprised that opening day on a weekday wouldn't be at least a 5:05 start time

though I guess they know they’re selling out either way since it’s Opening Day

They have done the home opener during the day every time at Safeco except for 2001.
Ya and what happened in 2001?

It seems with how superstitious baseball players are that this would have produced something.

I haven't been to many 3:40 games here on the East Coast.

It’s at 6:40 for me though which is perfect.

I think every team handles weekday matinees a little differently.
Used to be called the Businessman's Special

Opening Day (or home opener) is traditionally a day game. Monday at 12:40 would be an inconvenient time for the sold-out first game of the season, and I believe the start time is later so it’s easier to knock off work/school early and still make it to Opening Day. The Padres moved all but one of their weekday afternoon starts this year to 3:35, in part to reduce traffic/parking impact on downtown businesses and commuters. It also helps stimulate business if fans get out of the game at 6:30 and are looking for somewhere to have dinner.

With the exception of one other 3:40 start (Wednesday 9/16 vs. Boston), M’s start times this season are 12:40 for weekday day games.

Somewhat unrelated to this series but yay Lee and Bedard

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5075687

I wish I could be there tonight

Hopefully we’ll gain some momentum by being at home. I sure hope so… GO M’S!!

Randy! Randy! Randy!

A little homesauce never hurts for a slumping team…LET’S GO M’S!!!!

I hope Edgar, Buhner, and Wilson make apperances too

I’d love to see them reunited with Junior and Randy.

Happy Home Opener

Go M’s. Please win base ball games.

Oh dear

@ TNTmariners Wak said on KJR that Ian Snell has left the team with family issues

Does this mean it's Luke French time?
I'd imagine he'd be back before his next start.
Interesting.
Might explain the distracted pitching yesterday
That, or the fact that he kinda sucks.
I choose to consider it a combination of both!
News, and worthy of it's own post.

Lets try to keep this thread on this series. Ian Snell was not slated to start this series.

God, another series with the fucking A's.

Way to bore me to tears in the second week of the season, MLB schedulers.

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