Generally speaking, you can't tell a whole lot about a hitter through the first week and a half of the season, but sometimes you can tell a whole lot about a pitcher. Ben Sheets may be one such arm. Sheets has recorded three starts this year: April 5th, April 10th, and April 15th. Over those three starts (against us, LAnaheim, and Baltimore), he's walked ten and struck out eight in 17 innings. That's bad, and completely unlike the Ben Sheets we knew before.
But that's a small sample size of data. What if we look at something that might be a little more meaningful?
2008: 92.8mph average fastball
2010: 90.9mph
2008: 80.1mph average curve
2010: 77.8
Sheets has been topping out around 93 so far with his heater, well below the 95-96 he used to reach and more in line with his previous average. While we expect pitchers to be a little below 100% this early in the year - especially pitchers who didn't throw at all the year before - Sheets hasn't shown any improvement over his starts, actually seeing his average drop a little bit.
That's cause for some concern, and it has undoubtedly contributed to Sheets being so thoroughly hittable. Throw in the wildness and you've got yourself some real question marks. I know there were many fans - myself included - who wanted to see the M's get involved with Sheets and Rich Harden over the winter, but given their price tags and the fact that both are missing some of their previous effectiveness and velocity (by the way, Harden's down from 92.2 to 90.6), one has to wonder if the front office made the right call after all. While it's still very, very early, and there is plenty of time for things to change course, neither new arm has impressed.
(To complete the divisional rivals thing, Scott Kazmir sucks, but he's lower-profile.)
0 recs | 23 comments
I guess Jack and co. knew something we didn't.
(Or just, luckily, got outbid)
Coach Owens - April 16, 2010
Meanwhile, Erik Bedard came really, really cheap.
And doesn’t cost a whole heck of a lot until he actually performs.
ThundaPC - April 16, 2010
This kind of makes me happy but also kind of makes me sad.
waldo rojas - April 16, 2010
I still feel like you have to give Ben Sheets a little of a break for a month or two because he hasn't pitched in a long time.
Looking at his pitches he is also getting more horizontal movement and a little more vertical drop. I’m not sure if I believe these differences are big enough to think he is a drastically different pitcher. Instead I think his lack of success might have more to do with his command and control and it might take a little while for the rust to get worked out.
Edgar for Pres - April 16, 2010
I'm not sure, but I wonder if the added movement isn't just the result of lower velocity
I’m not declaring him a bust, by any means. The point of this post is simply that there’s reason for some people to be concerned.
Jeff Sullivan - April 16, 2010
Yeah I'm not sure
Maybe he knows he can’t throw as fast so he tries to increase the movement he is getting. Slower pitches like you said also would move more because there is more time for them to move since it takes more time to reach the plate.
Edgar for Pres - April 16, 2010
I still have to think that control is hurting him alot right now.
Normal zone% for him looks to be around 55% but this year he is all the way down to 47% although his first strike % is as good as it always was. This is confusing to me.
He also has very high out of zone contact although I’m not sure if this is a good thing (weak contact) or bad thing (low strikeouts). His in zone contact is the same it always is.
Edgar for Pres - April 16, 2010
On the subject of pitchers not playing for the 2010 Mariners
Carlos Silva is pulling a Cirillo in Chicago right now. Granted, it is against Houston, but it’s still not cool.
Nadingo - April 16, 2010
It doesn't really matter what Silva does over there
It would obviously be funnier if he kept sucking, but he means nothing to this team anymore.
Jeff Sullivan - April 16, 2010
Sure it doesn't matter
But I’d still be happier if he kept sucking. I’d rather not add him to the list of M’s players who played better once they left the team.
Nadingo - April 16, 2010
But really, how much better than awful can Silva be?
Unless he breaks his arm in an accident, and when it heals he can throw 100 mph fastballs, not very much better.
PissedMick - April 16, 2010
This seems like an odd scenario
Jackle Mackle - April 16, 2010 via mobile
Look at his career April stats and you'll feel better
refuse2lose2010 - April 16, 2010
Yeah, it sort of seems like a movie plot,
but it might be better if it was about a kid breaking his arm instead of an MLB pitcher.
seattle_since_81 - April 16, 2010
That sounds like it would be a funky-butt-lovin' movie.
RunningFool - April 16, 2010
I'm actually totally supportive of him succeeding
As long as he’s away from Seattle. I’ve got nothing against Silva the player, just Silva the Mariner.
MT Olson - April 16, 2010
The Cubs come to town June 22-24.
Who knows? He might come back to haunt us. I bet you he’s out of their rotation by then though.
lmeyer40 - April 16, 2010
I'm going to those games!
I just hope MB hits a HR off him.
RunningFool - April 16, 2010
The Astros are starting Chris Johnson, Tommy Manzella, and Humberto Quintero.
lailaihei - April 16, 2010
Is Humberto Quintero a former Mariner?
Or is he one of the shitty Hispanic catchers we haven’t gone through?
Mariner John - April 16, 2010
Nope.
He is a former Padre though, which back in the day would have made him a great deal more likely to be a Mariner in the future.
JY - April 16, 2010
I'd say more like a Spiroid or Pineiro.
And hey, it happens. Jamie Moyer was left for dead by a ton of teams, and wasn’t all THAT good for the Red Sox.
eponymous_coward - April 16, 2010
Of course, the flipside to this
is everyone going ZOMG THREE ACES ONCE LEE AND BEDARD ARE BACK might want to dial it back a little and wait to see them in action.
Thankfully, though, Bedard’s cheap and you should make that deal for Lee every time.
eponymous_coward - April 16, 2010
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