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Series Preview: Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners

Seattle: 6-7
Baltimore: 2-11

MARINERS Δ Ms ORIOLES EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)
-10.1 (25th) 3.3 -9.2 (23rd) Baltimore
FIELDING (+/-) 10.0 (6th) 3.0 -4.0 (25th) Seattle
ROTATION (tRA)
-7.9 (26th) -2.7 5.9 (8th) Baltimore
BULLPEN (tRA)
-1.2 (17th) -1.0 0.6 (12th) Baltimore
OVERALL(RAA)
-9.2 2.6 -6.7 BALTIMORE






 

Yeah! Woo! We're number one! We're number one! Alright!

Well, except for the A's. Who conveniently just got down playing the Orioles, who are baaaaaaaaaaad so far. How bad do you mean, Matthew? Like Astros bad? How about worse than Astros bad? I know! That's really bad! They did manage their second win of the season yesterday against Oakland, but rolled over for them in the first two games like they've rolled over for everyone so far which is about on par historically with the Romans at Cannae. It's going to be really irritating if they finally show up against Seattle. C'mon Baltimore, you just let our division leader destroy you and prevented us from gaining any ground against them. At least be an equal opportunity doormat.

The hitting is starting to come around and now they just need to stop running into so many damn out. That's okay though, we need to give them time. It's an adjustment to having base runners again, it's like getting your sea legs back.

 

Mon Apr 19, 19:10: Doug Fister vs. Brad Bergesen

Tue Apr 20, 19:10: Jason Vargas* vs. David Hernandez

Wed Apr 21, 19:10: Felix Hernandez vs. Kevin Millwood

The righty onslaught continues which is good news for you GriffLenters I suppose, though it remains to be seen if Milton Bradley gets some more time at DH soon with his most recent leg aches. It's also good news for Casey Kotchman and Wakamatsu, who gets to continue stacking the lineup with as many lefties as he can find hanging around. I predict a continuing rise in runs scored for the Mariners this series interspersed with getting frustratingly shut down by mediocre pitching. 

Brad Bergensen throws strikes and doesn't miss many bats, relying on limiting walks and getting ground balls to succeed which is exactly two more skills than Ian Snell has shown us thus far. He faces off against Doug Fister who throws strikes and doesn't miss many bats, relying on limiting walks and... no, nothing else. Learn an out pitch, Doug.

Vargas looks to reproduce his last start, this time opposed by David Hernandez who is interesting in that his fastball is his primary out pitch. He gets his strikeouts off the fastball and even throws it for strikes. He manages to do that because it's got good speed on it and he throws it up in the zone. Like way up in the zone. Other than his fastball he has nothing. David Aardsma looks at David Hernandez and decides that no, he's fine sticking with closing rather than starting.

Kevin Millwood used to be good then he wasn't and whatever, Felix! The Orioles are without Brian Roberts but can still muster up Matt Wieters, Luke Scott and Nick Markakis as power bats from the left side but then again David Trembley has used 13 different lineups so far in 2010 so it might be difficult to predict anything. 

Doug Fister Jason Vargas Felix Hernandez
Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 52% 88 25 50 30
Change 27% 81 40 80 60
Curve 11% 75 55 35 80
Slider 6% 82 45 80 30
Sinker 5% 89 35 40 60
Overall -- -- 35 65 45

Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 60% 88 35 30 35
Change 19% 80 80 75 35
Sinker 10% 84 70 40 30
Slider 8% 82 20 25 50
Overall -- -- 45 45 35

Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 68% 94 75 60 80
Slider 13% 88 75 65 75
Curve 11% 83 55 40 65
Change 8% 87 65 75 80
Overall -- -- 60 60 70


Brad Bergensen David Hernandez Kevin Millwood
Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 42% 89 25 80 55
Slider 23% 81 40 50 80
Sinker 19% 89 30 65 55
Change 13% 84 30 50 65
Overall -- -- 40 70 65

Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 64% 93 75 65 20
Change 13% 84 40 30 35
Curve 13% 79 55 30 30
Slider 9% 79 20 20 60
Overall -- -- 50 45 25

Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 62% 91 55 65 55
Slider 14% 85 30 70 50
Curve 10% 73 70 50 50
Sinker 8% 89 30 30 50
Change 7% 84 35 45 75
Overall -- -- 40 55 50

0 recs  |  42 comments

Comments

We have the obvious advantage and this would be the as good a time as any for a series sweep.

So why am I still so nervous about it?

Because we're throwing two not-good pitchers and are hoping they miraculously both duplicate the results of their last starts
I hate that feeling
Luckily Bergesen has been absolutely terrible so far

Which means he is going to dominate us.

It's not really an obvious advantage, considering our only technical edge is in fielding.
I hope the mistakes that we commited last game don't carry over
That's the great thing about the last game

it’s over.

Of course the bad thing about the Mariners is that we keep on running into stupid outs on the basepaths

When you have a team OBP of .295, you can’t make stupid mistakes on the bases like we have been

Turns out you can!

Quite frequently, in fact.

*you can't afford to make stupid mistakes
Also, holy God, Houston has a .245 team OBP
On the other hand, they're running a 10% BB rate

while for the last four years they’ve ranged from 6.3-6.7%. So, The OBP might be on its way to .340-.350 territory pretty soon.

True, since I doubt even we can hit .223 for an entire season
Also, I may be looking at the wrong numbers, but isn't our OBP .321?
Oh I see that was wOBA you were quoting
According to ESPN's team stats, we are running a .295 OBP

but their data might be old, I just checked there because I was already on the site

Looks like ESPN is through the first nine games

they have the Ms at 291 AB, while Fangraphs is 417. Fascinating!

You would think the worldwide leader could be bothered with updating their stat tables on a more regular basis

don’t they have tech monkeys for this kind of work?

Yes, they do!
So are they really monkeys then?
It was the best of times, it was the blurst of times...
The thing that has been carrying over, ever since last year (at least according to what they've been telling the media)

Is Wak’s policy of letting the players often decide when to steal, bunt, or be aggressive in trying to take an extra base on their own. And I think it’s pretty obvious now that this isn’t working, the players are repeatedly doing things that make absolutely no sense, and if I had to guess as to why it’s because they have spent most of their careers having these decisions made for them. They just don’t seem to have a good grasp general game theory as well as the coaches do (or should) and it’s been hurting us pretty bad. I think it’s time to put these decisions back in the hands of the coaching staff, it was a nice idea but it seems to be hurting more than it’s helping.

Here's to taking at least 2 out of 3 here.

A sweep would be nice if everything continues to go wrong for Baltimore. Now would be a great time to tighten up that baserunning strategy.

I think I might be crazy.

I just went to the Ms game yesterday, and I just spent 5 minutes talking myself down from braving the rain to go watch a Doug Fister start on a Monday night.

It's not raining.

Also, how is that different from last season? You must have gone to 20 or 30 games last year.

It's fister against a bad lineup again

Potential hilarity, potential disaster. And yeah, I hope it doesn’t rain tonight, but the forecast looks like 80% chance…

Asterisk

Sorry if it’s been asked to death, but what does the asterisk by the player mean? I’ve been reading these for over a year now and still can’t figure it out. My best guess is that the pitcher is the worse of the matchup? I’ll even take a mocking comment and a link, but it’s been driving me crazy.

He's left-handed
Wow

That’s blindingly obvious. Thanks for not mocking me, though I’m pretty sure I deserved it.

You shouldn't feel too bad about things like that.

Often the most obvious answer is the one we can’t see.

I predict four dingers this series
That sounds about right
How many is Griffdog hitting?
For which team?
Jack Wilson will hit four.
Four hits for Wilson in a 3-game series is a little optimistic.
How many are going to be hit by either Griffey or Sweeney?
Yep, they let Oakland kill them

Which seems typical for Oakland. Over the past decade it seems like they almost always have luck on their side, which means Baltimore will come alive.

I really want to see Gutierrez rob an Adam Jones homerun.

Is this before or after Guti hits a homerun that falls out of Jones' glove?

The game winner too.

You mean the one where Jones runs into the wall, drops the ball, and gets injured and requires season-ending surgery?
I have a bad feeling about this series.
I want a sweep so badly, it would feel so right.

But, yeah, not overly confident at all about that.

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