Biggest Contribution: Jason Vargas, +38.4%
Biggest Suckfest: Jose Lopez, -13.8%
Most Important AB: Bradley single, +10.1%
Most Important Pitch: Reimold doubles, -11.3%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): +52.7%
Total Contribution by Lineup: -10.8%
Total Contribution by Opposition: +8.1%
(What is this chart?)
3 recs | 112 comments
Feels good to be a M's fan right about now
Punkhazard - April 20, 2010
Well that's got to be one of the most linear WE charts I've ever seen.
I wonder what the r squared value would be on a straight line spanning the game from 0.5 WE to 1 WE. I guess one benefit of playing the Orioles is that your odds of winning can increase predictably as a function of game duration.
FlaskInSafeco - April 20, 2010
Vargas!
Jackle Mackle - April 20, 2010
Dead birds that have their landing gear up always weird me out
tootthekazoo - April 20, 2010
That bird would have been better of
if it had stayed away from Milton Bradley.
ErictheRed - April 20, 2010
Mother Nature's lawn darts...
Judging by the backdrop, she missed.
Sidi - April 20, 2010
That you noticed and it weirds you out kind of weirds me out
Kermit. - April 20, 2010
It feels weird to stare at it
but it looks like a toy because of that.
Two Rs and Two Ls - April 20, 2010
Sometimes I have to be reminded that orioles are actual birds with the same color scheme as the baseball team
That one looks like it was taken right off the hat and killed.
Gihyou - April 20, 2010
You mean they're not chocolate sandwich cookies?
harkening - April 20, 2010
No, those are Hydroxes.
RunningFool - April 20, 2010
One of the most boring games I recall. Glad we avoiding losing.
Jose Lopez needs a day off
Rudy4three - April 20, 2010
Jose Lopez needs a change of scenery.
harkening - April 20, 2010
Yeah, but that probably won't occur until next season
Rudy4three - April 20, 2010
Good chance to get Tui some at bats
and shuffle the order. Get Kotchman, Bradley futher up. Do it Wak!
appleshampoo - April 20, 2010
Aw, poor little feller
Aaron Campeau - April 20, 2010
I know :(
Jeff Sullivan - April 20, 2010
I didn't want to put up a giant picture of Jason the lesbian Vargas
Jeff Sullivan - April 20, 2010
Is that a running joke, or you just came up with that?
Either way, it’s really on point
Rudy4three - April 20, 2010
WHAT
Dewey N - April 20, 2010
So this is how it happens
Dewey N - April 20, 2010
No no I want to see where this is going
Kermit. - April 20, 2010
Hell yeah
Jeff Sullivan - April 20, 2010
What happened to the Polio meme?
ErictheRed - April 20, 2010
Jeff just came up with it
Dewey N - April 20, 2010
Vargas has been previously identified as looking kinda lesbianic
lemonverbena - April 20, 2010
Vargas is the ugliest lesbian I've ever seen.
He’s mafia, from Italy, not lesbian from Lesbos.
TrustBaseball - April 20, 2010
I'm sad the Capone nickname I coined in his Mariner debut last year didn't stick :(
Decatur - April 21, 2010
I agree, Fogel had absolutely no part in this
OlSalty - April 20, 2010
It's really surprising it went this long without getting noticed
Jeff Sullivan - April 20, 2010
To me he looks like the most annoying kid in 3rd grade
…or yeah…a giant lesbian.
short - April 20, 2010
Usually I notice things like this
Dewey N - April 21, 2010
Well I'll be
Jeff Sullivan - April 21, 2010
I don't understand this response
Dewey N - April 21, 2010
Well I'll be
Jeff Sullivan - April 21, 2010
No you won't
Dewey N - April 21, 2010
Aw
Jeff Sullivan - April 21, 2010
I'm just kidding baby
You can be whatever you like
Dewey N - April 21, 2010
I think I'm going to make one of those half-one player half-another player pictures
and make it half-Vargas half-Cha Seung Baek. I expect that you guys will want to see it.
Coach Owens - April 20, 2010
NO YOU CAN'T
Dewey N - April 20, 2010
You must never repeat that
Some things must be preserved as they were and never touched again for posterity.
OlSalty - April 20, 2010
Truth
Jeff Sullivan - April 20, 2010
This makes me a sad panda.
Coach Owens - April 20, 2010
Weird that a half-Vargas, half-Cha Seung Baek photo
would come out like this.
ErictheRed - April 20, 2010
Or a 100% Pablo Sandoval photo
OlSalty - April 20, 2010
Your first was too well done to repeat
Jeff Sullivan - April 20, 2010
Now I see it.
ErictheRed - April 20, 2010
Maybe I'm wrong, wait, that's not him.
TrustBaseball - April 20, 2010
Ew
royalcurve - April 20, 2010
Mariners!
Poochie - April 20, 2010
News on Bradley?
EequalsMc2 - April 20, 2010
Doesn't sound too serious
But they are being cautious
jtopps - April 20, 2010
Nothing serious. Will sit out tomorrow's game.
ThundaPC - April 20, 2010
Is it possible to make a running average of the total contribution from pitchers,
lineup and opposition. Or maybe a running sum, it would be interesting to actually see how much of our wins is actually coming from the mariners and not us getting lucky. It seems that we have been getting lucky a lot.
themanleyman - April 20, 2010
It wouldn't really be useful, as we'd have nothing to compare it to.
Mariner John - April 21, 2010
Since Vargas is clearly the reincarnation of Al Capone, is it too close to chat speak to say Capowned?
JAH - April 20, 2010
Say CaPWND! and you're instantly banned.
harkening - April 20, 2010
Banned
CMC_Stags - April 20, 2010
Well that's unfortunate.
harkening - April 20, 2010
There is a sidebar gif of PotatOWNED.
You might want to make some sort of image to go along with Capowned.
Wilder. - April 20, 2010
The Internet already provides.
Which is good, because my photoshop skills are weak sauce. If they were up to snuff, I’d try to either put Vargas’ face on that or maybe put a fedora and cigar on a Vargas picture.
JAH - April 21, 2010
I for one would love to see Vargas with a fedora and a cigar.
Hopefulmsfan - April 21, 2010
I could never use that picture
He looks far too much like Jay Mariotti.
Kouvre - April 21, 2010
So with Bradley sort of re-hurting himself again today
Do you ever get tired of being right all the time?
OlSalty - April 20, 2010
Yes
Jeff Sullivan - April 20, 2010
Technically he came out after running to 1B so it might not have been because he was playing in the field right?
Edgar for Pres - April 20, 2010
I'm sure playing the field was culpable at least to some degree
Jeff Sullivan - April 20, 2010
Yeah probably. I just don't want you feeling too omniscient
Edgar for Pres - April 20, 2010
Only about the bad things.
Matthew - April 20, 2010
Jack Wilson is out slugging both Lopez and Griffey...by a lot.
Yikes. Our 4 & 5 hitters everybody!
SethGrandpa - April 20, 2010
I want to brand those stats into the foreheads of 85% of the posters on Baker's blog.
JAH - April 20, 2010
I think Wak's lineup card needs some help.
TrustBaseball - April 20, 2010
I think Wak's game management needs some help.
We get it; he’s great with the players, a real “people person” in the clubhouse. But man, between the bullpen, attaching Sweeney to the opening day roster and that lineup…it’s just not pretty. I don’t dislike Wak. He’s not terrible. He’s just not necessarily “good” either.
harkening - April 20, 2010
We don't know that Sweeney was his decision.
Z could have been involved in that one.
zeeehjee - April 20, 2010
I'd say his bullpen usage has been adequate lately.
It seems like he, like the players, needs a week or so to get back into the whole game-management thing.
Hopefulmsfan - April 20, 2010
Wow, Lopez.
That OPS of .530 and -0.2 WAR this year are really …. are really …. ugh.
ErictheRed - April 20, 2010
Neither are
Bradley’s, Wilson’s, Moore’s, or Griffey’s negative WAR. He’ll be fine… hopefully
Trenchtown - April 20, 2010
Jose Lopez was at -0.6 WAR in the first two months last season and finished at 2.6 WAR.
Janic - April 20, 2010
You're not including defense
He’s positive when you add in DRS (which you might want to add in until UZR comes online).
CMC_Stags - April 20, 2010
I believe Lopi's in the lead for biggest season suckfest?
DrunkAmerican - April 20, 2010
His defense was pretty good tonight.
TrustBaseball - April 20, 2010
He has looked like an above-average 3B so far
Which is both frightening and confusing but cool.
He’ll hit eventually. Maybe we are too hard on him.
OlSalty - April 20, 2010
Above average at defense*
OlSalty - April 20, 2010
That barehanded play in the third (?) was nice to see.
He’s been short hopping a lot of throws but hey, it’s a new angle, distance and all.
Kermit. - April 20, 2010
Yeah I was more worried about his ability to have enough range and quickness to get balls
and he’s definitely I think shown this so far. It also looks like he has a strong enough arm. The accuracy I think will probably come with time.
Edgar for Pres - April 20, 2010
I'm going to agree here, at least for now.
He got an error on a bad throw to first that was a bad throw to first. It reminded me of some bad throws last year (almost lazy throws). But I willing to give him the benefit of the doubt through April. I don’t want to see that crap in May.
TrustBaseball - April 20, 2010
I wasn't too worried about that throw
He stood a good chance of not even getting to that ball, and it would have been a single anyway. Better a short hop than air mailing it I guess.
appleshampoo - April 20, 2010
Do any of the defensive metrics track difficult stops, like that one by Kotchman?
Or the one a bit later, where Lopez handcuffed him? That was tough, but Kotch keeping his head down on it and slowing it down, keeping the runner at first. I wonder how those get scored
Kermit. - April 20, 2010
Fangraphs keeps track of 'scoops'
but that’s the closest we get, to the best of my knowledge.
Jeff Sullivan - April 21, 2010
So far this year, he leads MLB in Defensive Runs Saved
According to Fangraphs DRS (based on +/- methodology).
He’s at 6 runs saved, tops of any position player in MLB. Next best is +4.
CMC_Stags - April 20, 2010
Woah, Jose Lopez is tops in the league?
Kirk - April 20, 2010
He looks like a whale when he dives.
DrunkAmerican - April 20, 2010
Go have another drink
CMC_Stags - April 20, 2010
Ugh.
DrunkAmerican - April 20, 2010
Sorry
CMC_Stags - April 21, 2010
I think it's settled, Lopez is close to being in the lead.
Perhaps we’ll have to look at our DH’s and a certain catcher. In any case, I don’t believe he’s in the right place in the line-up.
TrustBaseball - April 20, 2010
^isn't^
TrustBaseball - April 20, 2010
Yes, His WPA right now for the season is minus a win
Trenchtown - April 20, 2010
Citation? Based on Fangraphs, he's at -0.46 before today's game.
Which would still make him an above average player when considering his defensive position and runs saved this year.
CMC_Stags - April 20, 2010
Same stuff you're using sir
WPA != WAR. WPA doesn’t account for defense, it credits the pitcher instead. .5 WPA is a win, adding Lopez’s performance last night he’s down to -.61 WPA which is minus ~1.1 wins. WPA is more a fun stat rather than a good measure of overall value, it’s nice because it captures leverage for hitting and “pitching,” but woefully lacking because it doesn’t include defense and because results based analysis is not a particularly good way of measuring ability or value. Nevertheless, WPA still measures Lopez as being down more than a win
Trenchtown - April 21, 2010
WPA = offensive contribution to the game state
You don’t double it to get to their wins contributed from offense.
For example, look at the 2009 Win Probability leaderboard on Fangraphs. The correlation between WPA and REW (Wins Above Average based on the 24 Base/Out States) is .899541. We wouldn’t double his REW to find wins contributed, so why would we double WPA?
To your point, WPA is laking the adjustments for a great many things that affect the final outcome of the game.
But you’re still incorrect in saying that “WPA still measures Lopez as being down more than a win.” Based on Fangraphs, he is currently at
0.61 WPA for the year, that’s less than a win. He’s also at 6 runs saved defensively based on +/or plus 3.1 runs based on UZR. Once you factor in the positional adjustment, he’s been basically league average so far this year.CMC_Stags - April 21, 2010
Who the fuck recs a picture of a dead bird.
Robert - April 20, 2010
Arthropods?
Hopefulmsfan - April 21, 2010
Catjeff
OlSalty - April 21, 2010
You rang?
Dewey N - April 21, 2010
I would rec this if I didn't know that the mods could track those things and retroactively ban me
seattlebruin - April 21, 2010
It's an LoL cat!
Dewey N - April 21, 2010
Writing it this way teaches me something about how you pronounce LoL
Jeff Sullivan - April 21, 2010
I figured this way was less likely to be hidden
I go both ways
Dewey N - April 21, 2010
I can't believe it worked
Jeff Sullivan - April 21, 2010
I am pretty unbelievable
Dewey N - April 21, 2010
In the bottom of the 8th Buhner went into a little discussion
about how he went about hitting. He said he sat on a lot of pitches and watched for a lot of fastballs. Reminded me of a discussion Morgan Ensberg just had with some saber guy (don’t remember where I read this). Just thought it was interesting.
Edgar for Pres - April 20, 2010
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