Don Wakamatsu circa 1998
Yeah, High Desert is a home run haven. We knew that. It's not just the home runs though; or more accurately the friendliness to home runs impacts far more than just the home run factor. This is just theorizing, but seeing a low strikeout and a high walk factor leads me to think that pitchers are working around hitters a lot more in High Desert.
Furthermore, it's not just the home runs, but hits of all kinds are promoted and encouraged from either side of the plate. All of which leads to a massive boon for batters' wOBAs. The average wOBA factor of 114 marks High Desert as the second most hitter-friendly ballpark in my entire 150-park sample. Only Albuquerque in the PCL ranks higher with a combined 119 wOBA factor. That's so high that it would make Giancarlo Alvarado's 2009 season actually impressive if he weren't 31 at the time and now pitching in Japan.
| Factor | LH | RH |
|---|---|---|
| K | 96 | 96 |
| BB | 107 | 106 |
| HBP | 86 | 92 |
| GB | 103 | 97 |
| FB | 98 | 103 |
| LD | 101 | 111 |
| IF | 94 | 95 |
| 1B | 102 | 116 |
| 2B | 110 | 117 |
| 3B | 121 | 127 |
| HR/BIA | 150 | 148 |
| wOBA | 111 | 117 |
K, BB, HBP, GB, FB, LD and IF are all factored on a per PA basis since they are all discrete possible results of a PA. 1B, 2B and 3B are factored on a per batted ball basis. HR is factored by balls in the air (i.e. non-ground-ball batted balls). wOBA is based on what the league average line would have looked like given the above factors. A rough guide to 95% confidence intervals for these is given here.
1 recs | 8 comments
Where's my daily allusion to ancient history?
chinn - April 29, 2010
This comment is needier than Euboea of rain in the lead-up to the Lelantine War
Jeff Sullivan - April 29, 2010
I think I just pooed my pants.
chinn - April 30, 2010
Ok, 'High Desert' is reminiscent of Roman campaigns in Mesopotamia against the Parthian empire.
Certain parts of Mesopotamia, particularly the north, seemed easier for the Roman legions – from Nisibis to the capital Ctesiphon, the Romans won major battles fairly easily.
In other parts of the empire, the the Romans had a harder time hitting home runs – the southern city of Hatra wasn’t successfully captured by either Trajan OR Septimius Severus.
Hatra = Inland Empire, with a siege factor of about 86; Nisibis = High Desert with a siege factor of 125. Ctesiphon is physically larger, but the weather conditions give it a siege factor of 115 or so, so it’s basically Lancaster.
marc w - April 29, 2010
Any reason why right-handers should have a markedly higher line drive factor than left-handers?
Other than a statistical anomaly? I was trying to think of a reason why the park environment would impact line drive rates, but I can’t think of any.
There is the possible bias involved with the placement of the stringers, say off to one side of the field, giving them a different view. Still, you would think that would only have an effect if batters tended to hit line drives predominantly to one side of the field, and it seems like line drives are sprayed around almost evenly by both lefties and righties.
nathaniel dawson - April 29, 2010
If breaking balls move less you'd see more liners
You’d also see more liners from the right side since more righties see curves/sliders than lefties.
Graham MacAree - April 29, 2010
Interesting thought
And in a hot, elevated environment such as High Desert, you would expect pitches to break less. Not sure what that might say about West Tennessee, as it had quite a pronounced split in the opposite direction.
And of course, there’s the ever-present specter of random occurence that has it’s hand in the mix, stirring things up for us.
nathaniel dawson - April 29, 2010
Reply fail, natch
nathaniel dawson - April 29, 2010
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