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Lookout Landing

1-1, Chart

4_6wec_medium

Biggest Contribution: Ian Snell, +25.0%
Biggest Suckfest: Kanekoa Texeira, -21.6%
Most Important AB: Bradley fly out, -8.0%; Gutierrez single, +8.0% (wild pitch: +9.7%)
Most Important Pitch: Ellis single, -38.3%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): +31.7%
Total Contribution by Lineup: -91.9%
Total Contribution by Opposition: +10.2%
(What is this chart?)

0 recs  |  212 comments

Comments

i think biggest suckfest on tex is unfair

Maybe bradley was more deserving there, tex got out of the bot 9 jam and was looking good in the 10th before you know what happened…

Those are calculated by WPA.

Not some arbitrary number Jeff decides to give a player.

i get that totally, i just dont agree with the system.

maybe if milton had more patience and less hostility….

The system is based on years and years and years of data.
And is a good way to dole out who was the best and worst

It beats the hell out of arbitrarily picking them by looks. The system tells you who screwed up or did well and, more importantly, when they did it and what it cost the team.

ok so maybe i'm just blind as to what tex did wrong then???

i dont care how many years of data you build, tex got us out of the bottom of the 9th and he was ahead on the 0-2 count and pitch low and out of the zone trying to a) get the K swinging or b) induce the groundball, both of which are the right thing to do. some one aid me in my confusion please.

It's not about what he tried to do

but about what he did.

He was on the mound when shitty things happened.

Don’t read too much into it.

Fangraphs uses some different calculations

But here’s an explanation of WE

The link at the bottom of the chart is also very helpful
Follow the hotlink embedded in the chart "What's this chart?" in blue up there.

Nice tidy explanation all ready to go.

Please capitalize.
Texeria can do no wrong.

rawr

He has an above average BB%
I wouldn't really pin it on Bradley either...

WPA sometimes doesn’t really give you the villain.

The whole lineup works here, too
Very true...

How about…“The team lost.”

-91.9% on the lineup. Guh.
Seems about right.
you mean 10 k's by the starter doesnt equal good stats for our line up??? thats bushly.
Please capitalise. Thanks
Not wild about the bullpen management!
I'm a little steamed.
If Wak is fired I will feel better about myself
Texieria wasn't bad, but what's the point in stockpiling power arms if you go to your 5th best reliever in a tie game in the ninth?
Reason why I hate the six man pen especially with this current staff (minus Lee).

The manager has to stick with guys longer than normal. If he brings in League in the 10th to put out the fire, he’s got nearly nobody left.

I would recommend in the future, not using Kelley and Texeira in the same game, especially before you use all your other guys.

Biggest suckfest: Wakamatsu

What the fuck is up with his use of the bullpen?

n/s

I though the bullpen was used fine tonight, might have let Kelley go two innings, but I don’t have a big issue with it outside of that.

You don't put pitchers in the game just to get them work. You leverage your pitchers to improve your odds of winning.

Wak is operating with the first paradigm.

They were trying to "stretch out" Kelley in spring training to throw 3 innings as needed, and Mark Lowe is supposed to be able to go 2 innings-ish. After using three pitchers last night, Wak left himself with only one reliever who was "fresh" (Tex).

The idea that these early games are your chance to "get work in" has to go. Texeira wasn’t bad, but he was essentially thrown to the dogs. I’m sure League could have thrown some more pitches after last night, and DA is nominally an everyday closer–but in a tie ball game, high leverage situation, Wak had no idea if he was staring at a 9-inning game or a 15-inning game. If it goes 15, what then? I mean, honestly: what then?

If Kelley and Lowe go two innings tonight, then you don't have them tomorrow.

So Texeira likely would of had to pitch tomorrow anyways, plus he looked good. The bullpen is good, so outside of White I really don’t have a problem with any of these guys in a high leverage situation.

"would of?"

I’ve never understood where this comes from. It makes as much sense as typing “wood oeuvres.”

The contraction would've sounds similar to would of
Sure, but...

It simply doesn’t make sense to type “would of.” The words, put together like that, are senseless. I get why a lot of grammar mistakes happen, but that one has always eluded me.

I always thought it was an error. People writing "would of" instead of "would have".
The thing is that if you end up going more than ten innings, who is going to pitch? Vargas?
He barely did anything wrong tonight

Only questionable call was yanking Kelley after one.

That's where we disagree.

See above post. I’m not saying the result would have been different, but I’m process-oriented.

I think Jeff is process oriented as well.

I think he’s saying Wak barely did anything wrong.

Yeah, I didn't understand only using Kelley for one. You only have two relievers capable of giving

multiple innings and you pull one guy after he pitches one, and you bring the other guy in shortly after. You are putting yourself in a tough spot where you can’t pull Texeira if he doesn’t have it because you may run out of relievers pretty quickley if you do.

Not saying Texeira pitched all that poorly tonight, but by bringing your last long man in so early

you have to stay committed to him longer than you might like

As useless as the 7th man in the pen usually is, it’s comforting for a manager to know he has some dude like Garrett Olson who can mop up 4-5 innings if need be. I think it allows a manager some freedom in his bullpen changes

Exactly!

Especially since Kanekoa has never seen anything ahead of AA ball. He’s good; he’s got talent. He’ll probably be a useful tool out of the bullpen this year. But I don’t like the use of him here.

I don't have much issue with the way he actually pitched, but if we

had a mop up guy in there, or if he hadn’t just burnt Kelley by using him one inning, then maybe he goes to League to get Ellis with two on and two out.

I don’t know, I just think you limit your freedom when you carry only six relievers and use both your long men so early in the game

You limit your freedom when your 'long man' can only go 1 inning...

If Kelley is going to be that guy then you have to be able to trust him to go more than 18 pitches in a tie game.

I have a problem with going to Texieria in that situation over Aardsma
Or over League.
With no offdays for the forseeable future I can understand not wanting to burn through both of them unless it was an emergency
Hence the "or" instead of "and."

If you had gone to League, you still have Aardsma. If you go to Aardsma, you still have League. I’m not suggesting use both of them. I’m saying, in that situation, why put in Tex when one or the other is available?

Well Aardsma was warming up

If you warm him up in a tie game, use him

Ah! I did not catch that Aardsma was up.

This makes all the difference.

Well if that is how our #4 pitcher is going to pitch, then I am looking forward to our rotation at full strength!
Can someone explain the "?

I just got home and am trying to figure out what happened

The what?
That was supposed to say the "

it’s on the graph at Braden’s feet.

"pointless"

SBN hates me

I think it's pointing at the design on his shoe

That’s covered up by his pant leg 95% of the time.

Braden can't feel his left foot because of nerve damage from a biopsy
Question mark

Denotes an interrogatory statement

I hate not having a backup infielder
You guys can have Patterson

(first post on LL, I’m normally on AN)

What's Tui?

(Okay, only slightly better than chopped liver, but he is there!)

Well, at least Snell was good.
Sort of.
It's all relative to expectations.
I love Ian Snell!
Then why don't you just marry him
Shawty's got some fine competition nawmsayin
I can't stand him
I'm with you on this.
I am indifferent
I agree
Oh just marry him already
Is there another synonym for indifferent?
Texeira would probably know.
Disinterested
I leaning towards this one.
Apathetic?

But what do you know, they have tools for that on this thing called the Internet. Like this one.

much agreed, Snell held his own well only allowing 1 run.

Can’t complain with that much.

Where was the patience tonight?

Was Braden that deceptive? There were way too many swings on balls out of the strike zone. Since we don’t have a lot of power we’ve got to wait for the pitches that can be hit for something.

he must have been, 10k's hurt us bad... i mean i expect K's from Bradley and Byrnes but he had everyone fooled.
I suppose you're right about the pitching. He was better than I've ever seen him.

Please capitalize where appropriate. They’re going to get mad at you. Play by the rules.

Bradley has swung-and-missed a lot so far

but I get the sense that when he makes contact with the ball, it’s gonna fly with Angry Man Power.

Are we talking about the same Bradley?

I’m pretty sure the Milton Bradley the M’s picked up is not a power guy… I see angry man pop up in the infield…Where’s Mike Sweeney?? We got 3 DH’s, so why not bat the one who showed off the most in spring training?

In this lineup, Bradley's a power guy.
Eh, Mike Sweeney hasn't been a good hitter for a long time.
Because Spring Training doesn't mean a whole lot.
To elaborate

Funky ballparks, funky weather, and substandard competition make spring training stats somewhat meaningless.

Along with players trying new things, working out the rust and no need to win.
Also a good point.

A hitter might run into a pitcher that’s working on a certain pitch or hitting a location and that’s their primary focus.

This is about the 3rd time I've been late right on your heels.
Hang in there, champ!
Fewer words would be a good start.
Pitcher try pitch. See.
Work good Kimosabe!
Kind of neat they put in pitch f/x in a couple parks down there.

I’ve always wondered if they ever tell a pitcher to throw 20% changeups or something, and forget the results. Kind of cool to be able to get a better look at what they’re doing.

Granted...but when Bradley has proven in 2 straight games he has no patience...maybe Mike deserves a shot...
Um, sample size.
Two games.

Bradley is one of the more patient hitters in baseball.

2 games is not that many games
Two games is a pretty small window to play with.

Over the last few seasons Bradley has shown he’s a significantly better hitter than Sweeney.

Also bear in mind that two games is an extremely small sample size to judge a player in.

Bradley will hit, just give him a chance.

Why so many devils advocates here??? Milton has potential....But so does Mike, I'm just saying, we're carrying 3 DH's use them.
Mike Sweeney is old and hasn't been good in several years.
Mike has potential to be a replacement level bat, maybe.

Bradley has the potential to be above league average.

I think based on a larger set of data most of us prefer Bradley getting at bats over Sweeney.

When was Sweeney’s last legitimately good season? 2005?

"Devil's advocate" implies that we don't believe what we're saying

but rather that we’re saying it only for the sake or argument. I can’t speak for anyone else but I actually believe that Bradley is a better hitter than Sweeney.

Satan's Co-Pilot, maybe?
I'm with you. Bradley > Sweeney
The thing is, even last year when Bradley had a down year, he was still an above average bat

Before that, he was much much better. Mike Sweeney hasn’t really been an above average bat since 2005.

But what about the chemistry, intangibles....
I carry my corporate credit card everywhere I go just in case of emergency

I have it, so why not use it more?!

Think about this:

That’s only two games of data right there—hardly enough on which to base predictions.

See Bradley's previous 3 seasons then...
They're pretty good actually.

Sweeney’s, on the other hand, aren’t.

You mean like the one where he lead the AL in OBP?
led*

Sorry, this misspelling gets me every time.

It's a typo.

And not to be a jerk but it’s generally only called for to correct errors such as these when they’re a pattern.

Previous three seasons BB%: 12.7, 15.7, 14.0

League average in those three seasons: 8.5, 8.7, 8.9

Bradley hit .293/.407/.495 over the past three years.
He ran an above average wOBA last year

In 2008 he was at .423 and 2007 was at .405. I’ll take those years.

He had two walks yesterday
I understand I made the TV tonight?
You are correct sir.

Coming back from, I believe, the 3rd inning, they showed you for about 20 seconds.

Which sign made it on air?
Where were you?

I was there tonight too!!

Behind home plate, slightly on the third base side, about 27 rows up.
Yup!

It was the “A Great Day Deserves a Great Hat” sign that made it on TV.

Even though we lost

I’m just glad there’s actually something to fucking talk about.

Rec'd for truth.
I hate fucking Kurt Suzuki

And I swear to fucking god, it’s like three out of every five times I go to a game in Oakland they win with a walk off.

Not like “Celebration” was ever a good song, but I’m sure Kool & The Gang make a killing off the royalties.

There are a lot of things one could do with this comment
Like perhaps fuck it
So who's going to be the first one to do it?
Who do you enjoy fucking, then?
An angry Milton Bradley

So much passion.

I don't mind fucking him,

but he always gets too damn cuddly and emotional afterwards.

It makes me uncomfortable.
Wow, you get really girly after, huh?
If not wanting to cuddle with a man after having gay sex with him means I'm girly, then yes, I'm girly.

But really, I don’t think it means I’m girly. I think it just means I have to be alone with my shame.

No, no, no:

It’s a line from Arrested Development.

I fully support your shame-ridden groping against the cold, hard night after engaging in love, Greek-style. Whatever gets you off, man. Gotta get in where you fit in.

On the plus side, Mark Lowe's slider is filthy.
Agreed. I could have watched more of that.
Hmmm.

Haven’t heard any enthusiasm for RRS yet.

We sure did our best
And our best was not good enough
I think we were just unlucky
The moral is to never try.
Does that mean Coach is taking us out for post game ice cream?
Take us down to the rock quarry maybe

and hide the evidence.

Will we get ice cream after that?
Jeff's premonition coming true?


Meaning the 3rd year in a row we lose the 2nd game by a walkoff.

Ugh, there was supposed to be a link to the faux-future season he wrote a week ago.
Gotta put some words right before the ending tag in the coding

Otherwise your link has to text to click on. I learned that the hard way a few minutes ago.

And Kurt Suzuki was supposed to win it with a walkoff homer right?

Close enough

Here you go guy:

If It Goes Wrong

Thanks.

Sadly not the first time I’ve been taught this. New season, time to relearn it all again.

It's called "Preview."
You bastards ruined it and now without the Good Ending to accompany it we are doomed us to a miserable season.
I know you guys are licking your wounds, at least hoping that Snell's got it this year.

I’m sorry, but tonight was not testament to that. Our lineup is pathetic, but you guys already knew that. Suzuki may have hit the only home run you’ll see from us this series.

My question is: was Dallas Braden’s performance as impressive as it seemed? He looked focused and dealing. Your lineup looks…pretty formidable, actually. And Braden really seemed to breeze through it, no offense.

I’m not here to rub it in—that is not what I’m doing here at all—I’m just trying to gain some perspective that’s not completely homer-ish. Plus…I kinda like LL, when, you know, you’re not hating on the A’s.

Dallas Braden definitely had the M's hitters fooled

primarily with pitches down and away. I’d have to check the stats but he got a lot of swinging strikes going down and away to hitters tonight. Didn’t look that lethal but they had no read on him at all (or on the relievers for that matter)

He's a wily one.

Ol’ Eight Toes.

By the way, I know you guys aren’t in the market to fall in love with A’s players, but if there’s one to fall in love with, it’s Braden.

I'm rather fond of Kurt Suzuki, myself.

But Daric Barton is infinitely infuriating. The guy swings at NOTHING.

We call him Staplehead, you know.
Greetings!

From what I saw, it was a combination of Braden pitching decently and us just having zero patience, which is strange, coming off a night where we took eight walks.

From all accounts,

it was a miserable night in Oakland Monday night—cold and kind of damp, I’m sure. I know King Felix has better control than that (Sheets, we’ll see)—they both appeared to struggle with command last night. I’m guessing that beyond opening night jitters, weather was a factor.

Tim Tschida (home plate ump) probably had

something to do with the pitchers appearing to be struggling with command. His strike zone was laughably small.

Yeah, he and all of them had an off night last night.

I think we can all agree on that.

Oh, definitely.

Hopefully we get a Sheets v. Felix matchup later in the year where they’re both on top of their game. And what RunningFool said.

It was pretty great

Honestly, that’s not a bad lineup against a lefty. He threw 66% strikes and his changeup especially was incredible. He was driving hitters into 0-2 counts constantly.

Change was unhittable

Granted, he was facing a fairly low-contact lineup outside of Ichiro/Figgins/Loafie, but bleh. A good LH changeup can make a joke out of a lefty-mashing team sometimes.

Kotchman and Chavez... long lost twins?

They have the exact same nose
I'm looking, but I'm not really seeing it.

But if Chavez grew his mustache out a bit and narrowed his goatee…

All white people look the same anyway.
My God, it's taken me over an hour of intense reading to catch up on tonight's comments.

LL posters are gonna start dropping dead from exhaustion soon if things don’t ease up.

It's like this every year during the first week or so.

Like Robert said earlier, game threads start to hit their stride around Juneish and they start to slow down a little bit towards the end of April.

THEY FUCKING BETTER
So I missed the middle part of this game, and judging from the Eric Byrnes comments, it's a good thing.

Also, the gamethread kinda sucked. Be better newbie commenters(except the ones that didn’t suck, good job).

Considering game 2 of 2009 nearly killed me, I am pleased that I missed out on game 2 of 2010.

6am walk offs are not pretty…

Braden's changeup is moyer-esque

Didn’t he throw a screwball ala Norm Charleton, i cant imagine that being good for a pitchers arm long term

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