Brandon Morrow lasted 1.2 innings against the Red Sox this afternoon, and threw 67 pitches. 32 of them were strikes. He walked five Sox in the second inning and went 3-1 on David Ortiz before allowing a line drive single that knocked him from the game.
Morrow on the year:
7 starts
35 innings
29 BB + HBP
46 K
4 HR
71.9% contact
Among guys with at least 20 innings pitched, Morrow's contact rate ranks third-best in the league. And he's still running an FIP in the mid-4's, because he has all the location of a dart in a hurricane.
Strikeouts are great. Sexy, even. There's not a Mariners fan in the world that doesn't miss Morrow's ability to miss bats and spin a dazzling curve. But remember the bad times. You have to remember the bad times. Brandon Morrow may one day develop into a shutdown #1, but until he does, he's a tease. An obnoxious, unwatchable tease.
Morrow was relived in the second inning by Josh Roenicke. Roenicke promptly walked Adrian Beltre on four pitches.
0 recs | 103 comments
WHY DO THEY ALWAYS GET BETTER ONCE THEY LEAVE?
Fuckmikereilly - May 10, 2010
The Mariner's curse?
M'sFanatic - May 10, 2010
Running an FIP over that sample size?
His xFIP going into today was 3.83.
harkening - May 10, 2010
And now it is worse because he allowed six walks in 1.2 innings
Jeff Sullivan - May 10, 2010
Yeah.
That was fucking terrible. But if 35 innings is SSS, then what’s 1.2?
harkening - May 10, 2010
Who says 35 innings is a small sample size for FIP?
And beyond that, it’s not just 35 innings, it’s his whole career.
Matthew - May 10, 2010
Nowhere do I project Morrow to post a BB/9 of 32.3
Jeff Sullivan - May 10, 2010
But what about where you projected him to post a K/9 of 21.6?
Trenchtown - May 10, 2010
That picture isn't in context. There were like 30 more people there earlier, but each had to be rushed to the hospital after getting drilled with a Morrow fastball.
kentroyals5 - May 10, 2010
The lone Morrow fan of Lookout Landing.
[sigh]
harkening - May 10, 2010
No I'm here too
Edgar for Pres - May 10, 2010
I'm here.
Kirk - May 10, 2010 via mobile
Here too
Sukafish - May 10, 2010
Sounds like you've got some killing to do
Dewey N - May 11, 2010
I know Morrow won't continue to strike so many people out
But there are only 18 people to ever have above 11 K/9 (and qualify for the ERA title). Right now Morrow is at 11.8 K/9. There are three players with higher totals in one year. Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and Kerry Wood. There really aren’t any bad pitchers who had 10+ K/9 in a season. Being able to strike so many players out means you have some elite skill almost nobody else possesses. Morrow is a special player. Currently he isn’t that good but he’s young and his control only needs to improve a little for him to become a much better player.
When it comes down to it I’d rather watch a high strikeout – high walk pitcher who has some elite pitches than a guy who pitches to contact if they were equally good. Its frustrating sometimes but its a lot of fun for the rest of the time.
Edgar for Pres - May 10, 2010
Also, K/9 is flawed and slightly inflates Morrow's accomplishment since he walks so many hitters
K per batter faced would be more accurate but Baseball Reference didn’t have a leaderboard for it so I stuck with the standard K/9
Edgar for Pres - May 10, 2010
It is important to understand that there's low probability of Morrow being terrible
The strikeouts are a blessing in that regard. The overall package, though, is just awful on the eyes more often than not, and I’m being completely honest when I say that, on average, I’d rather watch Doug Fister.
Jeff Sullivan - May 10, 2010
Actually, about that...
Fister and Morrow both have xFIPs in the low-4’s. Fister’s K/9 is a third as high as Morrow’s, and his BB/9 is a fifth as high.
Crazy routes to the same destination.
Jeff Sullivan - May 10, 2010
It just seems that Morrow's rate of implosion is far greater than Fister's, which wouldn't work well given the current state of our offense.
thehemogoblin - May 10, 2010
Well Fister really shouldn't be as good as he is
Both guys should give up around 4 runs per 9. I would argue Morrow would be better.
Lets say Fister is perfectly consistent and gives up 4 runs per game and Morrow either gives up 0 or 8. The Mariners offense only scores 0, 1, or 2 runs. Morrow would be a better fit in this case because the games where he gives up 0 runs are worth much more.
Edgar for Pres - May 10, 2010
Yeah that's an interesting example.
Edgar for Pres - May 10, 2010
Quick point of reference:
I vaguely remember a series of posts outlining in both general and technical terms the derivations of stats like FIP and wOBA. Could you point me in that direction?
THolt - May 11, 2010
Are you talking about the series that Graham did?
If so it’s called Sabermetrics 101
ToddK - May 11, 2010
Being that this current team is built on defense
and that Morrow never lets the defense touch it… I just dont see how he could have been successful on the Mariners. Strikeouts are exciting, but watching 4 walked batters score is way suckier than 4 strikeouts is cool.
Some guys can make it work. But Morrow isn’t Nolan Ryan.
Kenny Knows Sports - May 10, 2010
E4.
harkening - May 10, 2010
Our elite defense has the effect of reducing a pitcher's ERA by around 0.5 runs on average.
If Fister and Morrow both had xFIP of ~4.5 then we’d probably expect Fister to have an ERA of around 3.9 and Morrow to have an ERA of 4.1. Sure, Morrow strikes out less than Fister but the effect isn’t going to be massive.
Edgar for Pres - May 10, 2010
No way in hell he gets to 130 innings.
Sec 108 - May 10, 2010
He's not that young anymore
He’s not “old” by any means, but he’s past the time when you consider him a “prospect” and expect a guy to start putting his skills to use.
Bad omens:
His LD rate is through the roof (24.7%) and his HR/FB rate is up too. Both are very bad things for a guy who walks as many as Morrow does.
His O-Swing% is WAY up, probably because he can’t find the strike zone at ALL and he’s had the benefit of pitching against Baltimore, Kansas City, the White Sox, Oakland, and Cleveland. You’d expect better hitting (read: more patient) teams would be K’ing less often and BBing even more.
When he starts pitching against better opponents, even mediocre ones instead of bad ones, his LD rate +HR rate + BBs = destruction.
HititHere - May 11, 2010
His LD% is up at the expense of FB, not at the expense of GB.
You can expect his HR/FB to regress a little (his career is 9.9% to this year’s 13.3%, with a peak of 12.8% in 2008). The suggestion that he benefited from facing Chicago is laughable—it was his worst start before yesterday. He went 4 innings and surrendered 2 HR’s. 9 FB to 2 GB.
Nolan Ryan had a high BB%, never got consistently under 5/9IP until he was 32. Morrow isn’t Nolan Ryan, and probably will never hit that kind of ceiling. But you are writing him off with the wrong peripherals. His BB% is up on terrible starts, and in his good starts he’s, well, good. Morrow’s ceiling are his good starts—3.37 FIP in 29.1 innings in five games. His floor is, well, we all know how frustrating he can be.
Despite the WPA index on Fangraphs, I would only classify two of his starts this year as bad: his second against Chicago and yesterday’s. Jeff called him a tease, which is probably accurate. But even as a tease, he’s got a better xFIP than both Vargas and Fister. He doesn’t benefit from the M’s defense (he has Vernon Wells playing CF!) nor from Safeco Field.
There’s no impending destruction. There’s impending Morrow.
harkening - May 11, 2010
Fun fact:
Of the 159 pitchers with 20+ IP so far, Morrow has faced the 12th-easiest collection, with a combined .687 OPS. That he struggled against the White Sox is a bad sign.
Jeff Sullivan - May 11, 2010
Felix tanked against the Rangers and the Angels, both of which are posting a team OPS lower than Chicago.
I’m not suggesting Morrow is Felix. But saying one game where he pitched terribly is a bad sign, what do we say about Felix, who is clearly a better pitcher than Brandon? I think the only conclusion we can reach from a one game sample is “he struggled.”
harkening - May 11, 2010
Who's talking about one game?
Jeff Sullivan - May 11, 2010
Point taken, but I would call his start against BAL bad
5 ER, 4 H, 5 BB in 5 innings.
I know numbers don’t lie, but looking at Morrow’s fangraph I am having trouble trusting his xFIP, plain and simple. He’s striking guys out at a prolific rate, but I attribute that partly to his filthy stuff, and partly due to the fact that he’s pitched against terrible, free-swinging offenses and he can’t find the strike zone.
I would predict that his O-swing% comes back to earth (and it should when he faces patient hitters), and his K’s will shrink. And (I don’t have the formula handy, sorry) without the astronomic K’s, his xFIP will jump up.
You’re correct his LD’s are coming at the expense of fly balls, but his HR/FB rate and LD rate indicate that when he DOES find the strike zone, he’s throwing 97 MPH meatballs in the middle of the plate.
Fister is due to regress, but I’d take his mediocrity any day over Morrow. My blood pressure owes Jack a beer or three.
HititHere - May 11, 2010
The numbers don't lie, but the umpires do.
This is his start against Baltimore, game one. I count seven strike zone pitches called balls, and only one outside the zone called a strike. Morrow was all over the zone in that game, and nibbling beautifully. Two of those pitches came in this Brian Roberts PA that led off the game. A five pitch walk out of what was arguably a 2-2 count. His second walk of the game, against Nick Markakis, also showed a good sequence with a questionable zone.I’m not generally a “ROBOTS!” advocate, but those little calls make a big difference in pitch count and the approach of future hitters.
I’ve watched every Morrow start this year (ask Bluebird Banter), and I openly admit to being a bit of a Morrow fanboy, but there’s evidence to the contrary of his numbers. Except for yesterday. He sucked tremendously. It was terrible.
harkening - May 11, 2010
Please do not use the strikezone plots in that fashion
The plots and the coordinates are not nearly accurate enough for us to be able to count missed calls.
Jeff Sullivan - May 11, 2010
I don't have video of the events in question.
And I wasn’t using plots during the game. This is circumstantial and experiential. The plot is just there to illustrate a point, not as definitive evidence.
Bluebird Banter is inherently bias since they’re rooting for the Jays, but you can go check the gamethreads. The sentiment is that Morrow was getting squeezed and was nibbling really well. If the plots are +/-2", there are a significant amount of pitches around the edge of the zone. Even if we can’t count missed calls, we can see a trend in called strike zones. Felix was gettig the low right corner in this game, despite all available evidence to the contrary?
What’s the point in “ROBOTS!” if the plots aren’t that accurate? The plots are sourced from PitchFX data. I’m just talking about a trend—those borderline balls are all in the bottom part of the zone, forget individual pitches.
harkening - May 11, 2010
Look at the plot that you posted
There was one pitch that we can say was clearly a strike that got called a ball. Maybe two, but probably not. You said “seven,” and that isn’t true, because we just don’t have the accuracy to jump to conclusions about balls on the edge. There’s an error in our measurements, and that rectangular strike zone plot is not perfectly adjusted.
I agree that little calls make a big difference, and that’s why I am on the robot bandwagon. But I’m pretty tired of seeing these strike zone plots. They’re not as accurate as they’re made out to be.
Jeff Sullivan - May 11, 2010
You're tired of the plots.
Fair enough. But I didn’t mean to imply the plot closes the case. Sorry about that.
harkening - May 11, 2010
It was more a general statement than it was directed at you
Jeff Sullivan - May 11, 2010
Is the actual gameday pitch f/x thing more accurate?
I know that pitch f/x is supposed to be 99% accurate (I keep hearing that number thrown about), so, if it’s true, with what pitch f/x mediums does that actually apply?
Decatur - May 11, 2010
PITCHfx is a very accurate system
It just has a certain margin of error and some calibration issues between stadiums that make it difficult to conduct that kind of analysis we’d really like.
Jeff Sullivan - May 12, 2010
I see your point but disagree
Brad Bergesen, the BAL pitcher, had a bad start, but only walked 1. Pitchers should adjust to strike zones just like hitters do.
Morrow does not get the benefit of the doubt because of a history of similar performances.
HititHere - May 11, 2010
I see your point and I agree.
Pitcher should adjust to strike zones, no question. With that said, I don’t think it’s so much a “benefit of the doubt” for Morrow.
Long-term, if he can continue generating swinging strikes and groundballs (and his LD% and HR/FB rate regress as Edgar for Pres suggests they should blow), then nibbling on the zone can be a useful tool. I was looking at the start from a purely developmental perspective. I think it was a good step, even if the results—including his “adjustment” factor*—were bad.
My only argument here is that Morrow has been far better this season than he ever was an M’s starter—individual games against Oakland and New York excepted, of course. As a starter here, he had an FIP (and I’m talking from memory, having done the calculations before) of something like 5.25. In seven starts in Baltimore, he’s in the low 4’s over seven starts and five of those starts generated an FIP under 4. That means, basically, two horrendous starts that offset everything else.
Given that, I think Morrow is underrated by the Seattle fanbase because of the amazing amount of frustration he gave us over three partial seasons. (And I do not deny that it was amazingly frustrating.) Then again, maybe the Blue Jays organization and coaching has made a difference that ours could not? Maybe a change of scenery has helped? Or maybe he’s the same pitcher and it’s all being read into too much. I don’t know. I just know so far this year, Morrow hasn’t been as disappointing as Jeff’s original post implied.**
*Here’s an interesting proposition: Beyond the Box Score used PitchFX data to generate umpire-specific strike zones. Might we be able to generate some sort of measurement to how well a pitcher adjusts his approach to a strike zone? My instinct tells me there’d be too much noise in the data and staggeringly small sample sizes, but since we’re saying pitchers should adjust, would it be fair to see if they do?
**To me. Maybe Jeff didn’t mean it this way.
harkening - May 11, 2010
*"In seven starts in Baltimore..."
Bah. In Toronto, as the entire rest of the discussion states clearly and repeatedly.
harkening - May 11, 2010
I didn't call him a disappointment
Morrow has had some good starts and he has had some bad starts. He has faced, on the whole, really weak competition. Brandon Morrow has a long, long way to go. That was really the only point of all this.
Jeff Sullivan - May 11, 2010
Hence the double asterisk.
I misjudged the tenor (and therefore the implication) of your post. It seemed critical, but maybe I was getting defensive. He has a long way to go. It’s true; I respect that.
harkening - May 11, 2010
I will be the first to admit I got insanely frustrated with Morrow
He has had some decent stuff starting in Toronto. I try to wish him the best, but I think I’m just bristling at the thought of another hot M’s prospect failing here, then going on to succeed in another organization.
That said, I agree with Jeff (and you) that he’s got a long, long way to go. I still wouldn’t be surprised to look back on this season as another hit-and-miss year of brilliance interspersed with garbage for Brandon.
HititHere - May 11, 2010
I wrote a fanpost over at Bluebird Banter after the League trade.
Essentially, it was defending Morrow and saying I didn’t like the trade even though I like League.
But I also said I didn’t expect him to hit his ceiling until 2013 or 2014, and not even be a legitimate #2/#3 guy until 2012. So I have him pegged for two years of development time as a starter. So, yeah, long way.
harkening - May 11, 2010
Both his LD rate and HR/FB rate should regress because pitchers tend to have little control over these
Having a high O-Swing% is always a good thing. They can’t tell where pitches are going. His astronomical BB rate should also regress to his career average. If he is healthy he should improve slightly at the worst and has the chance to be better. The only concern I really have with Morrow is his health. He is pitching like crap now and can’t find the strikezone for the life of him and he still has a FIP of 4.4. His health is the question mark to me.
Edgar for Pres - May 11, 2010
The O-Swing% is good but I'm not sure his BB rate will regress
Pitchers may not have much control of their LD and HR/FB so those will probably regress also. But after watching him fly all over the zone this year, I don’t have faith he’ll be able to suddenly find what little control he used to have. In addition, his LOB is 64%, much lower than his career average.
A quick glance at Fangraphs isn’t showing that he has a tendency to start off slow. On the contrary, it seems he generally starts off decently, then BBs more as the year goes on (as he fatigues, perhaps?).
That’s more of a bad sign than a good one.
HititHere - May 11, 2010
He generally starts off in the bullpen.
Fucking Mariners “development” path.
harkening - May 11, 2010
Touche
His time starting has been too sporadic to get a true idea of how he “starts out.”
HititHere - May 11, 2010
An obnoxious, unwatchable tease with rather close-set eyes.
msb - May 10, 2010
Diabeetus
Cantu Easley Winn - May 10, 2010
Sounds like a girl I know...
Fear - May 10, 2010
This is why I loved the League trade from day 1.
Eyeball Kid - May 10, 2010
My emotions on the Brandon Morrow Experience has been something like this:
Linky-link!
Slurvey - May 10, 2010
This is wrong.
Every giraffe knows there is no floor.
Double06 - May 10, 2010
Typical Morrow start.
Usually you know by the 2nd inning which Morrow showed up. Surprisingly, this isn’t even the worst I’ve seen from him.
FisteeFisterer - May 10, 2010
Watching Morrow pitch was like dating a smoking hot chick with IBS.
If they ever got a handle on it, things would be out of this world and you’d never let them go. But man, until then things could randomly get stinky quick.
JAH - May 10, 2010
To think, we could have drafted Tim Lincecum.
M'sFanatic - May 10, 2010
I'm so tempted to flag this comment.
RubioNubio - May 10, 2010
Then do so
seattlebruin - May 10, 2010
It was a joke, by the way.
M'sFanatic - May 10, 2010
I thought this meme was murdered long ago
Brian Floyd - May 10, 2010 via mobile
It should have been.
Felix, Lincecum, Lee…..Fuck you Bavasi, Fuck you.
the other side - May 10, 2010
Shouldn't we hope for the best for Brandon Morrow?
Because we are the one who ruined his development by juggling him between being a starter and stuck in the bullpen.I also believe that Tim Lincecum will follows Morrow’s path of development if he is drafted by the mariners.
Jose Lopez's swing - May 10, 2010
But there's also the part
Where Fuck Brandon Morrow and his faggy face because oh God Gil Meche Gil Meche fuck you fuck you Brandon.
TheBishop - May 10, 2010 via mobile
No
Graham MacAree - May 10, 2010
How did I not register this screenname first?
seattlebruin - May 10, 2010
You weren't aggressive enough
Jeff Sullivan - May 10, 2010
So you're saying I need to be more like Jose Lopez's swing
seattlebruin - May 10, 2010
Jose Lopez's swing is a homage to Jose Lopez who does not feel guilty after hacking wild on a two strike pitch
Jose Lopez's swing - May 10, 2010
That was the joke
Jeff Sullivan - May 10, 2010
Lazy?
JY - May 10, 2010
I am
But only because I own a Morrow autographed baseball.
-Tag - May 11, 2010 via mobile
Being out of baseball is what's best for him
the boy clearly doesn’t know how to take care of himself.
Bearskin Rugburn - May 11, 2010
As I was saying last year
Morrow can be a great pitcher, but just never for the Ms – get rid of him. This year, apparently just never for the Js either….
Sirbunt - May 10, 2010
I for one am sure glad we have League instead of Morrow
Morrow was unwatchable at times. It sucks when some people seem to have great ability but can’t utilize it. I always thought Morrow’s problem was that he was a headcase, but as pointed out above, it just seems that his control is bad (which might be due to the head after all, but who knows).
Sam Regens - May 10, 2010
I really hope Morrow gets it just for sake of excellent baseball
It was hard to watch him, wondering if he was going to look brilliant or look completely lost. His stuff is definitely under the definition of sick nasty. I hope he goes far, but I don’t miss him.
ungoreatstefan - May 10, 2010
Morrow 2 years ago
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=3426714
Damn he is dominant. It’s a pity he cannot sustain it.
Jose Lopez's swing - May 10, 2010
"Damn he is dominant. It’s a pity he cannot sustain it."
I like that this comment was made by someone named “Jose Lopez’s swing”.
JY - May 10, 2010
"He's consistent, he just can't sustain it"
-Joe Morgan
Grady Clapp - May 10, 2010
Unsustainable consistency is the worst.
the other side - May 10, 2010
What's better unsustainable consistency or unsustainable inconsistency?
M'sFanatic - May 10, 2010
Yes.
the other side - May 10, 2010
I just realized that picture was taken during an actual game.
Were they giving out AIDS? Come on people he may be terrible sometimes but damn hes interesting.
the other side - May 10, 2010
Maple leafs
Even when out of the playoffs…dont ask how
Opisgod - May 10, 2010
Attendance in Toronto
is down 6,000 people per game compared to last year at this time. Trading Halladay + raising ticket prices = lots of empty seats. Not to mention ownership basically saying “wait four years, hopefully we can compete then”. On the plus side, I can get into every single Jays game this year for $100 (Canadian).
And as someone who watched him pitch, I find it funny how a pitcher named Brandon is labeled “a tease. An obnoxious, unwatchable tease.”, and it’s not League. But I hope the Hawaiian Punch-Out does well in Seattle, and that Morrow learns how to throw a few strikes in a row. That’d be nice.
abelard - May 10, 2010
You may want to hang on to this
Walk the World
yakvalleycardinal - May 10, 2010
it's funny
the very first time I saw Morrow as a Jay, he didn’t last five innings and I literally made a note (in all caps) to avoid seeing him again. Then the Royals came to town, Brian Bannister was starting against Morrow, so I went. He took a no hitter into the 6th (it got broken up by Yuni, which made me laugh).
To be honesty (and I’ll probably say something different in October or next year), I’d rather watch a flaky starter than, say, Brian Tallet or Jeff Suppan. Worst case scenario, you leave early. Best case scenario, you’ve seen something exciting.
abelard - May 11, 2010
Most likely scenario
BBrandon Morrow sucks
cmccrack206 - May 11, 2010
False.
Most likely scenario: Brandon Morrow goes 5 or 6 innings, walks a lot but makes up for it with strikeouts. He keeps the team in the game and gets to the middle relievers. One day out of 10 he goes out and flashes the stuff of legend. A few starts later, he has a meltdown. And people choose to remember what they will: the brilliance or the suckfest according to the attitude of the observer.
harkening - May 11, 2010
His first start against the Yankees back in '08 was a bright spot in a terrible season.
No-hitter into was it the 8th? Then same thing against Oakland last year. That start against New York was something special though. Dude has some amazing talent, just can’t take it fro one start to the next. You will see some amazing stuff from him to make up for nights like tonight.
Hopefulmsfan - May 11, 2010
And this one too!
Eyebrows - May 11, 2010 via mobile
He's doing the Julian Peterson all wrong. He's supposed to point to his name on the back.
kentroyals5 - May 11, 2010
I'm always going to root for Morrow though.
His ceiling is so high, and we stuck with him for so long, it was a kick in the balls for me when he got traded, especially since I had no idea who League was.
I dunno, I guess I always just thought he’d have some kind of crazy RJ uprising at some point, where he puts it all together (not saying he’s anywhere near the talent, just mentioning the career path.)
BigR - May 11, 2010
Morrow a disappointment
Morrow is a disappointment, just like Clement was. I apologize for being a Clement supporter. He’s hitting under .200 in Pittsburgh.
Let’s get Jermaine Dye to replace Sweeney.
Jmnor8 - May 11, 2010
no no no no no
seattlebruin - May 11, 2010
oh lordy
pdb - May 11, 2010
lordy I need a 40
Sec 108 - May 11, 2010
I hear Julio Franco still wants to play
Somebody get his agent on the horn.
HititHere - May 11, 2010
They were choosing between Morrow and Bard
Lincecum wasn’t even 2nd choice apparently
Kenny Knows Sports - May 11, 2010
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