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Lookout Landing

Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays

Seattle: 13-21
Tampa Bay: 24-10

MARINERS Δ Ms RAYS EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)
-32.6 (29th) 1.7 8.8 (10th) Tampa Bay
FIELDING (?) 18.3 (3rd) 1.0 19.5 (2nd) Tampa Bay
ROTATION (tRA)
-4.1 (21st) 1.5 15.0 (4th) Tampa Bay
BULLPEN (tRA)
-5.2 (25th) -0.3 4.3 (9th) Tampa Bay
OVERALL(RAA)
-23.6 (24th) 3.9 47.6 (5th) TAMPA BAY






 

And I saw Sisyphus at his endless task
raising his prodigious stone with both his hands.
With hands and feet he tried to roll it up to the top of the hill,
but always,
just before he could roll it over on to the other side, its weight would be
too much
for him, and the pitiless stone would come thundering down
again
on to the plain. Then he would begin trying to push it up hill
again

Sigh. What a mismatch this series shapes up to be. The Mariners survived their initial tests in getting through the first 22 games without Cliff Lee, but have struggled --to put it mildly-- once the real test began in May. There aren't any more soft landings, they've used them all up. They need to start winning now and to do so will require beating some teams that are more talented then they are. It's not impossible, but we sure could use a check in the form of some good luck from the regression fairy.

Tampa tosses three more righties against us this series. How much Griffey plays might well give us a clue as to how the team is going to approach the roster moves when Milton Bradley returns. Or it might not. In case you haven't noticed, we don't know. I'm not entirely confident the actual front office knows but even if they do, they're not sharing that info with us. You can ask what we would do and we'll be happy to refer you to the countless times that we've gone over what roster moves we'd like to see made. You can ask us to speculate on why a certain move was or was not made. Just don't ask us what will happen. We don't know.

Fri May 14, 16:10: Doug Fister vs. Wade Davis

Sat May 15, 13:10: Jason Vargas* vs. James Shields

Sun May 16, 10:40: Cliff Lee* vs. Matt Garza

At least by tRA these three represent our best possible series rotation. Thanks to his jaw-droppingly bad pair of starts before yesterday, Felix finds himself with the team's fourth-best tRA from the rotation. Life is weird.

By the way, Doug Fister missed nary a single bat in his last start and got just two swings and misses in the one previous to that. Over those 206 pitches and 15 innings, he has five strikeouts (all looking) and one walk allowed. In his last 38 innings pitched, Fister has walked three batters. He has a 2.2% walk rate over that span. 2010 Doug Fister is Carlos Silva circa 2006 at 10% of 2006 Carlos Silva's cost which is a Grand Canyon filled with Kettle Chips sight better than 2006 Carlos Silva at 2008 Carlos Silva's cost and a lunar rocket to the perpetual orgasm planet better than what we actually got from Silva.

Doug Fister's BABIP is at .226. Jason Vargas' BABIP is at .223. Ohhhhhhhh no.

I will not cheapen our celebration of Felix Day by calling it Cliff Lee Day. I am slightly partial to the Cliffmas moniker, but that is neither here nor there at the moment. Every Cliff Lee start should be treasured from here on out. We have to face the reality that he's not likely to be a Mariner come 2011 and now start preparing that he may not even be a Mariner come August. I know he doesn't quite have the long standing emotional ties with many of you, but for me he represents not just himself. He is a symbol of all the hope that I had for 2010. I don't want that to leave, not this soon. 

Doug Fister Jason Vargas Cliff Lee
Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 57% 88 20 60 45
Change 21% 81 40 80 60
Curve 10% 75 60 30 75
Sinker 6% 89 35 55 65
Slider 5% 82 40 80 55
Overall -- -- 20 70 55
Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 54% 88 40 35 35
Change 20% 80 80 70 40
Sinker 16% 85 40 40 25
Slider 7% 82 20 30 50
Overall -- -- 50 40 30
Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 60% 90 70 80 45
Change 14% 83 50 75 55
Sinker 11% 90 45 80 45
Curve 9% 76 55 50 75
Slider 6% 85 30 80 50
Overall -- -- 50 80 45
Wade Davis James Shields Matt Garza
Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 59% 92 75 70 30
Sinker 15% 92 30 30 50
Curve 12% 79 20 75 75
Slider 10% 85 50 20 80
Overall -- -- 40 40 40
Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 40% 91 50 75 50
Change 25% 82 80 80 55
Sinker 13% 89 45 50 30
Curve 12% 77 60 50 50
Slider 10% 86 20 65 70
Overall -- -- 75 70 55
Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 69% 93 70 50 50
Slider 14% 85 70 65 50
Curve 9% 76 35 35 55
Change 7% 84 35 35 25
Overall -- -- 55 45 45

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Comments

It's still hard for me to fathom that our rotation ranks that poorly.

Thanks a lot RRS and Snell.

RRS yes, Snell not so much
Nice sentence

You know the one.

Seconded.

First you made me hungry, then…

I cannot believe someone is worse than us at hitting.

I just can’t.

Wow.. Yeah. It's the Astros

And it really isn’t all that close. .260 for HOU, .293 for us. (Fan Graphs)

How can we move this team to the NL?

Having our pitchers hit, amazingly, would be a better option at this point as well.

Our DHs v. Astros' pitchers

Astros pitchers are hitting .207 with 1 double and 0 HR. Our DHs (not just limited to Griffey and Sweeney) are hitting .186 with 3 doubles and 1 HR in more than twice as many ABs.

Was this what MLB envisioned back in 1973?

Why yes it was

As the MLB representatives were pondering the future glory of the sport, they thought, “How can we keep barnd name players, past their prime, around in the game when they can longer take the field?”

and thus the DH was born.

Ah yes, BUT

the thinking was “they can no longer take the field, but they can still hit”…

Old player skills!
Sweeneys batting cleanup again
Ugh. Yeah...

Via Shannon Drayer’s twitter:

M"s lineup Ichiro Figgins Guti Sweeney Lopez Kotchman Jo Wilson Moore Saunders
Against a righty....odd
Somethin's going on!

Per Baker:

Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik arrived about an hour ago. He had planned to join the team at some point on this trip, but had not been sure. He made a beeline for Ken Griffey Jr.‘s locker upon entering the visitors’ clubhouse and the two had a long chat. So, it might be safe to assume Zduriencik’s appearance here, rather than in Oakland, may have been prompted largely by events of the past week.
Wak doing his best to get Saunders as few at bats as possible
I think this is more of the "don't put too much pressure or change his routine" type of mentality

After last year and the first part of this year in AAA, I don’t blame him – let the dude’s confidence grow. If he is having success in the 9 hole, keep him there for awhile.

At this point, I think you might have to risk comfort for optimal run scoring opportunities.

Staying the course just isn’t cutting it.

I agree - and I can see both sides of it.

I just think that there is a downside to moving him out of the spot where he is building confidence. Don’t get me wrong, I know there is the obvious upside of moving him up and having a hot bat in the middle of the lineup, as well.

He was nearly broken (confidence wise) last year – or at least it seemed like it – I am hesitant to push him up and have it happen again until he builds it up a bit more, which might not take that long if he continues at this pace!

Lopez hitting 5

I officially have no faith in Don Wakamatsu’s brain.

Sunuvabitch…

He hit a dinger yesterday!

That must mean he’s good again!

Hey Downers!

I’m personally just as optimistic now as I was before the season (well at least, before the season but after Lee got hurt). Guti is doing what he’s doing, Saunders is coming around, Langerhans is doing well, Lopez is showing good defense while he’s still around (I mean, how high were your expectations for his offense anyway?), Most of our top prospects are doing just fine. Most of our worst aspects are very fixable – Sweeney and Griffey, our DHPHs (Place Holders), will ride off into the sunset sooner or later, hopefully followed by Lopez. Figgins will turn things on, no doubt. It’s all good, bros.
shrug

Maybe it's not so smart to call people names when you haven't been posting long

if that’s just your sense of humor, I apologize, but still, maybe avoid the name-calling in future?

And more to your point, the fixability is what has a lot of people distressed – it may be fixable, but it isn’t being fixed.

Bingo (to your third sentence).

Fixable is great if you actually do something about it.

And come Monday, it may be too late fix it anyway.

We’re 20 percent of the way through the season already, and we’re about to face one of the best teams in baseball three times. We need to not suck this weekend.

We need more Saunders!
...Did I just hear a call for more cowbell?

[insert photoshopped image of Will Ferrell banging cowbell here – but replace Will with Saunders]

.

Saunders Nyjer Morgan.

3 games in a row without Griffey starting, maybe he is already getting the Jack Wilson treatment and a DL move is forthcoming.
Probably waiting for Bradley to be available again, as who the hell else will fill that roster spot?
We need to Wally Pipp that shit.
Hmm
Grand Canyon filled with Kettle Chips

Is this a Carlos SIlva fat joke?

No it is not because those are not funny and are way overused
It was just ironic is all
It was just delicious is all

A king county dream.

If you dove face first into the Kettle Chip Grand Canyon with your mouth open, you could get a Kettle Chip core sample of deliciousness.
No you would get Kettle Chip lacerations.
Now with extra salt!
This was an extension of my childhood dream to fill my pool with layered flavors of pudding and then do the same thing.
Why does that dream have to die with childhood?
I learned about bacterial growth.
stupid book learnin'
Chill the pool?
Odd, GMZ wasnt supposed to be in Tampa.

He just showed up in the clubhouse

You sure it was him and not his coaching twin?
That always confuses the hell out of me

when I go to games.

I love how we're all hoping this means something major.

I can’t see Griffey retiring on the road, so that shouldn’t be it.

Could just be a light a fire meeting.

Or a subtle reminder he’s looking over their shoulders

GM in the clubhouse is kind of unusual isn't it? Typically the narrative after is the players don't like it
I believe the trip to Baltimore was the first he missed this year.
He could catch a cab home from the park.
I heard he ratted out Griffey, and is going to fight Sweeney.
In college, he must have been one of those guys that just showed up to parties uninvited.
Might be planning to be a DH in one of the next two games.
Progress???
Wak on DH we are going with the best match ups that give us the best chance to win. Catchers-must handle the pitchers and catch the baseball. -Drayer’s Twitter

Wait…catchers must catch the baseball?

Rob Johnson is so bad he can shake even the sturdiest of belief systems.
I'd be willing to bet that this doesn't mean anything.
Me too, sadly.
Rob Johnson is so bad...

how bad is he? Rob Johnson is so bad…he’s the starting catcher for the Seattle Mariners! Ahhhahahaha! Oh…wait…

Yakov Smirnov said it!
Seems logical, no?

HOW IS THIS JUST NOW COMING TO THE FOREFRONT!?

Because we've been waiting for the weather to warm up...

Once its hotter out I’m sure Griffey will start producing, Johnson will start catching, Lopez’ balls will start carrying further (i.e. over the fence), Chone will put better swings on the ball, Bradley will see all the flowers in bloom and mellow out, and Jack’s legs will hold up better. Did I miss anyone? :-P #sotiredoftheexcuses

Bedard is coming back!
What's Seattle's team payroll right now?

That’s the thing the Mariners have that a ton of other teams don’t; They’ve got the money to give him $16-18MM/year, but it’s all for naught if he’s fed up with a half-run of support per game.

Whether Lee will be a Mariner in August depends on what Z wants for him

Well, I mean, obviously, but the choice is a smattering of vetted minor leaguers from somebody’s farm system, or two draft picks (right?) from the Yankees. Given that draft picks give you full control over whom you get, or at least to whom you have the rights, he might go that route, and not depend on who the other team wants to give.

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