This team is not as bad as their record. This team is not as bad as their record. This team is not as bad as their record. If you want to give up on the season, go ahead. But don't bring your defeatism here. Not now. I just got to watch Cliff Lee dice up the Rays like it was a Double-A team. Take that away from today. Michael Saunders was a couple inches from catching Carl Crawford's triple. B.J. Upton's double was on a joke of a swing.
All three games in this series were winnable. The Mariners didn't convert all three into wins, but they hung in with the Rays. This team is not as bad as their record.
Biggest Contribution: Casey Kotchman +.058
Biggest Suckfest: Chone Figgins -.196
1 recs | 235 comments
I love the Seattle Mariners. And we WILL recover from this.
JamMasterJesus - May 16, 2010
I fucking hate the Mariners.
kentroyals5 - May 16, 2010
Maybe if you loved them, they wouldn't spite you with thier terrible play, hmm?
JamMasterJesus - May 16, 2010
You, Sir, are right. We will recover.
TrustBaseball - May 16, 2010
I have no fucking idea where this hope is coming from, but it feels good.
the other side - May 16, 2010
We've got great pitching and defense.
We’ve encountered some bad luck and we currently have an ineffective offense. The offense is going to get better.
TrustBaseball - May 16, 2010
Fister and Vargas will regress as Figgins and Lopez turn their miserable seasons around
I think Bradley and 1B are the keys to this turnaround (if it happens).
Rudy4three - May 16, 2010
there is a difference between being defeatist...
… and coming to a rather defensible conclusion that this team is not and cannot consistently be competitive. Enough of the “bad luck” bullshit. We are a team that should be thinking about restocking talent pools and improving the skills of our core.
Gekko Mojo - May 16, 2010 via mobile
Explain how the "bad luck" stuff is bullshit, please.
Explain Casey Kotchman’s .188 BABIP, or Chone Figgins’ .250 BABIP, or Jose Lopez’s .238 BABIP, or his 2.2 HR/FB%, or the team’s .276 BABIP, among other things. Explain why these things are sustainable.
Griffin Cooper - May 16, 2010
easy
When you lack power and hit a lot of groundballs, your babip is going to be low relative to the league average. Low babip by itself does not imply bad luck.
Gekko Mojo - May 16, 2010 via mobile
That doesn't explain career norms
Casey Kotchman’s career BABIP: .271. Chone Figgins’ career BABIP: .338. Jose Lopez’s career BABIP: .283
Griffin Cooper - May 16, 2010
Lots of ground balls should mean a higher BABIP.
Teej - May 16, 2010
Oh yeah this too
Griffin Cooper - May 16, 2010
I'm with you on this. No reason to give up yet.
M'sFanatic - May 16, 2010
Why do we always hurt the ones we love? :(
JY - May 17, 2010
Because the ones we love were getting it from behind when we came home early from work?
Sec 108 - May 17, 2010
The people who are giving up already apparently don't understand that this team has had terrible luck
Which isn’t going to keep up
Griffin Cooper - May 16, 2010
Alright, that makes sense. But haven't we been saying that for like 2 weeks now?
flashbeak - May 16, 2010
It's still true.
Aaron Campeau - May 16, 2010
I'm not denying that. I'd just rather not rely on luck to bring us wins.
flashbeak - May 16, 2010
There's a difference between relying on luck and not wanting to have awful luck
Griffin Cooper - May 16, 2010
Actually I do understand.
I just think we’re very close to digging ourselves to big a hole to get out of. Not only that, but I don’t trust the manager to do what’s right in order for the team to win.
Poochie - May 16, 2010
I'm certainly with you on the latter
Griffin Cooper - May 16, 2010
I'm still hoping Ichiro goes vigilante and starts picking off the bad players in the dugout during his at bats.
abender20 - May 16, 2010
Yup.
I don’t think this is a bad team, but what’s done is done. We’re almost a quarter of the way through the season, and 5.5 games is a solid gap. And it’s not like we’re only chasing one team.
I’m not giving up, but I’m not confident.
Teej - May 16, 2010
I don't see anyway realistic way we can win with Griffey starting
Poochie - May 16, 2010
So in otherwords
I can’t be optimistic until they make our easily fixable problems go away
Poochie - May 16, 2010
Well
I have a hard time believing Griffey’s going to be getting ABs in late June if he’s still under the Mendoza line. At some point, if Griffey doesn’t take himself out of the lineup, someone in the organization is probably going to suggest a DL trip for acute suckitis if Griffey wants to do the farewell tour once rosters expand in September.
eponymous_coward - May 16, 2010
Even if we were to replace
Griffey with a 1 WAR player going forward, how much better does it make us?
Ballard Erik - May 16, 2010 via mobile
Well, one win at the very least.
Snark aside there’ll also be the added flexibility as absolutely any player that replaces Griffey will be more versatile. It would help if our manager showed any rudimentary understanding of how to use his bench though.
Eyeball Kid - May 16, 2010
Well it would make us more than one win better because the Griffdawg has been worth -.5 WAR or so.
Kirk - May 16, 2010
Hence 'at the very least'.
Eyeball Kid - May 16, 2010
Yeah, this.
Last year’s Mariners weren’t ever THIS far under .500, and while we were able to get within a couple of games of the lead by July, it took a month of playing very good baseball in June… and by the end of July we were toast.
We’re starting to run out of runway.
That being said, yes, this team isn’t this bad, unless you believe that Chone Figgins, Jose Lopez and Casey Kotchman have completely and irrevocably lost the ability to hit a baseball. I actually feel pretty good about the fact that Vargas has developed nicely, and Fister is doing well, though Hyphen losing ~5 mph on his fastball from the end of 2009 to now worries me, given his injury history.
eponymous_coward - May 16, 2010
If you get rid of Griffey is actually like this team on baseball assuming someone sensible is writing out the lineup card
Poochie - May 16, 2010
Yeah.
I wouldn’t even mind Sweeney being 25th guy so much, if Milton’s the everyday DH.
Also, I forgot Saunders, which I should have added. IF Vargas and Saunders develop into 2-3 WAR players (this is questionable, but hey), we’re a LONG LONG way towards solving problems this team has had for a while (the team’s got sufficient talent at the top of the pyramid with Felix/Ichiro, and plenty of replacement-level talent, but is missing players to fill out the middle).
eponymous_coward - May 16, 2010
This is my feeling
OlSalty - May 17, 2010
Well that's pretty condescending
Bearskin Rugburn - May 17, 2010
It wasn't intended to be
Griffin Cooper - May 17, 2010
There's no reason the bad luck won't keep up -
our current luck has no bearing on future events, so there’s no guarantee that we’ll get luckier as the season progresses, as nice as it would be.
We’ve both sucked and been really unlucky, and that’s a horrible combination.
seattlebruin - May 17, 2010
Sure, there's not a guarantee. I'm not saying we're guaranteed of anything.
But it’s unlikely that our luck is going to continue being this bad
Griffin Cooper - May 17, 2010
Whether or not our record is deserved or not, it's our record
And it’s bad.
OlSalty - May 17, 2010
Well yeah, clearly. But we're still only 5.5 back in Mid May in a division where no one's likely to run away any time soon
Griffin Cooper - May 17, 2010
Texas is looking pretty good
maybe not run away with the division good, but good. Guerrero is hitting very well, their starters look better than we thought… and what have we got? Bradley coming back from his meditation retreat? Bedard coming back from Labrum surgery? Those are our silver bullets. I understand about bad luck and regression, believe me I do. I just happen to think that this was a team with precious little margin for error, and just about all of that has been chewed up. We’ve played what is absolutely the easiest part of our schedule and come out of it looking like shit. Maybe the team will start playing better but until major roster changes are implemented there’s no way to think of the Mariners as an over .500 team.
Bearskin Rugburn - May 17, 2010
Not sure why Bedard's labrum merits a capital letter.
Bearskin Rugburn - May 17, 2010
You might think I disagree with you on this, but I don't at all
It’s your last point that’s the most important – the one about roster changes. If we don’t fix the obvious problems with this roster, I don’t think we’re going to contend. But with what Jack Zduriencik has already shown us over the last year and a half, I’m not ready to think he could be so dumb as to let this continue happening. I expect changes to happen over the next week or so. If I’m wrong, well, we’ll probably end up being a ~.500 team in a year that could have been so great.
Griffin Cooper - May 17, 2010
I would think our second off day this week (today being the first)
Will be the day where changes happen. You have an off day in the middle of a homestand, with a long stretch of continuous play coming up fast – seems like perfect timing to me.
seattlesundevil - May 17, 2010
And by all of that, I mean next week. Wow I am really off this week!
seattlesundevil - May 17, 2010
Also today isn't an off day
Griffin Cooper - May 17, 2010
Thus, "I mean next week"
But yeah, strange effed up thought process. I blame Sean White.
seattlesundevil - May 17, 2010
Mariners could still realistically end May only 3 or 4 games out of first
Get Bradley back (and hopefully rehabilitated), get a bat from trades and the hopefully-inevitable regression to the mean in regards to luck and this team will be competing by All Star break.
Seriously, the luck has to change at some point.
Right?
ManifestDestiny - May 16, 2010
In theory!
Griffin Cooper - May 16, 2010
That's what makes it so depressing.
Mariner John - May 16, 2010
Good perspective Matthew.
There are definately positives to take away from this series…I just wish that winning it was one of them.
Omerta - May 16, 2010
Also, I'm beginning to wonder if the eventual winner of the AL West will have a sub .500 record.
Omerta - May 16, 2010
79-83?
kennerdoloman - May 16, 2010
Best division in baseball!!!
the other side - May 16, 2010
The Rangers aren't going to finish under .500
Griffin Cooper - May 16, 2010
I think they could.
I don’t think they’re all they’re cracked up to be.
Fuckmikereilly - May 16, 2010
I don't really think they will
but it is interesting seeing all of the AL West teams struggle mightily with their various flaws.
Omerta - May 16, 2010
Its just that I've never seen a team that always seems to find a way to lose
Even if they are in fact not as bad as their record. Last season they found ways to win.
Kenny Knows Sports - May 16, 2010
That's almost entirely a function of luck.
This team is like a negative photocopy of last year’s.
Aaron Campeau - May 16, 2010
Yeah its just hard to watch and dejecting.
Kenny Knows Sports - May 16, 2010
Absolutely
Aaron Campeau - May 16, 2010
Thank you AL
speedomike - May 16, 2010 via mobile
West
Damn it.
speedomike - May 16, 2010 via mobile
I think there is a psychological component to these losses.
Last year, the team was all about winning the close games. This year we can’t do it. I think maybe the attitude of the team is a big difference. The “never say die” attitude wins more games that the “oh, fuck here we go again” attitude. Not statistically provable, but as a coach I can vouch for it.
Jon S. - May 16, 2010
It's luck.
Aaron Campeau - May 16, 2010
And a team that by design will play in a lot of low scoring games, with a somewhat non-awesome bullpen
There’s a lot of close losses late in that formula.
Freneau - May 16, 2010
The bullpen has really underperformed expectations.
Before the season, the bullpen looked like an embarrassment of riches. What happened?
Jon S. - May 16, 2010
Lowe is hurt, Kelley has been misused, League has been unlucky, Sean White and Jesus Colome suck.
Griffin Cooper - May 16, 2010
And Aardsma is exactly the same pitcher he was last year.
abender20 - May 16, 2010
I feel like League has been less unlucky and more overused.
joof - May 16, 2010
Probably a little of both
Griffin Cooper - May 16, 2010
Also they changed League's delivery so his splitter doesn't work nearly as well anymore.
Drayer says it was to help prevent possible future injuries. Has League had a history of injury problems or something? It seems to me, you shouldn’t screw with awesome and make it less awesome unless you have a dang good reason to do so.
hiskeyd - May 16, 2010
One year
he came to the Jays’ spring training having lost 5-10 miles off his fastball. The official story was he’d screwed up his shoulder by surfing too much, which sounded terribly suspicious. He’s also changed his delivery/arm angle several times over the course of his major league career.
abelard - May 16, 2010
Statistically speaking, yes.
There is no statistical proof that attitude affects anything. But “getting down on yourself” isn’t an explanation for poor performance that was pulled out of thin air. Hundreds of years of hundreds of sports support that observation.
Also, physiologically speaking, emotions trigger physical responses. Negative emotions (like anticipating disappointment) can trigger physiological responses like lethargy and lack of focus. Neither of these responses are helpful in what should be an adrenaline-packed contest where every PA matters.
I admit that in statistics and economics, these explanations are useless.
Jon S. - May 16, 2010
Is it really that much of a given?
Honestly wouldn’t a lot of that stuff be misidentified in variants of confirmation bias? Sports pysch is such a garbage realm because everything is tied to wins and losses and post-facto evaluations and explanations.
Supposedly losing teams also start to “press” which seems like it would be the opposite of lethargy and loss of focus. One day we hear about how guys need to stay loose, then the next we hear about how there needs to be a player’s only meeting where everyone screams at each other and calls each other names, and then the next day its about having fun out there.
Freneau - May 16, 2010
Sport psych IS garbage. But there's nothing else that can account for the human side of sports.
No sports psychology explanation can ever be proven or disproven. As a scientist, I hate that. As a human and former athlete, I can’t discount it.
Jon S. - May 16, 2010
luck? what are you talking about?
Breaks go both ways in any game. We don’t have the quality of talent to overcome the ones that go against us. Let’s accept this and move on to crafting the team we want to be in 2011.
Gekko Mojo - May 16, 2010 via mobile
This team has been unsustainably unlucky so far this season, particularly offensively
It’s tough to overcome the bad breaks when you don’t get any good breaks. Also, really? You do realize that Milton Bradley, Jack Wilson, Mark Lowe, and Erik Bedard have all been out and are all fairly close to returning, right? You also know that we’re 5.5 GB and it’s May 16th in a weak division, right?
Griffin Cooper - May 16, 2010
if you want to hang your hat on the bad luck theory,
…Then what do we make of Fister, Vargas, Ichiro and Guti? Also, you then have to acknowledge that others in the AL West have been unlucky and that they will revert to their expected level of performance. 80 wins is our “better case” scenario and that won’t be enough to win this division. We’d be fools to try if it means sacrificing moves that can position us better next year.
Gekko Mojo - May 16, 2010 via mobile
Fister's going to regress, and so is Vargas (though to a lesser degree).
Ichiro and Guti will too – but none of them to anywhere near the degree that Figgins, Kotchman, Lopez, or Bradley will. Plus, we were missing Cliff Lee for the first 3 weeks of the season, and Felix was hurt for a couple of starts. This team has had a lot of shitty things happen to it, on top of an abundance of shitty offensive luck – much moreso than any other team in the division.
Griffin Cooper - May 16, 2010
This is simple enough.
Ichiro: He’s really, really ridiculously good
looking. This isn’t the first time he’s posted a .390 BABIP. He has three other seasons in his career with a BABIP over .380. It happens.Guti’s BABIP should regress, but we’ve seen a complete change in his approach at the plate this year. He has evolved as a hitter. He’s swinging at less pitches, but making contact more on pitches out of the zone. He’s hitting less groundballs and more flyballs and line drives. He likely won’t be posting a .380 wOBA for the whole season, but if he can maintain this approach, even as the luck fizzles, he could realistically maintain .350-ish.
Fister is posting an xFIP in the 4’s, so is Vargas. They’ll both regress. But good defense can (and does) significantly deflate ERA’s. Guess what: we have a good defense!
harkening - May 16, 2010
so, in Guti's case, it is possilble for someone to get sustainably better ...
… but, in the case of Kotchman or Lopez, it is not possible for them to get consistently worse?
I’m not bailing off the ship, I’m just voting for managing this team in such a way that we optimize our chances for 2011 and beyond. Claiming bad luck, suggesting that we can finish the year at a .650 clip to win a bad division (just so we can get completely outclassed in a short first round playoff series) and chanting that this team is somehow better than its record reflects an inability to accept reality and to make different summertime plans.
Gekko Mojo - May 16, 2010
There is evidence to believe that Guti is improving himself in a sustainable way
What is there to suggest that Figgins, Kotchman, and Lopez have all suddenly become sustainably awful?
Also, your point about the playoffs is just wrong. The playoffs are a crapshoot – and if anything, we’d have the advantage (Felix-Lee-Bedard….?)
Griffin Cooper - May 16, 2010
keep believin' my young friend.
.. as for me, I’ll be rooting for us to be sellers at the trade deadline.
Gekko Mojo - May 16, 2010
This kind of rooting is absolutely the worst.
I don’t know why you would root for our team to have a bad record. Ever.
Kirk - May 16, 2010
Strasburg?
But yeah, it’s unrealistic to believe the entire team will continue to bat the Mendoza line. Kotchman in particular seems unlucky.
JAH - May 16, 2010
I'm not rooting for us to have a bad record. I'm rooting for lemonade to come from the lemon of the season that we are having.
I’d hate to see us trade away pieces like Ackley, Triunfel and Fields in order to secure the services of a player who will have little to no impact on how this season is going to end up. You really can’t see the difference?
Gekko Mojo - May 16, 2010
It is possible to not be either a "buyer" or "seller" in the traditional sense
Last year’s Mariners provides an example. Just because the team isn’t planning on trading Cliff Lee doesn’t mean that it is planning on trading Ackley.
Uh - May 16, 2010
Why do people keep talking about Ackley being traded?
He can’t be traded until next year.
Jeff Nye - May 16, 2010
PTBNL!
JY - May 16, 2010
Technically, yes.
In practice, I don’t think players like Ackley move as PTBNL.
Jeff Nye - May 16, 2010
Jeremy Bonderman did!
I’m not saying it’s any less stupid to be talking about it.
JY - May 17, 2010
Way to make me look bad with facts, Jay. :(
Does it happen that often though?
Especially since, if I’m reading the rules right, he’d have to remain a PTBNL for several months?
Jeff Nye - May 17, 2010
Sorry Jeff. :(
Its one that sticks out in my mind because it almost never happens, but yes, he was a PTBNL for several months. It’s highly uncommon on the whole.
JY - May 17, 2010
That's probably why it didn't come to my mind, then.
In any case, it’s just a small factor in why the whole “trade Ackley” discussion is stupid, and I’d wager that 99% of the people who bring it up have no idea how the rules work.
Jeff Nye - May 17, 2010
nevertheless, the point is valid.
… why mortgage future success in the hopes of landing a mediocre major league player who can be put on the roster today? Whether or not you think Fields sucks, or Ackley is untradeable, or X player is in X situation is irrelevant.
Gekko Mojo - May 18, 2010
No, why do people keep talking about Joshua Fields being a good player?
seattlebruin - May 17, 2010
First round pick!
abender20 - May 17, 2010
We could really use a thirdbaseman
Poochie - May 17, 2010
I was so disappointed we signed him
Bearskin Rugburn - May 17, 2010
We had to.
You can’t blow off scouts like that.
JY - May 17, 2010
I hadn't thought of that
I guess there was some trust-building to be done.
Bearskin Rugburn - May 17, 2010
He's not terrible...
just injured (oblique) off and on and struggling to find his command at times.
He could end up being all right, but I wouldn’t spend a first-round pick on him. Doing so with a reliever is generally a terrible idea.
I’m more frustrated with the “call up French!” camp, or worse, the “call up Peguero!” one.
JY - May 17, 2010
It seems like he's had control and injury problems the entire time he's been a professional
that’s really frustrating when he was a guy who was thought to be more big-league ready than just about anyone else in that year’s draft.
Perhaps if he’s ready like we thought he would be, we get to keep Morrow or trade him for a different piece rather than another reliever like League.
I am also inherently biased against relief pitchers who can’t throw strikes =/
seattlebruin - May 17, 2010
Mumba Rivera sucks.
JY - May 17, 2010
You have me mistaken for an optimist.
I bailed on the “In Z We Trust” bandwagon in December (after the Morrow trade) and have been calling for Wak’s head since late last season. I was willing to believe, given the divisional mediocrity, that we could compete with ~.500 ball, if not a little better. And the truth is we still can. The problem is that just to get back to .500, we need to play great baseball for a sustained amount of time. As to your specific questions re: Lopez and Kotchman…
I don’t know what to say about Loafie. He looks absolutely lost.againt right handed pitching. Against lefties, he has a .357/.367/.464 slash line for a .361 wOBA. That’s good to very good. Against righties, oh man: .178/.211/.229 for a .201 wOBA. So he’s obviously capable of seeing the ball and making solid contact still. This is why we can reasonably conclude in luck playing a part in it. He has a .400 BABIP lefties (versus .299 for his career) and .198 against righties (.277 career). He has never shown such a significant platoon split as he has this year. Meanwhile, his line drive and ground ball rates are up overall which should show an increase in average, yet it’s not coming. Even in his abysmal line against righties, his LD% is only down by ~1%, GB% is up and FB% is down. There is just something bizarre going on in his results.
Kotchman, meanwhile, had a slightly above average April and has absolutely tanked in May. I’m not sure how to read into it. His ground balls are way up this month (66.7% versus 52.7% career). He might be sustainably awful for the rest of his career, but then you have to account for April.
This team is better than its record, though. Do I see playoffs coming? No. But I don’t see us playing sub-.400 baseball for the rest of the season either.
harkening - May 16, 2010
I personally don't see Kotchman as our 1B of the future.
Sure, he had a good month. But his track record offensively is just not that impressive.
He has a lot of defensive value, but then he plays 1B, where defense isn’t as important as at other positions.
Cantu Easley Winn - May 16, 2010
Like Branyan, Z took a flyer on an undervalued free agent for a one year contract.
If he was legitimately long term, the future, he’s worth more than a one year signing. He’s not the future. We have him now, and he is contributing for better or worse to this season.
None of which has anything to do with Gekko Mojo’s questions about “sustainably worse” performance or my point above.
harkening - May 16, 2010
We traded Bill Hall for him.
Mariner John - May 16, 2010
Point.
And yet, the loss of Hall versus the gain of Kotchman. Hardly a stifling investment.
harkening - May 16, 2010
Yeah, I'm just saying he wasn't a free agent is all. Otherwise you're right.
Mariner John - May 16, 2010
"just so we can get completely outclassed in a short first round playoff series"
Playoff series do not always go to the team with the best regular season record. (Insert references to any number of “eh” to good-but-not-best teams who have hardware here.)
Look, the path for the M’s to get to the playoffs is ADMITTEDLY narrow, but if they get there, they almost certainly:
- have Saunders performing well in LF
- have Loafie, Figgins, Bradley and Kotchman performing closer to their historic norms of hitting
- aren’t playing 6-4-3 or Griffdawg at DH
- Bedard comes back and performs at his historic norms, which gives you a 1-2-3 of Felix-Lee-Bedard, which history tells us is very important come playoff time and rotations shorten.
I don’t think this is the most LIKELY scenario (given that the M’s haven’t given up on their ancient DHs yet and we still don’t know about Bedard and Bradley, and there’s undoubtedly going to be more bumps in the road), but I have yet to see a convincing argument why it’s an impossible one.
eponymous_coward - May 17, 2010
I'm talking about the fact that the results of one-run games are heavily influenced by chance
and rejecting the notion that last year’s team was psychologically capable of willing themselves to victory while this year’s team is not.
Aaron Campeau - May 16, 2010
Psychologically capable of them, no.
But as a tangentially related side I don’t believe they are truly toss ups. It takes away from the fact that one team is probably better than the other in general, and that team is more likely to score/prevent the runs necessary to win.
CapSea - May 16, 2010
Certainly it is not all luck, but luck explains a great deal of the swing between this season and last
Aaron Campeau - May 16, 2010
Of course. Mine is more of a separate point.
I don’t really like the idea of referring to 1 run games as a tossup, since in reality the better team should be more likely to come out ahead. There is, however, no psychological “winning attitude.” At best one could argue there is a psychological losing attitude (teams have looked visibly defeated during games before) but even that is arguable since each individual player would need to stop trying, and that never happens.
CapSea - May 16, 2010
The only problem with luck
Is it isn’t a rule that good luck will come after a string of bad luck. However it could, so yes please.
Ballard Erik - May 16, 2010 via mobile
I, too, still believe this team can begin winning, and that this record is far worse than what it should be.
That being said, moves need to be made soon. A fairly obvious improvement will be getting MB back.
The problem is, I’m willing to be patient with Kotchman, Figgins, and Lopez, especially given their stellar defense. But collectively being patient with all 3 when they’re hitting like this is giving us no chance of winning ballgames.
Fuckmikereilly - May 16, 2010
When MB gets back, he needs to start HITTING.
If he continues performing like he is right now, the team will not be any better. A wOBA of .300 won’t cut it at any position Milton can play. I hope he’s hitting the cages as often as the therapist’s office.
Jon S. - May 16, 2010
On the Mariners it will.
Fuckmikereilly - May 16, 2010
No it won't.
One potential starter in LF (Saunders) had a .368 wOBA before the game. One DH option (Sweeney) is posting a .351 wOBA. Milton CAN be better than both of them with the bat, but he’s not right now.
Jon S. - May 16, 2010
You need to stop using sample sizes that small.
Aaron Campeau - May 16, 2010
I'm evaluating to-date performance, not talent. I'm not projecting anything either.
I’m using the largest possible sample size for evaluating 2010 to-date performance in the majors. If you think I’m trying to project anything or infer anything about true talent level with these numbers, you’re reading it wrong.
Jon S. - May 16, 2010 via mobile
You're using a sample size far too small to draw any conclusions from to insinuate that Sweeney is a better choice for DH than Bradley.
Aaron Campeau - May 16, 2010
I'm just saying Sweeney has hit better than Bradley so far.
From that fact, I have concluded that when Bradley returns we need to get him some PAs without sacrificing too much of Sweeney’s playing time (assuming Sweeney is still hitting well). We’ll be able to see if/when Bradley starts hitting better than Sweeney, and when that happens we should make the switch. Annointing Bradley the full-time DH before he starts hitting well is a mistake that could cost us runs, and therefore wins.
As for sample size, we went over this in this thread. I can’t link to the exact part of the conversation, but I showed that the last time Bradley was better than Sweeney was 08.
That being said, I want Bradley to start hitting so he can take the DH role (also covered in that thread). I think he’s immensely talented and a better option for the future. But bleeding runs and wins in the meantime is not something we can afford to do.
Jon S. - May 16, 2010 via mobile
To link to a specific comment, right click on the date and copy link loaction.
Eyeball Kid - May 16, 2010
You can't just pretend that Sweeney and Bradley are at the same point on their aging curve.
Jeff Nye - May 16, 2010
You think you showed that, but you didn't.
Your argument is missing 98% of the rest of the puzzle.
Aaron Campeau - May 16, 2010
Does the S stand for Sweeney?
Jeff Nye - May 17, 2010 via mobile
The Mariners have allowed the fourth-fewest runs in the AL.
That’s with some really shit starting pitching performances.
Aaron Campeau - May 16, 2010
We're looking at you...
Ryan Rowland-Smith
dkulich - May 16, 2010
60-day DL for Bedard probably means more RRS
I hope he turns it around.
universalguru - May 16, 2010
Hate to say it
But I’m almost at the point where I would give Olsen or French a start instead of RRS
ManifestDestiny - May 16, 2010
That might be best for Ryan. Maybe he just needs to sit for a bit. He's been terrible.
the other side - May 16, 2010
I'm not a big French believer, but I gotta wonder if his AAA performance so far gets him the rotation spot.
Fuckmikereilly - May 16, 2010
I love Luke French unconditionally and am so sad that his peripherals have gotten worse as his results have gotten better this year
it’s supposed to be the other way around so the analytical nerds think you are good!
seattlebruin - May 17, 2010
I'm not unconditional, but I like the guy.
It’s just that… man… I don’t think he’s going to keep this up and then he does. Cognitive dissonance is a bitch.
JY - May 17, 2010
Is he still experimenting with his changeup?
it seems like his control has been pretty good this year
seattlebruin - May 17, 2010
He might be.
But the weird thing is that I thought it was helping him get some groundballs in spring training and now he’s more extreme on the flyball end of things.
JY - May 17, 2010
Yeah, and he's generally had very good control.
Some of what he’s doing is clearly lucky, but he’s trying to find the Doug Fister path to success – throw strikes, keep hitters off-balance (even if you don’t have the pure stuff to miss a lot of bats), somehow profit.
The GB thing in spring training looks like a fluke. Everyone on the team had insane GB rates in spring training, but that hasn’t lasted.
marc w - May 17, 2010
I vote French
Olson has never impressed me. In my humble opinion, he sucks and can eat poo.
Jon S. - May 16, 2010
Seconded. I just haven't seen anything that suggests Olsen can handle a big league lineup.
the other side - May 16, 2010
Doesn't change Bedard's timeline since it's retroactive.
What Shannon said anyway.
the other side - May 16, 2010
It's retroactive to March
I don’t think he’ll be out much longer.
Omerta - May 16, 2010
Yep he's been on the DL 51 of those 60 days already. I heard early June somewhere but I don't remember where.
the other side - May 16, 2010
He's not on the 60 day anymore.
Mariner John - May 16, 2010
Here.
Link.
the other side - May 16, 2010
.
Aaron Campeau - May 16, 2010
And now I read the "update" and feel like an idiot. Never fucking mind.
the other side - May 16, 2010
Twitter is amazing and annoying all at the same time.
On the one hand constant updates on the teams moves is great, on the other hand it’s easy to get sucked into constantly monitoring for updates.
Kermit. - May 16, 2010
Sure I'll blame the Internets for this one. Fuck you Internets.
the other side - May 16, 2010
Boom, trumped it.
X
Kermit. - May 16, 2010
Too slow sucker.
Kermit. - May 16, 2010
To me, the most interesting story line so far has been the Twilight Zone run environment created by the combination Mariners run prevention and offense.
Tons of games end of not only close but low scoring as a result of both of these effects. Boy, it would be really dandy to see what we could accomplish with a real DH, some better luck, and Jose Lopez pulling his dinosaur head out of his dinosaur ass.
abender20 - May 16, 2010
This crazy run environment also amplifies the effects of the decisions made with respect to the lineup and bullpen.
abender20 - May 16, 2010
Am I crazy
or does it seem like we ALWAYS score just enough to NOT win. I mean why can’t we win a 4-2 game and then lose 1-5 instead of games like 1-2, and 4-5.
universalguru - May 16, 2010
Baltimore Series?
ThundaPC - May 16, 2010
Yes we should rehash that series.
the other side - May 16, 2010
Clay knows just what to say about the Baltimore series.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRwR-li5t_A
marinerdan - May 16, 2010
Okay, I've embraced hopelessness, but I'm not wedded to her because she's a strumpet whore.
So I’d like a reason to hope. But before I can do that, somebody please explain to me what the fuck is going on with Chone Figgins, and should I hope for huge improvement? Don’t tell me to go the stats, please, as much respect as I have for them I don’t understand a lot of the peripherals enough to know what to look for.
Tell me he’s not a hopeless sack of crap, with reference to aging patterns and comparable players and impressive shit that makes me realize that this is the smartest fanbase of any sports franchise on the planet. I want to believe.
esoteric - May 16, 2010
Unlucky. Really low batting average on balls in play. That will rise.
He’s near the top of the league in walks so his approach is ok. I’m optimistic on him.
marinerdan - May 16, 2010
.
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2010/5/12/1468637/chone-figgins-has-been-better-than
Eyeball Kid - May 16, 2010
How bout them Nats!?
Faux - May 17, 2010
We all thought this team would be really, really annoying and boy were we right!
Kotchman, Figgins and Lopez can’t possibly continue to hit so terribly.
Bradley will hopefully come back and hit something like Milton Bradley. If he does so in the DH slot that will solve one glaring problem. *Assuming the organization accepts the undeniable reality that Griffey is soooo fucking done.
Our pitching and defense have been great.
We’ve had so much shit luck and under performance and we’re only 5 games back!
I don’t think Tejas is going to run away from anyone.
We are lucky enough to be in the Special Olympics division.
These are a few good reasons not sink into defeatism and despair.
I’m incredibly frustrated at this point but I’m still hopeful and even a bit optimistic.
Big Jared - May 16, 2010
I'm with you Matt.
The M’s can overcome this. The offense can only get better.
ChaseB - May 16, 2010
It's Matthew.
Eyeball Kid - May 16, 2010
Always the optimist
Look what happens when Jeff and Graham are both away! We need them to break us down, and tell us it’s not okay. That way, when it finally is okay, it feels so much better.
dkulich - May 16, 2010
Jeff seems like more of an optimist in general than Matthew.
Mariner John - May 16, 2010
Matthew*
Thanks Professor, i’m glad you have my back.
ChaseB - May 16, 2010
I didn't write this article.
bluemax - May 17, 2010
2.5 games behind Baltimore for the worst record in baseball.
Goose - May 16, 2010
Strasburg!
abender20 - May 16, 2010
That's sobering.
Omerta - May 16, 2010
Last year the team was 35-20 in one-run games. This year they're 4-9.
It’s really that simple.
SethGrandpa - May 16, 2010
Exactly.
Too bad we couldnt have had last year’s good luck with this year’s weak division.
ARock - May 16, 2010
This surprised me
Our playoff odds actually went up from 5.4% on thursday to 8.0% as of right now.
rest of our division from thursday to today:
Texas: 64.9 → 54.3
Oakland: 27.7 → 21.8
LA: 6.0 → 17.5
Yeah we’ve been very unlucky, but god our division is terrible. Which is kind of lucky.
Karma Police - May 16, 2010
Yep, 5.5 back is bad but not the end of the world
Especially when the team(s) you’re chasing aren’t that good.
calim - May 16, 2010
I love the fact that we actually gained ground in the division race during the weekend.
ThundaPC - May 16, 2010
Despite the good play this year, this season is really hard to endure.
But i’ll keep watching. A ‘95-like comeback is never out of the question, especially in May. Our fortunes have to change eventually. I’ve never seen a team with this much bad luck on a daily basis.
FisteeFisterer - May 16, 2010
Why can't we just lose bad?
It’s so much easier to take than having 3 of the last 4 losses be games we probably should have won.
SethGrandpa - May 16, 2010
This is the best way I can describe my feelings.
Scruffy Lefty - May 16, 2010
Saw this on Digg today. Strange.
Griffin Cooper - May 16, 2010
SNAAAAKE! SNAAAAAAKE!
Oh wait…
JY - May 16, 2010
It it's all the same to you, I think I hate this gif.
CapSea - May 16, 2010
Cliff Lee's K/BB dropped to 25 today.
Fuckmikereilly - May 16, 2010
It's a steep drop from infinity.
JY - May 16, 2010
We have been terribly unlucky, that's for sure
But even if Figgins, Lopez, and Kotchman start getting the results they should, and Griffey/Sweeney go away for a league average hitter, we’re probably still not better than Texas. And they have a 5.5 game head start with 125 to play. Of course the season is by no means over but we’ve gotten to that point where we’re going to need to rely on luck pretty quick here to justify not shopping Lee at the deadline and replenishing the farm. And I hate getting to that point, because it seems like every year we’re pinning our hopes on a bunch of breaks going our way and not actual good, contending baseball, which this year was supposed to be.
Fuck you, Scrappy.
OlSalty - May 16, 2010
Our rotation is still much better than Texas though.
Hopefulmsfan - May 16, 2010
I appreciate the cogent, sober analysis in this thread
But I’m still despondent. And the Madres got swept by L.A. Fuck you baseball, you merciless whore.
lemonverbena - May 16, 2010 via mobile
It's cogent
But I’m not sure if it’s sober.
Cantu Easley Winn - May 16, 2010
I understand that we've had bad luck. I get that we'll eventually see some positive regression.
That said, as talented as this team is, this is still a bummer. While it’s still quite possible that this team will climb back into contention, and thank God the AL West is as bad as it is, I’m going to need to see something great in order to get any hope back. Playing .500 ball against bad teams and competing well but still losing the series against great clubs isn’t doing it.
katal - May 16, 2010
Well said Katal
This sums up my own feelings perfectly. I hate the idea that I’m being stubbornly pessimistic, but it’s going to take more than some good starting pitching performances to make me optimistic again.
johnbai - May 16, 2010
Yeah
To start with this team was borderline to contend. We were hoping it could happen if we got some breaks that fell our way but now the opposite has happened and its happened so fast I haven’t really been able to process what has happened.
Edgar for Pres - May 17, 2010
The hole is getting pretty deep, but we're not out of it yet, since nobody's running away with the division.
I just hope Kotchman, Figgins, and Lopez, do not only start hitting when we’re out of it and there’s no pressure. I would not attribute that solely to “luck” (as is popular) but something else.
But not just talking offense, on a whole, it’s not fair to single out those guys because they are playing good defense. Some really bonehead moves/plays/calls and the bullpen have cost us plenty wins.
Sam Regens - May 16, 2010
And about "luck"
I know it’s really popular to bring out the BABIP numbers and saying it’s not his fault someone’s sucking at hitting, it’s just “bad luck”.
But is that really a full analysis, the whole picture? It seems to me that disregarding caught foul balls (which are a small event) when these BABIP “excuses” are brought out, the main argument that some people seem to be making is basically just that Player A ‘s strikeout rate hasn’t increased and therefore he’s having bad luck.
Are Kotchman, Figgins, and Lopez ALL really just the victim of bad luck (well hit balls going directly to fielders) or are some of them making weak contact (even if they are not striking out more)?
That would be their own damn fault and not just bad luck.
Sam Regens - May 16, 2010
Have you been watching the games? Lopez and Kotchman especially have made a ton of line drive outs
Plus, just look at LD rates. Lopez is above his career average, and so is Kotchman. As for Figgins, just read this post.
Griffin Cooper - May 16, 2010
Thanks. You mean, it's really just all "Bad Luck"?? Then we're fucked.
Sam Regens - May 16, 2010
A very good portion of it is bad luck - although I'm not sure how that translates to "we're fucked".
It would be worse if it wasn’t bad luck – bad luck turns around. When your players all suddenly become sustainably bad, that’s when you’re really fucked.
Griffin Cooper - May 16, 2010
"ton of line drive outs". I guess Lopez has had a few, but Kotchman has been a soft roller machine.
Gekko Mojo - May 16, 2010
Kotchman has hit an awful lot of line drives foul.
Eyeball Kid - May 16, 2010
This too, but also line drive outs.
His LD% on the year is at 20.2
Griffin Cooper - May 16, 2010
Another interesting point about this
I bet if there was a stat that kept track of the types of foul balls a player hits, you could successfully pinpoint some young breakout candidates. For example, if a young player consistently hits foul balls right around the foul pole, it would be a good bet that they’ll hit a few more home runs in the future. I don’t know if there is a way to keep track of that right now, though.
I’m digressing again though.
CapSea - May 16, 2010
I've thought about that too - would be nice.
Griffin Cooper - May 16, 2010
I remember Jeff mentioning this before.
But it doesn’t look like it’s kept track of anywhere at the moment.
Mariner John - May 16, 2010
To the eye, Lopez hasn't appeared to hit the ball that hard
seattlebruin - May 17, 2010
He certainly doesn't look to be squaring much up.
abender20 - May 17, 2010
It actually seems like he has been to me
I can recall a good amount of deep/semi-deep line drives to left that have been caught, and his LD rate backs that up
Griffin Cooper - May 17, 2010
What's weird with Lopez is that his peripherals always seem to completely disagree with how he looks to the eye
I think he’s hitting a decent number of liners this year, but he’s turned his warning track/homer popups into grounders to third or short
seattlebruin - May 17, 2010
I'm pretty sure 14-23 is still 14-23 whether it "shoud" be or not
At some point, it is what it is. Cliff Lee will probably having a losing record and a sub-3 ERA in his time as a Mariner. Call me when this team is on pace to score 500 runs over the course of the season.
Aly Edge - May 16, 2010
And now let's all make fun of my typo!
Aly Edge - May 16, 2010
No we'll just make fun of the fact that we're already on pace for over 500 runs
Griffin Cooper - May 16, 2010
Yay! Over 500 runs!
Well that changes everything!~!
Whatever. I’ll, at this point, respect the request for a lack of negativity and go away.
Aly Edge - May 16, 2010
It's not how much of a difference it makes
But when you misquote statistics around here you’ll generally be called on it
Griffin Cooper - May 16, 2010
If we were going to make fun of you it would most likely be for using ERA.
Eyeball Kid - May 16, 2010
We're on pace to score 523 runs.
Mariner John - May 16, 2010
At least we aren't in the AL East!
In Baltimore you can’t even look forward to next year because division re-alignment is much further away than that.
Snowman1025 - May 16, 2010
Exactly right. We are in a rare season when our division is incredibly not real good.
This doesn’t happen every year, but it gives us a chance this year at 14-23 in the middle of May to still see that the season isn’t over yet. We are only 5 1/2 back, and our team is not as bad as the record indicates. We’ve had some bad luck in close games. We can still win the division if things go our way. Baltimore has nothing to look forward to at this point.
TrustBaseball - May 16, 2010
Should we consider moving Figgins to leadoff?
I know he is not hitting worth a lick, but he is still drawing walks and can only regress back to the mean.
Tyler is a G - May 17, 2010
Why bother? What point would it serve?
CapSea - May 17, 2010
Hopefully, doing so would tip the scales of our endless amounts of 1-run games in our favor.
Also, batting in front of a singles master like Ichiro would give Figgins plenty of opportunities to go first to third as he is know for. A walk from Figgins in the #2 slot while Ichiro is on doesn’t provide this one extra base.
Tyler is a G - May 17, 2010
No, but a walk from Figgins with Ichiro on moves Ichiro into scoring position.
JLProck - May 17, 2010
I think I'd flip him and Saunders before I did that
Poochie - May 17, 2010
His OBP on the season so far is .306. While we shouldn't expect this to continue, it doesn't make sense to give him the most at bats on the team like that.
While the difference between 1 and 2 is minor, the point stands.
abender20 - May 17, 2010
Post game Drayer relayed a conversation with Wak discussing moving Figgins to 9th in the order.
She listed some of the points raised in the conversation, reducing his plate appearances, 2nd leadoff, taking some pressure off him. Not offending anyone and not messing with Ichiro.
Kermit. - May 17, 2010
While I don't have an issue with the thought process behind this, the next obvious and problematic question is who do put in the 2 hole?
We’re looking at a situation where, right now, Figgins, SS, C, DH, Choloaf, and Kotch to an extent are not hitting, so that leaves you 3 guys to toy with offensively. Ichiro isn’t going anywhere, and Guti is fine in the 3/4. Saunders isn’t likely as good as he’s been, but I wouldn’t quabble with him getting a few games at 2 while hoping that shifting Figgins to 9th magically fixes him in order to return him to the top. There just aren’t a lot of ways to get creative when you pencil in three guaranteed offensive black holes and have two more that should be hitting better but have looked clueless. Kotchman, whatever. More line drives please.
abender20 - May 17, 2010
Bradley when he comes back or Langerhans now?
Langerhans can get on base at least.
Mariner John - May 17, 2010
Yes to both. As horrible as Rob Johnson is, even he may be a better candidate for DH than Jr.
abender20 - May 17, 2010
As long as the player isn't an automatic GIDP with a higher chance of getting on base than Figgins.
There’s a very limited number of options aren’t there. This is depressing.
Kermit. - May 17, 2010
I think I'm going to give him a month or two
but Casey Kotchman is beginning to look like one of this team’s major problems. He is looking like the same player he has been for years now. Lots of groundballs which leads to no power and since he is not very fast, a low BABIP. His BABIP is going to regress some but his lifetime BABIP is .272.
I was intrigued at first when we have him but at a certain point we need to look at him and realize he might be a replacement level 1B. Its not like we had a backup plan for 1B this year. We were basically hoping that Casey Kotchman had a semi-breakout season if he got consistent playing time. I’m sure Kotchman won’t be this bad all year but I’m more afraid that he is going to turn out to be a below average 1B that we got sucked into believing in.
Edgar for Pres - May 17, 2010
Basically...
If Kotchman doesn’t work out, he’s a 1-1.5 WAR 1B- not exactly replacement level. More like Mike Carp or Eric Hinske, “can play some ball but not very good” level.
We gave up Bill Hall for him. We let him walk in 2011, play Carp or sign a FA. Not a big loss in my book- sometimes you’re going to hit paydirt on these speculative plays (Branyan), sometimes you won’t (Kotchman so far).
eponymous_coward - May 17, 2010
Yeah I messed up the WAR calculation in my head. Forgot to add in the playing time
Lets call him +10 defense but then the 1B adjustment takes that away. Then you have to ask how good is his offense. If you use his career then he’s a below average hitter. So yeah, that’s probably 1-1.5 WAR.
I guess I still feel like 1B is a place we probably missed an opportunity to improve our team by a win or so. Kotchman is cheap so getting him wasn’t bad.
Edgar for Pres - May 17, 2010
Wasn't there pre-season speculation that 1B would be platooned and it didn't materialize?
Kermit. - May 17, 2010
Wak said that there would be no 1B platoon in the last week or so.
JY - May 17, 2010
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Lookout Landing to post a comment.