Lookout Landing

Also bad.

Regressing their wOBAs bumps the team up to a 630 RS pace. We’d probably have three or four more wins, which would be huge right now, but boy the offense has still been bad.

We're on pace to allow 648

I love fast baseball.

Would it be completely statistically invalid...

…for me to look at the 630 figure compared to the 648 figure and project that to a slightly under .500 record for the year (in a very rough sense)?

Not invalid

They’re unsustainable figures, but you probably know that.

Right, but they're unsustainable on both sides, no?

For example, we expect Vargas & Fister to allow more runs than their performance-to-date suggests; just as we expect our offense to score more than their performance-to-date suggests.

All of this is just another way for me to approach the “we’re not as bad as our 2010 record suggests” argument – both because I’m stressed at work and can’t take the time to delve into the deep stats, and because some of the folks I talk to (like my GF) would hit me if I tried to talk about those deep stats!

But runs are easy to talk about – and the ’metrics 101 blog posts related runs to wins…

Fister and Vargas are actually both pitching pretty well

we’d expect them to give up more, but their shiny ERAs aren’t too off – they’ve both thrown some good baseball

seattlebruin - May 18, 2010 reply

ewww...ERA?

I didn’t think we were allowed to use that word around here. FIP and xFIP are much preferred, no? I’ve only been around LL & USSM for 6 months, but I’ve picked up a thing or two!

Yes, but seattlebruin is saying their regression (from ERA to FIP/xFIP/tRA) won't be too harsh.

Wait, pardon me for being a novice at this...

…but wouldn’t it be from FIP to xFIP? I mean, I get (in a rough sense) how FIP & xFIP are adjusted to make the numbers scale similarly to ERA – but if ERA is a bad predictor then why would you compare ERA to FIP/xFIP to determine over/underperformance? Wouldn’t FIP vs. xFIP be a more apples-to-apples comparison?

*predictor - I meant "if ERA is a bad _measure_ of performance"

You juxtapose their ERA and FIP.

If their ERA is say a full three runs under what their FIP should be then you could can tell most of their performance is fielding dependent or luck based and that won’t sustain. However since the gap is not big between their ERA and FIP then they’re performing along the lines they “should” be performing at albeit a little above their heads.

Slurvey - May 18, 2010 reply

You are either over thinking this or under thinking this.

ERA (or RA better yet) records the actual runs allowed and it’s the actual runs that determine wins and losses. You should never use ERA (or RA) to evaluate pitchers. seattlebruin didn’t.

I'm side-thinking this...

…I was considering their performance-to-date versus their historical record (admittedly, more from an “eyeball” level than a detailed stats level). I was not looking at it from a “luck” level, which I guess is where the ERA issue enters in.

I mean, you can have luck not be a factor and still under-perform!

RRS: Rough example

Just to try to explain (and possibly be corrected by you) by way of example, let’s take RRS… Let’s say for argument’s sake that the fielding around him has been decent and good & bad “luck” factors have evened out. But his bad pitching is definitely dragging even his FIP down, right? If you looked at his expected FIP (xFIP) from the beginning of the season, you’d say he’s horribly under-performing when compared to his projections for the year, no?

In this case ERA and FIP should be similar – but the most direct comparison is still FIP versus xFIP, right?

If RRS “regresses” then we’d expect his FIP to come more in-line with his xFIP, right? It doesn’t just apply to things like “luck factors” – or am I mis-using the concept?

SB said "their shiny ERAs aren't too far off"

He was showing that their ERAs are actually right around their talent level. You are overthinking something that was pretty straight forward.

Overthinking and completely misinterpreting

I realize now the comment was an implicit comparison of FIP and ERA (if not in name then in concept). I took it as a claim that their ERA was not far off of what you’d expect for them on the year – and given their 2009 numbers I would expect them to have given up more runs than they have so far.

Anyways, thanks!

The one that always sticks in my head is Rob Johnson lining out with the bases loaded

Also there was Rajai Davis, but I suppose that one evened out.

http://www.statcorner.com/team.php?team=SEA&year=2010&leag=A_L

Bottom of the fourth, May 2nd

Single, steal, run-scoring single, double. Men on 2nd and 3rd, none out. Lineout, HBP, K, lineout. No more runs score.
And now I’ve just realized we may be thinking of the same game.

Dewey N - May 18, 2010 reply

Casey Kotchman :(

MT Olson - May 18, 2010 reply

Bad luck for a Seattle team!

That’s okay, just stack it over there with…hmm. That section’s full of Mariners ‘77-’94…Seattle Pilots…Husky basketball, no room there…not here, that’s SBXL…this whole wing is jammed with Sonics juju…I think we’re gonna need a bigger boat.

lemonverbena - May 18, 2010 via mobile reply

There's a silver lining

I’ve lost almost 5 pounds from Grifflent. Projecting out over a full season I will be dead by October.

Drew_D - May 18, 2010 reply

Matthew it might be nice in the future if you included their current wRAA or something like that to give a reference frame for how bad batters are currently doing.

Just a thought.

Edgar for Pres - May 18, 2010 reply

*in the chart for each batter

Might take more time than its worth though.

Edgar for Pres - May 18, 2010 reply

Here

Thanks. I was more thinking along the lines that it would just aid the presentation of the data but I can definitely just look it up myself.

Edgar for Pres - May 18, 2010 reply

Matthew, how would one calculate this number for our opponants?

Would there be a reference somewhere?

All the needed info is available on StatCorner

I have another post following tonight covering the league in general however.

Ah, okay. I'll wait for that.

But I’m wondering if there is a place I could look up opposing team batted ball types, ie, the number of line drives against the Mariners. Does that reference exist?

Oh huh, I can just look at our pitcher's data.

Way to go, me.

Why was my comment deleted?

I clearly meant no harm by it. Could someone explain?

zachw10 - May 18, 2010 reply

It was off topic.

Please keep front page posts on topic. If you have off topic things to say, put it in the off topic post.

I believe this sort of thing should be taken up via email

Griffin Cooper - May 18, 2010 reply

Jesus Christ, Kotchman must have fucked a gypsy's daughter or something.

8.3 runs….

JAH - May 18, 2010 reply

The Frogurt is also cursed.

Kenneth Arthur - May 18, 2010 reply

But you get your choice of topping!

OlSalty - May 18, 2010 reply

The toppings are also cursed.

Drew_D - May 18, 2010 reply

Only if they're offensive toppings?

(sorry, I couldn’t resist)

The dead memes contain potassium benzoate

God thank you

OlSalty - May 18, 2010 reply

I have been trying to get someone to successully carry out the entire quote for years and it still has not happened

OlSalty - May 18, 2010 reply

Using woBAr to look for breakout candidates looks like fun.

Griffey’s wOBAr in 2009 was .360 =(. It would be nice if the entire Mariner lineup was not considered a breakout candidate.

It is difficult for me to consider his deal as bad luck.

Bad luck for us he’s on the team I guess.

Kermit. - May 18, 2010 reply

Well he's been abysmal this year.

But a .360 wOBAr last year is nothing to sneeze at. I’m guessing it’s not properly weighted since he was on a clear decline phase making three year averages less valuable, but hey, it would make some sense that someone didn’t think he was dead.

He was a league average hitter last year with a .220 BABIP

Which was pretty out of the blue. Griffey didn’t decline, he fell off a cliff

That does it: I wanna see a "Cliff-Diving Junior" bobblehead!

…who knew he would make Sexson’s decline look less-distasteful?

You really don't need to put the "..." before your comment every time.

Kinda nit-picky for a guy with "..." in his signature

:-) But yes, I see it’ll get annoying fast.

I think you're agreeing with me but I can't tell and I worry I'm missing something.

Agreeing.

Just noting that his “decline phase” has been more | than \

FUCK THIS

Dewey N - May 18, 2010 reply

so Griffey is not bad, just unlucky?

Thank the Christ.

Gekko Mojo - May 18, 2010 via mobile reply

He's still bad.