Seattle: 15-26
San Diego: 24-17
| MARINERS | Δ Ms | PADRES | EDGE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HITTING (wOBA) |
-41.7(29th) | -1.8 | -10.6 (21st) | San Diego |
| FIELDING (?) | 19.3 (3rd) | 2.0 | 28.5 (1st) | San Diego |
| ROTATION (tRA) |
-1.6 (19th) | 2.1 | 5.2 (13th) | San Diego |
| BULLPEN (tRA) |
-2.8 (21st) | 0.7 | 14.1 (3rd) | San Diego |
| OVERALL(RAA) |
-26.8 (23rd) | 3.0 | 37.2 (6th) | SAN DIEGO |
Wooo, a win! It's easy to get discouraged by how far under .500 the Mariners are, but as the feeling after those rare wins can indicate, there's still some hope. Maybe not hope that the team will rally enough to make the playoffs, but hope that they can rally enough to play entertaining baseball. If the Mariners played the rest of the season at a .520 pace, would you be upset? They would end the year at 78-84 at that pace but would win 63 of their remaining 121 games. It wouldn't be what we hoped for a couple months ago, but I might be satisfied with it right now.
That's getting too far ahead of ourselves though. We, and the Mariners, just need to take it one game at a time. And make sure to win that one game. And then the next. And so on. Based on the last 24 hours, the Mariners are projected to finish 136-26 so I don't see much reason to feel down.
In the interest of platoon advantages, I expect to see Milton Bradley in left field for at least the first two games of this series and since Wakamatsu probably will not want to bench Griffey for the entire home series, I'm not optimistic about Bradley getting a DH start on Sunday either. Assuming that Griffey needs to start at least one game I hope he starts tonight so that Michael Saunders and/or Ryan Langerhans can find themselves some playing time this series.
There's not a single pitcher I would rather have available to face a middling lineup when we could really use another win to try and build some happy thoughts in the clubhouse. Cliff Lee should dice up the Padres. They're not a fearsome offense and their only imposing hitter, Adrian Gonzalez, suffers mightily against left handers.
Which might have made this a decent opportunity for Ryan Rowland-Smith instead of Ian Snell, but there's something clearly off with RR-S and he might be better served spending time trying to figure that out rather than spending time scouting Padre hitters in preparation for a start. Ian Snell returns to the rotation after a handful of decently productive innings in relief. Was there any difference, any improvement, for Snell as a reliever? Yes, a small one. He threw more strikes and as a result dramatically cut down on his walks. It's a stupidly small sample, but if Snell can carry that improved control over into the rotation, he stands a chance at being serviceable.
Wade LeBlanc is not a big strike thrower, nor a great ground ball guy. His change up is just good enough to be a weapon against right handers which is good because he's actually been atrocious against left-handers throughout his career. While LeBlanc has limited right-handed hitters to a .732 OPS for his career, southpaws have posted an .890 OPS against him. The 86-mph fastball might have something to do with that.
Richard can get it up with a little more oomph and though he shares LeBlanc's tendencies for avoiding the strike zone, he diverges with more ground balls and fewer missed bats. Hopefully the Mariners can work some walks against him and avoid hitting into too many double plays.
Mat Latos is the actual talent of the bunch. He's been on a roll his last three starts with a combined 20 strikeouts in 23 innings with just one walk issued. if that continues, the Mariners are going to need early season Felix to step up and keep them in the ballgame until the bullpens take over and then aww crap.
| Cliff Lee | Ian Snell | Felix Hernandez | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Wade LeBlanc | Clayton Richard | Mat Latos | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0 recs | 26 comments
I used to look forward to playing the Padres
calim - May 21, 2010
Records and matchups be damned, I'm going to hold onto my irrational and foolhardy position that the National League (especially the Padres) are just naturally inferior.
Even though I know it’s not true, especially right now.
sanford_and_son - May 21, 2010
Based on the wOBAr table in the Thinking More About Luck post, the Padres have been slightly lucky offensively.
They’re only at +4.5 runs, so they’re certainly playing closer to their TTL than the M’s. But the RS* totals for the Padres and the Mariners are 633 and 631 respectively. We don’t need the Mariners to play over their heads this weekend. Just some regression.
As much as performance to date should scare me, I think this series is eminently winnable. Let’s do this.
harkening - May 21, 2010
Its the Padres guys.
The Padres.
Punkhazard - May 21, 2010
Ah yes, our hated rivals.
Let’s crush ’em. >:(
harkening - May 21, 2010
I love seeing Felix and Lee in the same series.
It sucks that it probably will only happen for one year. Prospects be damned, I want LEE!
Kenneth Arthur - May 21, 2010
Early
Torjazz - May 21, 2010
Both Cliff and Felix in a series
Buoyed by yesterday’s break from soul-numbing suckitude, I am capable of excitement at imagining the Padres’ feelings about having to face that 1-2 punch. In that thinking, I guess Snell is either the taunting wind up or a couple of wild haymakers off the mark.
Torjazz - May 21, 2010
Late
Torjazz - May 21, 2010
I think a picture might help preview this series
LonelyintheBleachers - May 21, 2010
So the winsome young lass is regression?
BrownL - May 21, 2010
Yes
No. This is great literature. Go deeper.
LonelyintheBleachers - May 21, 2010
The Mariners are trapped on a boat with a Bengal tiger?
CapSea - May 21, 2010
No.
The Mariners are the tiger.
harkening - May 21, 2010
But what of the Meerkats?
There is a huge hole in your theory.
CapSea - May 21, 2010
.
Meerkats, you say?
Eyeball Kid - May 21, 2010
We're boned, aren't we?
I mean, more boned than usual.
PDXTai - May 21, 2010
Cliff Lee! Felix!
harkening - May 21, 2010
They should have a cage match over the one run scored between both games.
SOLD OUT STADIUM
Kermit. - May 21, 2010
Cliff Lee! Snell. Felix!
BrianL - May 21, 2010
I now have to really avoid the person who two weeks into the season I told:
“The Padres suck and aren’t for real and the Mariners are going to be very good this year”
Kenneth Arthur - May 21, 2010
You know it's a strange season when you're not looking forward to playing the Padres.
Eyeball Kid - May 21, 2010
Kershaw made Gonzalez look pretty bad last night
I’m excited to see what Cliff Lee does to him.
bluemax - May 21, 2010
Baseball Ref has sortable WAR team numbers now for hitters/fielders (pitchers coming soon I guess)
here. Mariners hitters/fielders on pace for around 17 WAR. Fangraphs says we should be on pace for about half of that. Big difference is Rally’s WAR thinks our defense is +19 runs and UZR thinks we are +7.
Edgar for Pres - May 21, 2010
Did you know that the Mariners lead the league easily in pinch hitter leverage
We are at 2.74 and the average is around 1.5. Probably because of all the close games we have since nobody scores. Maybe we should get good bench players that can hit.
Edgar for Pres - May 21, 2010
No, what a stupid idea.
Do you think we want to win games?
Mariners121212 - May 22, 2010
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